The rapid change in Ursula von der Leyen now starts to make sense.  According to a press release [SEE HERE] from European Big Pharma, they recently had a meeting with the EU Komisar and threatened to leave Europe if the trade system is not renegotiated quickly.

President Trump is on the cusp of announcing a big change in tariffs against foreign pharmaceutical companies in an effort to get the manufacturing of medicines brought back to the USA.  Details are soon to surface.

In a proactive move, the European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations (EFPIA), went to the European Commission (EC) yesterday to hold talks with von der Leyen, calling for radical change and holding the threat of an exodus to the U.S. over the EC president’s head.

PRESS RELEASE – Today, CEOs of the research-based pharmaceutical industry issued a stark warning to President von der Leyen that unless Europe delivers rapid, radical policy change then pharmaceutical research, development and manufacturing is increasingly likely to be directed towards the US.

A survey of EFPIA member companies conducted last week – to which 18 international large and medium-sized innovative companies responded – identified as much as 85% of capital expenditure investments (approximately €50.6 billion) and as much as 50% of R&D expenditure (approximately €52.6 billion) potentially at risk. This is out of a current combined total of €164.8 billion in investments planned for the period 2025-2029 in the EU-27 territory. Over the next three months, companies that responded estimate that a total of €16.5 billion i.e. 10% of the total investment plans is at risk.

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Within the Executive Order modifying the April 2nd global reciprocal tariffs [SEE HERE] section #4, we note a massive increase in the duty fees for mailed products from China formerly shipped under ‘de minimis’ rules.

REMINDER: The de minimis loophole comes from back in the 1930s. The idea back then was, say you went on a vacation to Paris, you shouldn’t have to file customs paperwork or pay taxes if you decided to ship some little Eiffel Tower statues to your friends back home.

Congress in 2015 then raised the de minimis threshold from $200 to $800. However, the e-commerce world exploded, and Chinese companies began using the de minimis loophole to ship cheap goods (ex. Temu and Shein) into the USA direct to consumers without paying any customs duty.

On April 2nd, as part of the global trade reset and tariff structure, President Trump revoked authorization for Chinese goods to transfer to the USA using the de minimis rule. The de minimis exemption was cancelled for all products coming out of China. The rule change only targeted China and Chinese shippers. No one else. [XO HERE]

Yesterday, as part of the modification to Executive Order #14257, President Trump has increased the baseline tariff for product mailed from China [de minimis tariff] from 30 90 percent to 120%.

Mailed products from China now face a 120% tariff.  Additionally, minimum tariff amounts increased from $75 to $100 effective May 1st, and from $150 to $2oo effective June 1st.  [See Section #4]

Example: If you order a $20 shirt from China effective June 1st, you will pay $220.  $20 for the shirt, and $200 minimum tariff.

There is no way Chinese E-Commerce can survive this level of tariff/duty fees.

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The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) releases the Consumer Price Index for February [DATA HERE], reflecting a drop in the year-over-year inflation rate to the lowest level in four years.

The rate of inflation dropped significantly due to lower gasoline (-6.3%) and fuel prices, which directly impacts every middle-class worker.  The ripple effects (transportation, warehousing, etc.) from lowered gasoline prices is not yet embedded in the cost of goods, that should start to surface next month.

[BLS Table A]

[…] Consumer prices were up 2.4% in March from a year earlier, the Labor Department said Thursday, cooler than February’s gain of 2.8% and well below the 2.6% rise that economists expected.  

Prices excluding food and energy categories—the so-called core measure economists watch in an effort to better capture inflation’s underlying trend—rose 2.8%, below forecasts for a 3% increase. That was the smallest increase in the core measure since March 2021. (read more)

For those who have travelled the MAGAnomic weeds with us, you will note this is the way overall lower inflation starts to surface under Trump policy.  This is exactly what happened in 2017 and continued throughout late 2019 until COVID-19 hit.  President Trump’s economic policies drop the rate of inflation, and eventually lower prices.

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Komrade Ursula von der Leyen represents the European Commission command and control authority, regardless of whether the individual members within the containment zone agree with the HQ in Brussels.

Komisar von der Leyen informs the union members that she has decided to pause the retaliation tariffs against the USA, based on the 90-day pause announced by President Trump.  However, in actuality there’s not much difference even within the pause as the German/EU autos are still tariffed (25%) and the steel and Aluminum tariffs’ (25%) still apply.

The only gain from yesterday’s modification in the global tariff regime for the EU was a switch from 20% EU tariff to a baseline 10% tariff during the pause.

