Remember that fourth quarter GDP result that seemed manipulated?  Well, I suspect the record setting trade deficit now being reported for January is an outcome of those pesky fourth quarter trade results being intentionally skewed by the withholding of December 2021 import data.

Additionally, methinks we are likely to get some increased economic clarity about why the White House needed Ukraine to become the big shiny thing with such urgency.

Just like everything else, geopolitical dynamics –especially those surrounding entrenched ideology– are always about the economics.  Someone, eventually, always has to pay.  Follow the money; there are trillions at stake.

First, keep in mind that missing Port of Los Angeles result from December as you review the import/export details:

(REUTERS) […]  The goods trade deficit jumped 7.1% to an all-time high of $107.6 billion last month. Imports of goods increased 1.7%, led by food and motor vehicles. There were also large increases in imports of industrial supplies, capital and consumer goods. Imports of other goods, however, tumbled 15.3%.

Exports dropped 1.8%, weighed down by consumer goods, motor vehicles, food and other goods. But exports of capital goods and industrial supplies increased. Trade has been a drag on gross domestic product for six straight quarters. (read more)

That missing Port of LA December import data, now being introduced into the month of January, might just be the cause of the “all time high” noted above.  I will bet one sustainable rice cake on it.

Next up, inflation.

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There is so much that’s disturbing about this interview, it is very difficult to adequately contextualize the danger we are facing as a nation.

It’s an easy disposable line to say Joe Biden is clueless about things. He stumbles with cognitive thought, has trouble putting thoughts into understandable sentence structures using words, makes frequent gaffes and generally struggles to communicate issues that are simple and not complex.  When the issues are complex, the cognitive impairment gets worse.  These are easy truths to hit him with…

However, there’s a more concerning aspect once you listen to how genuinely he has been led to believe in things that are fundamentally false. That’s where the danger comes from.  In this prompted segment on COVID and the economy, Joe Biden references a perspective, a belief in current events, that has been seeded into his brain by Surgeon General Vivek Murthy.

I know it’s hard to listen to him, but in this segment pay close attention.  Joe Biden believes, really believes, that a COVID induced mental psychosis is responsible for people convincing themselves that prices have gone up, that inflation is extreme, and that economic pain is real.

He has been told that inflation does not exist, so he believes inflation is imaginary. He is reconciling the difference between what he is told to believe and the reality that everyone lives, by accepting an explanation from his advisors – that working class people are suffering from psychosis.  WATCH (8:54):

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Transfer that reference into the policy from his office, and things become clear.  Those driving the economic policy know they are creating chaos; however, they are telling Joe Biden the economic chaos does not exist.  Without a reference for the damage his office is responsible for creating, more intentionally chaotic economic policy comes forth.

The same context applies to foreign policy, monetary policy, regulatory policy, economic policy, energy policy, education policy etc.  Scary stuff.

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The Russians are having a little fun at Joe Biden’s expense, now that the deadline for invasion has expired without invasion.

Yesterday, the Russians reminded the Ukraine government to set their alarm clocks so they did not miss the invasion.  Today the Russian government asks the Biden administration for the invasion dates, they plan to use this year, so that Moscow can coordinate the vacation plans of key military and government officials.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova asked for the invasion schedule on Telegram: “I’d like to request US and British disinformation: Bloomberg, The New York Times and The Sun media outlets to publish the schedule for our upcoming invasions for the year. I’d like to plan my vacation,” the Russian diplomat said on her Telegram channel Wednesday.

However, on a serious note, the U.S. drumbeat over the invasion of Ukraine has seriously hurt their economy.  The Russian State News Agency, TASS reports:

[…] “This steady disinformation blitz by the Western media has already resulted in a sharp deterioration of Kiev’s economic situation, with investments and businesses fleeing Ukraine, while the energy prices in Europe are growing. Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov castigated these statements as an “empty and groundless” escalation of tensions, emphasizing that Russia posed no threat to anyone.”

It’s almost as if the U.S. government wants to hurt the Ukraine economy so that the U.S. has stronger influence and can manipulate the internal politics of Ukraine… with 10% for the ‘big guy‘ of course.

Comrade Suspicious Cat remains, well, suspicious.

