If the government “shuts down” but nobody notices, is it really a shutdown?

After a group of 38 republicans aligned with almost all democrats in the house, the effort to raise the debt ceiling and fund government failed.

Unbeknownst to most, the debt ceiling was suspended in Jun of 2023. As a result, Joe Biden and congress could spend on Ukraine without worry about the debt ceiling being a hurdle. The UniParty suspended the debt ceiling with a purpose.

Starting Jan 1st, 2025, the debt ceiling issue is scheduled to return. National debt will be whatever it was when the debt ceiling was suspended plus whatever spending Biden and the UniParty did since June of 2023. A new debt ceiling is estimated to be hit by June of 2025 or earlier.

President Trump told Speaker Mike Johnson -using the CR as a vehicle- to push the restart of the debt ceiling back for 2 years. This would allow for continuance of the tax cuts that President Trump wants to make; plus, economic drivers like no tax on tips, no tax on social security, no tax on overtime, a 15% tax bracket for companies who build, invest and manufacture in the USA.  Expanding the economy is the goal.

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White House deputy chief of policy Stephen Miller is furious that House Republicans would agree to a massive spending and regulatory package that puts President Trump in a position to raise the debt ceiling during his first year in office.

The administrative construct of the continuing resolution is approximately 1,000 pages. The $100 billion in FEMA funding for disaster relief is approximately 500 pages. The actual CR aspect of the bill is only about 15 pages.

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I have been waiting for someone to outline what the Dept of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is all about.  Unfortunately, perhaps due to the history of the matter, it appears few understand. So, with that in mind, and accepting the operators of DOGE may not have a fulsome comprehension of the dynamic, here is what it means.

The last Federal Budget that passed through “regular order” was for Fiscal Year 2008, signed by President George W Bush in September of 2007.  Every budget since has been outside regular order; a series of continuing resolutions, omnibus spending packages and short-term funding mechanisms.  {CITATION}

That is correct.  In the past 17 years, all federal spending has been ‘short-term’ or ‘stop-gap’ spending measures, generally known as “Continuing Resolutions,” where the govt (House and Senate) continue to perpetually resolve to fund the government.  The CRs as they are known, punt the spending debate by accepting a baseline of prior spending and tweaking around the edges.

The key takeaway to begin thinking about DOGE is to understand that REGULAR ORDER has not been used since Fiscal Year 2008.

Title III of the Congressional Budget Act outlines a legal timeline that each President and Congress must follow {SEE HERE}.  Prior to 2007, Continuing Resolutions were only used to resolve short term arguments about spending priorities.

♦ BACKGROUND – The President is required by law to submit his budget by the first Monday in February.  Yes, even when an election takes place and a President doesn’t assume office until January 20th, the first Monday in February is still the legal requirement for the new White House budget proposal.

The Presidents’ budget is then submitted to The House of Representatives, where two weeks later the Congressional Budget Office, reviews the budget and issues an opinion as to the cost of the budget.   No later than six weeks after the President submits his budget all House committees send the House Appropriations Committee their spending proposals [April 15].

Through May and June, each budgetary appropriations bill from the House is sent to the Senate.  The Senate receives the House appropriations bills, then reviews through the Senate Appropriations Committee (Thune just picked Susan Collins as Chair).  The Senate proposes their spending priorities based on the House bill because the House has constitutional authority to originate all spending [June 15].  The House and Senate budgets are “reconciled” using parliamentary procedures [June 30] and then sent to the President for signature.

The fiscal year begins October 1st.

That’s the regular order process.

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President Trump is scheduled to arrive in Paris this weekend.  Today, almost in an act of divine providence, the government collapsed.

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier will submit his resignation to French President Emmanuel Macron tomorrow, according to France’s BFMTV. He is expected at the Elysee Palace at 10am local time. Barnier’s resignation is a constitutional obligation after he lost a vote of no-confidence earlier Wednesday evening triggering the collapse of his government.

SUMMARY of EVENTS: •Michel Barnier lost a no-confidence vote, triggering the collapse of govt. •It marks the first time a French government has been toppled in this way in more than 60 years. •Barnier is now the shortest-serving prime minister in France’s modern Republic. •Left and far-right parties united to oust him following anger over his unpopular 2025 budget. •Both tabled motions of no-confidence after he used special powers to adopt part of the budget this week without a final vote in parliament. •Nationalist leader Marine Le Pen said the public needed to be protected from the “toxic” budget, and that pressure on Macron is getting “greater and greater”.

FRANCE – The government of President Emmanuel Macron collapsed Wednesday after the National Assembly voted for the first time in more than a half-century to oust a prime minister from office, a sign of the political gridlock that has paralyzed France. The development leaves the country’s public finances in limbo.

A no-confidence motion against the government of Prime Minister Michel Barnier won the support of 331 lawmakers in the 577-seat lower house, forcing him to resign.

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There are four general aspects to the larger Trump legacy term that are starting to become very visible.  This is the era when political change starts to become visible in real terms.  We are all in the front row, on the cusp of a historic moment.

