Mohamed El-Erian, the chief economic adviser for Allianz, got the inflation problem correct; states a forecast in line with CTH Main Street review, but then falls short on his political outlook for the solution.
Within the interview, El-Erian predicts inflation at the current CPI measure will increase from current 7.9% to over 10% this year. That aspect is in alignment with CTH review at ground level.
Current real inflation is more than 15% across the board, if you use the CPI methodology we were using in the 70’s and 80’s. Both the scale and the speed of the current price increases are historic. That is why you are seeing prices on retail items jumping so high, so fast. The price increases on highly consumable goods are in the 15 to 20% range. WATCH:
An increase to over 10%, using current CPI measures, equals an increase of 25 to 30% in actual price (using historic measures). Keep in mind, we have already passed through a wave of backward-looking inflation in the 25 to 30% range. El-Erian is predicting a duplication of that scale into the remainder of 2022, I agree. The 2020 $3 item became the 2021 $4 item, which will now become the 2022 $5.50 item. That is our reality. It will not get better.
Where we differ from El-Erian is on the wage side and the political analysis. Any political intervention to create govt subsidy with the goal to generate a higher workforce will backfire – bigly. Recent historic employment statistics have not yet reflected the demand side decline in goods. The employment data is skewed and useless because of the COVID mitigation impact on jobs.
The employment picture is only just now starting to reflect the demand side drop. Wages will not grow and will not provide fuel for inflation. The currently hidden workforce reductions are generating downward pressure on wages naturally. Adding subsidies (childcare etc), to generate a higher workforce into an environment with declining available jobs, will backfire.
Sector specific unions negotiating for higher wage contracts will find themselves trying to get wage increases while the top line of the organization is dropping due to lack of demand. Unfortunately, the AFSCME is generally immune to this problem – government spending can always expand.
This is where El-Erian’s connection to Wall Street is his blind spot. If what he suggests were carried out, govt will print money to cover even more deficit spending (the BBB agenda). That increased money supply will create even more inflation at the same time real life wage pressures are going down because the economy is contracting, and workers are getting laid-off.
The economy, quantified by the goods/services generated (minus imports), has been contracting since mid 2021. The govt COVID subsidies created artificial and unnatural demand for goods. If you take the massive COVID expenditures ($5+ trillion) out of the 2021 economy, the result is a recession that began mid 2021.
That bloated chicken, which carried the inflation created by the printing, is coming home to roost. There ain’t no way in hell to avoid it. The recession exists, regardless of our desire to ignore it or fill the hole with more QE printing.
The inflation problem is now magnified by the need for the Fed to raise interest rates and stop purchasing our own debt. Raising interest rates will lower investment and naturally create fewer jobs. The economy will contract further and faster. El-Erian accurately notes there is no positive way out of this scenario, there are bad options and worse options. The difference between them is how slow or fast we want to take off the bandaid.
$3 – $4 bread in 2020, became $4 – $5 bread in 2021, which will become $5.50 – $6.50 bread mid-summer 2022. Other food store averages will follow a similar rate of price increase. The processed food inflation is settling down, however, fresh foods inflation will now take over and has only just begun. Fresh fruits and vegetables will increase in price at roughly twice the rate of processed goods.
Chemical product price increases should level off mid-summer; however, with unleaded gasoline still on target for $7/gal [diesel $8/$9 (range)] the packaging, transportation and distribution costs will continue putting upward pressure on finished good prices.
All of these things were going to happen this year, regardless of Russia and Ukraine. The European conflict is now just a convenient excuse to avoid blame for outcomes of the underlying policies.
This economic reality is not exclusively a U.S. issue; however, the scale of the economic problem is exclusively a U.S. issue. The globe may drop into a recession, but our hole will be far worse.
How To Kill A Country (Some fake news but a good expose)
Turning a breadbasket (Rhodesia) into a (Liberal cesspool of Zimbabwe via “democracy”) basket case in ten easy steps—the (Liberal-Communist)Robert Mugabe way
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2003/12/how-to-kill-a-country/302845/
Revelation 6:6 says a quart of wheat for a day’s wages and three quarts of barley for a day’s wages. I guess we are getting there.
ya soon a loaf of bread will $10
The best investment then to protect yourself then is… Russia.
Zimbabwe and Hyperinflation: Who Wants to Be a Trillionaire?
Only Joe Biden would try to take down Putin by crashing the Dollar.
He is crashing the dollar and smoke screening us with the Russia vs. Ukraine war.
I want to weep when I read of Zimbabwe, which could be the Switzerland of Africa. 37 years of Mugabe with his Marxism and now 4 more under Mugabe 2.0. Having lived there for a few years shortly after independence, I could clearly see what was coming. I experienced little hostility from black people but surprising friendliness and kindness. It is hard to understand how the ordinary people can keep tolerating such rulers.
I hadn’t thought about Rhodesia in years.
