Those who followed the first-term trade negotiations will likely remember the challenges of dealing with the European Union and their entrenched dependency on retaining the Marshall Plan system; a one-way tariff process that enabled Europe to rebuild after World War II.

Unfortunately, as with all long-term financial subsidies, the beneficiary becomes dependent and retaining benefit is their only objective.

Former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross spent the majority of his time focused on trying to negotiate with the EU to remove these ridiculous trade benefits that have long exhausted their usefulness.  Enough is enough.

Term-two Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has the same regional assignment formerly held by Wilbur Ross, with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in full support.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has ASEAN nations as his primary regional focus, Lutnick’s primary region is the EU and President Trump is personally attentive to China and the USMCA.  USTR Greer then goes to the primary with the closest deal under consideration and organizes the paper construct, the technical aspects.  It’s an overall similar arrangement to term-1 only with a much bigger scope.

As would be expected from historic reference points in trying to break this insufferable one-way Marshall Plan system, the EU is once again operating in bad faith and will not give up their status.  When President Trump says the entire reason for the EU to form was to ensure their retention of this Marshall Plan benefit, he’s not wrong.  That’s the brutally honest background.

President Trump has announced today that a 50% tariff rate will be applied toward all EU imports until such a time as they come to the negotiation process willing to let go of their economic model dependent on the one-way benefit.  There really is no other way to break the Gordian trade knot, other than to cut it – forcefully.

President Trump (via Truth Social) – “The European Union, which was formed for the primary purpose of taking advantage of the United States on TRADE, has been very difficult to deal with. Their powerful Trade Barriers, Vat Taxes, ridiculous Corporate Penalties, Non-Monetary Trade Barriers, Monetary Manipulations, unfair and unjustified lawsuits against Americans Companies, and more, have led to a Trade Deficit with the U.S. of more than $250,000,000 a year, a number which is totally unacceptable. Our discussions with them are going nowhere! Therefore, I am recommending a straight 50% Tariff on the European Union, starting on June 1, 2025. There is no Tariff if the product is built or manufactured in the United States. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appears on NBC Meet the Press to discuss the current status of the trade negotiations, tariffs and pending trade deals. In addition, Secretary Bessent outlines the construct of President Trump’s tax proposals and the intended benefits therein to middle-class working Americans.  WATCH (Transcript Below) 

[Transcript] KRISTEN WELKER: Welcome back. There are new economic warnings after the credit ratings agency, Moody’s, downgraded the United States’ credit rating one notch from its AAA rating. Moody’s citing concerns over the nation’s rising debt. It comes as President Trump’s tax bill suffered a setback in Congress this past week. Joining me now is Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Secretary Bessent, welcome back to Meet the Press.

SEC. SCOTT BESSENT: Kristen, good to see you. Thanks for having me on.

KRISTEN WELKER: It’s wonderful to have you on after a long foreign trip. Thank you for being here. Let’s start right there with Moody’s downgrading the nation’s credit rating. And they do cite the debt. I want to read you a little bit of what Moody’s says. It says, quote, “If the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is extended, which is our base case, it will add around $4 trillion to the deficit over the next decade.” Several Republicans, Mr. Secretary, are citing similar concerns. Does the president’s tax bill need to do more to address the nation’s debt and deficit?

SEC. SCOTT BESSENT: Well, Kristen, first – first of all, I – I think that Moody’s is a lagging indicator. I think that’s what everyone thinks of credit agencies. Larry Summers and I don’t agree on everything, but he said that’s when they – they downgraded the U.S. in 2011. So it’s – it’s a lagging indicator. And just like Sean Duffy said with our air traffic control system, we didn’t get here in the – in the past 100 days. It’s the Biden administration and the spending that we have – have seen over the past four years. We inherited 6.7% deficit to GDP, the highest when we weren’t in a recession, not in a war. And we are determined to bring the spending down and grow the economy.

