Earlier today, the White House pushed the Director of the National Economic Council, Brian Deese, to the podium to defend the administration from the outcomes of their economic policies.   Consider this presser the pre-quake tremors.

Mr. Deese begins his presentation by saying giving American workers back their jobs, after shutting down their workplaces and locking out their ability to work at their job, is the equivalent of creating new jobs; the administration is very proud of their magnanimity. Mr. Deese then moves on to the inflation data from today and celebrates a “decrease in the rate of price increases.”  Yes, he used those exact words.

Deese then goes on to say [01:59] that despite the claimed 7% inflation, prices at the grocery store are not higher, gas prices have dropped, home heating costs and natural gas costs are lower, and things are going swimmingly.   I’m not joking about any of that, just watch the first four minutes:

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There was really bad news following the White House celebrating their current economic success. Brian Deese stated the White House intends to use the federal government to get involved in supply chains (distribution), pricing (federal price controls), availability (distribution of products under newly claimed emergency federal authority power via the “pandemic”) and providing relief (protecting urban areas).

What Deese is saying there [4:00 – 09:00] is the worst thing we could ever want to hear when there are massive price increases and simultaneous shortages.  The federal government is ‘leaning forward’, and is going to get more involved.

Then at 09:00 of the video, the alarm bells start ringing.  Journalists asking Brian Deese what the White House is planning to do to get involved and provide national food security.  “The shelves are too empty, and the food is too expensive. What is the White House going to do?”

Whiskey – Tango – Foxtrot!   Danger Will Robinson, DANGER!!

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The absence of food will change things….. Quickly.

The issues will fluctuate region by region and chain by chain as we enter the destabilization phase.  In this phase the impacts in some operators will be small, and in others will be more noticeable.  The difference will be the overall operational excellence in the proprietary business system they operate.

However, once the internal merit is exhausted, the manufacturing issues will impact all food retailers regardless of their warehouse and distribution excellence, or lack thereof.  Ironically, small independent stores might be in the best position to withstand fresh supply pressure as they are closer to the field.

The further away the retail business operation is from the farmer, the greater the impact.  The more people, systems and bureaucracy there are between the retailer and the farmer, the greater the operational impact.  The longer the supply chain, the greater the impact.  It is an unusual dynamic, but the local farmers’ markets are going to be the best source of consistent local supply.  That reality is why the urban areas are going to be hit the hardest.

In this media report from Philadelphia, the local NBC affiliate blames the food supply issues exclusively on Omicron.

This claim is patently false [SEE HERE].

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The final straw, to collapse the remaining supply, will likely be the cross-border truck driver vaccine mandate which kicks in on January 15th.

After that, things start to get sketchy.

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the December inflation data today [DATA HERE] for December.  Readers on these pages are not surprised to discover that inflation in the U.S. economy has now reached a forty year high at 7 percent.  {Go Deep}

Unfortunately, the 7% in June of 1982 was when inflation was on the way down from Jimmy Carter’s failed economic policy.  This time our 7% milestone has been achieved while inflation is on the climb thanks to Joe Biden’s failed economic policies.

Carter’s mess was created by regulation, policies and oil prices.  Biden’s mess is created by the same and much more.

Yes, it will be getting worse.

That weird picture with the Bidens and the Carters comes to mind.  The scale within the picture is appropriate when considering inflation and what is to come.  Biden’s inflation is much larger than Carter’s.

As you know, the top line number of 7% is a false premise.  We are feeling much, much higher overall prices in our lives with gasoline, home heating fuel, electricity costs, housing and the astronomical prices at the grocery store.  The BLS data is backward looking, meaning it was compiled in early December 2021 for comparison to December 2020.  Where we are CURRENTLY is much worse than where we were in early December.

We are feeling the front side of the inflation hurricane right now. The consumer prices at end of January and through February are now reflecting new purchase order prices and contract prices to wholesalers, buyers and retailers.  The higher energy costs, fuel costs, warehousing costs, transportation costs and delivery costs are cumulative. As a result, the December report is simply the precursor to what will be much more damaging inflation data in Feb (showing this month) and March (showing Feb).

Additionally, the BLS data captured gas prices at their slight drop from oil prices in late November and early December.  The price of oil has now gone even higher, and the price of gasoline is once again on the rise.  We have not yet seen the worst of this folks.  Hopefully most are prepared.

I modified BLS Table-1, taking out some of the noise, to give the snapshot of how the bureau is compiling data:

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Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg visited the Port of Los Angeles (POLA) and Port of Long Beach (POLB) to announce the Biden administration officially saved Christmas.  Yes, that actually happened.   Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti took it one step further and proclaimed Secretary Buttigieg as the official “man who saved Christmas”.   WATCH:

The Biden administration is making these ridiculous claims, because they know that no one in the media will actually look into the data and challenge them on the insufferable nonsense.  [SEE DATA HERE]

However, beyond the ridiculous claims about increasing port container delivery, when there was actually a decline in port container delivery, the POLA and POLB scheme to hide the ships {Go Deep} has now spread to the Port of Oakland, California.

“Operation Hide the Ships”

OAKLAND – […] Following its success in Southern California, the new system is being expanded to the Bay Area. Ships will wait 50 miles off the coast in a safety and air quality zone until their scheduled arrival time at the Port.

The new system became effective Monday. Ships will get an arrival time based on when they left their last port of call. Before Monday, ships were given an arrival time when they were fewer than 80 nautical miles from the coast.