One of my fraternity brothers went there to fight as a mercenary for several summers when most of us were pumping gas, cleaning tables or working in factories.
He was quite the hunter, so to speak.
Soldier of Fortune magazine ran ads looking for recruits, many came from the US. One came from Georgia who was highly decorated veteran Captain in the Marines and who went on to become a Major and one of the best field ops commanders in the Rhodesian military. The Rhodesian military is considered the finest in the world for the decade of the 70’s.
Hey. There were zero mercenaries in Rhodesia. I am a Rhodesian. We welcomed any foreigner to fight for Rhodesia but they all went through regular army induction and training. About 150 Americans fought against the communist terrorists for Rhodesia and many lost their lives. Your ignorance of this reality lessens their service and that of your fraternity brother – if he was real and did come to fight for us. Again no mercenaries in Rhodesia. Ever.
The author is Samantha Power. I harridan leftist and powerful broker under Obama.
She, like all leftists, supported Mugabe until it became inconvenient to do so. Notice how she casually says “ came to power after a 13 year civil war”.
Liar. It wasn’t a civil war. The USSR targeted Rhodesia and launched it. They hand picked Mugabe from a Jesuit mission school because of his intelligence and sent him to Moscow for training. She says nothing about it of course.
It was all part of the colonization the USSR wanted in Africa after WWII. Another hand picked Soviet tool was Mandela. He was the head of the South African Communist Party which became the ANC. Truth that no one talks about.
Wow, thx for the interesting info!
Ty for the info friend. I am a friend of Rhodesia. I made sure to note in the beginning that there was some fake news in the article. Ian Smith’s bio was aptly named “the Great Betrayal”.
Mandela was nothing more than a puppet for Joe Slovo a communist vermin from Lithuania/Soviet Union which holocausted 40-60 million Christians.
Do you know Jan from HReviewed? His brother was in SAS C squadron. The best to you friend
Thank you. I’m a grateful American now. My father founded C Sqn. Fought as a trooper in the Malaya campaign with them. A humble warrior. Stirling thanked him personally for initiating the formation of the unit.
My sincere salutations to your father, family, and all Rhodesians everywhere and of course the fallen.
This should interest you friend.
London’s Crucifixion of Rhodesia
http://www.renegadetribune.com/londons-crucifixion-rhodesia/
Stolen elections have consequences
Stolen elections have the proper consequences associated with them: a CATACLYSM, what is about to unfold.
Ordinances are no longer necessary.
What’s up for debate is whether ordnance is necessary.
Elections have consequences.
Stolen elections have catastrophic consequences.
Stolen elections without pushback have existential consequences.
How do smug toads like Bill Barr get up in the morning and blithely go on about their swampy day? If he had one ounce of conscience he would state the obvious facts that losing Trump was a very costly mistake, even if he feels it was legit. But all he can focus on is Trump’s unwillingness to roll over.
I hope he expires and exits this world. Enough of garbage like that.
Because it doesn’t affect him or any of his circle personally. He reads the WaPo, the NYT, the WSJ, and watches cable “news”. Nothing jolts him out of his smug comfortable world.
And therein lies the problem.
Barr, the toady, is a product of our Imperial Capitol – they live in a alternate universe far removed from the realities most Americans deal with. That’s how they say and do things with no remorse – it doesn’t enter their mind. The mistake is to assume people like Barr are more than what they really are – partisan Hucksters.
There will be a deluge of fake-fact checkers come out by the Left-wing Communist/Fascist/Totalitarian Media. The only defense remaining is to lie. What is important to the “Bad Guys” now is not about lying, but enough sheep believe the lies.
We all know Libtards who will believe the lie no matter how preposterous.
Yes, and so easy to spot out west here. They wear masks… everywhere.
I thought at the very beginning someday one could tell low-info Libtards as well as Karen’s. They would be the ones wearing masks after a retarded baboon knows masks worthless.
A population “asleep at the switch” and convinced “it can NEVER happen HERE!” ,….has consequences.
Constant vigilance is the cost of freedom. Get up each morning, assuming there are s.o.b.’s out there, plotting to take your liberty.
Its not paranoia, just a recognition of REALITY.
Dire consequences.
Refinement:
“stolen elections have DEVASTATING consequences”
The March number should be a doosie
They will fake it – again.
Is this Brenan woman related to the old man Brenan of the CIA?
both being directed by the pit of hell, so there’s at least that
👍🔥
Better stop worrying about how much crap costs and start worrying about REAL slavery, REAL Famine and REAL destruction . of life. It isnt getting better as long as Democrats and RINOs are in charge. Every bad choice will result in more failure. Its not an accident folks. Its deliberate, and its coming to the planet you live on.
