Office and Management of Budget Director Russ Vought discusses the ongoing concerns with FED Chairman Jerome Powell and the FED’s ridiculous cost overruns for their offices in Washington, DC.  In addition, at the 6:00 mark of the video below, Vought discusses the first $9 billion rescission package that has passed the Senate, along with more rescission cuts that are likely to be submitted to congress.

Gotta give Director Vought a lot of credit for holding the fire to federal government spending.  This is a new tone for the DC spending guards, and they are certainly on notice the Trump administration is watching.  WATCH:

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A few datapoints to keep on a post-it note as things progress; starting with a rather significant new release that I think you will find interesting.

Approximately 12.3 million Mexicans live abroad, both legally and illegally, with 97% of them living and working in the United States, according to BBVA Research.  Last year Mexicans living abroad sent $64.75 billion back home in remittances, largely from Texas and California to states in central and western Mexico.

According to data just released, in April of this year remittances back to Mexico dropped 12.1%.  The Mexico central bank said April saw 8.1% fewer transactions than a year earlier, that’s down to 12.4 million transactions. For Mexico this could be a devastating trend.  [Sidenote: Remember, Trump is likely planning a complete overhaul of the USMCA later this year.]

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) -Remittances sent to Mexico slumped 12.1% in April compared to a year earlier, according to central bank data published on Monday, marking the steepest drop in over a decade as U.S. lawmakers mull a tax on such payments sent abroad.

The world’s second-largest recipient of remittances, Mexico receives these payments chiefly from migrants working in the neighboring United States. In April, Mexicans abroad sent fewer transactions and smaller payments, totaling $4.76 billion.

Analysts said the slump likely resulted from a broad crackdown on migration in the U.S. since President Donald Trump came to power in January, as authorities revoke some Biden-era protections and increase raids across the country.

The latest data marks the steepest year-on-year drop since September 2012, according to central bank data.

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Like I said last night, the Trump team followed their legal due diligence in several aspects of the tariff/trade deficit reset strategy, and it did not appear the New York trade court looked at any of the supportive material from the USTR and the Dept of Commerce.

Today, a full panel of U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit granted a “stay” and paused the lower court ruling pending full appeal outcome and possible Supreme Court intervention.  [Ruling pdf Here]  The President Trump trade tariffs remain in place, and the ridiculous court-ordered refunding of previously collected tariffs is set aside.

[Source pdf]

The court is suspending the lower court decision until the appeals motions are filed and reviewed.  The multinational corporations have until June 5th to file their responses to the appeal, and the Trump administration has until June 9th to file their full appeal brief.

VIA CNBC – A federal appeals court on Thursday granted the Trump administration’s request to temporarily pause a lower court ruling that struck down most of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

The Trump administration had earlier told the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit that it would seek “emergency relief” from the Supreme Court as soon as Friday if the tariff ruling was not quickly put on pause.

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President Trump is scheduled to announce the first negotiated trade deal in the global trade reset with the United States.  The deal is between the U.K and the USA, which is interesting as a UK free trade agreement was being worked on at the time COVID-19 hit in 2020.

Back in 2019 President Trump and then Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross were working two strategic trade negotiations at the same time that never materialized. The first was an FTA with the U.K and the second was with the EU.  The nuance of the U.K deal was favorable and structurally aligned to create leverage against the EU negotiations. It will be interesting to see how this one is structured.

From President Trump this morning on Truth Social: “The agreement with the United Kingdom is a full and comprehensive one that will cement the relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom for many years to come. Because of our long time history and allegiance together, it is a great honor to have the United Kingdom as our FIRST announcement. Many other deals, which are in serious stages of negotiation, to follow!”

UPDATE: VIDEO ADDED

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Hat Tip very dear friend of the Treehouse, Zurich Mike.

Switzerland is in a conundrum. More specifically, the Swiss National Bank is stuck betwixt two points that are also playing out in other stable western countries.  Exports to the USA account for over ten percent of the Swiss manufacturing base.

The Trump tariffs are putting pressure on Switzerland to drop the value of their currency as an offset to retain competitive pricing.  However, simultaneous to the tariffs, the Swiss Franc is being purchased by global investment groups and sovereign foreign countries as a safe harbor due to the stability of the currency, which is driving up the value of the franc.

The Swiss Franc is now at the highest point against the U.S dollar in decades. One franc is worth 1.21 dollars.  This makes their exports cost even more.  The Swiss government desperately needs to lower the value of their currency.  The Swiss central bank has already dropped interest rates to 0.25% and is now contemplating negative interest rates as a result.

