Chopper pressers are the best pressers.  A confident, cool and assertively diplomatic President Donald Trump holds an impromptu press conference with media as he departs New Jersey for a campaign rally in New Hampshire. [Video and Transcript Below]

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[Transcript] – THE PRESIDENT: So, tremendous retail numbers were announced today, which really is a great indicator of how well our country is doing, how well our economy is doing. Those are real numbers. Walmart announced; others announced. We had some tremendous numbers come out today, which I’m sure you saw. So we’re very happy about that. We’re doing very well.
The economy is incredible. The consumer — probably above all else, the consumer is doing incredibly.
So, go ahead. Any questions?
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If you needed any empirical evidence to prove the doomsday proclamations by the financial pundits are false claims, just look at the July consumer spending results. July spending more than doubled expectations.
July results were +0.7 percent, against the economic forecast of +.03 percent.   Consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. GDP and overall economy. Doesn’t exactly sound like Main Street is on the precipice of a recession. Oh my.

Average wage growth remains +3.5% year-over-year.  The growth of overall income for American workers exceeds +5.4 percent year-over-year.  Unemployment is a low 3.6% and U.S. consumer inflation remains low at 1.4 percent.  Meaning: the middle-class has more disposable income to save or SPEND; and that’s what is happening….

• Reminder #1: Consumer spending is two-thirds of the U.S. economy.
• Reminder #2: We consume more than 80 percent of our own production (products created in USA).  We do not rely on exports.
• Reminder #3: Because of #1 and #2, the “Main Street” U.S. economy is self sustaining -much stronger- and more protected from the negative impacts on the global economy.
• Reminder #4: Who/What is at risk from global contraction? The Wall Street economy (compromised primarily of multinationals).  What is not at risk, the Main St economy.
• Reminder #5:  Because of #3 and #4, Wall Street can drop while Main Street thrives.

This is the fundamental disconnect. These Main Street results, this dynamic, is the space between two economic engines that CTH has been describing for three years.  The investment class on Wall Street can go through pain, while the middle-class on Main Street thrive.  We are in the space between.
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Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appears (in studio) on CNBC to discuss the current state of the U.S. economy, the ongoing issues with communist China, the ‘next step’ trade tariffs and the situation in Hong Kong.

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A “negative yield curve“;  a pending “economic recession“.  These are the obtuse and ridiculous proclamations of the Mainstream Corporate Media today.  So let’s take a moment to discuss how stunningly -intentionally- disconnected they are.
Always remember, there are trillions of dollars at stake; and these media entities have a vested interest in maintaining the Wall Street position, adverse to Main Street USA.
First the “negative yield curve” aspect; where long-term bond rates (returns on investment) are lower than short-term rates (returns).  As Reuters proclaims:

“A key bond market metric turned negative for the first time since 2007 on Wednesday, sending stocks tumbling”…

I must admit, I actually started laughing out loud when I first read that proclamation. Allow me to introduce a radical concept in economics: “supply and demand” !
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White House trade and manufacturing policy advisor Peter Navarro appears on Fox News to discuss the status of the U.S-China trade negotiations and the reason for a USTR delay on some product tariffs.
Peter Navarro confirms what we noted from the office of USTR Robert Lighthizer yesterday.  On December 15th “the tariffs will go on.”   While the statement flies over the head of Stuart Varney, Navarro confirms the “next step” process that Lighthizer implied.

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More below
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Those who could not see this coming are those who just don’t pay attention to how President Trump operates the geopolitical influence of economics.  This is Trumpian.
U.S. President Donald Trump and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson are walking their respective trade teams through a process to deliver a U.S-U.K trade deal on the day after a no-deal Brexit is scheduled to happen October 31st.  An interim trade agreement that goes into effect November 1st 2019 is pure Donald Trump win/win deal-making.

President Trump supports the nationalistic position, purposes and intents of Brexit. PM Johnson has promised to deliver Brexit by the mandatory date of October 31st.  One of the benefits, and also concerns amid the political left in the U.K, surrounds the economic impacts.  President Trump and PM Johnson would counter all those concerns with the announcement of an agreement for an interim bilateral trade deal ahead of Brexit.
This strategic approach, a deal that delivers both the Brexit result and the economic stability to offset any Brexit downside concerns, was the original idea that President Trump proposed to Theresa May two years ago.

LONDON (Reuters) – Britain and the United States are discussing a partial trade accord that could take effect on Nov. 1, the day after Britain is due to leave the European Union, a senior Trump administration official said on Tuesday.