You’re correct, it’s deliberate. Until the perpetrators get real skin in the game, expect it
McConnell has often said that, when push comes to shove, Republican voters will always coalesce and vote for the candidate with an “R” next to his or her name, regardless of how far said candidate might be from that voters “ideal” in terms of policies. Much better than voting for a Dem! That may have been the case back in the day, but I don’t think it will play out in Nov or 2024. What he doesn’t know, or knows but can’t admit, is that the majority of R voters are on to him (thanks to President Trump) and his Uni-Party affiliation. Personally, I won’t vote in 2024 if the POTUS candidate is not MAGA. I don’t think I’m alone.
I’m with ya’. Voting “lesser of two evils” is what has gotten us in to this existential-threat mess that may well lead to the fatal demise of our country.
I consider the positions taken (or not) about the color revolution of 2020 to be an acid test. My Senators (Rubio / Scott) and Congressman (Rutherford) have all been accomplices to the coup, by going along with the GOP conspiracy of silence to pretend it never happened. Which also means being complicit in leaving intact all electoral fraud mechanisms from sea to shining sea.
I will vote in 2022 and 2024, albeit writing-in candidate NONE in their race listings on the ballot.
If he’s not already there, in 2024 I will also be writing-in “Donald J. Trump” in the Presidential race.
I’ll take your Senators and up you with Burr and Tillis.
Our Senate is a major problem that the 17th amendment created.
I’m with you there, fellow NC resident!! They are truly shameless and totally guilty of anything you can think of!!
why do you keep voting them back in?
Rigged elections put Cooper in the governor’s office, twice. They do what they like with impunity.
We knew Burr was a Rino, Tillis snuggled up to Trump, then showed his true colors.
Wa state
We have Murray and Cant(do)well along with Inslee who I call Dimslee.
We are totally screwed here.
And with all mail in voting it’s very hard to get them out.
Vote all the bastards out.
But we vote new bastards in. IMO the whole design is fatally flawed. We need a king.
I think we are moving past the party line voting with Republicans, a lot of people I know have switched to Independent from Republican, which is a sign that the old party line votes might not be there anymore.
I will never again vote RINO, let them lose, it isn’t as if it matter with the way they work anyway.
The lesser of 2 evils is still a vote for evil. Whenever I say this the person I’m talking to does a full stop. So many habitual Republican voters need to have this pointed out. More are getting it, thank God.
Romney and McCain won the Republican primaries. It all starts with us.
The corruption goes all the way to the local levels nowadays. Even the local Jurisdictions are overstepping their bounds and taxing whole cities and counties into poverty at the benefit of the few who work for them.
Yep. Atlas is shrugging. Parallel economy will develop. Somehow.
Black market. Also lots of bartering when currency hyperinflates into uselessness.
So, let me ask you again: Are you finally ready to overturn the 2020 “election steal” felony … now that you finally understand what it has so far cost you?
As things get worse more of the brainwashed may start to question their liberal programming and perhaps enough people start to do something to correct it. I’ve been trying to wake people up since I was a teenager got turned onto to the JBS and read a book by Des Griffin and my blinders were taken off and my They Live Sunglasses put on.
Well….I’m certainly ready to have the stolen diamonds, that have been found, returned to their rightful owner.
Anddddd the Thief arrested, prosecuted and do the time!
I think the “time” for treason is served in Hell.
Would love too, but it’s too late.
It may be unlikely, but it’s not too late. Think of the concept of void ab initio in contract law … nullifying everything that the Biden-Harris Junta has done.
Some things just can’t be undone. The inflation we see right now would stay regardless of a miracle restoration of the true President. The damage Duh One did has not been undone, as seen with the FBI and CIA and DOJ – Unless career characters are tossed out and the whole system rebuilt, there is no putting the toothpaste back in the tube. And even then, starting out at ground zero with those corrupt institutions would bring a whole host of other problems.
Study the depression of 1921. It’s instructive, a bit of history the FED and the Uniparty wishes you not to know.
We can go into a major depression and if allowed to sort out the over indebted from those not, the economy readjusts and gets on with it. No gov intervention, no special programs, no deficit spending, just those who made bad judgments paying the price instead of all of us paying the price.
The only way that will happen is if we have resolve to not make the mistakes of the past. I’ll let you decide if that’s possible without major turmoil and a major depression
Trump 2020 coulda, woulda, shouda been great but that ship has sailed. Start anew. Pick up the pieces and build.
We can’t pick up the pieces until we find all the broken places. Regardless of whether Trump ever gets to serve this time in office, we will never be able to elect anyone unless legal votes count, only legal votes count, and everyone knows that only legal votes count.
Face it, no one will do anything ever. Jan 6th scared all the people who probably would have. I’ve never seen a revolution stopped either, and according to the WEF this is the 6th industrial revolution. They’re too powerful. Humanity will never be free.
How are we going to make it thru another 3 years of this intentional (self) destruction? I would give my cousin grief – life long republican – first time ever (D) biden voter – no more mean tweets! – biden is harmless middle of the road old man! – but she’s in Michigan – and wayne county would have just ginned up another vote anyways. Need to wait and find a better point about the sea of lies in which we all swim now – to get her fully red pilled.
