The Bureau of Labor and Statistics released the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) today [DATA HERE].  The financial and business media call the continued rise of consumer inflation “unexpected,” however, the results are not a surprise to those who are not pretending.

This CNBC headline highlights the economic pretense still entrenched: “Inflation increased 0.4% in September, more than expected despite rate hikes.”  Those who are not pretending fully understand the economic dynamic, but you will not find reality expressed by the mainstream media.

FED rate hikes can only impact the demand side of the inflation issue. U.S (and global) inflation is NOT the result of excess demand. It has not been driven by demand for over a year.  The root cause of inflation is on the supply side. That root is grounded in the energy policy making everything entering the marketplace more expensive.

The historic rise in energy prices; the result of Joe Biden’s specific energy policy to limit oil, gas and coal as energy resources; are what have driven inflation throughout the economy.  The monetary policy (Fed policy) continues to pretend this dynamic does not exist.  The FED is trying to support the political policy, but the bloom is off the ruse.

Overall inflation increased 0.4% in September, leading to a result of 8.2% year over year.  Food and energy prices continue driving inflation, additionally core inflation (everything except food and energy) continues to be driven by the originating issue of extreme energy costs.

Everything costs more because energy costs more.  That is the reality of this inflation issue.

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The “Producer Price Index” (PPI) is essentially the tracking of wholesale prices at three stages: Origination (commodity), Intermediate (processing), and then Final (to wholesale). Today, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released September price data [Available Here] showing another 8.5% increase year-over-year in Final Demand products at the wholesale level.  However, that’s not the bad news in this data.

While the overall September PPI was higher than expected at 0.4%, the Final Demand Producer Price for food products in September was a whopping 1.2% (14.4% annualized).

The BLS notes the driver by saying, “a major factor in the September increase in prices for final demand goods was a 15.7-percent advance in the index for fresh and dry vegetables. Prices for diesel fuel, residential natural gas, chicken eggs, home heating oil, and pork also moved higher.”

That’s a 15.7% increase in price, in one month, for fresh and dry vegetables.  Annualized that’s a rate of price increase of 188.4% for vegetables.   Remember the warning about farm costs (energy, fertilizer, fuel) driving field to fork inflation at harvest?  This is the leading edge of that third wave of food price increases.

I have modified BLS Table-2 to focus specifically on food costs.  The data is on left.

You will note that ‘row crops’ are the big drivers along with grain and seed products.  This is exactly as we predicted it would be because those specific farming costs are the ones with greatest increase from energy, fuel, fertilizer, weed and insect control, and diesel costs.

All of those higher costs have been growing in the fields and will now surface at harvest.   The higher farm costs transfer from the field to the fork via the food supply chain.  This is only the leading edge of the price increase.

In October 2021 we first warned of the food price increases coming in distinct waves.  The first was Jan, Feb and March 2022.   The second wave was May through July 2022.  This third wave will be bigger than the first two and starts arriving this month, October 2022.

People laughed at me when I said in late 2022 eggs were going to reach .50¢ EACH ($6/doz).

Well, in September the price of fresh eggs jumped 16.7% in a single month.  That’s an annualized rate of price increase for eggs over 200%.

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The global economic cleaving continues.  Western allied nations are intentionally shrinking their economies to meet intentionally lowered energy production, ie ‘the green new deal’.  However, as the phrase is used, “managing the transition to the green energy economy” still requires the use of oil and gas no longer being generated within the same western allied nations.

As a result of this self-serving and ideological dynamic, any foreign oil provider who restricts the western nations from having access to cheap imported energy is viewed as an enemy.  The U.S. and western alliance forbid domestic development of oil, coal and gas, but the U.S. and western alliance still need oil, coal and gas.  This is the backdrop for Biden creating a dependency on foreign oil and being angry at Saudi Arabia for lowering production. {Direct Rumble Link}  WATCH:

The era of great pretending continues.

In this example Jake Tapper pretends not to know that Biden’s policy to block U.S. oil development has made the U.S. vulnerable to foreign oil decisions.  Saudi Arabia is the bad guy for limiting oil production, but Joe Biden is not confronted for limiting U.S. oil production.  It’s a media game of pretending not to know things.

In a semi related note, do not forget the connections.  NYT/Politico are used for FBI/DOJ narratives.  The Washington Post is used for CIA/IC narratives, and CNN is used for State Dept narratives.   The US State Department is conducting the war operations in Ukraine which is the core issue in the CNN interview above.

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The economic data coming in the past week is in alignment with prior forecasts.  Bottom line, energy driven inflation has collapsed consumer spending, inventories climbing, vendors are cancelling orders, and this is peak season for transpacific shipping- which has now recorded the most rapid drop in history.

A single transpacific container shipment cost $19,000 in 2021, then $14,500 in 2022 as the intentional slowdown began.  Now it’s only $3,900 as entire fleets of cargo shipments are cancelled due to lack of demand by U.S. purchasers.

Folks, get ready…. because it’s not going to get better.  Prior farm costs, an outcome of energy price increases, are now reaching the supply chain. Food costs will continue increasing throughout the holiday season.