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The Freedom Convoy trucker protest has now expanded and is starting to hit more U.S-Canada border crossings, while the main trucker convoy remains in downtown Ottawa. The Coutts border crossing, between Alberta and Montana, is shut down as truckers have closed every lane.

However, after 12 days of pressure – and a typical Alinsky response from Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau – things are beginning to escalate. Now, in Windsor, Ontario, the Ambassador Bridge to Detroit – the busiest land crossing on the U.S-Canada border, has been effectively blocked.

The government of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is starting to panic.  “They’re essentially putting their foot on the throat of all Canadians,” Bill Blair, Canada’s minister of emergency preparedness, said Wednesday. “It can’t be allowed to persist.”  Yet, the Trudeau government is quickly discovering their biggest Achillies’ heal in this issue.  There is no logistical way to stop truckers from blocking the roads and bridges.

The logistics of trying to forcibly remove the big rigs with tow trucks is a nightmare.  Additionally, the tow truck companies are not willing to support the government in a fight against their own profession.  Slowly, the uber elite who think they are the rulers are starting to realize just how little power they have when the “workers of the world” really do “unite”.   Trudeau really is starting to panic:

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Whenever we discuss inflation, it is absolutely critical for people to understand that inflation itself is the measure of the percentage increase in a price over a period of time.

It is entirely possible, I would say absolutely guaranteed, that prices will increase even more this year as inflation begins to drop. This will be the economic story on the backside of the inflation hurricane as the Fed starts to increase interest rates. Example:

♦ 2021: A loaf of bread increases in price 50¢ from $1.00 to $1.50, a rate of inflation of 50%.

♦ 2022: That same loaf of bread increases in price by 60¢, from $1.50 to $2.10, a rate of inflation at 40%.

The price of the bread increased more in 2022 than 2021, but the rate of inflation dropped from 50% to 40%.

The White House and Federal Reserve state, correctly, that inflation is likely to drop.  However, the actual prices of the products are rising at a greater rate. This is the critical component of the inflation story that will remain with us throughout 2022.  Inflation is not measuring the increase in the price of an item.  Inflation is measuring the rate of the price increase as a percentage.

This is the context for the Federal Reserve to state today, they “hope” inflation slows down, because they are going to raise interest rates regardless of what is happening with the price of goods and services:

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People are starting to catch on.  First, how it is surfacing:

(Zero Hedge) ...”traders are paying bumper premiums for immediate supply” … “Commodities are severely undersupplied” … “The shortage of, well, everything has translated into record price of virtually all commodities: the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index, which tracks 23 energy, metals and crop futures, has touched a record this year. That has been driven in part by surging oil prices, which have hit their highest level since 2014.” (read more)

CTH readers are specifically well positioned to understand what is happening in the background we have discussed two specific issues:

(1) In any era of hyper-inflation, we always see the advanced purchasing of inventory for profit.  Meaning, when prices are quickly rising multinationals use their size and power over commodity goods to store, physically or through contracted future purchases, goods that are held until a specific target price is reached and then sold for a bigger profit.  In 2022 the “supply chain disruption” is being used as a cover.

(2) In the modern era, the major multinationals control the supply of originating products.  There’s no such thing as a free market. In the modern era it is a controlled market.

Long before the word “inflation” hit the 2021 headlines, April/May of last year, CTH specifically identified where we are right now.

In the background right now, the multinationals are exploiting the two issues above.  The Zero Hedge article “Shortages of Everything” is discussing the surfacing symptom, i.e. goods traders willing to pay premium prices to secure inventories, not necessarily the root cause.

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Gasoline prices have risen, on average, 40% in the past 11 months.  This leads to higher consumer costs across the board.  Oil, currently $90/barrel, is going to go even higher as a merge of Biden economic, regulatory, energy and foreign policies are going to make things worse.

As the Obama-Biden administration previously said when they achieved their last historic increase in gas prices, “U.S. energy prices will necessarily skyrocket“, in order to achieve their ideological climate change objectives.

(VIA CNBC) Gas prices rose to the highest level in more than seven years Friday, on the heels of the U.S. oil benchmark topping $90 per barrel for the first time since 2014. 

The national average for a gallon of gas stood at $3.423 on Friday, according to AAA, slightly surpassing the prior high-water mark of $3.422 from Nov. 8.  Friday’s price means consumers are now paying the most at the pump since Sept. 10, 2014, AAA data shows.

