India is now facing a 50% import tariff against the majority of their goods (electronics and pharmaceuticals exempted). However, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has vowed not to yield to the pressure. Modi said the world was witnessing a “politics of economic selfishness.”

For approximately a decade many western countries including the U.S. have heaped effusive praise on India as corporations viewed the massive Indian population, the world’s largest democracy, as both workers and consumers.  However, after the western sanctions against Russia were delivered, India -a BRICS nation- began pulling back from western alignment and influence.

Western sanctions map against Russia (yellow = agree with USA).

What we are witnessing now is one of the ramifications of the U.S. forcefully putting an “us or them” aspect into the strategic economic relationship, where “them” is Russia.  Currently, India is not flinching.

One could make the argument that undeveloped regions in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) contain the majority of the valuable rare earth minerals and magnets the ‘western’ nations need for manufacturing.  BRICS has a pressure point to apply leverage, but no global trade currency, if the trade conflict escalates.

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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appears on Fox Business to discuss some very important current issues in the world of finance, banking and trade.

Bessent begins by answering questions about the U.S. government taking equity interests in companies that come to the U.S. for support.  Bessent then notes the potential for the Trump administration to construct a taxpayer stake in Fannie and Freddie, before the Treasury Secretary moves on to talk about the trade issues with India.  WATCH:

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National Economic Council Director, Kevin Hassett, appears on CNBC to discuss the 10% govt stake in Intel, the status on U.S. trade agreements and other economic matters of interest. WATCH:

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CTH noted several months ago, end the Marshall Plan for Europe and things will change quickly.

Germany is in a tight economic place as a result of: (1) former leftist Chancellor Olaf Scholz alignment with climate change policy, radically changing the German energy base and driving up costs; (2) the financial support for Ukraine; (3) the financial burden of mass African/ME migration, and (4) the new Trump-era EU tariffs that effectively end the Marshall Plan.

Put all four elements together and the German economic contraction is only forecast to worsen. This is the reality that current German Chanceller Fredrich Merz is facing. Thus, as a non-pretending former businessman, Merz recently told his party and the German electorate that current financial conditions no longer support the expansive entitlement state.

Pensions, benefits and even healthcare are potentially going to be impacted. Germans are not happy.

GERMANY – The German welfare state is no longer financially sustainable, Friedrich Merz said on Saturday. The chancellor argued for a fundamental reassessment of the benefits system as spending continues to soar past last year’s record of €47bn (£40bn).

In a state-level party conference meeting on Saturday, Mr Merz said: “The welfare state as we have it today can no longer be financed with what we can economically afford.”

Once the export champion of Europe, Germany’s economy has slowed dramatically since 2017, with GDP growing by only 1.6 per cent since then versus 9.5 per cent for the rest of the eurozone.

Germany’s economy shrank by 0.2 per cent last year following a 0.3 per cent dip in 2023 – the first time since the early 2000s the economy has retreated two years in a row.

Industrial production fell under the Left-leaning “traffic light” coalition of Olaf Scholz and continues to slide under the new government, with GDP declining by 0.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2025.

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The Canadian govt led by Prime Minister Mark Carney has completely capitulated to the power and influence of President Trump.

While explaining how the United States has fundamentally changed the entire landscape of global trade, the leader of the Snow Mexicans announces he is dropping all countervailing and retaliatory tariffs against the USA and getting nothing in return.  Total and complete surrender by Canada; there is ZERO upside for Canada – NADA, Zippo, Zilch.

Prime Minister Mark Carney made the announcement, then faced the ire of the assembled media who were furious about the details within the statement.  The Canadian people had been promised an “elbows up” fight to the end. Instead, today they got down on their knees and begged Trump to retain the USMCA.

Complete and utter capitulation by Canada. No digital services taxes. No countervailing duty tariffs. No reciprocity tariffs on Steel and Aluminum. No retaliatory tariffs (reciprocal/baseline). Meanwhile, the USA keeps 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum against Canada, and Canada only gets 25% tariffs against U.S. steel/aluminum.

In addition, Canada has pledged to continue gaslighting their citizens, while wasting time, effort and resources on a hope to retain the USMCA, while refusing to admit to themselves that President Trump intends to dissolve it. WATCH:

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If that recap sounds bad for Canada, trust me – it’s way worse.  Really bad, horrible – terrible even.  So far beyond bad, the light from where horrible starts could not reach the Canadian terrible place for a year.  Not good.  😊

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Vice President JD Vance appears on Fox News with Maria Bartiromo to discuss current geopolitical events around the Ukraine-Russia conflict and the Israel-Gaza conflict.