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First rule in geopolitics, it’s always about the economics.  Second rule in geopolitics: refer to rule #1.    Understanding this basic truism is the key to understand how President Trump is able to be so effective.  There are trillions at stake, and infinite interests.

“Economic security is national security.” ~President Trump

All politics circles back to the underlying economics; whether it is an individual financial self-interest for a specific politician, or whether it is a larger financial interest for a group or even a nation.  Everything is always about the money, and that essential truth is why Donald Trump is so uniquely qualified, influential and stunningly effective. Today:

(VIA CBC) The United States would “enthusiastically” support a no-deal Brexit if that is what the British government decided to do, U.S. national security adviser John Bolton told reporters on Monday.
[…]  As the United Kingdom prepares to leave the European Union on Oct. 31, its biggest geopolitical shift since the Second World War, many diplomats expect London to become increasingly reliant on the United States.
“If that’s the decision of the British government we will support it enthusiastically, and that’s what I’m trying to convey. We’re with you, we’re with you,” said Bolton, in London for two days of talks with British officials. The U.S. administration is seeking an improved U.S.-British relationship with Prime Minister Boris Johnson after sometimes tense ties between Donald Trump and Johnson’s predecessor, Theresa May.

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After reviewing the unexpected resignation of Canadian Ambassador to the United States, David MacNaughton, several aspects of the U.S-Canada economic relationship; and the larger political ideological relationship between the far-left in both countries; begins to take a sharper focus.
Justin from Canada has acquiesced to the influence of democrat Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, and agreed to postpone any USMCA ratification vote in Parliament until Pelosi gives Justin her approval.  For political purposes, Speaker Pelosi is attempting to stall the USMCA vote in congress, which directly supports China, as long as possible.

When we first reviewed this political quid-pro-quo, we wondered if Justin from Canada was actually willing to hurt his own economy just to assist the political efforts of U.S. democrats.  Unfortunately, the answer is a resounding yes.

OTTAWA—Canada’s unemployment rate rose in July as the economy unexpectedly shed jobs for a second straight month, fueling speculation over a possible Bank of Canada rate cut later this year.
The Canadian economy lost a net 24,200 jobs in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, Statistics Canada said Friday. Market expectations were for a net job increase of 12,500.

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White House Manufacturing and Trade Policy Advisor Peter Navarro appears on CNBC to discuss the turbulent week on Wall Street and the current status of the U.S. trade position with China.  Pundits are starting to accept that bigger tariffs are on the horizon.  Team Trump is not backing down; and our U.S. position is much stronger.
On one hand, Wall Street loves cheap money (low fed rates). However, on the other hand 51% of all Chinese manufacturing is done by U.S. owned multinationals; and those corporations don’t want to see the retention efforts of China undermined with a lower dollar value (lower fed rate). As a consequence Wall Street is schizophrenic.

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On the issue of manufacturers leaving China, Forbes has this outlook: “American businesses now have a month to prepare their supply chains for the impending tariff changes. Companies that do well will be the ones who have taken Trump at his word, rather than to doubt the Disruptor-in-Chief’s position on China. Further disruptions are coming to the U.S. supplier network, impacting how equity analysts view companies, recommend their stocks, and — in a broader sense — impacting the business cycle, already long in the tooth.” (link)
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It is hard to believe but it’s been three years since we first outlined what would happen if candidate Donald Trump’s “America First” policy was implemented.  Specifically how the Federal Reserve would essentially become disconnected and functionally obsolescent for a few years.  As a result of the evidence visible, we are in a unique position to explain.
Staying in the big picture, a disconnected Fed was very predictable.  In the past 35 years the Wall Street multinationals gained as cheap money flowed overseas to start global manufacturing operations; Main Street USA suffered.  When you reverse this process by punishing the multinationals (tariffs), shifting the global supply chain, and changing the best location for investment dollars, Main Street USA benefits.  President Trump August 7th tweets statement:

Notice the “we are competing against other countries” part of the statement.  This is key to understanding what is in the future.  The Wall Street ‘multinationals’, corporations making and selling goods, are invested in production within other countries.
On one hand, Wall Street loves cheap money (low fed rates). However, on the other hand Wall Street multinationals are invested in overseas manufacturing; and those corporations don’t want to see the retention efforts of China and the EU undermined with a lower dollar value (lower fed rate).  So Wall Street is schizophrenic (check the stock market).
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