A few datapoints to keep on a post-it note as things progress; starting with a rather significant new release that I think you will find interesting.
Approximately 12.3 million Mexicans live abroad, both legally and illegally, with 97% of them living and working in the United States, according to BBVA Research. Last year Mexicans living abroad sent $64.75 billion back home in remittances, largely from Texas and California to states in central and western Mexico.
According to data just released, in April of this year remittances back to Mexico dropped 12.1%. The Mexico central bank said April saw 8.1% fewer transactions than a year earlier, that’s down to 12.4 million transactions. For Mexico this could be a devastating trend. [Sidenote: Remember, Trump is likely planning a complete overhaul of the USMCA later this year.]
MEXICO CITY (Reuters) -Remittances sent to Mexico slumped 12.1% in April compared to a year earlier, according to central bank data published on Monday, marking the steepest drop in over a decade as U.S. lawmakers mull a tax on such payments sent abroad.
The world’s second-largest recipient of remittances, Mexico receives these payments chiefly from migrants working in the neighboring United States. In April, Mexicans abroad sent fewer transactions and smaller payments, totaling $4.76 billion.
Analysts said the slump likely resulted from a broad crackdown on migration in the U.S. since President Donald Trump came to power in January, as authorities revoke some Biden-era protections and increase raids across the country.
The latest data marks the steepest year-on-year drop since September 2012, according to central bank data.
Banco Base economic analysis director Gabriela Siller said April’s drop was likely due to a weaker U.S. job market and migrants’ fear of losing their jobs or being deported.
“The April remittance data is terrible,” she said in a post on X, attributing the drop to “the deterioration of the labor market in the U.S. and U.S. migrants’ fear of going out to work and sending their remittances, for fear of being deported.” (read more)
The Mexican domestic economy benefits from these remittances as the money flow from the United States directly fuels family purchases and the economy within Mexico. If significantly less money is flowing to Mexico due to voluntary exit and deportation, the Mexico domestic economy contracts.
Now, a few things to consider.
♦ First, a question I have often asked myself. What happens to U.S. economic data, statistically recorded based on identifiable datapoints, if the unquantifiable underground economy is forcibly reduced? If black market (cash) wages are removed, and that creates structural employment pressure leading to traditional (non-cash) wage increases, will the BEA/BLS wage increase -or income data- seem skewed?
Perhaps, just perhaps, we are seeing the answer. Last month, again recording for April, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that Personal income increased $210.1 billion (0.8 percent at a monthly rate). That’s a 9.6% annualized rate of potential wage increases. That is stunningly good.
♦ Second, Florida is now reporting the biggest decline in home prices in a decade. As reported in the New York Post, “the median price for all home types in Florida fell 1.7% in March from the same time last year, according to Redfin, a national real estate brokerage. That’s a small number with big implications.” … “Median prices for condos and co-ops fell about 7% in March.” In addition, available housing inventory is reaching record highs.
As the Hurricane season gets underway, right now in June 2025 things look a lot like June 2005. Florida was where the financial atom split in the housing crisis of ’07/08. The Florida housing values climaxed in December of 2005, then collapsed stunningly fast. However, the shockwave took until 2007 to reach nationwide impact. At least in the Florida housing market data, June 2025 looks an awful lot like June 2005.
There are a lot of factors influencing the Florida housing market, including declining in-migration, ridiculous insurance costs, high mortgage rates, high prices and now increases in unsold available inventory. However, when you overlay the potential slowdown in construction with a decline in available workers (repatriation), you get a slower overall economy to absorb that growing housing inventory.
Back to the main subject. If remittances to Mexico continue to shrink due to repatriation (voluntary and forced), the economy of Mexico could be squeezed significantly. This creates even more pressure on Mexico, and simultaneously more leverage for President Trump in a USMCA renegotiation.
It will be interesting to watch how all of this unfolds.
The remittances dropped because they are all here now.
lol. Hopefully not for long.
It is going to be nearly impossible to deport 30 million people. Cut their funds and they will leave voluntarily! We need to make E-verify the law of the land!
Haha. This was exactly my first thought.
True. And They gave credit/ debit cards!! Very simple!!
My first thought.
Actually, the opposite. Trump has stopped them from coming . The increases every year because the amount of illegals increased. And they are removing more and more.
