The same people who told us to appreciate saving $0.16 on our July 4th BBQs last summer are now taking the official position there is no massive food inflation.  [DATA HERE]

Those skyrocketing prices you think you see at the grocery store are not real.  Those announcements of forecasted price increases by the food producers, well, those are not real either.  So sayeth the United States Dept of Agriculture (USDA).

In their update to the USDA pricing forecast and analysis dated January 25, 2022, the USDA claims: “2021 retail food price inflation continued at same pace as 2020 but varied among food categories.”  Oh, but it gets even more stupid:

“USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) researchers project that prices for food-at-home, or food purchased typically from grocery stores or other food stores, will increase between 1.5 and 2.5 percent in 2022, lower than the 3.5-percent increase that occurred in both 2020 and 2021. Forecasts for all food categories for 2022 are available in ERS’s monthly Food Price Outlook data product, updated January 25, 2022.” (link)

If there was ever an argument that every single institution in the U.S. government was corrupt, manipulative and ideologically bent, this claim by the USDA would be a case study in the supportive evidence.

Apparently, if you are to follow the outlook of the USDA – and reconcile their institutional hypocrisy, Joe Biden increased the rate of food stamp assistance by 25 percent for some unknown reason.  Because according to the Dept of Agriculture, “Retail food prices increased by a mere 3.5 percent in 2021, equal to the rate in 2020.”

3.5% ?

You just cannot make this up.

(more…)

Hopefully last year’s warning gave all enough time: …”By the time we get to Superbowl Sunday, the price of ¹chicken wings is going to bring sticker shock to those who have not prepared.” (link)

For those doing the math, that’s a 51.4% price increase in a year.

(Prior article)

(more…)

Last year, when CTH discussed the original Kraft-Heinz wholesale notification for January 2022, we warned it was only the first round.  The reason for waves of price increases is specifically, because each of the processed food categories is impacted differently depending on the amount of processing involved.  Each category is different.

This understanding is why we warned everyone in October of last year to make as much preparation as possible for waves of food inflation.  The original notification for contracted terms in 30, 60 and 90 days was +20%.  Meaning this month, on those group and sectors, prices to retailers went up by 20%, and you are seeing that in the supermarket now.

For the next wave, Kraft-Heinz is telling wholesalers the fulfillment shipments arriving in March will be up to +30% on the next categories.  Oscar Mayer proteins will be the biggest increase at the top end (+30%), Maxwell House coffee on the lower end (+5-10%) and the juice and drink category around +20%.  [A $5 beverage pack will cost $6 in a few short weeks.]

The processing sector is still dealing with cumulative cost increases.  The fulfillment terms are still catching up with the increased costs.  These announcements are ON TOP OF the current price increases we are feeling.  We are entering hyper-inflation.

If you look at the notification timing from Kraft foods, January 24th, you will see the categories we predicted to come next are the exact categories being outlined in this wave.

(more…)

CBS host Margaret Brennan is shocked, shocked, at the responses from her middle America panel when asked for an update on how their lives have been made better by the occupant of the White House.   Brennan tries to carry water for the Biden administration but fails miserably.

Curiously, and again feeding actual data that rises above the officially sponsored national propaganda, four of the six panelists are not vaccinated.  Three voted for Biden, and three are identified as Trump supporters.  However, all six panelists say their lives have gotten worse under Joe Biden.

All of the panelists agree their #1 issue is rising prices and the astronomical inflation that is hitting them hard.  Specifically, the out of control food prices are mentioned. All of the group also agree that Biden’s covid policy is a hot mess of conflicting gibberish that doesn’t make sense, and the spending on masks and home tests is ridiculous and of no value.

It is an interesting discussion to watch.

(more…)

It has only just begun.

Effective today, all U.S. and Canadian cross-border truckers must show their vaccination passport in order to deliver their loads.  Approximately 15% of Canadian truckers and approximately 50% of U.S. truckers are not vaccinated.   The logistics and distribution of food supplies into and out of Canada are collapsing.

Pay attention to the scale of impact in this example.  It will only take a few days for this to go from a problem to a full-blown crisis of epic proportions.

