This is an interesting potential shift in energy position for the European Union. There has been zero investment by the EU nations in oil refining capacity. Simultaneously, Europe is now realizing they need diesel and jet fuel.

Under the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), refineries have an ever-diminishing cap on carbon emissions, and they receive fewer ‘free’ pollution allowances over time.

This means oil refining costs go up steadily, increasing the cost of operating the dirty carbon facilities, while these same refineries must adhere to stricter environmental rules and pollution limits under the Industrial Emissions Directive (IED). The entire regulatory system was created to eliminate gasoline, diesel and eventually jet fuel.

As the EU is now discovering, their climate change policies have been executed but the global and EU drop in demand has not occurred at the same pace. The EU is now in a position where the percentage of their own oil refining production is lower than their needs. More energy dependency has been created.

With the EU energy analysts now saying they don’t have the fuel capacity to support the political demands for a war with Russia, in combination with President Trump continually affirming the U.S. will not get involved in any expanded conflict, the European Union is now reevaluating how to increase domestic fuel production.

EUROPE – Over the past couple of decades, Europe has pursued some of the world’s most ambitious clean energy policies, aiming to become the first climate-neutral continent by 2050. Hardly surprisingly, Europe is now further along the clean energy transition compared to its western peers, with renewables accounting for roughly half of the continent’s power mix compared to about 26% by the U.S. However, Europe is now being forced to reckon with its decision to ditch some of its fossil fuel assets as yet another global energy crisis unfolds just years after the 2022 energy crisis.

[…] the continent has been forced to rely more heavily on imported refined products, exposing it to geopolitical risks. The Iran and Ukraine wars have led to a spike in oil and gas prices, with EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen terming geopolitical instability and the prolonged diesel squeeze a “wake-up call” for the bloc.

[…] Central European nations like Poland, Czechia, and Slovakia have been pressuring the European Commission to establish a long-term protective strategy for Europe’s oil refineries. They have called for refineries to be protected from carbon leakage and given access to EU funds to upgrade.

[…] now, Brussels is looking to rethink its long-standing approach to the domestic oil-refining industry. On Wednesday, the European Commission launched the first High-Level Dialogue with the European oil refining sector. Co-chaired by Dan Jørgensen (Commissioner for Energy and Housing) and Andrius Kubilius (Commissioner for Defence and Space), the forum discussed Europe’s energy security, industrial competitiveness and defense readiness amid recurring geopolitical disruptions. Participants mapped out short-term responses to supply disruptions stemming from ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, noting that EU refineries currently supply approximately 70% of jet fuel and 85% of diesel consumed across Europe. (read more)

 

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