Not anymore…………
The Hispanic populations is sending money back to relatives in Mexico. Sundance is right. Either the money is not being made in the first place or the population of ILLEGALS is dropping. I believe it is the former and if the pressure on American companies continues, the federal government quits giving ILLEGALS free stuff and if the Feds quit allowing ILLEGALS to have free medical they will start “self deporting”! To bad E-verify would not be totally implemented that would end this nonsense right now!
If anyone has spent time in an area with a significant hispanic population (I just moved from Odessa TX where I lived for 12 years), you know that both legal and illegal immigrants from Mexico send money home. A lot of money. For many that is the whole reason they are here. In a place like Odessa, much of the hispanic population moves quite fluidly between Mexico and the USA. In the time that I was there, there were more and more little stores where no one spoke English. I had relatives working in customer service in places like grocery stores and there was a continual tightening of the rules on services like Western Union which only served to make life hard, didn’t really slow the money flow down. Lots of “service infrastructure” to help people who are unbanked. Cash is still used a lot. If remissions to Mexico are down, that means something and it is most certainly not that they are all here now. Mexico does offer some big advantages such as availability of medicine and cheap health care like dentistry. If you have seen this up close at all, you’d be jealous of those that are able to move back and forth.
Where is “here”?
It’s possible that a good portion of the increase in personal income was due to the repeal of the windfall elimination provision and government pension offset in late 2024. A few million retirees received increased social security benefits, which also included a sizable retroactive payment. I’m just not sure when those retro payments were made. Watch the personal income reports for a few more months for better accuracy.
Good news, but false data.
“Approximately 12.3 million Mexicans live abroad, both legally and illegally, with 97% of them living and working in the United States, according to BBVA Research”
FALSE.
Yale did a study years ago estimated double this amount, plus the influx from Joe Biden.
“A new study, using mathematical modeling on a range of demographic and immigration operations data, suggests that the actual undocumented immigrant population may be more than 22 million.”
“…the researchers’ 95% probability range is 16 million to 29 million, with 22.1 million as the mean.”
Then add in 10 – 21 million via the Autopen administration.
This means 26 to 50 million illegal immigrants today.
https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/yale-study-finds-twice-as-many-undocumented-immigrants-as-previous-estimates
We’re only talking about Mexicans, not all illegals.
Mexicans only.
He’s your dedicated Happy Harper.
Seems to have followed you from the Twit.
Correct, estimates of 50% or more of our illegal immigrant population.
Yale? Lol. Harvard? Liars all!!!
Listing Left, shoals ahead.
Unsure of your implication. Even the Ivy League came up with a dramatically higher number; then add 3-4 more years migration; then add the Biden disaster (treason?).
My estimate as well.
you want to see splodey heads in gov’t….DJT should tax all remittances. i think this is in the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ for 5%…Mexico will be seething if it passes
Walmart charges fees to send money to Mexico..but only about half the cost to send money to other places in the U.S.
Right now the uniparty BBB only taxes it 3.5% which is ridiculously low. Should be at least 20% however, I would recommend 33%.
The higher it is, the more illegals would self deport but you want to balance it so we still get revenue while they’re making travel plans.
Set it too high and it all goes underground. Set it high enough to bite.
It’s not 3.5%, it’s 5% as Abe stated. And I agree with Felter: setting it too high forces it all underground and we won’t get any of it.
I buy my dog’s food @ a few Walmarts on the outskirts of a high-household income city & over the past few years I’ve noticed that I’m one of the few non-immigrant there. Walmart & other big box stores depend on this population for survival, so expect them to take a hard stand against any mass deportation actions.
Walmart will learn to adapt to a changing customer base
Great. Must have.
FIVE percent? I pay a combined close to 40% for all the taxes in my life, probably more with recent property tax hikes and sales taxes on inflated price points.
Remittances should be taxed at at least 50%. One dollar for every dollar sent out of the US.
Point!
Yes, what we need are more excise taxes on transferring funds. Or you think they would only apply this tax to remittances? Just wait to we get our CBDC and see what excises they can put on those transactions.
Yep … Funny how Mexicans think. They have a completely different view of “what’s right” vs. us Americans.
They complain about “illegal gringos” (very few) in MX, BUT think (as AMLO openly said) that it’s perfectly OK for Mexicans to come illegally to the US to extract our wealth to send home. If gringos working illegally in MX & sent the $$ home, they’d scream “cabron”!
It applies to almost every facet of life. I could go on and on, LOL.
Walmart charges 1/2 for money transfers to Mexico, compared to other places in the U.S.
They are biased against Ameicans
😳👍
That is a pretty substantial drop!
