Hindsight is not only 20/20, in this case it’s a little alarming.
Last year, we were discussing the massive increases in food and farming costs associated with increased fertilizer prices. By the time we got to late January, the World Bank (WB), United Nations (UN) and the Davos / World Economic Forum (WEF) group were discussing it. At first the perspective was the potential for lower crop yields creating increased global famine.
However, if we apply a little hindsight from the geopolitical world surrounding the current issues in Europe, specifically Ukraine, and then consider the background of what the Biden team were doing, while Russia, Belarus and China were stockpiling, things look a little more concerning than just lower crop yields as an outcome of higher natural gas prices – vis-a-vis nitrogen fertilizer.
As noted by Forbes last month, “Russia and China have imposed export restrictions on fertilizer. Both are, or were, big exporters of plant food. The decline in exports makes getting the vital nutrients harder across the globe. China and Russia account for 29% of world exports for nitrogen-based plant food. The two countries also have significant, albeit, smaller shares of the phosphate and potash markets, respectively, the report states.”
Now, keep in mind how Belarus helped Russia with the current military operation.
In August of 2021 the United States, Canada and the EU hit Belarus with punitive sanctions on the one-year anniversary of what they called a fraudulent election. As noted by Politico at the time, “The sanctions partially ban imports of potash fertilizer, petrol and petrol-based products from Belarus.” […] Targeting Belarus’ potash sector was a strategic move insofar as the country is the second largest exporter of the fertilizer behind Canada, covering 21 percent of the world’s potash exports in 2019.
In September of 2021, at the same time as China was investing heavily in the purchase of U.S. farmland, Beijing simultaneously announced a ban of export for phosphates until June of 2022. With China banning export of the source material, the global fertilizer market now needed to look elsewhere for future purchases.
Toward the end of last year, we warned that fertilizer costs were going to harvest costs in 2022 (
“This is no small thing, to restore a republic after it has fallen into corruption. I have studied history for years and I cannot recall it ever happening. It may be that our task is impossible. Yet, if we do not try then how will we know it can’t be done? And if we do not try, it most certainly won’t be done. The Founders’ Republic, and the larger war for western civilization, will be lost.”
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy Name. Thy kingdom come. THY WILL BE DONE, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread. And forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but DELIVER US FROM EVIL.