Earlier today President Trump sent a warning tweet about Apple possibly incurring tariffs on their products if they continue a plan for manufacturing in China.  Later in the day the president answered direct questions about those possible tariffs.
Additionally, Secretary Wilbur Ross was very insightful when he also spoke of the current U.S. perspective toward the U.S-China trade negotiation.  If you have followed the basic road-map of America-First, there’s a very clear picture; however, most pundits and trade analysts will likely ignore the message.

Subtle as a brick through a window…. yet it’s amazing how many people can’t see it.
Secretary Ross warned the professional investment class that the current objective for Secretary Mnuchin and USTR Lighthizer is to find out if Beijing is willing to re-engage from the starting point where they left-off when talks collapsed.  That’s a big tell.
After several phone calls and staff contacts if the U.S. team doesn’t know the answer to that question, well, there’s almost zero likelihood of any optimistic outlook.  In essence, the only value within the current engagement is financial ‘optics’ to stabilize markets.
It has been clear -validated by the G20 outcome- that President Trump is not going to accept anything less than a full and complete structural change in the U.S. trade position with China.  Lighthizer’s severe compliance and enforcement clauses, specific to each unique trade sector, are non-negotiable.
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President Trump ‘unexpectedly‘ negotiated a major asylum deal with the government of Guatemala.  In a surprise announcement on Friday President Trump invited the press into the oval office where Guatemalan Interior Minister Enrique Degenhart and acting Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kevin McAleenan were gathered in advance.

It’s important to remember that President Trump spoke about this on Wednesday during an impromptu presser.  In essence President Trump delivered an offer/threat at the end of several months of negotiations.  REMINDER:

Q What are you going to do about Guatemala? Guatemala. What are you going to do about Guatemala?
THE PRESIDENT: So, Guatemala gave us their word. We were going to sign a safe third agreement and then, all of a sudden, they backed up. They said it was their supreme court. I don’t believe that. But they use their supreme court as the reason they didn’t want to do it.
So we’ll either do tariffs or we’ll do something. We’re looking at something very severe with respect to Guatemala. I’ve already cut all payments; I did that a year ago. I cut all payments going to Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala. We used to send them $500 million for nothing. For nothing. They didn’t do anything except set up caravans.
So, Guatemala we’re going to take care of and it won’t even be tough. We’re going to do — we’re looking at a couple of different things. ~ Wednesday July 24th, 2019.

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CNBC pundits use the drop in exports to attack the GDP result as Larry Kudlow appears to discuss the overall picture. The knuckleheaded pundits point to tariffs as the reason for the drop in exports without even contemplating (Mamet Principle) the devaluation and subsidies from foreign countries that have driven up the value of the dollar.
While currency manipulation/devaluing (EU and China) drops the prices of their export goods, their devaluation drives up the value of the dollar.  The first impact from a high valued dollar is that it causes our export products to increase in price.  This drops our exports, and can be a drag on the GDP growth rate.  Pundits are intentionally obtuse.

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My advice to President Trump: “Tariff the bastards; all of them” !!
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Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appears with Charles Payne to discuss the latest economic data and the Q2 GDP release.  Within the interview Secretary Ross explains the information behind the data; the status of the USMCA and Pelosi’s motives to delay ratification; the baseline for the U.S-China trade discussions, and the position of the administration to advance the economic interests of the U.S. above all others.

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The second quarter Gross Domestic Product growth result will be released tomorrow.  The Q2 GDP growth rate is historically the worst quarter of the year.  A growth rate higher than 1.5 percent will be a strong indicator the U.S. economy remains on track for a cumulative year of around three percent.

In the latest economic releases the orders for durable goods “unexpectedly” jumped in June [2 percent], again indicating the overall strength of the U.S. economy and strong consumer purchasing.  Additionally the trade in goods deficit “unexpectedly” declined 1.2 percent in June as more manufacturers “surprisingly” shift production back to the U.S, and domestic consumers are “unexpectedly” loyal to USA.
Every economic indicator is positive, and each series of released data shows the U.S. economy is increasingly strong.  Despite the empirical data, media reporting on economic forecasts continue to convey a negative slant disconnected from what is happening.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – New orders for key U.S.-made capital goods surged in June, suggesting some improvement in business investment, but economic growth is still expected to have slowed sharply in the second quarter amid weaker exports and a smaller inventory build.