What makes you think you can wait and then do something about it in 3-years? Why would they change what was successful getting them here?
Right. THIS time, it will be free and fair
It will be free and fair if the “Bad Guys” are held accountable and go to Jail. IMO, it is coming sooner than later.
Poverty–With a Purpose.
Quit calling him an idiot.
I mean, he is an idiot, but this isn’t idiocy. It’s evil.
And stop giving him advice. It’s pointless.
The American Economy is being killed on purpose by Biden, by which I mean Obama, by which I mean the cabal of Communists, Islamists and Globalists that own both of them.
But Why Murder our Money?
1.) China ordered him to. As China’s installed Colonial Governor, he is simply obeying his employer.
2.) It enables the Great Reset. You must tear down the old to rebuild or “Reset”.
3.) To enable the piracy of billions for predatory market manipulators like Soros and
BlackRock.
And perhaps most of all,
4.) It targets the greatest accomplishment of America: The Great American Middle Class.
The Middle Class is a bulwark against tyranny. It brooks no wild-eyed schemers. It builds families. It builds businesses. It builds churches. It builds communities of free men and women who think for themselves. It has power independent of government, with its’ own competing agenda.
Budding totalitarians therefore hate it.
And the Great American Middle Class reelected Actual President Trump in a massive landslide.
That alone is reason enough for the attempt to crush it.
The Power That Be want us neutered, controlled, subservient or dead, and they don’t seem to be too picky about which. The only limiting principle seems to be what they think they can get away with without sparking The Uprising.
They have completely abandoned the Constitutional basis by which we settle our differences honestly and peacefully, leaving only a Dictatorship in Drag, marked by COVID in their contrails, War in their wake and Poverty in their path.
We’ve got a job to do. It pays in the currency of Freedom.
“We Did That–and On Purpo$e!”
Rest in the Vine: Obiden, Inc.’s War on the Middle Class: The Pre-Meditated Ass-assination of the American Economy
Pestilence, war, famine, death are the four horsemen…in that order.
Yesterday, I visited Walmart. There are empty shelves no more.
The shelves are full and the merchandise is deep to the back of the shelf- no more pulling one box or can forward to make it look fully stocked.
I think what is happening is that people have cut way back on their buying due to gas prices. If you are paying more than double to fill your tank, you are going to try to make up that money elsewhere. $100 to fill your tank? Well, let’s see what we can cut out to make up the difference. Nonessentials are not being bought. I did it myself and I know others did because their carts at the checker line were nearly empty. I even shorted my tip at lunch.
This is how we enter a depression for all you Democrats out there.
Gas and food prices.
Then the rising energy costs to heat and cool homes and businesses.
Combine all the increases and people are buying only what is necessary.
Then companies are seeing loss of business. And they are also paying increased costs. Will have to lay off employees.
Chain of events..
Domino effect
Of course, you do KNOW the Democrats don’t care a bit about the little people–not a bit. However, they care VERY much about the NGOs and Hollywood and Wall Street billionaires who fund their fascist despotism.
Well it fixed the supply problem as many can’t afford even the basic’s.
My family can survive this and really my four employees but what happens when my business is affected to the point of laying people off.
I have been self employed small business of three to four employee’s for over thirty years and haven’t ever had to but.
Sure I’m not the only one.
Had to go to three stores to find chicken and pasta.
Bird flu is rampant now in the US. Deliberately introduced? Who knows…but I wouldn’t take bets that it hasn’t been.
In the article “You will own nothing and be happy” they make it clear that you rent literally everything, even your clothes and bed/bedroom. They said shopping would no longer exist.
Pair this with Zuckerberg’s Meta. Walmart and others are getting in on recreating their stores in Metaverse. They don’t want you mobile or financially independent of them.
Slavery.
I have heard similar reports in my food shortage group. Shelves stocked to the brim, for the first time in a long while. The calm before the storm?
“shorted my tip at lunch”…..what loathsome behavior. If you can afford to eat out, you can afford to tip.
Or just stay home.
The man is correct and our federal government budgetarily conducting itself the way it just did will not help matters.
We are nearing the end of the road folks.
BRICS nations control the overwhelming majority of commodities, I don’t see how Western nations like ours believe they are going to win out.
Zimbabwe is our future unless we stop these mass murdering sadists & psychopaths running the liberal lunatic asylum
US government I-Bonds are inflation matching and currently paying 7.2%. They are recalculated twice a year.
The maximum purchase is $10,000 per calendar year per person.
If you sell during the first 12 months you lose all interest.
If you sell after one year, but less than 5 years you lose one-quarters of interest.
If you sell after five years you lose no interest.
These are only sold to individuals online and cannot be sold by Stockbrokers.
