For those waiting patiently for the USMCA termination announcement, this is a potential indication and/or signal of pendency.

When President Trump and USTR Jamieson Greer send the official notification, a six-month countdown clock begins running.  As of right now there are no official statements that indicate the likely triggering, it’s a guess.  However, there are datapoints aligning in that direction.

[SOURCE]

No one outside our assembly has contemplated the termination of the USMCA (CUSMA) or what would occur in the aftermath; however, the Bank of Canada has gamed out the financial consequences, briefly in their forward guidance. The ramifications are significant, perhaps more significant than any other global trade announcement.

[…] “it more likely that a new shock or a combination of shocks could cause several vulnerabilities to crystalize at once. If this were to happen, these vulnerabilities could interact and reinforce each other. 

A cascading series of events could cause a sharp loss of investor confidence and lead to a spike in demand for liquidity or rapid asset sales. Funding markets could come under pressure, and stress could spread more broadly.” [SOURCE]

I suggest we keep a close eye on all U.S-Mexico discussions, as well as geopolitical leverage points that might surface in the U.S-Mexico relationship. My best guess is that once the U.S. and Mexico come to renewed terms on the ‘USMCA’ as a potential bilateral free trade agreement, that will be the moment when the planets are aligned for the termination notification.

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Canada is drowning in the Sea of China. The USA is the rescue swimmer.  When we reach the victim they thrash, try to climb on our back and pull us under. Survival for both now requires us to punch them in the face, back away and ask them if they prefer to drown. If not, listen to instructions.

The USMCA or CUSMA needs to be terminated!  That’s the punch in the nose.

Then a bilateral trade agreement can be negotiated.  That’s the swimmer giving the victim instructions.

If Canada chooses to drown in the Sea of China, so be it.

Then we build a regulatory wall against all Canadian products, banning the entry of Chinese component parts in EVERYTHING!

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For about a year CTH has predicted Chinese auto manufacturers BYD and GEELY would take over shuttered auto plants in Canada.  Specifically, six months ago, against the backdrop warning of Stellantis, Toyota and Honda telling the Canadian government that without the USMCA they would shift auto production to the USA, CTH predicted BYD and GEELY would make moves on those closed facilities.

The move by China is easy to predict.  Prime Minister Mark Carney has opened the door to Chinese EVs.  It would be in Beijing’s best interest to retool and take control of closed plants to begin mass production in North America.

Chinese EV manufacturing in Canada serves two purposes.

First, they would not be limited in production to the cars that remain in Canada as part of the agreement.  Factually, China would use their Canadian footprint as an export hub into Europe and save money on current distribution.   Remember, Europe is losing their auto manufacturing base to China and Germany is laying off 100,000+ auto workers.

Second, the appearance of Chinese auto manufacturing in North America would put pressure on the United States to permit their cheap EVs to enter the market.

Today Bloomberg is reporting exactly what we predicted.  Chinese automaker BYD (Build Your Dream) is asking local officials about the currently idled Stellantis auto plant.  Things are following a very predictable timeline.

BLOOMBERG – Chinese carmaker BYD Co. inquired about taking over an idled Stellantis NV plant in the Toronto suburbs, according to a local politician, signaling possible global interest in Canadian auto hubs in the midst of a trade battle with the US.

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Secretary Bessent notes in his prepared remarks that President Trump has called the nations who are engaged with Iran to request them to cease and desist.  That means Trump likely called Chairman Xi (China), President Putin (Russia), President Erdogan (Turkey) and President Asif Ali Zardari of Pakistan.

The video and transcript of Secretary Bessent’s remarks are below. Media questions begin at 7:50 of video. WATCH:

[TRANSCRIPT] – Good afternoon.

Today, at President Trump’s direction, the United States Treasury has begun Operation Economic Outcast – an unprecedented campaign against the Islamic Republic of Iran and its enablers.

In the Second World War, D-Day marked the historic beginning of a campaign with our allies to target and drive the enemy from its positions, including those in third countries.

Today, in that same spirit, we are launching an economic onslaught against Iran’s financial connections around the globe. Our objective is to sever every economic lifeline that sustains this tyrannical regime until Tehran stands alone.

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An interesting soundbite from Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) President Mike Froman who distills down the main point of contention.  Essentially, the U.S. position is to demand a common trade approach toward China and the U.S. delegation gave Canada an ultimatum within the deal proposed, us or them.

If Mike Froman is correct, Mark Carney chose China. [X LINK] Video Below:

Mike Froman, former US Trade Rep on CNN yesterday afternoon “I think the new issue is that the Trump administration is pressing Canada, as well as other countries, to adopt a common approach vis a vis China, whether it’s a common external tariff or export controls, or ensuring… pic.twitter.com/RoTIXMZs3k

— cbcwatcher (@cbcwatcher) August 23, 2026

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There are a few that ankle bite about President Trump focusing on trade agreements as if it is foreign policy and not economic policy for America that is the #1 factor in our future.  I do not see value in such nonsense.  Economic security is national security – period.

After a day of Canadian government officials pushing a twisted narrative about their position regarding U.S-Canada trade, President Trump puts forth a simple truthful statement:

[SOURCE]

Additionally, U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer talked to the New York Times about the current issues that created the fracture in negotiations. I will outline those aspects below.

CTH readers will note that in 2025 and again earlier this year, our prediction was the USMCA (CUSMA) would dissolve in/around early July, and the U.S. would ultimately end up withdrawing completely in/around August of 2026.  I would be remiss if I did not note current events are following a very predictable path.