It’s like getting to go to Wharton on a 4 year scholarship for free. Economics and history are our majors and Trump and company are the professors.
Great, Mexico gets semi skilled workers, we get higher wages. Win win.
Yes, but in addition, I’m hearing rumblings in MX that many of the larger Foreign Direct Investment firms in MX are getting tired of the bribes, etc, the unstable law without any real access to a justice system, and thinking that it might be worth it to reshore some industry back to the US.
A couple questions from Main Street (though not the C o C kind of Main Street):
1) Available housing and prices even for those with equity could be knocked down a peg or 10?
2) Will there be an upswing in ‘native’ income for those who work in fields with a high concentration of ‘grey market’ labor?
A 12% decrease in payments sent by Mexicans working in the U.S. to their families south of the border doesn’t translate into an equivalent drop in those workers’ earning. A significant number of illegals working here might find it safer to spend that remittance money here in the U.S. without a paper trail leading ICE back to them.
That’s potentially an extra seven billion dollars being spent in America and with employers are making more money it makes sense that would have a positive influence on their workers’ wages.
This is all good for America and would help explain why the inflation/recession drums the alphabet soup legacy media have been beating so loudly isn’t happening!
But in a stunning bit of irony, a CNBC piece sends dire warnings of the POSSIBILITY of a shrinking GDP and a FEARS of a looming recession on the same day that the Federal Reserve projects a 4.6% GDP expansion in the 2nd quarter of 2025, which is far beyond anyone’s expectations!
I’m banking on Sundance’s 5% – 6% estimate!
About 15 years ago when my kids were little, we hired a recommended house keeper to help out once a month. After several months of hearing her speak in broken English about all the free welfare benefits she received from the Government all the while insisting on being paid in cash, we stopped using her.
Should have called ICE/INS on her.
Makes me sick! They need to be returned
May I add STAT!!
Hurrah! Let it increase dramatically in the future.
If your business model requires the use of illegal alien labor, you need to find a new business model!!
Remittance data could be quite useful for involuntary repatriation efforts.
Just saying.
It could be used to purchase bus or plane tickets so that it could be provided for “free”, just like everything else the government gives away. It’s gotta come from somewhere, so it may as well be them.
But for once, we benefit.
Yes, just what we need is more justification for the gov’t getting all our transaction data. Why not just get a CBDC and let the gov’t sift through all your data. Be very careful what you wish for people.
Step one: Turn off cards for young males.
Step two: Start taxing remittances going forward for those here semi-legally.
Step three: patrol the parking lots @ Home Depot & Lowe’s for loitering.
Bust Trump voters with construction companies full of them..
Throw in ,an E-Verify.
They work here so they can send money back home. We have not deported that many people so I wonder why remittances are down…are they working less? Are more voluntarily self deporting?
Possible.
How carefully are we tracking self-deportations?
Could be hanging onto cash to carry back with them perhaps.
I think self deportation is definitely happening. The MSM will never talk about it because it would validate President Trump’s policies. Looking around my local Sam’s Club, WalMart, Target etc. the number of Hispanic customers is noticeably lower than six months ago.
An area in Northern CA I go through on ocassion on the way to Costco – a barrio – is suspiciously quite at night. Taquerias, supermercados, day laborers, two 7 / 11s, etc.
Either folks are staying inside, or also numbers have dropped.
$ 9,999 Dollar’s can be carried into Mexico. Legally.
It could have something to do with DOGE cutting off the millions of credit cards that were strewn about the various agencies with multiple tens of thousands in limits. How many illegal immigrants were put on full benefits in the SNAP and Disability programs meant for citizens?
Don’t forget FEMA.
My initial thought is remittances should be progressively taxed. Much like our income tax system, the more they send per transaction, the higher the tax they pay. “Would you like to send $500 at 25%, or 5 separate $100 remittances for 20% apiece?“
Well even if the Mexicans are here, its still fair to assume the money is being spent here instead of feeding the Mexico economy. A small ray of sunshine in an otherwise dismal situation.
It could as easily be under their mattress anticipating an impending deportation, voluntary of course, else they might lose their stash.
It’s a combination, they typically send money home monthly or weekly. Lots of money transfer services.
I knew one guy, a tough stout physical man, who said he was going to buy a used Toyota pickup truck, two laptops for his daughters, strap $20,000 in cash to his body, buy a pistola in Tijuana, and make the trek home to buy house #2. This was about ten years ago.
Living in a cash-based economy all the while collecting free government benefits (because you have no traceable income) has proven to be very lucrative.
