We can see no political scenario where the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will report a negative second quarter GDP number, despite the reality of a contracted economy.

A negative second quarter GDP would mean the Joe Biden economic policies have resulted in a recession.   Yes, the economy is contracting; and yes, the economy is in an actual recession.  However, it would be too politically damaging for the federal bureaucrats to quantify it accurately.

That being said, the Atlanta Fed is now calculating a negative 1% second quarter GDP result [DATA HERE]:

(Fed Reserve) – The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is -1.0 percent on June 30, down from 0.3 percent on June 27. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.7 percent and -8.1 percent, respectively, to 1.7 percent and -13.2 percent, respectively. (link)

CTH predicts the BEA is likely to generate a statistical report somewhere in the +0.5% range. Just enough positive GDP to avoid the literal definition of a recession.  The BEA report will be issued at the end of July and if they follow recent patterns, they will likely underestimate the inflation rate as well as under-calculate the import data.  (more…)

The Environmental Protect Agency (EPA) was attempting to restrict the energy production from coal-based power plants through a regulatory cap-and-trade scheme intended to limit the emissions from electricity plants. However, by a 6-3 vote the Supreme Court said today the Clean Air Act does not give the EPA broad authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from power plants. [pdf Ruling Here] The regulation -if any- must come from congress, not regulatory fiat from an executive agency.

New York Post – The Supreme Court rolled back the Environmental Protection Agency’s authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from power plants Thursday, dealing a massive blow to the Biden administration’s plans to fight climate change.

The 6-3 decision overturned a lower court ruling that gave the federal agency virtually unlimited regulatory powers through the Clean Air Act. […] Writing for the majority, Chief Justice John Roberts agreed with the states that “it is not plausible that Congress gave EPA the authority to adopt on its own such a regulatory scheme.”

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The U.S. Farm Bureau posts their calculated cost of the July 4th holiday food basket each year.  This year the Farm Bureau is estimating a cost of $69.68 for ten people, that is an increase of 17% from 2021. [DATA HERE]

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I’m not sure we could feed ten people for less than $70, but that’s the estimate from the Farm Bureau which aligns with the Consumer Price Index.  Full data below.

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There is a slow-motion buildup to a hot war with Russia happening.  The NATO and western alliance motive for the war is clear {Go Deep}.  The question is rapidly moving from “if” to “when.”

In this outline we will update on the troop and military movements and then explain why the war with Russia is becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.  In many ways this will be the “Climate Change War,” you will see why below.

First, the U.S. is moving troops from the 101st Airborne ‘screaming eagles’ into NATO allied countries on the western border of Ukraine.   This is the first deployment of the Army’s 101st Airborne Division from Fort Campbell, Kentucky, to Europe in 80 years.  As noted by base reporting, “Elements of 2nd Brigade Combat Team, and 101st Headquarters and Headquarters Battalion, 101st Airborne Division, have been assigned to carry out the mission.” [source]

“We’re going to check the Russian influence and we’re going to impact the Russians’ decision-making for probably the next 10-20 years,” said Col. John Lubas, deputy commanding officer for operations, 101st Airborne Division, in a pre-deployment briefing. “We’re going to do this with all our partners in NATO, the European Union and the West, and this is an incredibly important mission.” 

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Say what you will about Boris Johnson, but he does proffer pragmatic solutions to problems.

With a pending global food shortage only looking worse by the day British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has proposed to use biofuel farmland to grow food that can be consumed by people.

German Chancellor Olaf Schulz is also supporting the plan. However, Joe Biden and Justin Trudeau have denounced the effort to expand food production in the U.S. and Canada and blocked the framework from G7 policy.

WASHINGTON – […] Mr Johnson will address G7 leaders at a summit in Germany and ask them to repurpose land currently used for crop-based biofuels to grow more food.

The Prime Minister believes using less green fuel would dampen soaring food prices and help avert famines in poorer countries that rely heavily on Ukrainian grain blockaded in ports by Russia.

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Video has surfaced showing French President Emmanuel Macron informing Joe Biden that asking Saudi Arabia for more oil will not help the current situation and the global energy crisis Joe Biden has created.

The video is from an impromptu conversation at the G7 Summit in Germany.  After a minute, Biden’s National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan steps in and tells the group they need to go inside and have this conversation because the media can hear and see what they are discussing.  WATCH:

The larger issue comes down to a catastrophic energy agenda by Joe Biden made worse by U.S. foreign policy.  Biden has killed the U.S. oil and gas industry driving up the price of energy which is having horrific consequences as consumer prices skyrocket.  Simultaneous to this bad domestic energy policy, Biden has placed sanctions against Russian oil and gas with the backdrop of preexisting sanctions against Iran and Venezuela.

No oil/gas from Russia, no oil/gas from Iran, no oil/gas from Venezuela and now less oil/gas from the United States.  The western alliance is trying to push the climate change agenda while cutting off their own access to cheap energy supplies.   THIS is the primary source of what has been called “global inflation,” it is a self-inflicted wound against the citizens in the western nations.

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This is not some grand conspiracy, ‘out there‘ deep geopolitical possibility, or foreboding likelihood as an outcome of short-sighted western emotion.  No, this is just a predictable outcome from western created events that pushed specific countries to a natural conclusion based on their best interests.

