The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) provides the latest data on consumer prices (inflation) [DATA HERE].  We explained in 2021 how inflation would grow on a month-over-month and year-over-year basis until the calendar became more friendly and the government officials could claim “diminished inflation growth.”  Well, we are now entering that phase of economic parseltongue.

October consumer prices increased 0.4% over September.  However, we are now comparing year-over-year (Y0Y) inflation to the period where last year’s prices had already skyrocketed, so YoY inflation seems to be moderating at 7.7%, it’s a false premise. {Go Deep}

As expected, the energy-driven consumer inflation in the food sector has arrived.  The proverbial field inflation is arriving at the fork, and the October CPI now shows the third wave of food price increases we had previously discussed.

Table 2 Details: Egg prices increased +10.1% last month and now 43% higher than last year.  Butter +1.9% last month, 26.7% for year.  Margarine +1.3% for month, 47.1% for year.  Coffee +1.3% for the month, 15.6% for the year.

Heading into baking season we find flour +0.2% for the month, +24.6% for year.  Essentially, as expected, all of the holiday foodstuffs are now rising in price as the increased field and commodity prices hit the store shelves.

Some row crops are starting to moderate in price growth, while dairy products continue rising throughout the fall season.  It is going to be painful on the checkbook grocery shopping this holiday season.

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Reports are starting to come out that various regions in the Southeastern U.S. are running out of diesel fuel [North Carolina Example] – [Midway Kentucky Example].

The empty service station tanks in North Carolina today come after Mansfield Energy warned of a critical “diesel fuel shortage in the Southeastern United States, including North and South Carolina” [link]

RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) — A diesel fuel alert issued a week ago by a key fuel logistics company hasn’t changed — despite a small increase in inventories of diesel over the last week.  The alert from Mansfield Energy a week ago was for the Southeastern United States, including North and South Carolina, Virginia, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, and Maryland.

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Pennsylvania Senate Candidate Dr Mehmet Oz delivered remarks at the pre-MAGA rally campaign event in Latrobe, Pennsylvania. {Direct Rumble Link} – WATCH: 

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Yesterday, Joe Biden declared that all coal-fired electricity plants in the U.S would be shut down, saying, “we’re going to be shutting these plants down all across America and having wind and solar.”

Today, West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin, the senator who gave Joe Biden the vote he needed for the ‘inflation reduction act’ also known as the climate change investment act that will eliminate all oil, coal and natural gas development, pretends to act surprised that Joe Biden will destroy the West Virginia coal mining industry.

Joe Manchin – “Today, U.S. Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) released the following statement on comments President Biden made about shutting down coal plants.

“President Biden’s comments are not only outrageous and divorced from reality, they ignore the severe economic pain the American people are feeling because of rising energy costs. Comments like these are the reason the American people are losing trust in President Biden and instead believes he does not understand the need to have an all in energy policy that would keep our nation totally energy independent and secure. It seems his positions change depending on the audience and the politics of the day. Politicizing our nation’s energy policies would only bring higher prices and more pain for the American people.

“Let me be clear, this is something the President has never said to me. Being cavalier about the loss of coal jobs for men and women in West Virginia and across the country who literally put their lives on the line to help build and power this country is offensive and disgusting. The President owes these incredible workers an immediate and public apology and it is time he learn a lesson that his words matter and have consequences.” (read more)

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Earlier today Joe Biden said he is confident in the midterm election next week because the American voters love the high inflation economic policies he has initiated.

BIDEN: “And I find that — that the thing that gives me the most confidence is the fact that the policies we’ve initiated, people care about.  Now, they want more.  They write to me, but I don’t know anybody who’s really opposed to us”… 

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During a speech today, Joe Biden bragged about the example of his visit to a Massachusetts coal-fired plant that was forced to close due to regulation.  However, what Biden didn’t mention was the energy provider telling customers to expect a 64% increase in electricity rates effective November 1st.

BIDEN: …”I was just — and so we can accommodate that transition.  I was in Massachusetts about a month ago on the site of the largest old coal plant in America.  Guess what?  It cost them too much money.  They can’t count.  No one is building new coal plants because they can’t rely on it, even if they have all the coal guaranteed for the rest of their existence of the plant.  So it’s going to become a wind generation.