Great Value one gallon cooking oil went from $7.44 to $11.98 in six months, a 50+% increase. Glade plug-ins at Sams Club $10.88 to $16.48 50% increase. We all know what gas/diesel has done and everything else. Anyone who believes inflation is anything less than 20% isn’t paying attention, and they’re just getting started. ThankGod we have a years food payed in and the garden is going in very shortly.
looks like the plug-ins budget is gonna go for cooking oil
Fortunately my home doesn’t need glade plugins ✨
Gas, $5 a gallon in Austin tx
Does Mr Biden or his handlers know something we don’t. Current speculation as it that a great many people are yet to die as a result of the non-vaccine. So if true, then the total workforce may be reduced. How would this impact the predictions made by Sundance below?
“The employment picture is only just now starting to reflect the demand side drop. Wages will not grow and will not provide fuel for inflation. The currently hidden workforce reductions are generating downward pressure on wages naturally. Adding subsidies (childcare etc.), to generate a higher workforce into an environment with declining available jobs, will backfire.”
Naturally, you would need fewer jobs to support a smaller population and less food and products in general to support the population already being reduced from health issues. Should such an event occur, then surely this would be yet another confirmation of a planned genocide.
This is an important point. I just read an article with charts showing that by mid April those who are triple injected ages 18-39 will lose full immunity by mid April, those 40-49 will lose full immunity by mid May.
If they live that long and no, I am not joking
Are you saying the triple vaxed had full immunity from covid at some point and that it is wearing off?
But we are importing millions of illegals
As we all know the Fed started the ball rolling on this by printing, printing, printing…
This…
Interviewer: “If you get rid of the Federal Reserve, what do you replace it with?”
Dr Thomas Sowell: “When someone removes a cancer, what do you replace it with?”
“It is no coincidence that the century of total war coincided with the century of central banking.”
Dr Ron Paul
“The Federal Reserve System is nothing more than legalized counterfeit.”
Dr Ron Paul
He was right, C. And you are right to remind us all here. A dictionary definition of “criminal cartel”.
Should we be surprised that this was much the intent in the first place of creating this now global, financial system based on central banks?
Yup!! Dr. Ron Paul was the one who woke me up to the criminal Federal Reserve.
As Catherine Austin Fitts has said, we have been living under the central banker warfare model.
In addition to Dr. Ron Paul, I also learned a lot from Bill Still’s documentary The Money Masters and Ellen Brown’s Web of Debt (book), and Eustace Mullins.
Read Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich Hayek and Murry Rothbard
A Constitutional Reset. Abolish the Fed. De monopolize the media. End Lobbying. Demolish the intell/state dept agencies. etc
That’s a tall order. As much as I would wish to see it, I see little hope for it. All of our government is totally corrupted, too many secrets known amongst them all to effect any of it, and too many whose only source of obscene wealth depends on the status quo.
I know its a tall order, but perhaps this “Reset” of theirs is actually an opportunity to flip it on them?
I’ve never known a time before this, that so many people are questioning the media narratives of currrent propaganda and past. I’m ever the optimist. Cheers!
Stay that way, my friend. I have my little ember of hope still refusing to extinguish itself. There is a larger Hand at the controls.🙏
Flip the Reset! I like that! We all know what 6uild 6ack 6etter is all about!
Bill of Political Conduct; first, Election Standards that mandate IDs, in-person, same-day polling, manual counts, NO computerized devices; second. Without these; the problem with Communists will return.
It wall all collapse, it won’t selectively do so. Normalcy bias demands nothing that’s structural be allowed to change. The west is on life support.
Do not replace the cancer with anything. Allow healing.
Which was exactly the wonderful Dr Sowell’s point. He has a way of using very few words to make an impact. Originally a firm leftist who thankfully realized how wrong he was. We cannot afford to lose his voice.
He’s also a never trumper, unfortunately.
https://www.nationalreview.com/2016/01/donald-trump-conservatives-oppose-nomination/
I’m pretty sure he has changed his mind on that, but I could be wrong.
You replace it with government printed currency backed by commodities. A heartfelt goodbye to debt backed currency
You can literally see the demand declining. People are not shopping for stuff like they were in 2020 and first half of 2021. People aren’t looking for new coffee-makers or shopping clothing sales or matching paint chips. I’m afraid that this is going to put more stores out of business.
Congress is getting ready to pass another $1.5 trillion spending bill containing a lot of pork. I have a feeling that is going to help push even higher prices as more money will be printed to fund it. It’s almost like Congress is trying to scuttle the economy by all this massive spending of money we don’t have that we are going in debt to give to Ukraine to blow up.
Has legitimate audits ever been done on all these grift spending bills? 30 trillion in debt to a shadowy group of counterfeiters shows that supposed “western democracies” are really criminal conspiracies against their citizens who are slaves/the Dead as David Bowie called us
The theater of the Financiers he called this sh–show, which Ukraine is the latest/newest act
I see restaurants going out of business. Everyone I talk with have cut-back and going out to restaurants less than what they used too.