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President Donald Trump sits down with Bret Baier to discuss the results of his trip to the middle east.  President Trump discusses investments in America, trade negotiations, the ongoing discussions with Iran and plans to solve the conflict between Hamas and Israel in Gaza.

President Trump outlines Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as an “angry man,” albeit rightly angered by the attack on Israel on October 7th. President Trump’s remarks about Iran come as the Iranian regime is beginning to indicate a willingness to concede to Trump’s requirements.  It’s all about the economics of the thing, the Trump Doctrine.  WATCH:

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THE TRUMP DOCTRINE – What you will notice from President Trump’s responses to questions during foreign leader engagements is the unique nature of his honesty.   In the most consequential of ways, President Trump is the most consequential foreign policy leader in generations.   We forget that during Trump’s first term in office, the headlines about North and South Korea were not about conflict, but rather about the possibility of unification on the Korean peninsula.

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A meeting between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin brings with it the focus of the entire world.  For a myriad of geopolitical reasons both domestically and abroad, there are ‘trillion-dollar’ interests who want to keep them apart.

Earlier today, fearing that President Trump might actually travel to Turkey, NATO Secretary Mark Rutte and Senator Lindsey Graham quickly arranged dispatch to intercept and participate.  The global intelligence apparatus wants to keep Trump and Putin apart, so too does the NATO alliance, the CIA, the U.K and every other influence agent in partial control of the USA proxy war against Russia using Ukraine.

A decade of carefully scripted narratives against President Trump and any forward leaning Russian foreign policy sits in the background, with an almost incalculable number of opposition elements aligned against President Trump forming any positive USA-Russia relationship.  There’s quite literally almost no place on the planet where President Trump and Vladimir Putin could meet without hearing the drumbeat of opposition against their assembly.  Almost….

For President Trump and Vladimir Putin to join in strategic interest is to disrupt the global order of things, and I do mean everything.  The military industrial complex, the global banking system, the World Economic Forum assembly, the multinational stock markets, the world trade system, the entire European continent, Asian continent, Australian continent, African continent and North American continent, as well as every conflict therein, could be impacted by joint decisions between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump.  To say the stakes are high, would be to understate the scale of the dynamic.

In this interview, Secretary of State Marco Rubio seems to nurture the seeds placed by President Trump in his earlier remarks about sitting down with Vladimir Putin to hammer out the details of a ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia.  The entire world pretends not to know that all of the military engagement within Ukraine and around Ukraine, is essentially a proxy war between the USA and Russia. A potential meeting between President Trump and Vladimir Putin destroys that framework.  This is heavy stuff.  WATCH:

Keep in mind that President Trump has been speaking to Vladimir Putin directly via phone, and consequentially through his emissary Steven Witkoff.  Vladimir Putin has been speaking to President Trump through the same channel.

A face-to-face meeting was always going to happen, the only part of the dynamic we were awaiting was how the two presidents were going to coordinate the meeting of consequence, and how would President Trump ditch the U.S. control elements.

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Wait,… wha?  Prices were supposed to skyrocket, so said the experts, pundits, Wall Street analysts and all the ‘talking heads.’  Alas, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) releases the April consumer price index [SEE HERE] and, shocker, prices on the critical consumer goods that matter most are dropping.

The rate of inflation dropped to a four-year low in April. Overall consumer prices increased 2.3% from a year earlier, down from 2.4% rise in March.  However, inside the number’s things get better.  Prices for groceries, food at home including eggs, used cars and gasoline all fell.

Meats, poultry and eggs dropped 1.6% overall.  The price of eggs dropped 12.7% for the month. [SEE TABLE 2]   Fuel Oil dropped 2.6%, propane dropped 4.7%.  If it’s a food product grown and harvested in America, the price dropped.  Remember that popular boycott by the Canadians on Orange Juice and citrus from Florida?  Oranges dropped 3.7% in price for American consumers; Citrus overall -2.8%.

