Gary Cohn is connected to the banking and finance industry, well connected.  In this interview with Face The Nation earlier today, Cohn is discussing the current status of First Republic Bank, another big player in the California banking system that is about to collapse.  Cohn notes something at the 1:15 mark that just seems obvious yet is undiscussed in most outlines of the FRB discussion.

Six weeks ago, in an effort organized by the FDIC, $30 billion was pushed into FRB by eleven larger banks to stabilize it.  However, the only thing that infusion of capital did was allow institutional depositors time and ability to withdraw their funds. A complete racket.  Once the at-risk group exits, suddenly the collapse is back on the tee.  WATCH:

[Transcript] – MARGARET BRENNAN: We want to turn now to Gary Cohn, who is the vice chairman of IBM, former Goldman Sachs president and a former Trump administration top economic adviser. Good morning to you. Lots of titles, Gary, Lots of experience. That’s why we like having you here. I want to ask you about what’s happening with First Republic. It’s been under pressure. We know they’ve been looking for a buyer, the FDIC, the government is looking to arrange, moving it into government control and then maybe selling it. What are you hearing about how this would roll out?

GARY COHN: Margaret, thanks for having me. I think you’re portraying the situation as we find ourselves again on a weekend. As we closed business of Friday, the FDIC was in a process of looking for acquirers or bidders for the assets over the course of the weekend. I think the FDIC has asked potentially three banks for their final bids for the entire bank. The FDIC would prefer to sell the bank in its entirety than the pieces. What will most likely happen is the FDIC will seize control and then simultaneously resell the asset to the successful bidder. I think that will happen sometime later this afternoon before the markets open in Asia this evening.

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There’s something sketchy afoot in the world of high finance.  Following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the most likely first contagion bank would have been First Republic Bank; both California banks carried similar vulnerabilities.  However, once the Treasury Dept agreed to cover all deposits, even those unsecured deposits over the $250k FDIC insurance protection, suddenly First Republic Bank survived.

After the FDIC announcement, a group of 11 larger banks lent First Republic a tranche of money ($30 billion) to secure its holdings and help stabilize it.  Approximately six weeks passed, suspiciously perhaps the burn rate for the tranche in combination with risk averse exits says I, and suddenly First Republic starts destabilizing again.  [Insert Suspicious Cat here]

The First Republic stock value collapsed further last week, and the FDIC is now trying to get a takeover bid secured before government regulators are forced into a position of receivership.   I’m not dialed in to the banking industry, but it looks to me like the six-week interim phase was an agreement to give the illusion of stability and afford time for highly exposed, ¹likely well connected, stakeholders to exit.

With the Treasury taking the prior SVB position, thereby securing all deposits regardless of scope, the FDIC is now on the hook if the collapse includes a govt takeover.  The FDIC seems to be playing hot potato and looking for a buyer.  Additionally, the FDIC is asking JP Morgan-Chase if they are interested.  JPMorgan holds more than 10% of all deposit funds in U.S. banking.  From a regulatory position, JPM cannot legally take any more institutional deposits.  So, what gives?  It is all sketchy, all of it.

(Bloomberg) — The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. has asked banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co., PNC Financial Services Group Inc., US Bancorp and Bank of America Corp. to submit final bids for First Republic Bank by Sunday after gauging initial interest earlier in the week, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

The regulator reached out to some banks late Thursday seeking indications of interest, including a proposed price and an estimated cost to the agency’s deposit insurance fund. Based on submissions received Friday, the regulator invited some of those firms and others to the next step in the bidding process, the people said, asking not to be named discussing the confidential talks.

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Stop looking at the Washington DC Potemkin village; start looking at the financial system behind it that controls it.

You may recently have seen this story:

WASHINGTON DC – Homebuyers with good credit scores will soon encounter a costly surprise: a new federal rule forcing them to pay higher mortgage rates and fees to subsidize people with riskier credit ratings who are also in the market to buy houses.

The fee changes will go into effect May 1 as part of the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s push for affordable housing, and they will affect mortgages originating at private banks across the country. The federally backed home mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will enact the loan-level price adjustments, or LLPAs.