I dunno, some people are stupid. I was in Macys today and women buying and lines at the checkout like nothing is going on…then I went to a restaurant for a bite of lunch, when we got there it was empty, by the time we left it was packed. Eat, drink and be merry for tomorrow we die seems to be the motto of some. My friend told me she is getting her bedroom painted, paying $800 to a painter to paint the bedroom. Its not a huge bedroom. Its white at the moment, I asked her what color she’s having it painted, she ” oh white, but a softer white, like what’s in my living room”….$800 just for a ” softer shade” of white. SMH.. idiots.
You can just about bet these people are Libtards. Although, I am starting to learn some MAGA people can be about as dumb and stupid as Libtards.
“A Whiter Shade of Pale”?
There are a lot of people who can afford to spend… most younger people I know are either earning good pay or are living with their parents to save money.
I wouldn’t count other people’s money.
Kongress IS trying to scuttle the economy!
“Make do and mend” is the motto in our house.
Thankfully…very thankfully…my husband grew up in post war Britain and had nothing, thus did he learn from his very able father how to do that mending and repairing (sometimes with a lot of improvising). but in his day, all sorts of useful skills were taught in British schools.
We cut our cloth to our circumstances, which the generations following us are going to have to learn to do in short order. I don’t think they’re going to like it.
Keep calm and carry on.
There are times when that’s the best course…and leave it to Him whose battle this really is. It has never been more stark to me.
And they gave themselves a damn raise!
We’ll find out what else was in it after it passes.
The old frog in the pot of water story most people will not realize they are cooked until it’s to late.
Anybody remember Carole King?
My investment goal has always been to try to meet or beat inflation each year. And that has worked well for the last 5 years as I handily beat inflation. But for the year 2022 I rated both the stock and bond markets to be very tough going. So not likely to find any smooth low volatility income generating funds.
So I had to step back and say I need an inflation hedge investment that will be solid and pretty much keep up with inflation.
So right now I am 100% invested in inflation bonds. Fully loaded in I-Bonds 10K each year (Nov 2021 7.12% and March 2022 7.12%) and 5K Fed refund (2021 7.12%). And in my IRA and investment accounts in TD Ameritrade I am 100% in TIP bond funds. I am in short term TIP funds for less volatility for now. TIP = Treasury inflation bonds that increase in value based on the inflation rate.
For now those seem like pretty good investments and maybe the only pretty safe investments for this year. My downside risk in minimal compared to other investments and the opportunity to make almost the inflation rate is promising.
Since the best I can do is almost make inflation (not beat inflation), That means I will not have extra to spend So as of now my spending is cut significantly for the rest of this year and maybe 2023?
But overall I think for 2022 I will be ahead of most investors as I hope to make 6-7% overall and with little volatility and risk. If TIP funds run stable and I want to try to make more I will move into the longer term TIP funds that make another 2% over the short term TIP funds but with more volatility
What? No allocation to precious metals?
I rate all commodity trading as volatile and risky. Yes they can be good and I may yet place a small amount in metals and commodities but only a small “hot spice” amount. GLD, SLV, GDX (gold miners), USO (oil), DBA (ag) DBC (general).
I am retired and 100% living off my Social Security and modest investments with no other income. So I am trading with money I cannot afford to lose. So draw-downs scare me.
Understood. Sounds like you’ve thought it through. Some question if GLD / SLV actually have what they have (I’m not expert enough to opine either way). You may want to check out the Sprott precious metals fund (when last I looked it had miners and about 10% physical), or their physical metal trusts (they specifically say they’re holdings are fully allocated and unencumbered, which may still not be a total guarantee — any rehypothecation going on? — but better than nothing).
I traded the futures market and lost my ass. I got into an ETF and lost my ass after. they closed trading. Lesson don’t trade futures or ETFs.
I still day trade stocks, DE,PXD,GS.
The goal is to remove middle class disposable income.
The evil isn’t globalist but our federal government. IT destroyed small businesses, murdered elderly with Covid, programmed murder with the jab mandates, violated your worship, fired Keystone workers, resulting 50k support workers losing their jobs. Pipe manufactures, steel, concrete, mobile housing, meal trucks, hotel, restaurants, list is endless. Government works have the sack to look welders in the eye and say solar is your future while they give themselves, who make nothing) a 20% pay raise. Then blame energy sector for not investing in 9000 leases when with a stroke of a pen, their investment is lost.
ALL with a stroke of a pen. And now these bastards are angling for war to cover their decisions.
There is NO accountability, no responsibility, no integrity, no empathy for citizens because the plan is to back fill every worker with an illegal.
Our republic is dead. The one thing we had was the vote, but no more. State legislators conspired to null our voice and federal will reward them with cheap labor and bailouts.
