Remember that 2016 conversation about retail inflation, Q2 wage growth, durable goods spending and non-durable goods expenditures…  Well, in a growing economy; a bigly expanding economy; with wages actually increasing as an authentic outcome of expanded hiring and jobs, jobs, jobs… in conjunction with lowered tax rates…. you get more money in your pocket.
This natural Main Street dynamic leads to increased consumer spending, specifically in the retail sectors influenced by who?… Oh, yeah, those middle-class economic beneficiaries of all the above.
The expert financial pundits are shocked, shocked I tell you… shocked; when, all of a sudden, the convergence of MAGAnomic Main Street policies delivers results.  DUH!

The Commerce Department – Economic and Statistics Administration – released the figures from July 2018 retail sales today (full pdf available here), showing an incredibly strong .5% increase in spending in July, bringing a 6.4% increase year-over-year;  and the results have dropped the jaws of the “experts”:

“Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales nudging up 0.1 percent in July.” (link)
“Retail spending in the United States increased a half-percent during the month of July — well beyond what experts predicted.” (link)
“U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in July as households boosted purchases of motor vehicles and clothing, suggesting the economy remained strong” (link)

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The National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) is an assembly and survey of small business owners throughout the U.S.  In the latest survey (full pdf here) overall optimism is the second highest ever recorded at 107.9 (the highest reading was 108 in 1983).

The full press release is available here.  The full pdf of the survey is available here. The executive summary outlines the overall content and highlights the sentiment amid Main Street U.S.A.:

[…] Although some panned any celebration of the 4.1 percent second quarter GDP growth, small business owners beg to disagree. At least in the small business sector of the economy, Main Street’s performance over the last 21 months is unprecedented based on reports for the past 45 years by hundreds of thousands of NFIB’s member firms. Owners have never been so optimistic for so long. This has translated to improved employment and investment spending that buoys GDP growth, even at the end of what will be the longest expansion in modern history.
Consumer sentiment is at record high levels. Consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of our economy, posted 4 percent growth in Q2. Historically revised data show that consumers have been saving much more than thought, and income gains in recent months have been solid, providing support for spending in the second half. The record levels of firms reporting higher compensation is a clear indication that wages will be rising further in the second half.

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Methinks Maria Bartiromo is the only media person who has caught on to “the secret“.
Within her wording and presentation today, inside this interview Fox News Maria Bartiromo hints toward her understanding of the Trump trade strategy as it pertains to Mexico, Canada and ::cough:: NAFTA ::cough::

 Nudge/Nudge – Elbow/Elbow – Wink/Wink – Say no more/Say no more!

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After the end of Round #6 (January 2018), it was obvious to POTUS Trump a NAFTA renegotiated deal was impossible.  In March, 2018, Team Trump stealthily began moving in a different direction.  In June,2018, Canada accidentally made the admission there were no ongoing talks between the U.S. and Canada.  The reasoning is simple yet stunning.
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Earlier today U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer messaged a warm birthday greeting to Mexican Foreign Secretary Louis Videgaray during ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Mexican trade teams (video below).

Canada is FUBAR. No-one quite knows how FUBAR Canada is, because no-one has  followed the brilliant Wolverine crew closely enough to spot the strategy.
At the strategic direction of President Trump; and it is a really brilliant workaround strategy; the U.S. and Mexican teams are approaching the current NAFTA negotiations from a position of bilateral trade.   Trade watchers, Wall Street experts, financial pundits and the entire media apparatus are missing what Team USA are doing right in front of their faces…. they’ve obviously never followed or studied Trump’s out of the box problem solving when it comes to complex deals.
I won’t rehash the NAFTA flaws; familiar CTH readers know them well.  However, the bottom line is NAFTA is NOT, repeat N.O.T being renegotiated. I was going to remain silent, but I think it’s safe, Lighthizer is close enough to a deal to explain what’s happening.
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Interesting.  As previously said: the biggest takeaway from the documents today, showing the 2017 communication between Christopher Steele and Bruce Ohr, is the fact that Steele viewed Robert Mueller as part of the soft coup team.
In this interview Rudy Giuliani goes further than ever before in calling out the nature of the DOJ/FBI investigation; and specifically outlining the Robert Mueller team as part of the larger conspiracy group to take-down President Donald Trump.
According to Giuliani this information/evidence will surface over the next year to year-and-a-half, and will lead to a fundamental change in the institutions of the Department of Justice and FBI.