The total EU relief is 10% for 90-days; but that was enough for Komrade Ursula to mount her high-horse and claim magnanimity status.

According to von der Leyen, “if negotiations are not satisfactory, our countermeasures will kick in.”[SOURCE]

“I welcome President Trump’s announcement to pause reciprocal tariffs. It’s an important step towards stabilizing the global economy.

Clear, predictable conditions are essential for trade and supply chains to function.

Tariffs are taxes that only hurt businesses and consumers. That’s why I’ve consistently advocated for a zero-for-zero tariff agreement between the European Union and the United States.

The European Union remains committed to constructive negotiations with the United States, with the goal of achieving frictionless and mutually beneficial trade.

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When President Trump announced the 90-day pause in combination with the increase in tariffs against China, there was a background element missed by many.

At the moment President Trump triggered the public announcement, U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer was testifying to congress.

President Trump is not a jerk.  Donald Trump would not put a top executive Greer in that optically vulnerable position if USTR Greer was the tip of the spear, it’s just bad business form.

The timing and background indicate something more substantial.  For what we are calling ‘the BIG UGLY’ Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is the point, Greer is a functionary.  It’s a shift from the Term-1 approach, because the global trade reset is magnitudes bigger and more substantive.

This approach would also explain why Robert Lighthizer was not reenlisted in Term-2.  If Lighthizer was in Greer’s chair in front of congress at the moment of the public announcement, he would have been furious and rightly so.  Lighthizer and Wilbur Ross were the tip of the spear in term-1, Lighthizer facing the region of Asia and Ross facing Europe; but the same strategy is not present in term-2.

In the Term-2 trade reset, the entire globe is being targeted simultaneously.  Enter, the U.S. Treasury Secretary in a bigger, more substantive, and much more prominent role due to the scale of the trade reset.

This trade approach is much bigger, obviously. As the nuclear-level trade detonation takes place, Secretary Bessent is in control of both the financial market response and the core finances of the USA as it relates to the reverberations.

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In an effort to keep the Daily Open Thread a little more open topic we are going to start a new daily thread for “Presidential Politics”. Please use this thread to post anything relating to the Donald Trump Administration and Presidency.

This thread will refresh daily and appear above the Open Discussion Thread.

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Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy Name. Thy kingdom come. THY WILL BE DONE, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread. And forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but DELIVER US FROM EVIL.

For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen †

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President Trump delivers remarks on geopolitical events, the MAGAnomic agenda and trade imbalance reset during a presidential signing session in the oval office.

Beginning with the commission of former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee as U.S. ambassador to Israel, President Trump walks through some executive orders on industrial capacity for shipbuilding and defense procurement. Following the executive orders President Trump begins the process to target former national security embeds who violated their oath of office, then takes questions from the media.

The question session begins at 34:00 of the video below (prompted):

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…”It’s not a negotiation, until it is.” 

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White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hold press gaggle outside the White House. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent gives details on the China tariff increase and the 90- day tariff pause on other countries.

As outlined in the press remarks, 75 countries have contacted the White House to renegotiate their access to the U.S. consumer market.  Secretary Bessent noted, each of these new trade agreements needs to be handled independently and “President Trump wants to be personally involved in each one. That’s why there is a 90-day pause.”

Bessent revisited his prior comments and warning to global trade partners about not retaliating to last week’s announcement.  The hostile response from China was the triggering mechanism for the tariff increase. WATCH:

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The first part of this announcement is clear, Chinese tariffs are now raised to 125% effective immediately.  The latter part of this announcement is less clear; however, it appears that all other trading nations have their reciprocal tariffs lowered to 10% for a period of 90-days.

“Based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets, I am hereby raising the Tariff charged to China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately. At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realize that the days of ripping off the U.S.A., and other Countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable.

Conversely, and based on the fact that more than 75 Countries have called Representatives of the United States, including the Departments of Commerce, Treasury, and the USTR, to negotiate a solution to the subjects being discussed relative to Trade, Trade Barriers, Tariffs, Currency Manipulation, and Non Monetary Tariffs, and that these Countries have not, at my strong suggestion, retaliated in any way, shape, or form against the United States, I have authorized a 90 day PAUSE, and a substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff during this period, of 10%, also effective immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”  [SOURCE]

♦ Steel and Aluminum tariffs of 25% remain for all.

♦ Auto tariffs of 25% remain for all.

♦ Reciprocal tariffs 10% for all, 125% for China.

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