And no shame whatsoever about stealing from another’s economy. We are a big teat to them.
Remittance should have been / should be heavily taxed.
Which politicians receive donations from Western Union & other transfer companies?
Thank you, Sundance, for the hard data. In PDJT’s first term, I proffered to a group of moonbats that the wall could be paid for by ‘Mexico’ by putting a 10% tax on remittances. PDJT asked Paul Ryan for $18 billion, that amount would have been attainable in 3 years based on a $60 billion/year transfer amount (i.e., $6 billion per year)
Think about it, $60+ billion American dollars leaving for Mexico per year. Dollars not being spent here. Dollars not being used for sales tax, dollars not going for income tax.
Infuriating. Almost all Mexicans think it’s just fine to “grift the gringo”.
Good. This means our tax dollars are not going to help prop up the communistic Mexican cartel government.
Huh. You mean the USA Communist gobermnt. Do some research on the Mexican people. A Christian nation. Term limits. Voter ID required in order to vote. Paper ballots. Entiendo?
Gracias Dios
Yeah, Bob. We see you. You change your name here on occasion, but we know who you are.
Me gusta el mensaje– NO MAS!!!
¡Yo también!
…
Remittances from the US make up about 4.5% of Mexico’s GDP
The population of Mexico is approx 130M. So about 10% of their entire population is living illegally in the USA. That isn’t even counting Mexicans who got amnesty in the past, who were naturalized or anchor-babies eligible for both US and Mexican citizenships.
Every illegal that sends back remittances is supporting multiple people back home. It’s likely at least 25-30% of the entire population of Mexico being supported by money earned in the US or sent-back from the US.
It would be interesting to see the how much MATCHING Social Security and Medicare Matching Taxes the Employers of these immigrants actually paid.
“I’ll take ‘Zero Percent’ for $100, Alex.”
Yes … Confiscate it and reduce the debt.
Deport illegal aliens occupying housing = home prices and rents come down
Deport illegal aliens working for sub-market wages = more entry-level jobs for Americans
This started back in 2009 … one could follow the rise in the unemployment trend among those 15-22 years old’s, who often took these jobs as entry and part time work to learn the ropes of “working a job”. Under Obama, Employers started hiring FULL TIME immigrants to replace the part time 15-22 year old’s at part time wages for a “steady force” with no turn-over, training and disciplinary worries.
sshhh — you don’t want the ‘new Plantation owners’ to get angry …
It actually hit us when I lived in CA in 1988, after the horrible 1986 IRCA law. It ruined the construction trades then, and the construction unions were hand-in-glove with all the illegals. Bankrupted the retirement benefits funds that LEGAL labor had paid into their entire lives.
Sundance,
I suspect that you may be conflating the effects of new-ish capital requirements on the part of condo associations pursuant to the Champlain towers collapse in 2021 with a general downturn in real estate. I believe condo prices are depressed as a result of special assessments of possibly 6 figures per owner, and not a portent of general real estate price crash.
A market correction may be on the way, but this data point may be misplaced.
Another data point … 1+ year(s) ago, Remittances to Mexico from the US accounted for a measurable 4-5% of the Mexican National Economy.
Why are these NOT taxed??
At least TAX the Wire Services and Banks making foreign transfers, so they pass the burden onto those sending the money.
Saw this posted above while I was typing .. sorry.
Be somewhat careful using the Florida housing market as equatable to 2005 or the rest of the nation since, in the meantime, the legislature passed the Surfside condo inspection law, stagnating the co do market bigot for senior/middle class buyers, and just the utter inability to get new construction underway. It routinely is taking 24-plus months to get a basic house built. And our area upgraded their window codes post Helene from 110 mph to 160 hurricane wind ratings. To replace my front door with Pella windowpane door and a transom is running nearly 20k. Finally redoing the landscape damage post Helene we would have liked to pay someone but you can’t even get quotes or a start date. After being ghosted by so many companies we did the work ourselves.
With recent work by DOGE to seek out fraud and abuse, especially in the criminal invaders getting benefits, they may need to keep more of the money they get in the underground market place. Maybe even some returning to Mexico on their own. Personally I think a 25%-50% remittance fee wouldn’t go amiss.
Excellent point. The only way Illegal Invaders can stay here going forward is if Emergency Rooms keep rolling out the Red – scratch that, Purple Carpet for them at our Expense while sick and injured Citizens grovel on the floor of Hospital waiting rooms dying for Medical Attention.
