Earlier today President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump welcomed the President of the Republic of Ecuador and Mrs. Rocio Gonzales De Moreno to the White House.
Ecuador is a key country for stability in central America.  A key topic of discussion between the two leaders will be Venezuela.  Ecuador is suffering firsthand the effects of Nicolas Maduro and his dictatorship in Venezuela with waves of economic migrants from Venezuela arriving through Colombia to Ecuador.   The refugee crisis represents a fiscal strain and also a security threat. There are 400,000 Venezuela refugees in Ecuador.

Counter-narcotics and a trade agreement are also a priority for this meeting. The United States and Ecuador are very close to a free trade agreement. USTR Robert Lighthizer has held a successful round-one negotiation for trade and investment with the Ecuadorian Commerce Ministry; and a second round is likely very soon.

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Ecuador and the United States are working toward an energy and infrastructure framework agreement under America Crece.  Brazil is likely to join in March and they will join Panama, Chile, Argentina, Jamaica, Colombia, El Salvador, and hopefully Ecuador.

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Earlier today President Trump hosted a business luncheon with U.S. governors to discuss economic expansion and administration policy efforts to assist the states.
[Video and Transcript Below]

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[Transcript] – THE PRESIDENT: Wow. Thank you. Thank you. (Applause.) Thank you very much. Thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you. It’s a great honor to have you at the White House, a very special place. Beautiful and so meaningful in so many ways. And our country has never done better. You’re all doing really well. Every state is doing well. I can say most every state in the room today is setting records. And we’d like to think that the federal government has been helping you a lot.
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Senator Tim Scott appears with Maria Bartiromo to discuss how President Trump delivers on his promises and relentlessly achieves results despite opposition. Senator Scott was the architect of the ‘Opportunity Zones’ policy to deliver private investment incentives for distressed communities. As noted in the interview, one of the outcomes from that successful initiative is an eight percent increase in wages within the zone. Good stuff.
During the segment discussing the State of the Union, Senator Scott notes the conduct of Speaker Pelosi was not the tearing of a speech, it was “the shredding a reality that this nation continues to rise to the occasion and we do it consistently.”   Discussing the fraudulently created impeachment; and the House effort to hide the ICIG testimony; the senator from South Carolina notes: “it’s a shame because it’s a sham.”

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White House trade and manufacturing policy advisor Peter Navarro appears on Fox News to discuss the strong January jobs report of 225,000 gains.  Navarro highlights something few pay attention to.  The Trump administration not only focuses on the macro policy principles to create the economic environment for job growth, but President Trump also personally engages on specific company, state, and regional efforts.
The engagement of a U.S. president to discuss and influence U.S. jobs on a company by company basis, and get down in the details of deals, is a completely unique political standard in the modern era.  President Trump is very uniquely fighting for each job.

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It is very disappointing to hear vulture capitalist Jeff Bezos having a disinterest in protecting American intellectual property rights, and instead choosing to accept/allow cheap Chinese, knock-off goods as the backbone of his Amazon business model.
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National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow appears on Fox Business to discuss the excellent January jobs report.  Job gains and wage increases are all going in the right direction…. And Stuart Varney immediately asks: “do we need more immigration”?

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BLS Wage growth chart below [Table B3].
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President Trump will deliver his third State of the Union address tonight to a joint session of Congress.  The anticipated start time is 9:00pm Eastern.  Livestream links below:
UPDATE: Video Added

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Even before the Coronavirus surfaced in China there was lower manufacturing factory activity within the Chinese economy.  The necessary response within China to control the spread of the Coronavirus has been to shut down most commerce.  Factories, schools &  businesses throughout China are empty as various containment measures are underway.

The direct result of this response is a severe drop in economic activity.  Many analysts are speculating about how this cessation of production might impact supply chains that use Chinese component goods.  Obviously, with manufacturing facilities closed any downstream multinational company relying on those products may have supply issues as soon as existing inventories deplete.
There is a natural lag before the manufacturing void hits the consumer market; however, the financial markets are forward looking and they are already reflecting severe drops in stock prices, depending on the dependency/exposure of the company and/or sector.

BEIJING/SHANGHAI (Reuters) – Chinese stock and commodity markets fell heavily on Monday as the death toll from a coronavirus epidemic in China rose to 361 and investors retreated into safe-haven assets in the first trading session after an extended Lunar New Year break.

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As we start to head deeper into the 2020 presidential election year, there is some very good news for President Trump about how Americans rate their satisfaction; and some very bad news for Democrats who are trying to impeach this success.
According to the latest data from Gallup: “Americans’ average satisfaction rating for the 27 issues Gallup has tracked consistently since 2001 is now 47%. This is up three points from a year ago and is the highest since the January 2005 poll.”
In the measures of satisfaction covering the first three years of President Trump in office there are some remarkable increases in key measures:

(data link)

As President Trump prepares to deliver his State of the Union speech to congress, these results will likely provide some measurable data for him to highlight.  Satisfaction with the U.S. economy has jumped a whopping 22 percent since President Trump took office.
As noted above, the economy, national security, military and state of race relations all provide double-digit increases in American satisfaction during President Trump’s first three years in office.
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Earlier today President Trump traveled to Dana Incorporated, a manufacturing facility for axel housings and machined products in Warren, Michigan, to celebrate the signing of the USMCA trade agreement with American workers.  [Video and Transcript Below]

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[Transcript] – THE PRESIDENT: Okay, let’s get back to work. Come on. (Applause.) I love that song, but every once in a while, we have to get back to work. (Laughter.)

So I am very honored to be at Dana Incorporated, a tremendous company, a plant in Warren, Michigan. We’re very proud of Michigan. (Applause.) Dana has been around — I also like it because we happened to win here, so I was very happy with that. (Applause.) Very happy with that.

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The Bureau of Economic Analysis released their first estimate of Q4 GDP growth today.  The BEA first estimate is 2.1 percent growth for the fourth quarter and 2.3 percent growth for the year. [Data Here]   The U.S. economy is now approximately $21.7 trillion.
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appeared on Fox Business with Maria Bartiromo to discuss the ‘big picture’ outlook for the U.S. economy.  Strong employment, strong wage growth, strong consumer spending, and now the USMCA passage delivering the backdrop for domestic capital investment.   Good interview:

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The headwinds by Boeing and the GM strike had some negative impact.  However, 2019 was dominated by Wall Street multinational investors taking the ‘wait-n-see’ position on the China/Asia -vs- USMCA trade dynamic (manufacturing investment) overall.
The USMCA passage gives certainty to North American manufacturing investment.  The China ‘phase-one’ agreement allows time for re-positioning, and/or time to extract profits from prior investment.  A corporate decision to manufacture in China is now based on an entirely different set of considerations than 24 months ago…. ‘phase-one’ buys time but doesn’t reduce the long-term risk.  North America is now the place for investment stability.
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