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The empty shelf problems in/around DC last weekend were mostly due to regional weather and employment issues.  However, the snapshot represents an example of how people react to their first encounter.  The conditions in the video represent a worst case scenario for those who have been watching the supply chain issue coming over the horizon. {Go Deep}

I doubt our average 2022 result will be this bad overall, however, there are areas where this might be the status.  For most people outside urban areas, this severity of a food store shortage is unlikely, unless the federal government gets involved.  If the federal government intervenes, this will be more common.

We know from prior examples, if these types of conditions were to last for just 72 hours across every store in a metropolitan region, you would see a level of panic begin.  Civic stability remains relatively stable for 72 hours (3 days).  However, if these conditions are persistent for more than 3 days, the general mindset of the population changes quickly.  Things rapidly deteriorate.  After three days, all reference points for civic norms are gone.

Those who remember Miami-Dade, specifically the Homestead region, in the aftermath of hurricane Andrew have a solid reference for what happens.  New Orleans after hurricane Katrina was a lesser, albeit more public version.   Hunger, fear and desperation are not a good combination.

{Background on Larger Issues HERE}

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The snowball effect of cumulative inflation is going to be on display tomorrow when the BLS inflation data from December is released.  We have previously discussed the unavoidable price increases as noted within the November data Here, and within the producer price data Here.

While the data being released tomorrow is backward looking, we are in the eye of the inflation storm right now.  The consumer prices at end of January and through February are all reflecting new purchase order prices and contract prices to wholesalers, buyers and retailers.   As a result, the December reports will be the precursor to what will be much more damaging data in Feb and March.

White House spokesperson Jen Psaki began trying to get ahead of the consumer price release with a short briefing to the traveling press pool earlier today.  A short audio-only soundbite reflects the political problem the White House knows they will soon be dealing with. LISTEN:

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It is difficult to imagine how the Biden administration can possibly spin the economic reality of increasing, unavoidable inflation making the economy weaker over the next year.  However, somehow, they will try.

The AP is reporting that 68% of Americans now say the economy overall is their number one concern.  Meanwhile, the federal reserve of New York is reporting the inflation results from December are likely to be the same, if not higher, than the inflation results in November.

The Biden administration has continued to push additional federal spending under the auspices of Build Back Better as the bridge to offset the impact from their Green New Deal energy policies.  In fact, if you look at how the massive spending effort has been shaped, it becomes clear the overall goal is to push a new energy policy and then hide the impact by using COVID as the cover for the subsidies to try and offset the impacts.

It is a sneaky program when reviewed in totality.  Shut down oil and natural gas production, cancel leases, block pipelines and use the regulatory arm to shut down any additional growth in the oil and gas industry, including refinery capacity.  Then, try to hide the consequences by subsidizing the core constituencies who would normally be immediately impacted.

Unfortunately for the Biden architects, no amount of legislative spending is going to be able to offset the massive economic impact of implementing the Green New Deal by executive order, regulatory changes and administrative policy.  The American people are not blind to consequences, and when they start to look deeper into the causes of this inflation, what they discover is easy to see.

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BUMPED by request. Unfortunately, there is a lot of wrong information being discussed and shared.  Even reputable regional media are giving inaccurate information, making wrong interpretations {LINK}, and generally getting the explanations wrong.  Additionally, there’s general misinterpretations of ordinary outages based on the day of the week (Sunday) and bad weather in the Northeast {ex Twitter Thread}.

All of these #BidensEmptyShelves assumptions, which are being heightened by increased attention and social media, are leading to confusion.

An empty retail shelf or case for a 24, 36 to 48-hour period is not, I repeat, NOT, part of a systemic supply chain disruption.  Those are mostly location and regional specific out of stock situations caused by localized events, weather and employee shortages.

What CTH has been describing for the past several months is NOT what is noted above.  What we have been describing is a long term supply chain crisis that will slowly unfold over a period of about a week or two, and then remain a problem over time, for a period of 6+ months. {GO DEEP}

The thirteen bullet points below are the issues we will first notice as the general food supply chain begins to show signs of that type of vulnerability.  This outline explains why it is happening and how long it can be expected.

In the previous October, November and December warnings, we emphasized preparation and counted down the 90-day window.  Now, as we enter the final two weeks before mid/late January, the date of our original prediction, it appears that some media are starting to catch up, and the larger public is starting to notice.

Feel free to note in the comments section what is happening in your area.  Hopefully, most of us are much better positioned than the average person who has not been following this as closely over the past several months.

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Neil Oliver goes there, directly to the epicenter of “build back better.”   In this monologue not only does Oliver highlight the connective tissue and motives of the elite, but he also references their words to point out the bigger leftist agenda at work.  WATCH:

Point One – The “Build Back Better” agenda (in every nation) was never about anything except radical climate change legislation.  Once you accept that baseline, things start to become much clearer.

Point Two – The “Build Back Better” phrase came from the World Economic Forum and was promoted by a multitude of international leaders and left-wing organizations.   That reality then brings up the most important point.  To get to “building back better”, you first need to destroy something.  That thing they needed to destroy was the global economic dependency on carbon-based fuel supplies (oil, gas, coal, etc.).

Point Three – In order to destroy the ‘something of that scale’, the energy program for the entire world, something massive is needed to fundamentally change the entire world approach toward energy production.  Something is needed to create the crisis that provides the origin for the process to initiate.

Point Four – That triggering mechanism was/is SARS-CoV-2, or what we now call COVID-19 and all variants therein.

There you have it.  That’s the summary soup to nuts explanation of why a virus was created, and the subsequent panic pushing to create social structures that would facilitate the global acceptance of an entire new economic system that would be designed around saving the planet.

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