This shouldn’t come as a surprise.  Most banks and financial institutions are being very careful right now as they prepare for the consequences of consumers running out of money.  All banks are securing reserve accounts in anticipation of defaults increasing.

July 15 (Reuters) – Wells Fargo & Co said on Friday its second-quarter profit nearly halved as the bank set aside more funds to cover potential loan losses, while its mortgage lending business came under pressure from higher interest rates.

The fourth-largest U.S. bank reported profit of $3.1 billion, or 74 cents per share, compared with $6 billion, or $1.38 per share, a year earlier. Its total loan loss provisions were $580 million in the quarter, including a $235 million increase due to loan growth.

Under an accounting standard that took effect in 2020, banks must factor the economic outlook into loan loss reserves. Last year, the bank had released $1.6 billion from its reserves for loan losses as the economy rebounded from the pandemic.

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Joe Manchin didn’t completely torpedo the $500 billion in Green New Deal climate change spending, but he did stall it for a month saying he would not support the climate change spending until he sees July’s inflation numbers in August, which should be a warning.

If you think carefully about it, it’s a classic Manchin head-fake.  The July and August inflation numbers, to be released in August and September respectively, are almost guaranteed to be lower than June.

July/Aug are the two months we are in right now where inflation is hitting a plateau.  Gasoline prices are dropping due to a drop in demand. This is the period before prices start rising again in September and October when the energy farming costs start to roll out with the next harvest.

Senator Manchin isn’t stupid; in fact, he is quite Machiavellian, he knows this… thus, his position.

Manchin can give the illusion of prudence, but he knows the July inflation rate will show a decrease for two reasons.

First, in the month-to-month comparison, July will not carry the same scale of gasoline and energy increases as June.  Second, in the year-over-year comparison, July ’22 will be comparing to July 2021 when prices already started skyrocketing.  Bottom line, July inflation will give the illusion of dropping, which gives Manchin a shield to support the spending…. and he will.

WASHINGTON DC – Joe Manchin is forcing Democrats into a brutal choice: Take a deal now to lower the costs of health care premiums and prescription drugs, or try to negotiate a larger bill in September that includes climate and tax reform with no guarantee it will pass.

The West Virginia Democrat said Friday that he wants to see another month of inflation numbers before considering legislation that might increase taxes on some higher-income Americans and plow hundreds of billions of dollars into the energy sector. On Thursday Manchin “unequivocally” rejected July or August approval of Democrats’ proposed energy investments and tax increases in a meeting with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, according to a person briefed on the meeting.

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In an effort to keep the Daily Open Thread a little more open topic we are going to start a new daily thread for “Presidential Politics”. Please use this thread to post anything relating to the JoeBama Administration and Presidency.

“This is no small thing, to restore a republic after it has fallen into corruption. I have studied history for years and I cannot recall it ever happening. It may be that our task is impossible. Yet, if we do not try then how will we know it can’t be done? And if we do not try, it most certainly won’t be done. The Founders’ Republic, and the larger war for western civilization, will be lost.”

“But I tell you this: We will not go gently into that bloody collectivist good night. Indeed, we will make with our defiance such a sound as ALL history from that day forward will be forced to note, even if they despise us in the writing of it.”

~ Mike Vanderboegh

This thread will refresh daily and appear above the Open Discussion Thread.

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Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy Name. Thy kingdom come. THY WILL BE DONE, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread. And forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but DELIVER US FROM EVIL.

For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen †

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The Humane Society of Virginia is trying to find homes for 4.000 beagles, exactly two weeks after NIAID Director Anthony Fauci told congress he would no longer use beagles for allergy testing.

These two stories seem connected.

July 5, 2022 – Under fire from foes of federal animal testing, the agency headed by COVID-19 czar Anthony Fauci has canceled a plan to start new tests of allergy medicine on beagles, some as young as 6 months.

In a letter to Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) and promoted by the White Coat Waste Project, Fauci said that instead of dogs, the new hay fever drug will be tested on rodents.