The items that are critical to a middle-class or working-class family, all dropped in price.  This is exactly the same pricing outcome we experienced in 2017 that continued for two years.   Energy prices drive farm prices and the total food supply chain; the energy prices have dropped substantially since President Trump took office.

Keep an eye on the “Relative Importance Index” [first column table, 2], because this is where the BLS statisticians will start to play with the data in order to stop President Trump from getting credit for lower prices.  The BLS manipulating this index point is why CTH stopped using their data reports in 2022.  Many people were perplexed at the end of 2021 when suddenly the inflation data no longer made sense.  The BLS changed the priority weighting in order to assist Biden.

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Appearing on CNBC this morning, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent gives an outline of the discussions between the USA and China.  Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer held meetings with the Chinese delegation in Geneva, Switzerland this past weekend.

Pay attention to Secretary Bessent describing [05:40] how Chinese ‘overproduction’ is now reaching the shores of partnered nations, that is the element CTH previously outlined {SEE HERE}, which is a rather significant issue right now.  The goods themselves are not ‘generic’ in nature, they are branded high-end products awaiting labeling and distribution once their component part of the global tariff is determined.  This is part of the ‘urgency’ motive for Beijing to seek some understanding of the timeline.

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As expected by anyone with common sense, the statement by Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng is considerably different from the U.S. media interpretation of the White House statement.

According to He Lifeng: […] “The atmosphere of the meeting was candid, in-depth and constructive. The meeting reached substantial progress and achieved important consensus. The two sides agreed on establishing a consultation mechanism for trade and economic issues, identified the lead persons on each side, and will carry on further consultations relating to trade and economic issues of their respective concerns. The two sides will finalize relevant details as soon as possible and will issue a joint statement reached on May 12.”

[…] “China’s position towards this trade war has been clear and consistent; that is, China doesn’t want to fight a trade war, because trade wars produce no winners.  But if the U.S. insists on forcing this war upon us, China will not be afraid of it and will fight to the end.” 

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This ‘clarification‘ of sorts by Big Panda should not come as a surprise, despite the White House press release and the wording of the title.

Neither Secretary Bessent nor USTR Greer would make an announcement of a “trade deal” in advance of President Trump’s personal announcement. PERIOD!

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White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett always does a good job of framing the current status without impeding the negotiating strategy of the White House trade delegation.

In this morning’s interview, happy Hassett outlines the motivation for China to quickly get to an agreement on principle about their U.S. trade position, and the structure of the personnel who are present on Beijing’s behalf to organize the discussion.  As noted earlier, Bessent and Greer were very careful in their language to promote positive advancement of agreement to the framework but avoid calling the outcome of the discussions a completed deal.

Hassett encapsulates the current trade status with China and other nations.  WATCH:

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No doubt President Trump is leaning back a little following the White House statement.  The Chinese announcements are not as forcefully positive as the White House ‘headline’ press release.  There’s a disconnect afoot that needs to be reconciled quickly or it makes the White House look weak while cunning panda smiles.

It would be surprising to see an actual “trade agreement” with China, before the commitments from ASEAN countries to stop transnational shipping exploitation are in place.

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The White House has released a statement headlining: “U.S. Announces China Trade Deal in Geneva.” However, the use of the wording “trade deal” is being disputed by China who prefer to say, a “consensus was reached.”

Indeed, if you listen to the wording from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Rep Jamieson Greer, there is no talk of an actual deal in their language. Methinks whoever wrote the White House headline, that is (not accidentally) currently manipulating the markets, will be soon given the exit. Here’s the remarks from Bessent and Greer:

The White House statement is below:

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The background IS HERE and seemingly doesn’t change much.  President Trump notes in an announcement via Truth Social that “GREAT PROGRESS MADE.”

The terms “total reset” and “opening up of China” are noteworthy.

[SOURCE]

Praise for the Panda face is always part of the “art of the deal’ dynamic.

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