Mohamed El-Erian, the chief economic adviser for Allianz, got the inflation problem correct; states a forecast in line with CTH Main Street review, but then falls short on his political outlook for the solution.
Within the interview, El-Erian predicts inflation at the current CPI measure will increase from current 7.9% to over 10% this year. That aspect is in alignment with CTH review at ground level.
Current real inflation is more than 15% across the board, if you use the CPI methodology we were using in the 70’s and 80’s. Both the scale and the speed of the current price increases are historic. That is why you are seeing prices on retail items jumping so high, so fast. The price increases on highly consumable goods are in the 15 to 20% range. WATCH:
An increase to over 10%, using current CPI measures, equals an increase of 25 to 30% in actual price (using historic measures). Keep in mind, we have already passed through a wave of backward-looking inflation in the 25 to 30% range. El-Erian is predicting a duplication of that scale into the remainder of 2022, I agree. The 2020 $3 item became the 2021 $4 item, which will now become the 2022 $5.50 item. That is our reality. It will not get better.
Where we differ from El-Erian is on the wage side and the political analysis. Any political intervention to create govt subsidy with the goal to generate a higher workforce will backfire – bigly. Recent historic employment statistics have not yet reflected the demand side decline in goods. The employment data is skewed and useless because of the COVID mitigation impact on jobs.

What the Mueller probe was to President Trump, the J6 Committee is to the MAGA movement.
“This is no small thing, to restore a republic after it has fallen into corruption. I have studied history for years and I cannot recall it ever happening. It may be that our task is impossible. Yet, if we do not try then how will we know it can’t be done? And if we do not try, it most certainly won’t be done. The Founders’ Republic, and the larger war for western civilization, will be lost.”
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy Name. Thy kingdom come. THY WILL BE DONE, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread. And forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but DELIVER US FROM EVIL.