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This is funny.  No, really, it is actually funny.  Yesterday the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its outlook of the global economy.  If you read the IMF prior “dire forecast” from July 17th –yes, only a week ago– you’ll discover the humor aspect.
The IMF is now upgrading their forecast of U.S. economic growth; and admitting -in essence- that President Trump’s America-First agenda is relocating global wealth back to the primary host nation known as the U.S.A.   The increase in their forecast isn’t a small increase, it is essentially adding .3 percent (from 2.3% to 2.6%) or $60 billion more.

However, you’d have to go through two-thirds of the Reuters press coverage of the IMF release; and plow through a littany of doom and gloom; before you found this obscure reference: “The IMF raised its forecast for U.S. economic growth to 2.6% in 2019, but left its 2020 forecast for 1.9% growth unchanged.”   Apparently the economic team at Reuters has a sad… harrumph!
Even the Washington Post, despite their earnest efforts, couldn’t actually put a negative spin on the new IMF projection:
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As the week begins, it’s worthwhile reemphasizing the value of President Trump, and how the focused, albeit at times pragmatic, policy is received by the larger U.S. electorate.   This interview is representative of the silent majority voice; some silent no more:

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The underlying reality behind these words from a Michigan voter is exactly why the media need to have redoubled their efforts of opposition. President Trump is simply succeeding, despite the enormous scale of manufactured political opposition.
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Excellent interview by Charles Payne as White House Manufacturing Policy Advisor Peter Navarro outlines how the strategic road map of MAGAnomics is converging.  If you want to see the future, listen to how Navarro outlines what’s coming.
The six MAGAnomic components to pay attention to include: ♦changes to the Universal Postal Union (UPU); ♦HUD Opportunity Zones; ♦America First raw material policy for infrastructure; ♦retail sales strength; ♦the current status of the U.S-China negotiations; and ♦the USMCA ratification.

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♦The UPU was one of those archaic policy issues set-up with good intentions, and then maintained by ‘stupid’ politicians well after it should have been renegotiated.  It’s good to hear that mess is coming to an end in October.
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An article from Reuters discussing the position of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is interesting.   Essentially the IMF is warning that “global economies” will contract by $455 billion next year due to the ongoing trade conflict between the U.S., China, the EU and to a lesser extent, Japan.  Yes Alice, there are hundreds of billions at stake.
There’s really no reason to doubt the amount estimated, though I think it’s on the short side, but the yearly value seems in line.  I have no doubt President Trump will cost the “Global Economy” $455 billion…. because that money will be transferring back to the America First economy. That’s what happens as MAGAnomics reverses the IMF trade (wealth distribution) model.

The IMF is correct in part (the effect), incorrect in part (the cause), and mostly hypocritical.  The Euro-minded IMF rails against the high value of the U.S. dollar, but simultaneously ignores the motives behind the intentional devaluation of currencies that are pegged against the dollar.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday the U.S. dollar was overvalued by 6% to 12%, based on near-term economic fundamentals, while the euro, the Japanese yen and China’s yuan were seen as broadly in line with fundamentals.

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This is one of my favorite changes in executive governance since a ‘People’s President’ won the 2016 election.  President Trump is the FIRST U.S. President to allow the American people to see the workings of an administrative cabinet.  President Trump has done this so frequently people have stopped recognizing the incredible level of transparency.
President Trump uses these cabinet meetings to inform the electorate what is happening and also work around the manipulative presentations by DC media:

…”And if the press wants to stay, you can. If you’d like to leave — it’s like I said the other day: I don’t mind. If you want to leave, that’s your option. You can leave anytime you want, okay?”…

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[Transcript]  THE PRESIDENT: Thank you very much. Our Cabinet meeting. And we’ll start with a prayer, please. Rick Perry.
SECRETARY PERRY: Yes, sir. Mr. President, thank you. Just as a — to put this all in perspective: On the 4th of July, I had a prayer that came true, which is a good thing — to pray and for the good Lord to agree that your prayer is a good one.
So Griffin James Perry came into the world on the 4th of July, at about 8:10 in the morning. So I have a grandson.
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