Trade issues with Canada are irreconcilable against the entitlement that underpins the Canadian economic mindset.  You will note these “friction points” do not exist with Mexico; there is a cultural and brutally factual reason for this.

Canada feels entitled to maintain a trade relationship with the USA as if they are a state in our union.  However, just like the abusive mentality in any toxic relationship, Canada refuses any reciprocity.  Canada maintains protectionist tariffs, non-tariff barriers, quotas against U.S. goods and one-way restrictions on banking, finance, intellectual property and media. The latter part they call “cultural” protection.

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Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is delivering speeches, holding press conferences and trying to justify his position following the collapse of negotiations between the USA and Canada.  Meanwhile, President Trump and his trade team are intentionally quiet.

In all high-stakes negotiations, deals and financial issues, the apex predators always know you make your point clearly and without reservation, you establish your terms and then you don’t say anything.  Total silence.  The first person to break the silence is the losing hand.  Once your terms are established you stay quiet and then let the other party talk, talk, and talk themselves to yes.  Silence is the power.

Mark Carney is telling everyone his position and trying to justify what has taken place.  Mark Carney is in a very weak position on both structure and substance of the issues. [I wrote a lengthy explanation HERE]

Within this segment Carney tries to explain what the USA requests were that Canada would not agree to.  He notes the U.S. wanted strict control over Canada’s free trade agreements (FTAs) with other countries.  What Carney fails to note is that this exists already, right now in the USMCA [Article 32:10 of the USMCA].  The U.S. has termination rights to both Canada and Mexico FTAs with other countries.  This is an example of Carney gaslighting Canadians.

In reality, Canada wants unlimited and unrestricted access to the U.S. market as if they were a 51st state.  However, Canada will not permit unlimited and unrestricted access to their market for U.S. companies.  This, Carney says, compromises the sovereignty of Canada. WATCH:

.

I was confident the discussions would collapse because the Canadian position is based on lies, fraud and political denial.  Canada is playing politics hoping to retain their one-sided benefits and outlast President Trump into the midterm election.  Trump, however, has already executed the tariffs and the only thing remaining for him and Greer to do is trigger the six-month USMCA withdrawal. [Details Here]

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Many people are interested in the John Solomon release of FBI information regarding former congressman Eric Swalwell and his relationship with a known Chinese operative named Fang Fang, aka Christine Fang. [SOLOMON LINK]

Personally, I’m not that interested in rehashing the Swallwell-Fang Fang storyline. However, there is a lot of mistaken information regarding the story.  So, here’s the full background context that will hopefully make sense of the FBI conduct as it relates to the Chinese compromise.

[Fang Fang, aka “Rusty Thumbs”]

[Rusty Thumbs was chosen by the FBI as the codename because the rumor was that Swallwell liked a sexual position known as the “rusty trombone.” Fang would stimulate Swalwell thusly. I know, TMI.]

♦ The FBI has two basic missions.  The #1 primary mission is to protect the interests of Washington DC officials from the outcome of their own conduct.  The #2 secondary mission is to protect the American people from known wolves.

♦ The Dept of Justice National Security Division (DOJ-NSD) monitors foreign influence in Washington DC. The DOJ-NSD use the Foreign Agent Registration Act (FARA) as the primary legal tool to monitor the political influence.  Former Attorney General Eric Holder, on behalf of President Obama, took this monitoring to new political levels of weaponization.

These two facets come together in the story of California members of congress who are long known to have been the primary conduit of Chinese money into DNC operations at a federal and individual campaign level.  The FBI have known about this for a long time, a very long time.

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On its face this seems like a rather remarkable statement from President Trump.  However, below the surface the geopolitical ramifications are perhaps not as surprising.

Today, President Trump notes the administration is shifting its position of military support toward South Korea.

PRESIDENT TRUMP – Based on my very good relationship with Kim Jong Un, of North Korea, I am not happy with the fact that the United States has, long ago, agreed to participate in Joint Military Exercises with South Korea. These exercises are not only costly, with much of these costs paid for by the United States of America (as usual!), but send a signal that is totally inappropriate and hostile, to a Country that, as long as Donald J. Trump has been President, has been unthreatening and respectful. Therefore, and based on the fact that it is too late to cancel, I have instructed Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, to substantially reduce the Joint Military Exercises!

While somewhat unrelated (?), I recently asked the President of South Korea if they would like to join us in the Denuclearization of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and they said, “No thanks!” Thank you for your attention to this matter.” – President DONALD J. TRUMP

Implied directly within the last paragraph was President Trump resetting the relationship based on South Korea’s unwillingness to support the U.S. goals toward Iran.

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The White House Office of Trade and Manufacturing released an extensive report this week identifying the major nations who enable China to transship goods into the U.S market in an effort to avoid tariffs.  [REPORT HERE]

Within the report several nations and regions are identified as being used by Chinese manufacturers to avoid U.S. customs and duty enforcement mechanisms.  However, both Canada and Mexico are cited as primary enablers of the process.

[SOURCE HERE]

The issue strikes at the heart of the problem identified long ago with the NAFTA agreement, and the problem only worsens when the USMCA provisions on country of origin are not enforced.

When you remove oil and lumber, the majority of Canada’s manufactured exports to the USA contain Chinese component parts and this has been the source of much friction in the current trade negotiations.  The manufacturing supply chain within all free trade agreements only works when the source of component goods is accurately recorded.

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