The national average stood at $2.44 a year ago.  The rapid rise in prices is contributing to inflationary fears across the economy and is creating a headache for the Biden administration. (read more)

Yes, a president can and does control the price of gasoline.  What can a U.S. President and administration specifically do?  We have abundant U.S. energy resources.  Quite literally the strongest in the entire world.

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The latest BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLT) report [DATA HERE] reflects a headline of 4.3 million U.S. workers quitting in December.  However, that number is 161,000 fewer quits than November. The job openings are starting to fill up.

While there is evidence the mandatory vaccine requirements are still working through the job market, we are still about another month away before the fog clears from the private sector employment data.

This Friday we will see the unemployment data from December, but in the interim this JOLT’s report is tracking with CTH expectations.

The primary driver of the quits rate has been inflation.  Workers seeking higher wages in an effort to deal with inflation can get faster paycheck results by switching jobs rather than asking current employers for more money.

We have been watching this trend for several months.  However, the rate of job-jumping is slowing down as the available jobs to jump into are fewer, and the vaccine mandate impact is settling down.

Despite the number of job openings, blue collar workers are starting to see job vacancies decreasing.  The service industries around accommodation, food services and basic dirty fingernail positions still have many vacancies; this is the epicenter of where the job jumping takes place. Employment in durable goods manufacturing is at that phase where things are about to get sketchy for tradespeople and union workers.

The white collar jobs are static and/or slightly downsizing.  The total number of hires was 6.3 million for December, a drop of 333,000 from prior month.  The number of people hired in professional and business services dropped by 159,000.

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The same people who told us to appreciate saving $0.16 on our July 4th BBQs last summer are now taking the official position there is no massive food inflation.  [DATA HERE]

Those skyrocketing prices you think you see at the grocery store are not real.  Those announcements of forecasted price increases by the food producers, well, those are not real either.  So sayeth the United States Dept of Agriculture (USDA).

In their update to the USDA pricing forecast and analysis dated January 25, 2022, the USDA claims: “2021 retail food price inflation continued at same pace as 2020 but varied among food categories.”  Oh, but it gets even more stupid:

“USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) researchers project that prices for food-at-home, or food purchased typically from grocery stores or other food stores, will increase between 1.5 and 2.5 percent in 2022, lower than the 3.5-percent increase that occurred in both 2020 and 2021. Forecasts for all food categories for 2022 are available in ERS’s monthly Food Price Outlook data product, updated January 25, 2022.” (link)

If there was ever an argument that every single institution in the U.S. government was corrupt, manipulative and ideologically bent, this claim by the USDA would be a case study in the supportive evidence.

Apparently, if you are to follow the outlook of the USDA – and reconcile their institutional hypocrisy, Joe Biden increased the rate of food stamp assistance by 25 percent for some unknown reason.  Because according to the Dept of Agriculture, “Retail food prices increased by a mere 3.5 percent in 2021, equal to the rate in 2020.”

3.5% ?

You just cannot make this up.

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Last year, when CTH discussed the original Kraft-Heinz wholesale notification for January 2022, we warned it was only the first round.  The reason for waves of price increases is specifically, because each of the processed food categories is impacted differently depending on the amount of processing involved.  Each category is different.

This understanding is why we warned everyone in October of last year to make as much preparation as possible for waves of food inflation.  The original notification for contracted terms in 30, 60 and 90 days was +20%.  Meaning this month, on those group and sectors, prices to retailers went up by 20%, and you are seeing that in the supermarket now.

For the next wave, Kraft-Heinz is telling wholesalers the fulfillment shipments arriving in March will be up to +30% on the next categories.  Oscar Mayer proteins will be the biggest increase at the top end (+30%), Maxwell House coffee on the lower end (+5-10%) and the juice and drink category around +20%.  [A $5 beverage pack will cost $6 in a few short weeks.]

The processing sector is still dealing with cumulative cost increases.  The fulfillment terms are still catching up with the increased costs.  These announcements are ON TOP OF the current price increases we are feeling.  We are entering hyper-inflation.

If you look at the notification timing from Kraft foods, January 24th, you will see the categories we predicted to come next are the exact categories being outlined in this wave.

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