Too funny.  The economic pretending is so strong almost every outlet leads the Gross Domestic Product news release by saying “better than expected.”  Duh!   The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases the GDP date for the second quarter (Q2) and shows a 3.0% jump in economic growth.

We say “duh”, because it was an entirely predictable result.  Why, because imports are a deduction to the GDP equation and imports dropped 30.3% in the second quarter (Table 1, line 19).   We said this was going to happen because there was a surge of imported goods in the first quarter as companies tried to be proactive with orders in advance of tariffs.

That massive influx of imports made the Q1 GDP weak (-0.5%).  Conversely, with all those goods delivered in the first quarter, the products were not imported in Q2 and the GDP rebounded.  The lack of imports, ultimately the lack of deduction, resulted in a 5.18% positive change to the second quarter GDP (Table 2, line 47).

[Source, Table 2, Line 47]

But wait, the winning doesn’t stop there.  Remember, the Big Beautiful Bill just passed in July. That means fixed asset investment is likely to expand in Q3 because 100% expensing on capital investment was part of the BBB.

But wait, there’s more.  Annual wages spiked 4.4% — double the rate of inflation (2.1%).   That means people are growing their wage incomes twice as fast as prices are rising.  Real wage growth is back again!  Yes, REAL WAGE GROWTH.

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In an effort to keep the Daily Open Thread a little more open topic we are going to start a new daily thread for “Presidential Politics”. Please use this thread to post anything relating to the Donald Trump Administration and Presidency.

This thread will refresh daily and appear above the Open Discussion Thread.

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Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy Name. Thy kingdom come. THY WILL BE DONE, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread. And forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but DELIVER US FROM EVIL.

For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen †

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President Trump holds a press conference aboard Air Force One en route back to the White House.  Currently the press comments are audio only, but will likely have video upon arrival.

President Trump begins his remarks talking about a threat delivered by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer to the state of Israel where the U.K is threatening to recognize a Palestinian state if Israel doesn’t stop the bombing in Gaza and deliver aid to the impacted citizens.   LISTEN:

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The terms Ukraine and government corruption are synonymous regardless of who is funding the schemes.  After Volodymyr Zelenskyy grabbed more power by stripping two key anti-corruption agencies, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAP), of their independence, protests erupted.

European leaders immediately noticed the intent of the power move and threatened Zelenskyy with a withdrawal of support. The current dictatorship of Zelensky and his small team then quickly reversed course.  However, the damage is done, and once again Ukranian corruption is center stage.

It doesn’t matter how much western intelligence agencies and pro-Ukraine western govt officials try to hide the nature of the duck represented by Zelenskyy by calling him a swan, eventually the quacking returns – the mask drops.

UKRAINE – […] Some also cautioned that the agitation could spark a popular uprising like the one that toppled then-President Viktor Yanukovych in 2014. “We are now in the face of the most dangerous development in all the years since Maidan,” wrote Sevgil Musayeva, editor-in-chief of the Ukrainska Pravda newspaper. And like others, she hazarded that Zelenskyy’s powerful Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak was behind the move, amid signs that NABU is preparing cases against presidential insiders.

Eventually, with public uproar mounting, Ukraine’s president bowed to the pressure and agreed to restore the independence of the agencies — a new law turning back the clock is meant to be voted on Thursday.

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The reality of the U.S-Canada economic relationship and the position of President Donald Trump is not that difficult to understand if you take all the disparate datapoints and quotes from Trump and put them into context.

During a White House meeting with Mark Carney, President Trump essentially told the Canadian Prime Minister why he was in no hurry to get to a deal with Canada.

The 35% tariffs on non-USMCA goods are going to trigger on August 1st, because the main priority of Trump -looking toward Canada- is to dissolve the USMCA.

During the May 6th oval office meeting with Carney, President Trump was discussing the USMCA and said:  “As you know it terminates fairly shortly. It gets renegotiated fairly shortly.” … “This was a transitional deal, and we’ll see what happens, we’re going to start renegotiating that” … “I don’t know if it serves a purpose anymore.”  …. “And the biggest purpose it served was, we got rid of NAFTA.”

To understand why President Trump wants to dissolve the USMCA {SEE HERE}.  To understand the technical value of dissolving the USMCA {SEE HERE}.  It’s not a complicated economic analysis; it’s common sense.

Currently, approximately 60% of the traded goods and services between the U.S. and Canada are covered by the USMCA; the remaining 40% will be hit by tariffs on August 1st at a 35% rate.

When the USMCA is renegotiated, predictably dissolved in favor of two bilateral trade agreements – one for Mexico and one for Canada, all of the U.S-Canada trade sectors will be part of the enlarged free trade negotiation.  As a result, there is absolutely no motive to engage in trade discussions now.

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In an effort to keep the Daily Open Thread a little more open topic we are going to start a new daily thread for “Presidential Politics”. Please use this thread to post anything relating to the Donald Trump Administration and Presidency.

This thread will refresh daily and appear above the Open Discussion Thread.

(more…)

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy Name. Thy kingdom come. THY WILL BE DONE, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread. And forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but DELIVER US FROM EVIL.

For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen †

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Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick describes some of the details within the new U.S-European trade agreement.

As noted, the $600 billion in regular trade products exported by the EU to the USA market will be subject to a 15% reciprocal tariff.  This approach effectively ends the Marshall Plan, sets the trade terms to balance and should generate approximately $90 billion in revenue to the U.S. treasury.

U.S. tariffs on cars and auto parts are being reduced to the baseline 15 percent — a level that matches the deal notched earlier this month by Japanese automakers. In exchange, the EU has agreed to lower its car tariffs from 10 percent to zero, trade spokesperson Olof Gill said.  The German companies are angry though, because the 25% tariff still applies to Mexico. So, German autos manufactured in Mexico (massive prior investment) will come to the USA with a 25% tariff.

In addition to the EU agreement to open their markets to U.S. products, private companies within the EU have committed to $600 billion in direct investment within the USA.  Additionally, the EU will purchase $750 billion in U.S. energy products and with the NATO commitments previously agreed significant military purchases are anticipated. That is a major purchase agreement of $250 billion each year for the next three years.

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Information is generally sketchy, however it is being widely reported about a mass shooting in downtown New York that has killed a NYPD police officer working security at a Midtown skyscraper – at least two other civilians were shot.

NEW YORK – A police officer was shot and killed when a crazed gunman wearing a bulletproof vest stormed a swanky Midtown skyscraper Monday, injuring at least two other people — before turning the gun on himself, sources said.

The man entered the 44-story building — which houses Blackstone and the NFL headquarters — armed with a rifle and opened fire at around 6:30 p.m., law enforcement sources told The Post.

At least one police officer was shot at the scene and is in critical condition. Two civilians were also struck by gunfire — one of which is also in critical condition, sources said.

The suspect barricaded himself inside and was found dead from a gun-inflicted gunshot wound on the 33rd floor, sources said. (read more)

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