The heartbeat of MAGAnomics is Main Street USA.  Keeping in mind we have suffered through three decades of economic and financial policy that was specifically structured to the benefit of Wall Street (globalists) over Main Street (nationalism); back in 2015 and 2016 when Candidate Trump started to put specifics on his economic proposals we were able to map out some likely possibilities.

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All significant economic changes take years to fully mature.  However, because it was easy to identify where nationalist economic policy would run into conflict with the prior globalist data-trends, we were able to predict a series of economic disconnects.
The primary disconnect is where Main Street inflation, wage growth and GDP growth, would be disconnected from the Federal reserve monetary policy.  Any Fed action would impact Wall Street results (sad trombone); but the disconnect that was caused by 30-years of diminished Main Street value (U.S. investment went overseas), and would mean MAGAnomic policy would grow the internal U.S. economy regardless of the Fed action.
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One of the reasons we highlight the full transcripts of President Trump’s comments, when available, is because within any back-and-forth you can often notice a signal.  This past week was no different.
The day after President Trump hosted a meeting between U.S. and Chinese officials in the Oval Office, he answered a question during an unrelated White House meeting on human trafficking.
Here’s the off-topic transcript:

Q Mr. President, are you thinking of adding on a meeting with Xi Jinping on the back end or the front end of the meeting with Kim?
THE PRESIDENT: Yeah, I’m thinking about it.
Q How close are you —
THE PRESIDENT: I mean, some of you were there yesterday. We had an incredible meeting yesterday with the Vice Premier of China — a very powerful man, highly respected. Very strong. Very respected, also, by the President — President Xi. And we had an amazing meeting on trade — mostly on trade. Actually, also on fentanyl. China has agreed to criminalize fentanyl. That’s going to have a huge impact on fentanyl coming into the country.
There is a possibility we’ll meet somewhere, whether it’s there — I’m over in a certain location. I’ll be over in a certain location there, as you know.
Q So you might do —

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After a round of trade discussions with the Trump administration, China has decided to emphasize the panda face.  It must be noted, as we review this decision, the second largest exporter of soybeans is Brazil…. that would be the same Brazil that just elected another economic nationalist, Jair Bolsonaro.
The U.S. is the #1 exporter with harvests exceeding 108 million metric tons. Brazil just happens to be the worlds #2 exporter, with harvests exceeding 86 million metric tons.
Imagine what could happen if nationalist President Trump and nationalist Jair Bolsonaro had a phone call and actually coordinated a unified and nationalist trade position toward China?  {{{nudge, nudge – wink, wink – say no more, say no more}}}  Wait… wha?

According to multiple media reports, Beijing is agreeing to an initial purchase of 5 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans as a show of good faith:

WASHINGTON – China has agreed to resume purchases of U.S. soybeans following talks Thursday between President Trump and Beijing’s top trade negotiator, Vice Premier Liu He. It will start off by purchasing 5 million metric tons.

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Attendees for the Oval office meeting include: President Donald J. Trump; Mick Mulvaney, Acting White House Chief of Staff; John Bolton, National Security Advisor; Larry Kudlow, Director of the National Economic Council; Peter Navarro, Assistant to the President for Trade & Manufacturing Policy; Matt Pottinger, Deputy Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Asian Affairs; Clete Willems, Deputy Assistant to the President and Deputy Director of the National Economic Council.
U.S. Administration team members: Secretary Mike Pompeo, Department of State; Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Department of the Treasury; Secretary Wilbur Ross, Department of Commerce; Ambassador Bob Lighthizer, Office of the U.S. Trade Representative
Chinese Delegation: Liu He, Member of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and Vice Premier of the People’s Republic of China; Wang Shouwen, Vice Minister of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China.

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[Transcript] 3:43 P.M. EST – THE PRESIDENT: Thank you very much. It’s a great honor to have the Vice Premier of China with us, and also the Vice Minister of Trade of China. We have had long discussions. This has been going on for quite some time. It will be, by far, if it happens, the biggest deal ever made — not only the biggest trade deal ever made. It will be the biggest trade deal by far, but it’ll also be the biggest deal ever made. The two largest countries doing a trade deal. There won’t be anything that will match that. And we’ll see what happens.
We’ve done very well. We’ve had a very, very strong relationship, as my relationship is with President Xi.
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Giddy up.  Two days of intense trade discussions begin today in the Eisenhower building led by U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and his Chinese counterpart Vice Premier Liu He. The stakes are high as the deadline for an agreement is March 2nd.
Ambassador Lighthizer is joined by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, and China’s arch nemesis, White House trade advisor Peter Navarro.

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Adding to the intensity, the United States just charged Chinese telecommunications company Huawei Technologies and its chief financial officer, Meng Wanzhou, with conspiring to violate U.S. sanctions on Iran by doing business through a subsidiary.  Ms. Meng was arrested in Canada at the request of the United States; her extradition has been requested by the Department of Justice.
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Director of the National Economic Council Larry Kudlow responded to a fake news story the U.S. has canceled a trade meeting with China; never happened – there was no meeting scheduled.  Mr. Kudlow discusses some of the granular issues within the ongoing trade discussion with the Chinese.
Additionally, Chairman Kudlow discusses his outlook for the economy in light of the government shutdown.

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There are some political observers who believe an extended government shutdown, that can impact the overall U.S. economy, is actually the goal behind the Pelosi strategy.  There is a plausible basis for this perspective.  Tom Donohue (et al) and Wall Street (writ large) would be the primary beneficiaries if Pelosi can break the “America First” economic focus.  It would not surprise me to find out the Big Club people behind the Pelosi/Schumer strategy hold this K-Street intent.  We’ll have to keep watching.
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The baseline when reviewing economic data from China is to remember the entire economy is controlled by the communist central government.  If they say the economy is “less strong” than previously expected, generally we can anticipate the truth is much worse.
The second aspect to remember is that many U.S. manufacturers made anticipatory advanced purchases, building up inventory ahead of possible tariffs, in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2018.  Those advance purchases can amplify any manufacturing slow down.

BEIJING (Reuters) – China is expected to report on Monday that economic growth cooled to its slowest in 28 years in 2018 amid weakening domestic demand and bruising U.S. tariffs, adding pressure on Beijing to roll out more support measures to avert a sharper slowdown.
Growing signs of weakness in China — which has generated nearly a third of global growth in the past decade — are stoking worries about risks to the world economy and are weighing on profits for firms ranging from Apple to big carmakers.

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A big day for geopolitical moves.

Earlier today President Donald Trump, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and North Korean Minister Kim Yong Chol held a 90 minute meeting at the White House discussing ongoing talks and negotiations between the U.S. and North Korea.

Following the meeting the White House announced there would be a second summit between President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong-un:

“President Donald J. Trump met with Kim Yong Chol for an hour and half, to discuss denuclearization and a second summit, which will take place near the end of February. The President looks forward to meeting with Chairman Kim at a place to be announced at a later date.”  (link)

(Via Fox News) […] The face-to-face came after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met with Kim Yong-chol, North Korea’s lead negotiator, in the nation’s capital early Friday morning to negotiate terms that could lead to a second nuclear summit between Trump and Pyongyang leader Kim Jong-un.

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U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to farmers and ranchers at the American Farm Bureau annual convention in New Orleans.  Anticipated start time 1:15pm EST.
UPDATE: Video Added

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Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Kevin Hassett appears with Lou Dobbs to discuss the strength of the U.S. economy, the partial government shutdown and the Trump administration’s trade talks with China.
Mr. Hassett, a happy warrior, walks through the recent economic data and jobs report.

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