In the second segment of the interview (11:00 point), Vice President Vance gives his opinion on the Russiagate documents. Vance notes that he supports indictments as the IC and Clinton campaign violated multiple laws. Vance then discusses the latest information about using tariffs as leverage for America-First policy.

Vance dodges the question about running for President with Marco Rubio in 2028 and notes the leaks about the administration officials meeting for a discussion on Epstein was ‘fake news’.  Then, in a remarkable moment, Vance begins to talk about Artificial Intelligence from the perspective of his worrying about “the surveillance state” and the “invasions of privacy” that come with AI. WATCH:

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The financial pundits are putting their customary spin on it, but overall as the reciprocal tariffs begin, things are going well.

China’s trade surplus with the US declined to USD 23.74 billion in July, down from USD 26.57 billion in June, as both exports and imports with the US declined, falling 21.7% and 18.9%, respectively. {LINK}

For Germany, exports to the U.S. slid 2.1% to 11.8 billion euros, the third consecutive monthly decrease and the lowest value since February 2022, Destatis said. They were 8.4% lower than the same month last year. {LINK} However, since imports from the U.S. increased at the same time, this narrowed Germany’s trade surplus in goods with the U.S.

Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter left Washington empty-handed on Wednesday after a hastily arranged trip to avert a crippling 39% tariff on the country’s exports to the United States, its biggest market, three sources familiar with the matter said. {LINK}

Reciprocal tariffs begin today. “Before Thursday, virtually every country’s goods were subject to a minimum 10% tariff. Now rates vary substantially from country to country.”

The highest rates imposed are on goods from Brazil (50%), Laos (40%), Myanmar (40%), Switzerland (39%), Iraq (35%) and Serbia (35%).

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U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer appears on Face the Nation with the ever-dramatic Margaret Brennan. Video and Transcript Below:

The part about Canada is very interesting.

[Transcript] – MARGARET BRENNAN: And we’re joined now by United States Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer. Ambassador, good to have you here.

JAMIESON GREER: Great to be here. Thank you.

MARGARET BRENNAN: So the President signed this executive order on Thursday, raises tariff rates on about 70 countries. Should we expect those to be negotiated down in the coming days?

JAMIESON GREER: I don’t, I don’t think they will be in the coming days. I think a lot of these, well I know a lot of these, are set rates pursuant to deals. Some of these deals are announced, some are not, others depend on the level of the trade deficit or surplus we may have with the country. So, so these, these tariff rates are pretty much set. I expect I do have my phone blowing up. There are trade ministers who, who want to talk more and see how they can work in a different way with the United States, but I think that we have, we’re seeing truly the contours of the President’s tariff plan right now with these rates.

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U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer hold a joint press conference in Stockholm after concluding the third-round of trade talks with Chinese officials.

The discussion and press availability covered U.S-China trade negotiations, economic cooperation and whether President Trump will meet Xi Jinping. Key moments include questions on tariffs, supply chains, and Beijing diplomacy. WATCH:

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Treasury Secretary Bessent notes as the U.S. economy continues strengthening, and as each trade deal with the U.K, Japan, ASEAN nations and Europe have cemented, the talks between the U.S. and China become more substantive.

With each global trade partner agreeing to terms of access to the USA market more pressure is naturally created on China to complete negotiations and affirm their position as supplier to the world’s largest market.

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The reality of the U.S-Canada economic relationship and the position of President Donald Trump is not that difficult to understand if you take all the disparate datapoints and quotes from Trump and put them into context.

During a White House meeting with Mark Carney, President Trump essentially told the Canadian Prime Minister why he was in no hurry to get to a deal with Canada.

The 35% tariffs on non-USMCA goods are going to trigger on August 1st, because the main priority of Trump -looking toward Canada- is to dissolve the USMCA.

During the May 6th oval office meeting with Carney, President Trump was discussing the USMCA and said:  “As you know it terminates fairly shortly. It gets renegotiated fairly shortly.” … “This was a transitional deal, and we’ll see what happens, we’re going to start renegotiating that” … “I don’t know if it serves a purpose anymore.”  …. “And the biggest purpose it served was, we got rid of NAFTA.”

To understand why President Trump wants to dissolve the USMCA {SEE HERE}.  To understand the technical value of dissolving the USMCA {SEE HERE}.  It’s not a complicated economic analysis; it’s common sense.

Currently, approximately 60% of the traded goods and services between the U.S. and Canada are covered by the USMCA; the remaining 40% will be hit by tariffs on August 1st at a 35% rate.

When the USMCA is renegotiated, predictably dissolved in favor of two bilateral trade agreements – one for Mexico and one for Canada, all of the U.S-Canada trade sectors will be part of the enlarged free trade negotiation.  As a result, there is absolutely no motive to engage in trade discussions now.

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