I’m on the backside with maybe 20 years left and done with thinking this country allows one, should they choose, can accomplish almost anything.
We cannot vote our way out of this, we cannot negotiate with those who harm us. We must remove them by all means necessary or what was America is lost forever.
More people need to realize it to be the case. People need to go from “What is happening” to “Stop it happening”.
Donald Trump is smarter than The Deep State.
Or do the Elites enjoy making money off of the change, bankruptcies, management fees, buying opportunities, foreclosures, etc.?
I don’t know about “enjoying” it as much as it is “entitled” to it.
Lee Smith is saying the Elites are at war with America.
I can’t argue against it, and Smith is a sober professional.
The elites are not of us. They are not us. They have been at war with us for thousands of years. They hate Christ and his people especially so. There is not one Christian nation left in the world. The last one was Rhodesia. I leave out SA because “elements” in their government sold out Rhodesia to buy time for themselves.
America is the last chance and the world’s beleaguered Christian’s best hope. I was always grateful that PDJT at least publicly acknowledged the plight of our brothers & sisters in SA. The only one to do so.
“When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another”
Zydeco we are there you and me make two we need a lot more help .God Bless stay strong R.D.
Also, please remember that the way inflation is calculated now is very different than the way it was calculated during Carter’s days. If inflation today included the items from the Carter Era, it would be almost double the rate current rate at about 15.5%. That puts some perspective on how screwed up this administration is for those of us living through both.
Jerome Powell without a doubt is the worst Chairman of The Federal Reserve ever. The idiot should have been raising interest rates by 50 basis points 8 times last year and should have been quantitative easing by at least 5 trillion dollars.
Yes, it would have caused the stock market bubble to pop, because all stocks are and were way overvalued. But it would have stopped inflation in its tracks and the middle class would not now be paying for double to triple digit inflation. And facing a bad recession or worse.
Hah, predicted inflation when they talked about the first stimulus .
Ron Paul fan here . Been following him for years .
Who couldn’t see the future if you listened to Ron 🙄
I have read that if diesel gets into the $6 or $7 dollar range for a gallon, a lot of independent truckers can’t make a living and will parkmtheir trucks. And many smaller farmers won’t be able to plant. Fun times ahead.
There is not one, singular, master conspiracy that is coordinating all of this. Impossible to control so many, regardless their levels of corruption.
However, there are several large schemes driving decision making that are ultimately destroying our nation.
The globalist cabal WEF, and their BBB BS, is largely the driving force behind most political animals. It encompasses so many idealized goals by the elites and their ilk, as to make it both attractive and compulsive at the same time. If that’s not enough, they represent massive wealth used to buy political control.
The green climate scam movement is sort of tied in but stands in it’s own orbit, with it’s own agenda, commingling with BBB but pushing for priority. Gobs of money and BS activity to keep pumping the money and their political hacks.
Lastly, the political hacks themselves are their own massive cabal. Yes, they are bought and paid for by both movements, but they also use their power to achieve additional goals. The same tribal Uniparty that rigged the election to stop attacks on their massive corruption and theft of our money, is also being pushed to go Defcon 5 on the WEF and Climate Kooks goals.
They are obliging.
The economic disaster coming is designed to facilitate this. It takes a CRISIS to boldly and radically transform. They will create desperation, poverty and debasement of everything Americans own. The “new digital dollar” will be the saving grace for all…the means to obtain government handouts, the only way to purchase essentials for living. Slaves to the elites.
THIS IS ALL BY DESIGN. THIS IS WHY THEY ARE PREPARING FORCES TO MAKE US HEEL AND CONTROL RESISTANCE.
Prepare….
Digital control of $ will end our freedom. Australia has closed down ATM’s for cash. Buy gold/ silver, anything of bartering value, guns and ammo. Find local food sources, plant a garden, get a generator, keep as much cash on hand as possible, if banking, bank locally. Form neighbor/community gatherings to determine individual abilities to help each other out and exchange ideas. Pray. There is so much we can do!
The problem is the Uniparty trying to fix the inflation problem with more spending which is what is fueling this INFLATION. The McConnells and McCarthys don’t have a clue.
They know exactly what they’re doing & exactly what has been done for 10+ decades.
We can’t comply our way out of tyranny & they’re coconspirators in that tyranny.
Pelosi just about stuttered the same thing yesterday.
Mohamed El-Erian’s analysis of Biden’s policies was a sugar coated deflection of their wilful destruction of our economy to impose their will on markets that have rejected them.
Make child care a Federally financed program, because it has worked out so well for k-12, “higher” education, healthcare and home ownership.
And yes, the promise it will lower prices, just as they promised with healthcare, even though it obviously didn’t.
They want to groom kids at even a younger age, ..
Beyond that, SS recipients got a 5.9 percent cola, at the beginning of 2022, based on price increases in 2021.
Gonna have to be close to if not 10 percent, starting in Jan 2023, which will not be an insignificant big hole in an already big hole, underfunded program.
