We said it was happening {Go Deep}, and it is.  Last month CTH put the preparation window at 60 days +/- depending on region.  That window is now around 30 days before the next spike in inflation shows up from cumulative costs snowballing throughout the supply chain. The “producer price index” is essentially the tracking of wholesale prices at three stages: Origination (commodity), Intermediate and Final.

The final product inflation rate in July (reported in August) was alarming at 7.8%. However, we warned it would get worse. The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) then released stunning price data for October [DATA Here], showing an even more dramatic 8.6% price increase in final demand. More intense warnings shared.

Today, we get the November BLS Result [DATA Here], and unfortunately the results are showing what was expected.  The cumulative costs of massive increases in energy prices are building into the supply at an astonishing rate.  The November data shows a rate of wholesale final goods inflation at 9.6%, the largest single month comparative rate increase in history.

The bureau even went back and revised/increased the August price index from 7.8 to 8.4 percent, and revised/increased the October figure from 8.6 to 8.8 percent.  The average monthly price increase is almost a full percent… every month.  It looks like the BLS backward revisions are an attempt to smooth down the rate of increase.

(BLS) – “The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.8 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.6 percent in each of the 3 prior months. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index rose 9.6 percent for the 12 months ended in November, the largest advance since 12-month data were first calculated in November 2010.” (more)

I modified Table A (final demand product pricing), taking out some of the noise to make it a little easier to see the big picture of what is happening.

When you see the wholesale level of prices almost double the increase in consumer level inflation rate, you can predict that consumer prices will likely go even higher.  Future finished goods, at a retail level, will carry the current wholesale price increase.

Stuff costs a lot now… and because the inbound stuff to make the finished goods is still climbing in price…. stuff is about to cost even more.   You can see this in the inflation rate of intermediate goods which I have highlighted below.

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I’m not confident that Joe Manchin will ultimately hold the line on more spending; however, it is interesting that on the same day Manchin is reported to be casting doubt on more Joe Biden social spending {LINK}, the Washington Post published a hitjob on him around his family finances {LINK}.

Accepting there are no coincidences in politics, it would appear the intelligence agencies are firing a warning shot against Senator Manchin based on his financial connections to the West Virginia coal industry.

(New York Times) – WASHINGTON — Senator Joe Manchin III of West Virginia, the most prominent Democratic holdout on President Biden’s $2.2 trillion social safety net, climate and tax bill, cast fresh doubt on Monday on his party’s plans to speed the measure through the Senate before Christmas, saying he still had grave concerns about how it would affect the economy.

Mr. Manchin outlined his skepticism before speaking by telephone about the bill with Mr. Biden, a discussion that aides to both later characterized as positive. After the call, Mr. Manchin, who represents West Virginia, did not rule out the possibility of supporting the measure this month. He said that “anything is possible here” when asked about a vote before Christmas, and that he was still “engaged” in conversations with the White House.

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Comrades, December is a time of joy and festive gatherings at the famous German Christmas markets. However, the COVID madness has caused the worst in government authority to surface. Not even Santa Claus is immune from the control efforts.

Video has surfaced of Santa Claus being arrested at the Stralsund Christmas Market for the crime of not wearing a mask outdoors in public. WATCH:

https://youtu.be/3YBd1FqvZUc

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Madness, all of it.

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The New York Federal Reserve survey reflects the obvious.  Consumers see staple food and energy price increases far outpacing any wage gains, and the outlook moving forward does not show signs of improvement.

The distance between the inflation line and the wage line is the intensity of the hurricane coming our way.

We are in this very weird place where the politically motivated Fed cannot stop purchasing debt created by legislative spending.  At the same time, the political Fed is going to have to raise interest rates or we will enter an impossible spiral of policy caused inflation.  There are three options:  (1) stop buying debt; (2) increase interest rates; or (3) deploy some COVID mechanism to shut down people and hit the demand side.

Considering that Omicron didn’t work, and further panic pushing does not seem politically viable, that only leaves the two options of the Fed stops buying debt, and/or the Fed raises interest rates. Now, considering that these same political ideologues will not stop pushing the Build Back Better legislative agenda, that means the Fed cannot stop buying debt.  That leaves one option remaining, increase interest rates.