SWITZERLAND – […] That is why many are speculating on a reaction from the Swiss National Bank (SNB). SNB Director Martin Schlegel could weaken the currency by selling the Swiss franc against the dollar and euro in order to support the export-oriented economy.

But this could provoke a backlash from Trump if he perceives the SNB’s intervention as currency manipulation. Even during Trump’s first term in office, Switzerland was on the US list of suspected currency manipulators.

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[AUTHORS NOTE: Having attended the ASEAN conference to make contacts, after a brief respite at home I spent the past several weeks traveling Southeast Asia to research the likely impact from Trump’s tariff and global trade reset. Visits included manufacturing and distribution facilities in the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Sri Lanka and South Korea. What I will share with you in the next few months is an overview from direct first-hand discussions, contrast against the MSM financial media outline.]

The predictable doomsday Wall Street Journal narrative includes a forecast for a massive drop in exports from China as shipping conglomerates begin to outline a drop in trans-pacific sea cargo and container carriers.

What I would say to concerned Americans is to filter out the political narrative and remind yourself of the expanded footprint throughout SE Asia that Beijing has already established.  Chinese companies, many of them subsidized by the CCP, are pre-positioned to begin transnational shipping. I have witnessed it first-hand.  However, here’s the WSJ narrative as it begins.

WSJ – The number of ships sailing from China to the U.S. laden with clothes, electronics, furniture and other goods is plunging, as an accelerating number of cargoes are canceled.

The scrapped sailings come after the Trump administration ratcheted up tariffs on China while giving a three-month reprieve on punitive levies for much of the rest of the world.

At the Port of Los Angeles, one of America’s biggest gateways for imports from China, executive director Gene Seroka told port officials Thursday that he expects a 35% drop in import volumes in two weeks “as essentially all shipments out of China for major retailers and manufacturers has ceased.”

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Speaking from Buenos Aires, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent talks about President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, countries trying to work out new trade deals, Argentina paying off its swap line with China and the need for the U.S. to focus on central America to block Chinese expansion. WATCH:

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The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) releases the Consumer Price Index for February [DATA HERE], reflecting a drop in the year-over-year inflation rate to the lowest level in four years.

The rate of inflation dropped significantly due to lower gasoline (-6.3%) and fuel prices, which directly impacts every middle-class worker.  The ripple effects (transportation, warehousing, etc.) from lowered gasoline prices is not yet embedded in the cost of goods, that should start to surface next month.

[BLS Table A]

[…] Consumer prices were up 2.4% in March from a year earlier, the Labor Department said Thursday, cooler than February’s gain of 2.8% and well below the 2.6% rise that economists expected.  

Prices excluding food and energy categories—the so-called core measure economists watch in an effort to better capture inflation’s underlying trend—rose 2.8%, below forecasts for a 3% increase. That was the smallest increase in the core measure since March 2021. (read more)

For those who have travelled the MAGAnomic weeds with us, you will note this is the way overall lower inflation starts to surface under Trump policy.  This is exactly what happened in 2017 and continued throughout late 2019 until COVID-19 hit.  President Trump’s economic policies drop the rate of inflation, and eventually lower prices.

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President Trump delivers remarks on geopolitical events, the MAGAnomic agenda and trade imbalance reset during a presidential signing session in the oval office.

Beginning with the commission of former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee as U.S. ambassador to Israel, President Trump walks through some executive orders on industrial capacity for shipbuilding and defense procurement. Following the executive orders President Trump begins the process to target former national security embeds who violated their oath of office, then takes questions from the media.

The question session begins at 34:00 of the video below (prompted):

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…”It’s not a negotiation, until it is.” 

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This is an excellent example of what Attorney General Pam Bondi should be focused on instead of her appearances on Fox News.

The Federal Housing and Finance Agency has released a public statement highlighting an internal review and investigation of conduct within Fannie Mae that has resulted in the termination of over 100 employees for “unethical conduct” including the “facilitation of fraud.”

If the FHMA is finding intentional fraud within the housing loan offices, those federal employees should be arrested and legally prosecuted for their conduct.  It is not enough to just fire people, there has to be legal accountability.  These are the government regulators for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Washington, D.C. — Today, the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency (U.S. Federal Housing FHFA) and Fannie Mae issued the following statement:

“In President Trump’s housing market, there is no room for fraud, mortgage fraud, or any other deceitful act that can jeopardize the safety and soundness of the housing industry,” said William J. Pulte, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Fannie Mae. “Since my swearing-in, we fired over 100 employees from Fannie Mae who we caught engaging in unethical conduct, including facilitating fraud, against our great company.  Anyone who commits fraud against Fannie Mae does so against the American people.”

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