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You can call it a soft coup, or you can call it politicization of the DOJ and FBI, but the end result is the same – the intentional effort to manipulate, influence, and ultimately subvert an election for the presidency of the United States.  ~SD

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If there was a five-click dial available as a severity meter between the U.S. and China, something happened internally in Beijing, over the last 72 hours, because that dial just triggered movement from 3 to 4… Keep watching everything in the world of geopolitics with a mental 360° radar sweep looking for Chinese influence/interests.

Nuance and subtlety is everything in China. Culturally harsh tones are seen as a sign of weakness and considered intensely impolite in public displays between officials; especially within approved and released statements by officials representing the government.
Therefore, when we see China publicly use strong language – it indicates a level of internal disposition beyond the defined western angst. Big Panda becomes Red Dragon; there is no mid-status or evolutionary phase.

SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China’s state media on Monday lashed out at the policies of U.S. President Donald Trump in an usually direct attack, accusing him of “starring in his own carefully orchestrated street fighter-style deceitful drama”.
Trump’s wish for others to play along with his drama is “wishful thinking,” the ruling Communist Party’s People’s Daily newspaper said in an editorial.

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U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and a delegation of out-going and in-coming Mexican trade officials have been conducting intensive NAFTA negotiation talks for the past several weeks.  The out-going Mexican officials, led by Ildefonso Guajardo, are optimistic terms of agreement can be reached with the U.S; the incoming Mexican officials led by AMLO’s Jesus Seade, not so much.
The key issue is still the NAFTA fatal flaw that allows both Canada and Mexico to exploit their access to the U.S. market as brokers for imported Asian parts, assembled in Mexico/Canada, and the finished goods shipped into the U.S.  That structural issue remains unresolved; hence the impasse.
Meanwhile, Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland wants to reenter the trade discussion after being shut out since the beginning of May.

(Reuters) – Canada is “very keen” on concluding negotiations to renew the North American Free Trade Agreement as soon as possible, Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland said on Saturday, amid signs of progress after months of delays.

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Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appears on Fox News this morning to discuss Phase II in the economic confrontation with China.  The hurt will increase until behavior changes.
Phase II is direct, deliberate and fully confrontational trade engagement with extreme prejudice to financially hurt the Chinese economy and present the communist regime with examples of what will lie ahead if they do not concede to U.S. terms.
The first objective in Phase II is to convince the Chinese the war is real.  Beijing cannot yet fathom the United States is not going to allow the import of low cost manufactured goods…. they believe, wrongly, against a history with all previous administrations, that President Trump is bluffing.

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As POTUS Trump and the U.S. trade team target ever increasing tariff pressure upon Beijing to change their behavior, keep a close eye on North Korea. Given the zero-sum approach of the Chinese; and their history of weaponizing the DPRK; we could expect to see Beijing roll out nuclear antagonism again in an overt effort to gain concessions.
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross discusses the need to hit China with even more economic pressure. WATCH:

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Main Street U.S.A., the American worker and the American farmer know what is at stake. The globalist Wall Street financial class, and their financial media, can gripe and moan, but that is not going to deter President Trump from this critical trade reset.  When Secretary Ross says: “we’re going to win this“, he speaks with knowledge of who controls the maximum leverage…. it ain’t Chairman Xi.
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In June and July last year it became obvious President Trump was going to initiate a full-frontal geopolitical confrontation with China based on their ambitions for economic conquest.  We labeled the confrontation: Eagle -vs- Red Dragon.
Specifically around: intellectual property theft; massive U.S. trade imbalances; imposed tariffs, and ridiculous non-tariff barriers put in place by China, we anticipated the conflict would eventually force Beijing to drop the Panda mask and expose their economic intentions.  Additionally there was clarity within President Trump’s approach for any observer who was willing to accept the history of Mr. Trump’s views on the larger issues. In short, POTUS Trump will not back down.
In March of 2018 U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer completed a section 301 review of China’s trade practices.  [SEE HERE] Section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act of 1974 authorizes the President to take all appropriate action, including retaliation, to obtain the removal of any act, policy, or practice of a foreign government that violates an international trade agreement or is unjustified, unreasonable, or discriminatory, and that burdens or restricts U.S. commerce.  However, as talks with China progressed, President Trump shelved the 301 action to see where negotiations would end-up.
Due to the severity of communist ideology, and the intransigence of China to make any modification to their global economic plans, Chairman Xi Jinping made the strategic decision to elevate the confrontation in full Red Dragon mode.  The May and June, 2018, negotiations between the U.S. and China provided no progress.  The 301 review of China is now pulled back off the shelf, and President Trump assembles his trade-war strategy:
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