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Stunning Canadian Trade Reversal Now Seems Increasingly Likely – Nervous Freeland/Trudeau Trying to Position for Political Face Saving…

During analysis of the U.S-Mexico trade agreement terms it became obvious that *if* Canada was going to join the pact they would have to almost completely acquiesce and reverse on their former positions.   It now is entirely plausible that just might happen.
When entering the meeting with U.S.T.R. Robert Lighthizer, Canadian Minister Chrystia Freeland spoke specifically about “Canadian workers”.  Justin from Canada has been very cautious in his word choices also speaking about “Canadian workers”.  As Freeland exited the first meeting with Lighthizer the reasoning for their collective word choice is becoming apparent.  Canada is preparing to take a knee, and they are positioning for the least amount of political damage possible.  WATCH the exit of first meeting:


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Team Trump has positioned this perfectly. By using NAFTA section 2202, to construct a modification of the original 1993 agreement, Lighthizer is intending to send a 90-day notification letter to congress informing them the U.S. and Mexico have agreed to modifications of their bilateral trade agreement.
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GDP Second Quarter Estimate Revised Upward to 4.2%: Expanded Investment, Decreased Imports…

Today the Bureau of Economic Analysis presented the second estimate for the second quarter GDP growth.  The second review increased the growth upward to 4.2%.

Within the data (full pdf release w/ tables) there are several interesting aspects.

(1) The upward revision to nonresidential fixed investment was mostly accounted for by investment in software. (2) Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down. Within goods, the downward revision was widespread, the largest contributor was petroleum.
In addition to presenting revised estimates for the second quarter, today’s release presents revised estimates of first-quarter wages and salaries, personal taxes, and contributions for government social insurance. Wages and salaries are now estimated to have increased $122.5 billion in the first quarter of 2018, an upward revision of $0.4 billion.  (source data)

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A Pragmatic Canadian Perspective on U.S-Mexico Trade Agreement…

A few months ago we highlighted a discussion between Ezra Levant and Manny Montenegrino when they first began to notice the direction of Trump strategy and the duplicitous political agenda of Justin from Canada.  After the announcement of the U.S./Mexico trade agreement yesterday, Levant and Montenegrino revisit the discussion.
While both Canadians seem to overlook the importance of President-elect Lopez-Obrador, Jesus Seade, and the mutually beneficial alignment with U.S.T.R. Lighthizer, their perspective on the motives of Justin from Canada and President Trump circle close to the target.


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Meanwhile Chrystia from Canada has now arrived in Washington DC:
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President Trump Welcomes FIFA President to The White House….

Today President Trump welcomed FIFA President Gianni Infantino and U.S. Soccer President Carlos Cordeiro to the White House for a meeting and discussion of the 2026 World Cup.


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[Transcript] Oval Office – THE PRESIDENT: Well, thank you very much. We very much appreciate the fact that we have won a very important event: the World Cup in 2026. And we’ll be hosting it along with Mexico and Canada. And it’s a very special event. I think it’s probably certainly one of the biggest, and maybe the biggest sporting event in the world.
And soccer has come such a long way. Soccer is a game — I guess you call it “football.” But, over here, maybe at some point, they’ll change the name. I’m not sure, but we’ll see.
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Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Discusses Trade, Tariffs, NAFTA, China, EU and the U.S. Economy…

As Foreign Minister Chrystia from Canada arrives in Washington DC to meet with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is interviewed by CNBC.
Triple Play: Finalize NAFTA (or two bilats); fill in the details on previously agreed EU deal; then face-down red dragon (China).


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Additionally, Mnuchin had some impromptu remarks (below):
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NEC Director Larry Kudlow Impromptu Conversation With Media…

National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow holds an impromptu press gaggle at the White House to field questions about trade and related MAGAnomic matters.


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Additionally Kudlow had some scheduled media appearances (below).
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Secretary Ross Discusses U.S-Mexico Trade Deal and Canada's Options…

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appears on Fox News to discuss the U.S-Mexico trade agreement and the unlikely possibility of Canada to join the agreement.  In order for Canada to join the agreement they would need to remove protectionist tariffs (dairy); remove subsidies to several sectors (lumber, aeronautics); and in large measure open their economy to free, fair and reciprocal trade.
Additionally, The Wall Street corporations who have exploited NAFTA for strategic financial advantage are unhappy with the removal of the NAFTA loopholes.


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Justin from Canada Painted His Country Into a Lose/Lose Trade Corner – More Details of U.S-Mexico Deal…

By choosing politics over fundamental trade economics Justin and Chrystia from Canada have painted themselves into an isolated position on the renegotiated North American Trade deal.  Here’s the basic Canadian conundrum.

The U.S. and Mexico have agreed to manufacturing origination terms; wage and labor improvements; elimination of AG subsidies and non tariff barriers; and removal of all protectionist tariffs – so long as the structural terms of commerce are upheld.
In order for Canada to join the U.S. Mexico deal they would need to:

  • (1) eliminate soft-wood subsidies in the lumber sector;
  • (2) eliminate protectionist tariffs in the AG (Dairy) sector;
  • (3) accept the 75% rules of origin, eliminating the NAFTA loophole;
  • (4) agree to the enforcement mechanisms for all the above;
  • (5) allow U.S. banks to operate in Canada (financial sector).

Each of these five issues, now locked-in and agreed by the U.S. and Mexico are “take-it-or-leave-it” terms for Canada to join. There’s almost no-way, given the politicization of the Canadian plan, for Justin and Chrystia to agree to those terms and keep their fragmented political support base appeased.
Therefore, absent total acquiescence, it is likely Canada will keep their soft-wood lumber subsidies, keep their protectionist Dairy tariffs, keep their banking rules blocking U.S. access, and face a 25% duty on U.S. auto imports – effectively destroying their auto manufacturing sector.  Car companies (ex. Toyota) will simply leave Canada and return to building/assembling in the U.S.
Here’s the content from a conference call filling in more details:
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U.S.T.R. Robert Lighthizer Explains U.S./Mexico Trade Agreement and China Trade Reset…

The corporate-owned, Wall Street-controlled, U.S. media are twisting, contorting, and in many cases hiding the consequential details of the U.S-Mexico trade agreement.
The reason for MSM disinformation campaign is quite simple: the deal helps the U.S. middle-class; helps both U.S. and Mexican workers; begins deconstructing the tentacles of Wall Street economic policy; and highlights a major success story for President Trump and the country in general.  The UniParty, Wall Street and the agenda of their purchased political class are being dismantled…. All of those interests are furious.
While it is still available, watch the 10 minutes of this report (and interview with U.S.T.R. Lighthizer) from 07:00 to 17:00 to get a generally good idea of how significant a day this is.  (prompted, just hit play)
https://youtu.be/Uen12x0jmXA?t=7m
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President Trump and First Lady Melania Welcome President Kenyatta of Kenya, and First Lady Kenyatta to White House…

Earlier today President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump welcomed Kenyan President Kenyatta and his wife to the White House.  Two videos and transcripts.

♦Oval Office Meeting:


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[Transcript] Oval Office – 1:53 P.M. EDT – PRESIDENT TRUMP: Thank you very much. It’s great to have President Kenyatta of Kenya, and First Lady Kenyatta. Thank you very much for being here. It’s a great honor.
We have a tremendous relationship with Kenya. We have terrorism, a lot of trade, getting bigger and bigger all the time.
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