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“It must be remembered that there is nothing more difficult to plan, more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to manage than a new system. For the initiator has the enmity of all who would profit by the preservation of the old institution and merely lukewarm defenders in those who gain by the new ones.” ~ Niccolo Machiavelli

Never has that quote been more apropos than when considering the MAGA movement and the rise of Donald Trump.  Thankfully, we are now in an era when the largest coalition of American voters have awakened to the reality that, to quote the former president: “Economic Security is National Security.”

As we live through the consequences of a Biden administration hell bent on eroding the middle class of the United States, there are numerous pundits contemplating 2024 Republican presidential candidates other than Donald Trump; consider this group the lukewarm defenders Machiavelli noted.

At the same time the leftist coalition, writ large, are apoplectic about the base of the Republican Party now belonging to Donald Trump.  This group consists of those affluent Wall Street agents and politicians set on retaining the profits derived from decades of institutional objectives.

Institutional Democrats hate him and institutional Republicans are lukewarm, at best, in defending him.

Both wings of the DC UniParty want a different direction.

In this outline, I rise to explain why Donald Trump is the only option for the America First MAGA coalition; and I make my case not on supposition, but on empirical reference points that most should understand.

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Well, there’s another “economist” who can be set into the folder of ‘no longer useful’.  During his appearance today on CBS Face The Nation, Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser for Allianz, finishes his segment by revealing his underlying precept: Climate Change policy is now the economic policy driver of all his investment advice.

Within the interview, El-Erian said the “characterization of inflation as transitory is probably the worst inflation call in the history of the Federal Reserve.”  Additionally, El-Erian said inflation is likely to remain high into the next year and perhaps beyond.  Unfortunately, other than those two points of generally well educated accuracy, everything else is wrapped up in the political correctness of climate change…. which, you don’t really discover until the very end of the interview. WATCH:

The baseline for El-Erian saying the Build Back Better spending fiasco is a good thing, is based on accepting the pretense that massive amounts of federal spending will be needed to structurally change the U.S. economy from fossil fuel use to the Green New Deal.   If you do not believe in this transformation, there is no merit to any component of the BBB spending proposal. It really is that simple.

As a consequence, El-Erian is staking the position that climate change agenda politics is now the focal point from which all other economic policy will be determined.  He has conceded in his mind and worldview, perhaps based on his associations and peer discussions, that any forward economic analysis must therefore establish itself from the alternative fuel position.

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The NBC media panel for Meet the Press is absolutely apoplectic about their inability to destroy President Donald Trump and his supportive base of pragmatic, awakened Americans.   The pearl-clutching and fear are palpable, as the leftist roundtable contemplates future elections that may deconstruct decades of election control, manipulation, fraud and falsehood.

What the panel of John Heilemann, Marianna Sotomayor, Kimberly Atkins Stohr and Brendan Buck really fear is the pesky system within our constitutional republic we call ‘federalism’.   They need to keep their attacks against Donald Trump cast in the role of eliminating baby Hitler simply to avoid confronting the flaws in their own ideological arguments.  They fear freedom. They need the collective. Individual liberty is against their own sense of self and purpose.

If you listen through their nonsense (not for the faint of heart), all of the panel apoplexy boils down to individual states in control of their own elections.  What they fear is federalism itself, which makes sense when you remind yourself there are two generations of leftists who were taught that collectivism (the we are the world crap), where only one centralized federal government, of all consuming power and authority, should be allowed to make decisions.  WATCH:

While it would be fun to debate a group like this, the core of their fear is a diminishing ability to control.  As CTH reminds frequently, the need for control is a reaction to fear. This applies in all levels of social society from elections to COVID responses.  Elites need control, because at their core they fear the inherent inequity of freedom.

Sally Struthers pleads into the camera for donations to feed the starving child in her arms in Africa… leftists swoon, and the U.N. activates.  Meanwhile, some pragmatist watching the commercial leans over to her husband and says, “I wonder why the cameraman didn’t just give the kid a sandwich”?

Control is a reaction to fear. Think in terms of politics and society – the fear behind leftist politics is the fear that someone might withhold things (opportunities, money, whatever) from me.  Fear that if you live your life in a way I dislike that it might affect my life. Fear that if you get that job, there will be nothing left for me. Fear that if you make tons of money, it means there’s less money out there for me. So, people who believe in leftist ideologies seek control as a means of trying to create guarantees and safeguards against those circumstances they fear.

The DC UniParty knows exactly how to exploit that fear, and both Democrats and Republicans love to provide those guarantees and safeguards.