You can debate the motives of the western leaders who structured the sanctions against Russia, and whether they knew the outcome would happen as a consequence of their effort, but the outcome was never really in doubt.  Personally, I believe this outcome is what the west intended. The people inside the World Economic Forum are not stupid – ideological, yes, but not stupid. They knew this global cleaving would happen.

In April the finance ministers of the BRICS alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) decided to create their own financial mechanisms to continue trade between nations of similar disposition despite Western/NATO sanctions {LINK}. Earlier this month Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated, “rapid changes are taking place in the global monetary system that may affect the international role of the dollar.”  {LINK} Additionally, as the proverbial ‘west’ follows the corporate instructions from the World Economic Forum, Powell expanded his points to note the creation of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) is also being reviewed. {LINK}

Following a recent meeting of the BRICS group, Iran (86 million people) and Argentina (46 million people) are now applying to join BRICS, possibly creating BRICS+

(Reuters) – Iran has submitted an application to become a member in the group of emerging economies known as the BRICS, an Iranian official said on Monday.

Iran’s membership in the BRICS group, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, “would result in added values for both sides,” Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson said.

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It is quite remarkable to consider that almost 100% of these global issues could immediately disappear if the far-left ideologues behind Joe Biden would just unleash the American energy sector.  Alas, the seemingly religious cult of climate ideology will not allow it…. therefore we get these bizarre outcomes.

The U.S. has economic sanctions against oil exports from Iran, Venezuela and now Russia.  The EU is economically collapsing under their inability to power their economies without energy products, a specific outcome of the latest NATO and EU sanctions against Russia.

The green energy programs in the EU cannot sustain the needs of the population.  As a result, German Chancellor Olaf Schultz and French President Emmanuel Macron are asking Joe Biden to lift sanctions against Iran and Venezuela and let Iranian and Venezuelan oil replace the missing Russian oil.  Again, none of this would be needed if the U.S. just developed more oil and gas domestically; but Biden won’t change policy.

(Reuters) – The international community should explore all options to alleviate a Russian squeeze of energy supplies that has spiked prices, including talks with producing nations like Iran and Venezuela, a French presidency official said on Monday.

Venezuela has been under U.S. oil sanctions since 2019, and could reroute crude if those restrictions were lifted.  Indirect talks between Iran and the United States to revive a nuclear deal that could see sanctions on Tehran lifted and its oil exports resume have been on hold since March, but are due to resume in Doha soon.

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Watch how this plays out in the global cleaving.  Watch closely…

The stresses of retaining climate ideology are beginning to surface in the EU and ‘western nations.’  The developing world needs fertilizer quickly, or their twice annual harvests will not produce enough to feed their population.  However, the EU does not want the developing world to create their own fertilizer because it would mean using an energy source the EU no longer supports.

The result within the G7, G20, World Economic Forum, multinational corporations and EU government, is a debate over whether it is better for people to starve, or to allow developing countries to manufacture fertilizer to feed themselves.   Some in the EU and western alliance say let the people die, climate is more important.  Others, seem to be saying if they allow mass starvation just to retain their climate ideology, they may lose influence in the world.  The debate rages on.

(Reuters) – The European Union is divided on how to help poorer nations fight a growing food crisis and address shortages of fertilizers caused by the war in Ukraine, with some fearing a plan to invest in plants in Africa would clash with EU green goals.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has prompted a global food crisis and fears of worse to come because of a drop in grain exports from Ukraine and a spike in prices of chemical fertilizers, of which Russia and Belarus are major producers.  [SD NOTE: This is false.  Russia’s invasion of Ukraine did not create a global food crisis, the Western Alliance & NATO sanctions did – Important distinction] 

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Western leaders, specifically including the G7, have a serious problem.  Their collective energy and economic policy, a chase for the climate change and corporate financial agenda, have created the downstream consequences of global food shortages and third-world instability.  The non-industrial nations will now, once again, suffer as a direct result of Western ideology and arrogance.

To combat the pesky third-world pitch forks, today Joe Biden announced the U.S. will lead the G7 in a series of advanced spending measures intended to control how the pain inflicted by the industrialized nations will surface to the rest of the world.   Western media must not let the suffering of the brown people become visible, lest people start to connect the dots and realize the G7 is an ideologically racist and exploitative enterprise.

To soften the reality of the brown people suffering, the leftist administration of Joe Biden will spend $200 billion to mitigate the damage.  There are four aspects:

(1) To increase dependency and control the third-world population the G7 will finance a vaccine manufacturing facility in Senegal.  The breeding of the brown people must be controlled – climate change policy demands it. 

(2) To control the optics of the third-world complaining about it, the G7 will mobilize $335 million in private capital to control the communication systems in Africa, Asia, and Latin America.  The brown people must not discover the nature of their exploitation; and the citizens within the G7 nations must not find out their government is exploiting the brown people. Wouldn’t look good.

(3) The United States will spend $50 million over five years to support gender equity in the developing world increasing the friction between brown women and brown men, while ignoring cultural differences and forcing the social ideology of the West upon them.  And finally…. 

(4) The G7, fearing third-world instability and anger from the brown people that could disrupt their supply chains, the U.S. and Western nations will now seek to increase their control of mining for mineral deposits needed for G7 batteries – and will fund more railroads and ports to export the critical material to the West more quickly. 

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