Looks like we are going to find out exactly what Joe Manchin’s leverage was over Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer {REMINDER HERE}.

On July 31, According to Manchin the deal between himself, Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi and Joe Biden includes his support for the current green energy spending, in exchange for two new items in future legislation: 1) Streamlined energy permitting/regulation; and 2) Increased development of Oil, Coal, Gas.  Both of these pieces of legislation have to be handled in a separate Senate bill.

According to Manchin, his agreement to the current spending bill was contingent upon a promise that: (A) Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will generate a new bill for streamlined energy permitting and increased oil, gas and coal development; (B) House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will take up the Senate bill and whip enough of her House Democrat membership to join with Republicans in support of that Senate bill; and (C) Joe Biden will sign that increased energy production bill.

Here’s the important part.  Senator Manchin claimed he has leverage over Biden, Pelosi and Schumer to ensure a new bill with those priorities is created and advanced.  Manchin further claimed there were “consequences” for Biden, Pelosi and Schumer if they were to renege on the deal.  He is quite emphatic about that point if you listen to the NBC interview. (LINK)

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Neil Oliver returns from a vacation to deliver one of his best contemplative monologues to date.  Mr. Oliver rightly says that if you reset your historic reference points, and you begin to recognize that thinking the unthinkable is actually the best reference point for your current state, it is like a key that unlocks the answers.

We are the battered spouses in an abusive relationship with government. Nothing we can do is going to appease the abuser, it is the inherent state of their disposition. WATCH:

[Transcript] – It is hard to think the unthinkable – but there comes a time when there’s nothing else for it. People raised to trust the powers that be – who have assumed, like I once did, that the State, regardless of its political flavour at any given moment, is essentially benevolent and well-meaning – will naturally try and keep that assumption of benevolence in mind when trying to make sense of what is going on around them.

People like us, you and me, raised in the understanding that we are free, that we have inalienable rights, and that the institutions of this country have our best interests at heart, will tend to tie ourselves in knots rather than contemplate the idea those authorities might actually be working against us now. I took that thought of benevolent, well-meaning authority for granted for most of my life, God help me. Not to put too fine a point on it, I was as gullible as the next chump.

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The price differential is remarkable.  In this report from NewsNation, they follow Americans who travel to Mexico for their essential purchases.  Not only is gasoline over a $1/gal cheaper, but everyday essential items are significantly lower.

Retailers in the video highlight an increase in sales of 20 to 30% from cross border shoppers. Biden’s economic plan is Making Mexico Great Again.  WATCH:

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has released the July inflation figures known as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [DATA HERE]. I’m not going to spend much time on the review because the big picture results are exactly what we expected, the appearance of a false inflation plateau, drop and/or moderation of inflation.

The July energy prices dropped significantly driven by a reduction in consumer demand for gasoline and fuel oil, which lowered prices.   We can expect a very similar outcome in August (report in Sept).

Most financial and economic media are reporting an “unexpected” drop in inflation, ex:

“Prices that consumers pay for a variety of goods and services rose 8.5% in July from a year ago, a slowing pace from the previous month due largely to a drop in gasoline prices. On a monthly basis, prices were flat as energy prices broadly declined 4.6% and gasoline fell 7.7%. That offset a 1.1% monthly gain in food prices and a 0.5% increase in shelter costs. {link}

Most econ people will look at the price drop sectors and accept that consumer spending on durable goods and non-essentials has become a downward price point on key categories like vehicles etc.

This is the ‘stag’ part of the ‘stagflation’ (economy), or the new lingo; the ‘dis’ part of the ‘disinflation’ (consumer spending).

For the middle-class or working class, especially those families with young children, I would shake all those data points away, clear the table and look more closely at [BLS Table-2] to see where our eyeballs should be focused.

Look closely at all food group products that originate as “ROW CROPS” and/or “GRAIN”.   Just by looking at the current rate of price increase, you can easily see that all grain and row crop outcomes are going to explode in price in around 60 to 90 days.

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The previous first quarter productivity drop of 7.4% was the largest quarterly drop in 74 years.  Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports the second quarter productivity dropped another 4.6% [Data Here].

For July, companies are paying 5.7% higher wages and getting a 4.6% drop in output, resulting in a total unit labor cost increase of 10.8%.  That increase in final output cost will either result in higher prices or lower profits.

With weak consumer purchasing (low demand) already creating an inventory surplus, hence lower outputs, lower profit leads to cutbacks.  The largest company expenses are generally labor and energy costs. The more variable and controllable of those two expenses is labor.  You know what comes next.

(WSJ) – […] Rising productivity is the key to improving living standards; it allows companies to raise wages without raising prices and fueling inflation. Instead, businesses appear to be paying workers more to produce less. The higher unit labor costs suggest companies will either endure lower profits or pass on higher costs to consumers.

“The trend in productivity growth has worsened compared to prior to the pandemic, and the surge in unit labor costs makes the Fed’s challenge of getting inflation back down to its 2% target all the more challenging,” Wells Fargo economist Sarah House said in a research note.

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Prior to the 51-50 passage of the massive $700+ billion democrat spending bill, they called it the “inflation reduction act.”  However, after Senate passage they are now calling it the climate change bill.  Funny how that happens.

The bill itself contains absolutely nothing that will lower inflation; in fact, the bill itself will raise supply-side inflation in direct proportion to the energy production it reduces. To offset the contracted revenue caused by a much smaller economy, the Democrats have doubled the IRS tax army that will enforce personal income tax compliance.