(Wall Street Journal) […] Trans-Pacific shipping rates have plummeted roughly 75% from year-ago levels. The transportation industry is grappling with weaker demand as big retailers cancel orders with vendors and step up efforts to cut inventories. FedEx Corp. recently said it would cancel flights and park cargo planes because of a sharp drop in shipping volumes. On Thursday, Nike Inc. said it was sitting on 65% more inventory in North America than a year earlier and would resort to markdowns.

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Tucker Carlson used his opening monologue tonight to discuss the era of The Great Pretending, the disconnect between the ideology driven goals of the politicians and the people they are supposed to represent.

Using Giorgia Meloni as an example of a person who refused to play the pretending game, Carlson notes how Meloni won an easy victory by speaking plain truth to the Italian electorate.  WATCH:

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The National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA) is estimating it will cost Wisconsin residents more than $1,200 to heat an average home this winter, an increase of more than 17% compared to last winter.  [Data Link Here]

Roughly 50% of Wisconsin residents use natural gas for home heating.  Natural Gas heating costs are increasing 34% this year (vs last winter, 2021). That’s also a 66.1% increase over the winter of 2020.

[Source Here]

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Many people believe the people who are in charge of the economic policies destroying the middle-class have no idea how the Main Street economy actually works.  I disagree, I believe they know exactly what they are doing and why they are doing it.

From one perspective, inflation is a statistic that comes from a bureaucratic system quantifying prices.  They have no concept of how policy-driven price increases hurt consumers or working-class families.  Everything in their sphere is academic and esoteric.

However, that said, those who have designed policy know there are benefits to inflation, like lowering economic activity that supports their lowered energy production policies. Inflation also helps them pay their way out of the spending they create that drives the inflation. Make money worth less and debt is lessened, or so the theory is told.

Joe Biden made remarks today that “inflation” as he looks at it, is defined as the amount of money in a paycheck.  WATCH:

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The bizarre part, from the perspective of normal democracy, is the open admission by EU Commissar Ursula von der Leyen that she intends to punish the Italian people if they elect the wrong political leadership to run their country.  Yes, she literally threatened to punish Italy if the voters elect an Italy-first candidate tomorrow.

Having previously sanctioned Hungary and Poland for electing heads of state that are nationalist minded, Ursula von der Leyen warned the Italian people she will take the same action if Italians defy the will of the European Union collective. When asked about EU citizens demanding their elected leaders listen to their specific and unique economic needs, the EU President Stated {Direct Rumble Link}:

“We will see the result of the vote in Italy. If things go in a difficult direction — and I’ve spoken about Hungary and Poland — we have the tools.”

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The remarks come from Commissar von der Leyen because a rising nationalist star in Italy named Giorgia Meloni is anticipated to win victory.  Meloni is an unapologetic nationalist who believes in Italy-first.  As a result, the EU media consider Meloni an ultra-far-right-wing politician.   However, the scale of public support for Meloni has positioned her to become Italy’s first female prime minister in the election tomorrow.

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This is epic. This is like listening to Grandpa rail against the Federal Reserve and central banks without realizing the motive behind what the Federal Reserve and central banks are doing.   This is the best example to date of the misconception behind ‘The Great Pretending.’

U of Penn, Wharton Business School professor of finance, Jeremy Siegel, rails against Jerome Powell and the central bankers for raising interest rates into a collapsing western global economy.  Everything, everything he outlines, is essentially accurate about the damage being done to western economies. …. Except the biggest realization and acceptance is missing…. It’s being done by design.  The people he outlines are not making a mistake, they are doing it on purpose.  First, WATCH:

The U.S, EU, CA, AU and western economic central bankers did not respond sooner to the inflation crisis (2021) because the central banks were waiting for the politicians in their systems to establish the energy policy that their pre-planned action was intended to support.  [<- Reread that if needed].

Once the collective Build Back Better/Climate Change energy policy was established (2021), and after the resulting inflation created the justification for the central bank action, then -and only then- did the central bankers trigger the next phase of raising interest rates (2022) to reduce western economic activity and support the Build Back Better agenda.

All of this was by design.  None of this was by mistake.  The process, strategy and timing were all part of the Build Back Better agenda.  Purposefully created inflation, the result of the energy policy, was planned and used by the central banks to justify the rate increases.  It was a self-fulfilling prophecy built into the Build Back Better roadmap.

Now these ‘bankers’ are trying to collapse the economy to meet the reduction in energy production.  The bankers are supporting the political motives of the politicians.  This is all intentional.  Jeremy Siegel misses this core and fundamental aspect.   However, some of the lesser ideological western leaders (politicians) are starting to get ‘cold feet.’

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Finally, a finance and economic discussion that touches on the critical component to inflation that no one dare say, or else they suffer political backlash.  Although Mick Mulvaney, Austin Goolsbee and to a lesser extent, Rick Santelli, had to maintain the acceptable ‘pretending’ approach, parsing words carefully, at least this is one of the first times where the supply side (energy driven) issue of global inflation was discussed.

As the group collectively admitted there is no other option other than a “hard landing” that collapses the economy from the current Fed approach; additionally, Rick Santelli, blasts the relationship between the political central banks and the global leaders who have pressured this dynamic.  WATCH:

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Still pretending, but lessened a little.  Hey, progress.

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