Mortgage industry specialists say homebuyers with credit scores of 680 or higher will pay, for example, about $40 per month more on a home loan of $400,000. Homebuyers who make down payments of 15% to 20% will get socked with the largest fees. (read more)

If you focus on the DC Potemkin Village, you view this move through the prism of Biden’s FHFA creating a policy to favor low-income (nonwhite) voters by punishing stable credit worthy borrowers.  That’s what the powers who control the levers, and create policy, want us to focus on.  That’s not what is going on.

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As higher interest rates continue to put pressure on borrowers, the ability of the average person to afford a mortgage diminishes.  Higher mortgage rates lead to downward pressure on residential home values as fewer borrowers can afford higher payments.  Simultaneously, commercial real estate is dropping in value as vacancies continue increasing.

Put both of these issues together and already tenuous banks holding mortgage bonds as assets can become more unstable.

This dynamic creates the continual tremors in the background of an economy already suffering from high inflation and low consumer purchasing of durable goods.

A perfect storm starts to realize.

(Wall Street Journal) U.S. existing-home sales decreased 2.4% in March from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.44 million, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. March sales fell 22% from a year earlier.

March marked the 13th time in the previous 14 months that sales have slowed. The housing market had a surprisingly strong February, when sales rose a revised 13.75% from the previous month. But after mortgage rates ticked higher, March sales resumed the extended period of declines.

The housing market’s slowdown is now starting to weigh on prices, which have fallen on an annual basis for two consecutive months for the first time in 11 years. The national median existing-home price decline of 0.9% in March from a year earlier to $375,700 was the biggest year-over-year price drop since January 2012, NAR said.

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Almost as soon as German Chancellor Olaf Schulz said, “The banking system is stable in Europe – Generally, I think we are in good shape,” shares of German-based Deutsche Bank began dropping.

After a Friday loss of 14%, the bank came back to close -9.8%, and on the heels of the Credit Suisse collapse and subsequent purchase, concerns are still reverberating.

BRUSSELS (AP) — European Union leaders Friday played down the risk of a banking crisis developing from recent global financial turbulence and hitting the economy even harder than the energy crunch tied to Russia’s war in Ukraine.

After a meeting in Brussels, the EU government heads said lenders in Europe are generally in sound health and in a position to weather a combination of rising interest rates and slowing economic growth.

“The banking system is stable in Europe,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told reporters after the summit. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said: “Generally, I think we are in good shape.”

The EU deliberations came in the wake of U.S. regulators’ shutdown of two U.S. banks, including Silicon Valley Bank, and a Swiss-orchestrated takeover of troubled lender Credit Suisse by rival UBS.

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At a certain point in the economics of the great pretending cycle, one must wonder what circles they live in.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced another quarter-point interest rate hike and simultaneously noted the banking crisis will likely lead to tighter credit and borrowing for businesses on Main Street…. thereby further reducing the U.S. economic output.  Yet here we are again, and not a single economic or financial pundit is even talking about the origin of the inflation the Fed action is pretending to address, the spike in energy prices.

At the core of the Biden policy issue that creates inflation, is the energy policy that has driven oil, gas, home heating, electricity and manufacturing/farming costs through the roof.  The blocking of energy resource development/production is the top issue leading to massive increases in consumer prices overall.  The Biden energy policy is entirely ignored by a federal reserve attempting to shrink inflation.

Follow the bouncing ball of consequence.

Biden restricts energy development [Main St Suffers].  Prices skyrocket [Main St Suffers]. The fed raises interest rates in an effort to reduce the economic activity to meet the lowered production of energy resource development [Main St Suffers].  The result of the interest rate hike creates liquidity issues for banks holding treasury securities [Main St Suffers].  The banks then reduce credit lines, reduce lending and tighten borrowing to match their lowered liquidity [Main St Suffers].

The Fed then notes further increases in rates may pause as they await the outcome of restricted banking credit and lending from the rate hikes previously installed.  Nowhere in any of this is anyone talking about the nucleus of the issue – the stupid energy policy.  The great pretending continues in the West, while smiling panda lunches with Vladimir Putin.

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The European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates again today, while simultaneously promising to support further bank bailouts that might come as an outcome of raising the rates again.   In the bigger picture there are two dynamics supported by the ECB playing out.