The income tax compliance portion of the bill is very significant on two fronts.  First, it literally doubles the size of the IRS, giving them much more power to conduct audits and capture taxes from income earned.  As a review of tax audits has shown, the ordinary U.S. taxpayer is the target of this increase enforcement mechanism, not corporate tax review.

WASHINGTON – […] The bill, a product of 18 months of intense wrangling, passed by a margin of 51 to 50 on Sunday with Vice-President Kamala Harris casting the deciding vote. It was previously blocked by two Democrat senators who shared Republican concerns about its cost.

The Senate bill includes $369bn for climate action, the second largest investment on Green New Deal spending in US history.  The largest bill on climate change was the previous Obama-era American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (AARA), that paid billions of dollars to solar groups (ex. now bankrupt Solyndra) and climate energy companies connected to Democrat donors.

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Every once in a while, you come across an article that seems like one thing but is actually another thing entirely.  The NPR story of how “The U.S. made a breakthrough battery discovery — then gave the technology to China“, is one such article.

Several people sent this to us for opinion and review; however, the background of the article reveals something quite different. Then again, perhaps that’s exactly why NPR wrote it.

[READ THE STORY HERE]

It is important to read the story as presented by NPR, because it is oddly written as if someone is trying to use the outlet to get out ahead of something else.

The issue surrounds a new product technology called a vanadium redox flow battery.  Essentially the U.S. government funded scientists to develop an advanced battery that could store energy without degrading.  After success, the technology was then sent to China for manufacturing.  China then invested heavily in the product and used the technology to mass manufacture the battery for the global market. The United States is now behind in the product development and manufacture.

As the story is told in NPR, “the Chinese company didn’t steal this technology. It was given to them — by the U.S. Department of Energy. First in 2017, as part of a sublicense, and later, in 2021, as part of a license transfer.”  Except that’s not what happened at all.  There is some major ‘ass-covering’ in that false narrative.

The lead scientist working on the vanadium redox flow battery project was a man named Gary Yang.  Mr. Yang was born in China and emigrated to the U.S. becoming a U.S. citizen.  Yang worked with U.S. scientists to develop the technology and was funded by a multi-million research grant from the Dept of Energy.

After their initial success, according to NPR, “in 2012, Yang applied to the Department of Energy for a license to manufacture and sell the batteries.”  The Dept of Energy license was granted, and Yang launched UniEnergy Technologies as the parent company to develop the commercial application of the product.

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McDonalds has announced they are dropping their program testing plant-based meats because people didn’t like it.

As noted by the Washington Times, “other trials at Panda Express and Yum! Brands (KFC, Taco Bell, and Pizza Hut) have also ended without a subsequent product launch. Beyond Meat products at Dunkin’, Hardee’s, and A&W have been discontinued after launching.”

Apparently, American consumers do not want to eat fake meat; at least not fake meat made from plants.

Next up….  Bug meat.

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The good news is that gasoline prices have dropped in the past several weeks to an average of $4.13/gal.  However, the bad news is that most of the drop in price is related to gasoline demand dropping to the same level as July 2020 during the pandemic lockdown phase.

Obviously, $4.13/gal is still a very high price for gasoline, and that is leading to fewer people purchasing gasoline.

(Via Fox) – […] New data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that gas demand dropped from 9.25 million barrels per day to 8.54 million per day last week. That’s 1.24 million barrels per day lower than last year and “in line with demand at the end of July 2020,” when there were widespread virus-related restrictions and fewer people were hitting the road, according to AAA. 

The latest demand figures bolster a recent AAA survey that revealed 64% of drivers had changed their driving habits or lifestyle since March to offset the high prices at the pump. (read more)

If you think about the position of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC or OPEC+), it makes sense for them to recognize the intentions of the western leaders to shrink the western industrial economies and respond accordingly.

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A few days ago, we were discussing the disconnect within the economy as it relates to corporate valuations.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics report today [DATA HERE] highlights another economic disconnect, this time with labor.  According to the BLS survey 528,000 jobs were added to the economy in July, the unemployment rate drops to 3.5%.

The household data [Table A] shows the number of eligible workers unemployed dropped 242,000; however, the number of eligible workers no longer in the workforce increased by 239,000.  The total labor force is shrinking as unemployment drops.

Keep in mind the previous BLS survey of job openings (JOLTS report) showed available jobs dropped 605,000 in July.  “On the last business day of June, the number and rate of job openings decreased to 10.7 million (-605,000) and 6.6 percent, respectively. The largest decreases in job openings were in retail trade (-343,000), wholesale trade (-82,000), and in state and local government education (-62,000).” [JOLTS survey]

Going back to today’s release, 303,000 part-time jobs were added in July; these are workers working part-time for economic reasons.  The Household Data shows that within the leisure and hospitality sector [Table B-1] restaurants and bars added 74,000 jobs.

If we combine both BLS surveys two days apart is: 605,000 job openings cancelled, and 528,000 new jobs gained.

Of the 528,000 new jobs gained, 303,000 were part time jobs with the largest growth in the jobs in restaurants and bars.

Again, blending data from both reports and focusing on retail.  The retail sector cancelled 343,000 job openings in July, and the retail sector added 21,600 jobs in July.  Within the retail sector (table B-1), jobs at automotive dealers, furniture stores and clothing/apparel stores dropped by a combined 7,200 jobs.

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