White House Trade and Manufacturing Policy Advisor Peter Navarro appears on CNN to debate economic policy with Jake Tapper. As customary Tapper attempts to use the Multinational Big AG talking points to identify farmers as victims.
♦The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note dropped to 1.623% Wednesday for less than one hour; momentarily below the 2-year bond rate of 1.634%. The cause was a rapid influx of foreign capital, mostly from the EU (due to negative interest rates), into the U.S. to secure a return. This is not comparable to the historic ‘bond rate inversion’.
♦The biggest fallacy pushed in this interview, YET AGAIN, surrounds price impacts on Chinese imports. Tapper takes the talking points of the Wall Street multinationals, and their paid think-tanks, to push an empirically false assertion of the U.S. consumer paying for tariffs on China. Here’s the easiest refutation of that nonsense:

• The Steel (25%) and Aluminum (10%) tariffs have been in place for two years.
• The 25% tariff on $250 billion Chinese goods have been in place over a full year.
• The current inflation rate (Consumer Price Index) is only 1.4%.

(Bureau of Economic Analysis – Personal Income and Consumer Price Index)

If the tariffs on China were impacting consumers, inflation would be much higher. In fact the exact opposite is happening. Because the protectionist Chinese and EU currency manipulation hits *ALL* imports, including non-tariff products, we are actually importing deflation.

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National Economic Council Chairman Larry Kudlow appears on NBC with Chuck Todd to debate the issues surrounding current trade and economic policy.  While Todd is obviously annoying, Kudlow makes two important points:

1.  The Q3 CapEx (capital expenditure) spending reflects a domestic energy sector investment pause related to the dropped cost of oil. A fluctuation related to extraction costs and projected finished product price. [Energy companies pause on low price.]
2. The Sept. “Next Step” tariff delay relates to pre-contracted prices of holiday goods with the import price attached to lower dollar value at the time of contract. The delay allows the arrival of product without price impact. If products were determined with current valuations the current arrival price would have been lower (offsetting tariffs).

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For all intents and purposes Germany is the EU, because German economic policy dictates the outcomes of all EU economic policy.  So as the EU promises to engage in more central bank monetary printing (quantitative easing) simultaneously Germany promises to keep negative interest rates floating as long as possible. [EU Parliament pictured below]
Yes, the EU is in serious structural economic trouble; and that is likely the real reason why quivering Chancellor Angela Merkel has decided to exit the political stage before the larger communal catches on.

Within the remarks by German Finance Minister Scholz it is the lamentation about the lack of investment into their grand collective economic scheme where you find the economic dissonance, and ultimately the hilarious punch lines:

BERLIN (Reuters) – German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said on Saturday that he expected interest rates to remain very low for “the next few years”, adding that companies should seize the opportunity of near-zero borrowing costs to boost private sector investment.
The European Central Bank has already signaled even more monetary stimulus for the euro zone economy, hoping to arrest a downward spiral that could lead to an economic recession.

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An interesting article in the South China Morning Post (SCMP) highlights how China is shifting their procurement priority from minerals used in manufacturing (cobalt, copper) to the acquisition of food and agriculture products.
The impact is being felt throughout Africa, where mining companies are shutting down operations because Chinese demand no longer exists.
Articles like this highlight the ancillary impacts of a weakened Chinese economy.
Despite the proclamations by Beijing about their ability to withstand the withdrawal of the U.S. as a primary customer for manufactured goods, reality shows they cannot.
There is a confluence of events all leading to radical changes just below the surface.  China has been burning cash to subsidize industries impacted by U.S. tariffs.  Simultaneously Beijing has lowered the value of their currency in an effort to eliminate the tariff impact in the cost of their finished goods. However, as the ideological economic conflict between the U.S. and China continues, Beijing cannot hold their position indefinitely.
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President Trump is having dinner tonight with Tim Cook, aka “Tim Apple.”  This dinner comes on the heels of USTR Lighthizer announcing a postponement of “next step” 10 percent tariffs against Chinese manufactured products…  Interestingly, the one of the product groups within the delay is personal computers…. Interestingly, Tim Apple was going to launch production assembly of the Macintosh personal computer in China.