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ABC/IPSOS are trying hard, very hard, to provide cover for Joe Biden. [IPSOS Release Here – pdf data Here]  However, even within what they call a “probability-based sample of pre-selected” Americans, aka “the knowledge panel“, the responses toward Joe Biden show a nationwide rejection of the White House occupant.

A heavily weighted sample of 28% support Biden’s efforts on inflation.  The rest of their pre-selected panel say he sucks.

Another weighted sample shows 36% think Biden is doing a good job on crime.  The rest of their pre-selected panel say no, Biden sucks.

(Via ABC) President Joe Biden is facing significant skepticism from the American public, with his job approval rating lagging across a range of major issues, including new lows for his handling of crime, gun violence and the economic recovery, a new ABC/Ipsos poll finds.

[…] More than two-thirds of Americans (69%) disapprove of how Biden is handling inflation (only 28% approve) while more than half (57%) disapprove of his handling of the economic recovery. 

[T]he survey also reveals weaknesses from Biden’s own party with only a slim majority of Democrats (54%) approving. Biden’s orbit is also hemorrhaging independent voters, with 71% disapproving of his handling of inflation.

[…] As the national murder rates see historic jumps, only a little more than 1 in 3 Americans (36%) approve of Biden’s handling of crime, down from 43% in an ABC News/Ipsos poll in late October. (read more)

The White House strategy to deny chaos created by their policies, and yet demanding that media report good things about Main Street collapsing, does not seem to be working.  Apparently, an overwhelming majority of Americans now believe what they see and feel for themselves.  (more…)

It was always Chris Wallace’s job to protect the DC interests by tamping down any sunlight upon corrupt UniParty politics.  That’s the reason why CTH called Wallace the deep swamp ‘gatekeeper‘ for a decade.

Wallace, the top player amid many such players at Fox News, was always a narrative platform provider to distribute media points that supported the institutional administrative state in DC.    However, thanks to the rise of pragmatic conservatism, a movement created by Donald Trump and commonly identified as MAGA, in recent years more people have caught on to how this insufferable media game is played.

Chris Wallace was increasingly becoming naked to his audience, and as a direct outcome, increasingly useless for propaganda distribution.  Today, the functionally obsolescent gatekeeper announced, effective immediately, he was leaving Fox News.  Moments later, CNN announced Chris Wallace was joining them.  In essence, Wallace moves from controlled opposition to direct opposition. WATCH:

The CNN welcome announcement is AVAILABLE HERE.

Wallace was not the first departure.  The increased public awareness of the manipulative construct that is Fox News (writ large) is the same reason why Steve Hayes and Jonah Goldberg were released.  That is also the same motive for Fox hiring Dan Bongino.

Although it is yet to be announced, the Fox News contracts for Sean Hannity and Laura Ingraham also will not be renewed after their current terms expire.   With more people finding more places where genuine source material facts are cited with sunlight, the ability for controlled opposition pundits to thrive is demonstrably lessened.

Traditional cable news is modifying itself accordingly with subscription based services.

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Several people have emailed asking for opinion on the Yahoo News article [READ HERE] outlining Ali Watkins as a victim of the horrible investigative apparatus that targets journalists who are involved in leaking and denying leaking, “Top Secret, Classified Information” from their narrative engineering positions.  {{Insert Eyeroll Here}}

Having read the lengthy article a few times, there are some interesting aspects and also a lot of nonsense in the grand scheme of things.  The motive for the article appears to be a defense against government investigating journalists, and a sub-sector of one of the intelligence agencies (Customs and Border Patrol) having a semi-rogue actor named Jeffrey Rambo. Ali Watkins was contacted by Rambo in 2017 based on his discovery of her connection to Senate Intelligence Committee Security Director James Wolfe.

You have to read the article [HERE] to see where the author, Jana Winter, is coming from.   Overall, the article is a little weird and defensive, and frames a position that secretive U.S. government agencies should not be conducting surveillance on U.S. journalists.   Much of the article is not too interesting to anyone who is not a journalist. However, there are a few parts worth noting. One paragraph specifically, which I’ll get to.

First… The author Mrs. Jana Winter and Ali Watkins are lying about a very key point.  Watkins claims James Wolfe never leaked any classified information to her, and Jana Winter makes that point repeatedly.  This is a lie, they are liars – [sue me].    James Wolfe did leak classified information to Ali Watkins, who was writing for Buzzfeed at the time, which Watkins then shared with her friends and peers in the media.   One specific classified leak was the Carter Page FISA application, which Wolfe leaked to Watkins in March of 2017.

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