At least for the next couple years Illegals can’t just go back to Mexico or where ever real quick for some Safe and Effective Medical Treatment on the cheap and expect to be able to slip back into the Republic like Greased Lightning with impunity.
There certainly are less short brown lads jumping out of jacked up diesel pickups at the gas station at 5 AM.
The housing debacle here in Florida does feel very “‘06” if you ask me.. although I don’t get the sense as many people are on the verge of default (I could be wrong) back in 06 the vibrations of anxiety and foreboding was so thick among mortgage holders in Central Florida you could cut them with a 2×4.
It’d be really nice to see our neighborhood meth house with less 24 hour a day foot, bicycle, atv and passenger car traffic.
While there may not be a sea of humanity flooding the Border the hard dope shipments are showing no signs of slowing.
I’ve mentioned here before that the foreign men constantly crowding around the money exchange counter at the local Mexican market have disappeared. It’s like a someone flipped a switch and they all disappeared literally overnight after Inauguration Day.
Just as we have no way to measure the # of incoming illegals that didn’t immediately surrender to the nearest ice agent (got-aways?) we have no way to measure how many self deporting, “on their own” but this drop in remittances might be a valid indicator.
While I am all for giving Tom Homan more $ and resources, I do not fault the deportation/remigration efforts at all.
I think the PR campaign is encouraging a lot of self deporting, which costs us not one dime.
Focus MAINLY on the violent criminals, etc. and major workplace raids, and let those who “just came here to work” get the message and go home.
Remember … These are the felonies that the average illegal committee while here..
1) 2nd illegal entry
2l Using forged docs
3) Identity theft
4) I-9 perjury
5) SS fraud
Using forged docs, each set, each use is one felony, so multiple felonies.
They’re not only illegal aliens, they’re UNADJUDICATED FELONS.
“Analysts said the slump likely resulted from a broad crackdown on
migrationillegal immigration in the U.S. since President Donald Trump came to power in January”Fixed.
This condo owner in SW Florida sees the landscapers at his community who do not speak a word of English. Many look to be from South America as well as Mexico. Also, the men who replaced the roof were non-English speaking.
It will be interesting to see who replaces these workers.
I’ve cut grass trimmed hedges, planted flowers, trees, pulled weeds and aquatic vegetation and tended vegetables commercially for most of my life in Florida as well as worked different phases of construction.
It will indeed be very interesting to see who steps into the humid void to fill the “Dirty, Dangerous, Demeaning” lines of work now that there is a squeeze on brown slave labor.
Remember, many working class whites in Florida are dead from overdoses, sitting in prison from selling hard dope, or are actively using in one of our countless Tent Cities, neatly tucked into the woods behind Strip Malls and Big Box Stores.
I remember when those beginner construction jobs went to American kids, along with all kinds of jobs that helped pay for college.
Excellent news.
Another possibility is that, anticipating a tax on remittances, the cartels have copied the Somali money transfer model bypassing governments ability to monitor/tax the flows. Jose gives his $100 cash to US-residing cartel rep Juan who texts Roberto in Mexico to pay Miguel in Oaxaca in cash minus a handling fee less than what Western Union would charge. They have more than enough liquidity to back such an enterprise.
Highly Plausible..
Hawaladar is what that’s called in the middle east. Terrorist networks use that method of finance.
Yes, it’s a variation on the old Hawala method, devised by Arab traders. Been very effective for a long time.
Insightful post. I had kinda suspected that.
There is absolutely no reason that a significant tax should not be levied on these remittances, 20% at least. That would help pay for the cost to the American taxpayer for the welfare benefits that illegals currently receive. That might also cause more self-depotations.
If they were serious about self-deportations remittances would be top 2 in the toolbox of accomplishing that. Anyone in construction or agriculture knows this.
Remember to demand from congress that the executive orders on illegal immigration are codified into law. The issue needs to be resolved permanently and not dependent on any one executive branch leader. The people voted to provide a mandate through which to tackle this issue permanently (not piecemeal) and delivered congress to do it swiftly. While the executive branch can accomplish a lot, all of this work can disappear from administration to administration and then be utilized as a carrot issue that divides the country, then is rewarded to the people for one candidate. Don’t let politicians drag this issue out further or use it as a wedge or carrot. Demand it is codified into law by the current exec admin and congress. Make them deliver on this mandate. The American people deserve to have all of the money, energy, staff, etc. currently being used on this issue (including giving “self-deportees” a thousand dollars and free flights) to issues the American people need resolved.