The first issue is the ideological effort to change the economic models based on climate change.  The Build Back Better (Green New Deal) policy, a traditional energy production control effort, is being supported by the ECB effort to shrink the EU economy to meet the rate of diminished energy production.  Make the economy smaller to meet the lower energy production rate.

Lowered energy production (oil, coal and natural gas) has raised energy prices; this is the fuel behind supply side inflation.  The Western (policy-created) energy inflation is hitting every aspect of the EU, US and western global economy.  The prices of all downstream goods and services have risen dramatically as a result.  The European banks are not going to stop trying to make the economy smaller just because banks are failing.  That brings us to the second issue.

Like the first issue with BBB controls, the World Economic Forum action plan for government also includes the creation of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).  The collapsing of the traditional banking system supports the agenda to create CBDCs.  Raising interest rates puts more pressure on already weak banks.  This is a feature not a flaw of the intent.

Shifting the economy from traditional oil, coal and natural gas is one control aspect (climate change).  Shifting the banking system from traditional currency to central bank digital currencies is the second control aspect (total govt financial control).   The banking instability is the crisis that facilitates the CBDC solution.   Ergo, continue raising rates and continue making the crisis more useful.

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Small to medium sized banks along with credit unions are the best vehicle for Main Street USA small businesses.  Somehow in all the conversations about banking customers, this little factoid is seemingly, perhaps purposefully, overlooked.   WATCH:

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Before getting to the details of the Credit Suisse issue, it is worth taking a bigger geopolitical context to the dynamic.  The initial backstop sought by Credit Suisse was from the Saudi National Bank; however, SNB Chairman Ammar Abdul Wahed Al Khudairy refused more lending {LINK}.

This is where we need to keep the BRICS -vs- WEF dynamic in mind and consider that ideologically there is a conflict between the current agenda of the ‘western financial system’ (climate change) and the traditional energy developers.  This conflict has been playing out not only in the energy sector, but also the dynamic of support for Russia (an OPEC+ member) against the western sanction regime.  Ultimately, supporting Russia’s battle against NATO encroachments.

Russia, Saudi Arabia and China are geopolitically aligned in interest against the western financial system.  As a consequence, when western banks find themselves in need of capital and cash, there is a layered geopolitical dynamic in the background to Saudi refusal that must be considered.

With multiple western banks now in trouble, Credit Suisse is also exposed, and, like U.S. Treasury/Fed intervention in America, the Swiss central bank has stepped in to backstop the looming collapse.

In the big picture, we are seeing the ramifications of the ‘Build Back Better‘ agenda impacting the banking and finance sector which spearheaded it.  I am not seeing this discussed anywhere, as the western governments of the collapsing banks are being forced to intervene.

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Last week, South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem broadcast a warning on the Tucker Carlson show about a bill that passed her State House and Senate that she was forced to veto because it changed the definition of money and banned non-govt-issued cryptocurrency like Bitcoin. {Broadcast Warning Here}

The bill stems from the generally innocuous Uniform Commercial Code (UCC), which Daniel Horowitz describes as, “a set of standards to facilitate interstate sales and commercial transactions such that all definitions pertaining to such commerce are uniform and clearly understood.”  It looks like Horowitz was the first to transmit the public warning, as identified by two members of the South Dakota House Freedom Caucus, and then Kristi Noem became aware – thus the veto.

Governor Noem warned that the bill was already passing through several states, and if you look at the UCC Amendment tracking page [DATA HERE], she is correct.  The states in green on the map below are states where the UCC revision bill has already been introduced.

As Daniel Horowitz notes in his initial warning dated March 2, 2023:

“The revisions to Article I are very clear now that Bitcoin will not be money, because even though the definition provides for electronic money … it says that an asset that is adopted by a government as its medium of exchange will not qualify as money … if the electronic asset, such as Bitcoin, existed before it was adopted by the government. So Bitcoin, of course, exists today; it existed before El Salvador adopted it as its currency … so it will never be money for UCC purposes. The same for other kinds of crypto currencies.” So there you have it. Officials clearly mean to pave the way for CBDC while explicitly barring all competition. (more)

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