♦ The four generalized fronts are: (1) The economic front, which will be both domestic (Main St) and foreign (multinationals) as executed. (2) The IC/Justice front, which is inherently domestic. (3) The Legislative Branch front, this is where DOGE (Dept of Government Efficiency) comes into play; and lastly (4) The Dept of State confrontation with allies and enemies on all three other fronts.

Within #3, the legislative branch battle against the executive, this is where the spending issue, the purse strings, the power center dynamic over taxpayer distribution will be fought through the Dept of Government Efficiency, or DOGE led by Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy and a few key allies in both the House and Senate.

Because the nature of the DOGE battle is centered around money, the root issue is ultimately who controls the power within Washington DC.  Control the money and you control the power.  Inside this battle over spending the historic dynamic of the UniParty will be visible.  Remember, Democrats want power, Republicans want money.

Mitch McConnell and Chuck Schumer have already started to position their defenses against DOGE and Trump {SEE HERE}.  The committee chairs and vice-chairs are selected to keep the power of control of spending away from DOGE/Trump.  Republican Chair Susan Collins, appointed by Thune/McConnell will not willingly let DOGE/Trump interfere in the way the Senate assigns funds. Ultimately this distribution is their power center.

DOGE is reported to be looking carefully at the Impoundment Control Act, challenging the system that places limits on a president’s ability to unilaterally withhold funding. According to Politico, Musk and Ramaswamy “believe the Supreme Court, which has three justices nominated by Trump, would be favorable to them.” The bottom line is the Executive v Legislative battle, where President Trump is going to try and reduce the size of government while congress keeps spending to maintain it.

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President Donald Trump has announced Scott Bessent as nominee for U.S. Treasury Secretary. The Secretary of Treasury implements tax policy, manages the nation’s debt, leads financial regulators, monitors and executes sanctions and conducts economic diplomacy. While the U.S. trade representative takes the lead on tariffs, the Treasury secretary typically plays a key role advising on that issue as well.

[SOURCE]

Bessent (62) is a hedge Fund manager, the founder of investment firm Key Square Capital Management.  Despite supporting President Trump early, he has faced criticism for working as the CIO at George Soros’s Soros Fund Management from 2011 to 2015. He lives in Charleston, S.C.

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President Trump has announced the official nomination of Russ Vought for the position of OMB Director.

Russ Vought ran the Office of Management and Budgets under President Trump in the first administration, and he is now nominated to do so again.

[SOURCE]

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The interview below is a little complicated at first on the issues of economics. If you are not an economic wonk, or deep research into the theories and realities of how finance and human activity can transact in the world of economics, it might be a little complicated. However, if you are a person who enjoys a deep discussion on the intricacies of the battle between economic freedom -vs- socialism, then this is for you.

Lex Fridman does an excellent job of asking a short ‘big picture’ question, then listening to a lengthy response and answer. The interview is very substantive and as the interview progresses beyond the economic issues, Argentina President Javier Milei pulls back to give perspective on the real battle within the financial ‘west’.

The first hour is wonky, complex and full of answers about what a very intelligent President Milei did to correct the course in Argentina. The second hour pulls back to the broader landscape of freedom. Find some quiet time to enjoy and absorb. WATCH:

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Chapters:
0:00 – Introduction
3:27 – Economic freedom
8:52 – Anarcho-capitalism
18:45 – Presidency and reforms

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Russ Vought ran the Office of Management and Budgets under President Trump in the first administration, and there is a strong likelihood he will again.

Mr Vought sat down with Tucker Carlson for a lengthy interview outlining what he learned about how the deep state actually works. WATCH:

Chapters:
0:00 What is the Office of Management and Budget?
7:57 How Our Intel Agencies Overrule the President
29:21 What Will the Congressional Hearings Look Like for Trump’s Appointees?
36:18 The Evil Think Tanks Trying to Undermine You

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Yup, another kick-the-can continuing resolution spending bill has passed the House.  This extension lasts until March 1st and 8th.

The short-term CR negotiated in part by House Speaker Mike Johnson, passed the House on a 314-108 vote margin.  207 Democrats and 107 Republicans voted for it.  Yes, that’s correct; more democrats supported the CR than republicans, and this is with a republican house majority.

It’s a Democrat CR bill being brought up by a Republican House Speaker and passed by the UniParty.  Almost half of the Republicans voted against it (106), while just 2 Democrats voted no.  The DC UniParty in its full glory.

“Our Speaker, Mr. Johnson, said he was the most conservative speaker we’ve ever had, and yet here we are, putting this bill on the floor,” said. Rep. Eli Crane of Arizona in a floor speech ahead of the vote, adding that the situation is what “led to us to vacate Speaker McCarthy in the first place.”

WASHINGTON DC – On a 314-108 House vote, Congress just bought six more weeks to continue the fiscal 2024 funding fight. But even the new March government shutdown deadlines are going to be a challenge to meet.

STEP 1: ANOTHER NUMBERS DEAL — Top Hill leaders might have agreed on overall spending levels nearly two weeks ago, but appropriators can’t get to work writing legislation until the two appropriations chairs — Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and Rep. Kay Granger (R-Texas) — work out their own deal on how to divvy up the topline number among the 12 individual bills, setting what’s known among wonks as the 302(b)s.

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