To say that Tim Cook has been attempting to define and quantify the strength of President Trump’s tariff position against China would be an understatement.  Even before president-elect Trump took office, Tim Cook was engaged on this specific aspect.
As a responsible steward for the brand, the engagement by “Tim Apple” makes lots of sense. The engaged approach by CEO Cook is what all multinationals should do.  Advocate for their interests; keep an open mind to aspects that are larger than self-interest; keep a respectful seat at the table; and be a responsible steward for his American shareholders.
Ultimately Tim Cook is recognizing President Trump will advance those policies that benefit Main Street and he will avoid policies that do not benefit Main Street. Trump’s Main Street economic patriotism is likely a paradigm shift for Cook; amid a career experience of politicians advancing Wall Street interests.  Hence, the constant evaluation.
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Finally an economic analyst gets prime-time media pundits to listen as he describes the fundamental difference between the U.S. “Economy” (Main Street) and the U.S. “Markets” (Wall Street).  Charles Payne understands most of this, but El-Erian has it nailed.
Allianz Group chief economic advisor, Mohamed El-Erian, accurately describes what is happening in an era where deglobalization is taking place. The U.S. economy is strong; however, the multinationals on Wall Street -invested overseas- are exposed.  Thus there’s a disconnect and accompanying market volatility.
This is well worth watching because this is the first well-regarded financial pundit that is speaking truth to Wall Street in terms the panel pundits will understand/accept.

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There is nothing that China and the EU can do to stop the de-globalization process; and efforts to stimulate their economy, more quantitative easing (pumping money) while the global supply chains are being shifted, are futile.
The more a nations’ economy is dependent on exports, the more exposure they have to the inherent downsides of de-globalization.   U.S. companies that are invested in these nations will lose their investment over time; some rapidly.  This will keep the stock market volatile, yet the Main Street USA economy is thriving.
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Chopper pressers are the best pressers.  A confident, cool and assertively diplomatic President Donald Trump holds an impromptu press conference with media as he departs New Jersey for a campaign rally in New Hampshire. [Video and Transcript Below]

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[Transcript] – THE PRESIDENT: So, tremendous retail numbers were announced today, which really is a great indicator of how well our country is doing, how well our economy is doing. Those are real numbers. Walmart announced; others announced. We had some tremendous numbers come out today, which I’m sure you saw. So we’re very happy about that. We’re doing very well.
The economy is incredible. The consumer — probably above all else, the consumer is doing incredibly.
So, go ahead. Any questions?
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If you needed any empirical evidence to prove the doomsday proclamations by the financial pundits are false claims, just look at the July consumer spending results. July spending more than doubled expectations.
July results were +0.7 percent, against the economic forecast of +.03 percent.   Consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. GDP and overall economy. Doesn’t exactly sound like Main Street is on the precipice of a recession. Oh my.

Average wage growth remains +3.5% year-over-year.  The growth of overall income for American workers exceeds +5.4 percent year-over-year.  Unemployment is a low 3.6% and U.S. consumer inflation remains low at 1.4 percent.  Meaning: the middle-class has more disposable income to save or SPEND; and that’s what is happening….

• Reminder #1: Consumer spending is two-thirds of the U.S. economy.
• Reminder #2: We consume more than 80 percent of our own production (products created in USA).  We do not rely on exports.
• Reminder #3: Because of #1 and #2, the “Main Street” U.S. economy is self sustaining -much stronger- and more protected from the negative impacts on the global economy.
• Reminder #4: Who/What is at risk from global contraction? The Wall Street economy (compromised primarily of multinationals).  What is not at risk, the Main St economy.
• Reminder #5:  Because of #3 and #4, Wall Street can drop while Main Street thrives.

This is the fundamental disconnect. These Main Street results, this dynamic, is the space between two economic engines that CTH has been describing for three years.  The investment class on Wall Street can go through pain, while the middle-class on Main Street thrive.  We are in the space between.
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Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appears (in studio) on CNBC to discuss the current state of the U.S. economy, the ongoing issues with communist China, the ‘next step’ trade tariffs and the situation in Hong Kong.

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A “negative yield curve“;  a pending “economic recession“.  These are the obtuse and ridiculous proclamations of the Mainstream Corporate Media today.  So let’s take a moment to discuss how stunningly -intentionally- disconnected they are.
Always remember, there are trillions of dollars at stake; and these media entities have a vested interest in maintaining the Wall Street position, adverse to Main Street USA.
First the “negative yield curve” aspect; where long-term bond rates (returns on investment) are lower than short-term rates (returns).  As Reuters proclaims:

“A key bond market metric turned negative for the first time since 2007 on Wednesday, sending stocks tumbling”…

I must admit, I actually started laughing out loud when I first read that proclamation. Allow me to introduce a radical concept in economics: “supply and demand” !
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