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British Prime Minister Boris Johnson resigned.  Days later, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was assassinated. A few days passed and both the President and Prime Minister of Sri Lanka, resigned and fled the country.  Today, with their ruling governments in a state of turmoil, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi have both tendered their resignations.

The collapse of each of these national leaders is not necessarily connected; however, the global political system is reverberating with tremors directly connected to the post-pandemic economic turmoil.  It would be naïve not to see these governing issues as consequences.  The legitimacy of the governing class is slipping; perhaps it would be fair to say, some have ‘lost’ their legitimacy altogether.

Estonia is part of the EU and a member of NATO:

HELSINKI — Estonia’s president on Thursday asked Prime Minister Kaja Kallas to form a new government after she tendered the resignation of her one-party minority Cabinet, ending a more than month-long political stalemate in the Baltic nation.

President Alar Karis said in a tweet after meeting with Kallas that “I signed the resignation request of Prime Minister @kajakallas but also asked her to form a new government which could start working quickly and deal with all important issues of Estonian life.”

Estonia’s government crisis culminated in early June as Kallas, leader of the ruling center-right Reform Party, kicked out the left-leaning Center Party from the two-party coalition. The parties had substantial differences over spending and welfare policies amid increasing Estonian household costs because of high inflation. (more)

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CNBC is the Biden defense team for media broadcasts of anything related to the economy.  As a result, you know things are bad when CNBC broadcasts that Joe Biden’s economy has the highest level of dissatisfaction in the history of their surveys.

Steve Liesman was given the task again to share the horrible results. WATCH:

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Sad news. President Donald Trump’s former wife, Ivana Trump, mother to Donald Trump Jr, Eric Trump and Ivanka Trump, has died. She was 73-years-old.

President Trump made the announcement on Truth Social:

[LINK]

Ivana Trump was born Ivana Zelnickova in 1949 in the Czechoslovak city of Gottwaldov.  She married Donald Trump in 1977 and they were divorced in 1992.  They remained good friends and according to Ivana, they spoke to each other every week.

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The “Producer Price Index” (PPI) is essentially the tracking of wholesale prices at three stages: Origination (commodity), Intermediate (processing), and then Final (to wholesale). Today, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released June price data [Available Here] showing another 11.3% increase year-over-year in Final Demand products at the wholesale level.

Overall, the wholesale inflation rate is being driven by energy prices.  The June calculation shows exactly that problem with energy prices embedded in goods driving 10% of the price increase.  However, there is some good news in the short-term for July and August, as the intermediate and raw material costs are leveling off temporarily.  Unfortunately, that raw material price plateau is almost certainly the result of a drop in demand.

CTH has modified Table-A and Table-B to take out the noise.

The June inflation rate for final demand goods (2.4%) is driven mostly by higher energy prices (10%).  Energy costs are passed along through every stage of the supply chain contributing to an overall wholesale price increase of 2.4% in June, 11.3% year-over-year.

Notice the slight drop in final demand services; that is important.  What we are seeing is a contraction in the service economy overall, as the service sector -which includes restaurants- cannot pass along the scale of energy price increase to customers. People are changing their spending habits – service demand overall is dropping.

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In an effort to keep the Daily Open Thread a little more open topic we are going to start a new daily thread for “Presidential Politics”. Please use this thread to post anything relating to the JoeBama Administration and Presidency.

“This is no small thing, to restore a republic after it has fallen into corruption. I have studied history for years and I cannot recall it ever happening. It may be that our task is impossible. Yet, if we do not try then how will we know it can’t be done? And if we do not try, it most certainly won’t be done. The Founders’ Republic, and the larger war for western civilization, will be lost.”

“But I tell you this: We will not go gently into that bloody collectivist good night. Indeed, we will make with our defiance such a sound as ALL history from that day forward will be forced to note, even if they despise us in the writing of it.”

~ Mike Vanderboegh

This thread will refresh daily and appear above the Open Discussion Thread.

(more…)