And all they’re doing is — it’s going to save them a hell of a lot of money, and they’re using the same transmission line that transmitted the coal-fired electric on.  We’re going to be shutting these plants down all across America and having wind and solar.”… (link) 

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It’s all a ruse; an economic shell game being played for politics – nothing more.

Consider this quote from Fed Chair Jerome Powell today, “Inflation remains well above our longer-run goal of 2 percent. Over the 12 months ending in September, total PCE prices rose 6.2 percent. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories core PCE prices rose 5.1 percent. And the recent inflation data again have come in higher than expected. Price pressures remain evident across a broad range of goods and services. Russia’s war against Ukraine has boosted prices for energy and food and has created additional upward pressure on inflation.” (source)

You can argue Powell’s points of demand side inflation all day long, it matters not. It’s nonsense.  Take interest rates to 10%, or even eleventy percent, and that will not stop inflation because demand is not creating it.  Current inflation is a supply side issue, driven by a radical change in energy policy.  I have made this case for well over a year, sooner or later people are going to have to stop believing the demand side nonsense.

As Powell himself noted, “with today’s action, we’ve raised interest rates by 3 ¾ percentage points this year,” and yet inflation hasn’t flinched.  Why? Because there was no excess consumer demand to tame all year.  Demand for consumer goods has been in a freefall since the fall of 2021, while the prices of those goods have remained on an upward trajectory because costs associated with producing them continue rising.  That’s a supply side inflation issue, not demand – but Powell cannot admit it.

Powell […] “Even so, we still have some ways to go. And incoming data since our last meeting suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected. Our decisions will depend on the totality of incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation. We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting and communicate our thinking as clearly as possible.

We’re taking forceful steps to moderate demand so that it comes into better alignment with supply. Our overarching focus is using our tools to bring inflation back down to our 2 percent goal and to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored.”

If you want to take the pretending out of the paragraph and make it truthful, insert the word energy:

“We’re taking forceful steps to moderate [energy] demand, so that it comes into better alignment with [policy driven energy] supply.” 

There.  THAT’S THE TRUTH !!

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Folks, we have all watched the North American economic moves with great interest ever since the first discussions about reforming NAFTA were triggered by Donald Trump. Well, things are about to get even more interesting, and we will have a front seat to see how this plays out.

Joe Biden and Canada’s Justin Trudeau are in ideological alignment, willing to destroy the entire North American economy as they construct the new climate change energy systems for the U.S and Canada.  However, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez-Obrador (AMLO) has already indicated -including direct statements to Joe Biden at the White House– that he is not willing to put the Mexican economy into collapse and try to engineer an economic future on solar panels and windmills.

As a direct result of following an independent path, the Mexican currency has strengthened against the U.S. dollar providing AMLO with evidence his current strategy to stay away from the U.S. energy policy has benefit.  Factually, AMLO is a soft-socialist (immigration); however, he is also a strong economic nationalist who has previously expressed a strong dislike for the influence of multinational corporations in Mexico.  AMLO is not a World Economic Forum acolyte.  AMLO ideologically aligned toward team BRICS.

The U.S. and Canada are going to push every possible political pressure point in order to force Mexico to change energy policy.  The stakes are high. It is going to be remarkable to watch what happens as this battle takes place.  The Wall Street Journal starts to notice:

(Wall Street Journal) – A shake-up of Mexican trade officials has clouded prospects for a quick resolution of a dispute with the U.S. and Canada over what are seen as Mexico’s nationalist energy policies.

The changes at the Economy Ministry are part of an effort by Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador to put people who support his stance in charge of negotiations, according to people familiar with the situation.

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Joe Biden does not write his tweets, that is certain.  However, whoever is writing on his behalf sure has an odd way of promoting administration energy policy.

In a Tweet last night [link here] Joe Biden demands oil companies’ lower prices and increase production, or he will raise their taxes and increase regulation:

In essence, lower the prices and increase production or Joe Biden will increase the prices and lower production.  How does this make sense?

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Will big tech and social media remove Joe Biden for violations of misinformation, disinformation and malinformation?  Considering his remarks today, they should.

Reading from a teleprompter loaded with lies about the economy, Joe Biden stunningly states that gas prices are lower today than when he took office. Further claiming that gasoline was $5/gal.  {Direct Rumble Link} Nothing about any of his economic claims is true.  WATCH (1 min):

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Allowing people to return to work after the pandemic lockdowns is not “creating jobs.”  And gasoline was not $5/gal when Joe Biden took office.

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