In Mindless Monetary Theory tho, thats o.k. cause the Govt can print as much $ as it wants, without any downside.
What a mess!
On day 1, when the keystone pipeline was canceled, I remember dementia Joe saying that all those pipeline workers would quickly find jobs in the solar industry. Some reporter should follow up and see what those former pipeline workers are doing? And then ask pp if she knows. More lies would be the answer. Pray and pray more.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/03/must-watch-laid-off-keystone-pipeline-workers-shred-biden-lies-american-oil-production-sick-hearing-putins-price-hike/
It would be so nice if Americans could figure out a way to flip the coin.
Ty sunnydaze.
YW.
They will attempt to “fact check” their way out of this not so slow anymore SS.
Two years later how the pandemic has rocked the housing market. I can attest, there is NOTHING out there, or it incredibly expensive, or it gets scooped up in hours, it is insane.
https://realtytimes.com/real-industry-news-articles/item/1044451-two-years-later-how-the-pandemic-has-rocked-the-u-s-housing-market?fbclid=IwAR0RKfPSuuRY1YJUYQzBJ7AadUADyj2NLe2kkyoBZpbLFlOAMF8E3oAVDKc
Where is the discussion on who exactly El Elian is…and why he was denied citizenship 7 times by the DHS…even though he was married to a close acolyte of the Clinton Machine.
El Eiran closebuddy of Obama…
You forgot to add in the effects of the millions of illegal aliens streaming into this country
The stolen election is why.
You will conclude after all the bullshit is set aside. Fraudulent election is the sole reason for all the existing misery.
No. Decades of corruption since the end of WW 2 and the buildup of the security state/MIC since then is the culprit. You, me and the vast majority of the US has been in denial or uninformed until Trump pulled back the curtain.
Inflation will need to not just slow, but prices will need to drop. 2020 election analysis shows upper middle class suburban white women went for Biden in huge numbers and made the difference for Biden – and pushed America into a dementia driven Hellscape.
Does anyone feel like we are at 10% already?
When talking about high gasoline costs and that I was trying to drive less as a result, I had an affluent Biden voting ‘Karen’ respond ‘You weren’t going to go anywhere anyway!’ How do you reason with such an idiot?
You get a raise of 5% and bumped up to a higher tax bracket. Then get hit with inflation of 15% which is pain.
So you change jobs and a headhunter negotiates a 10% higher salary. Still a step backwards.
If anyone is paying attention to the price of meat based protein foods, you’ll already know prices have increased well into double digits. Costco’s 6-pack canned chicken has been $9.99 for years. Between the end of Jan to the beginning of Mar, it rose to $13.99, that’s 40%. Other regular meat, tuna, dog food, etc are well beyond the mythical 7% the gov’t touts.
Incredibly, the debt load both private and governmental is astronomical. Printing money has been the past solution. Sovereign debt is a huge nut to crack. Pension funds are underwater. The EU, and the semi socialist environment, pays for virtually everything the citizen needs. The western world lives on credit and money printing.
Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) basically states that a country that controls it’s own currency can print money to support the economy with no damage to itself. This applies to many western countries. This theory is about to get tested big time.
Anyone, any citizen, who thinks that this isn’t going to get worse before it gets better, better think again. Sadly, the pain only increases as we are backed into an inflation corner and rates have to be raised to stop the inflation. The Fed really has not other tools at it’s disposal and no choice. Stand by.
How things have changed in a little over one year….. Jimmy Carter must be very proud indeed.
Sundance, on the wage side: the lefties have convinced corporate boards to adopt ESG – with an emphasis on employee diversity and wage growth. The chief villain of $10T Blackrock even admitted that this will lead to multi-year inflation but that it’s a good thing.
Wage-price inflation spirals are coming. And the ONLY cure for such is very high interest rates to drive the economy into a deep recession (ala Volker) but the current Fed and political situation will not allow it.
If there’s a Rep. Congress, the Fed will then raises rates to that level (in 2023 and 2024) and then the Dems will blame the ensuing recession on the Reps, just like they blamed Reagan for the deep recession in 81-82.
Unfortunately, we have not taught history well and we are doomed to repeat it.
You are kind. It will be worse because there is no corrective action taking place now or the foreseeable future. Even the best actions take 6 to 8 months to create meaningful change. It’s the plan, not a mistake.
We are just beginning to feel inflation. The Putin effect will take time to filter into an economy that was already six months away from the peak due to Covid and Biden. The Producer Price Index will go through the roof in the next three or four months. This will then reverberate through the supply chain for another six to twelve months as crops are harvested and livestock are fed this summer and fall as a couple examples. We’re not even factoring in cost of wages, energy, raw materials and borrowing. The sprinkles on Biden’s ice cream cone will be increases in taxes to pay for all of this as the cost of government will go up as they are major consumers as well.
Scary times ahead.