CALGARY –  “For the product to be right there and not being able to touch it, we’ve never seen it before in the 12 years that we’ve been open,” he said. “The U.S. is full of product, and we just can’t get it up here.”

The produce warehouse in Northeast Calgary routinely received two or three trucks a day to restock their shelves. Now, when they are attempting to import 80 to 90 per cent of their stock from the U.S., they are lucky to get one truck every two or three days.

(more…)

For those of you who have prepared it is wise to remember the advice that always accompanies the final stages of preparation.  Once you are prepared, shut up, zip it, run silent and run deep.

The reason is simple comrades, when the “voluntary rationing” phase concludes, those who have prepared are quickly cast as ‘hoarders” and targeted by those who created the desperation.  It has always been thus.

DC Mayor and COVID Compliance Minister, Muriel Bowser, asks residents in/around her region to enter a phase of voluntary rationing.  What comes after the voluntary phase is the part many have been studiously preparing to avoid.

In the bigger picture… I find it rather revealing that only when leftist policies are followed to their natural conclusion do you see officials in the leftist economic system they created, a system not coincidentally always based on the outcome of scarcity, asking people not to engage in economic activity.

Chasing socialism always creates an outcome where the expressed intent from government is NOT to buy stuff, rationing.  Socialism, or leftism in its modern form, always creates scarcity; it is the diametrically opposite outcome of a free capitalistic society.

It’s easy to ignore the United Nations and World Bank pontificators as Über-leftists and global climate change fanatics.  However, of value to us ordinary peeps, is a recognition that U.N and WB outlooks permeate the World Economic Forum and Davos groups.

The multinational corporations and quasi-governmental entities in/around the World Economic Forum (WEF) are the people who call themselves “elites” and shape global policy.  As a result, when the U.N. and Word Bank start talking about widespread global famine as a result of energy policy impacts to the farming industry, specifically natural gas costs and fertilizer resulting in lower crop yields, it is worth paying attention.

We have already discussed the U.S. impact from higher fertilizer costs HERE.   As a nation we are blessed and fortunate to be living on land that is naturally healthy and fertile enough to grow food in abundance.   However, if our crop yields drop our export ability diminishes.  The world relies on the U.S. as a food basket.  You might have recently heard about foreign countries buying up U.S. farmland? Well….

In this outline from the Wall Street Journal, they note those increased costs mean less crops in all continents especially the third world regions.  That can be catastrophic for nations that already have food insecurity issues.

(Via Wall Street Journal) Christina Ribeiro do Valle, who comes from a long line of coffee growers in Brazil, is this year paying three times what she paid last year for the fertilizer she needs. Coupled with a recent drought that hit her crop hard, it means Ms. do Valle, 75, will produce a fraction of her Ribeiro do Valle brand of coffee, some of which is exported.

There is also a shortage of fertilizer. “This year, you pay, then put your name on a waiting list, and the supplier delivers it when he has it,” she said.

(more…)

The business section of the Toronto Star has an appropriate albeit ominous headline for Canadians today:

“Brace for impact: Our supply chain is about to take a further hit, and we’ll all feel it“

The news couldn’t come at a worse time considering that Canada is feeling the biggest increase in food inflation in the past 30 years.  Yeah, for American’s it is a bad situation, but for those north of the border it’s even worse.

The truckers north of the border are planning a major protest to draw the attention of Canadian citizens who continue to keep their head buried. #TruckersForFreedom.   What they are trying to avoid, is soon to be unavoidable.

(MSM, CANADA) – In Canada, where as much as 90% of the country’s fruits and vegetables come from the US during the winter, a vaccine mandate for truckers is slowing down food shipments. Drivers who aren’t fully vaccinated against covid-19 have to quarantine for two weeks after entering Canada. Just about half of US truckers are vaccinated, according to industry estimates.

(more…)

The U.S. Dept of Labor has released the unemployment claim data [DATA HERE], and the results show claims of 286,000 last week: an increase of 55,000 from prior week and the third consecutive week of increased claims.

As we have continued to point out from data, in part due to the vaccine mandate, and in part due to the underlying economic issues created by the Biden administration, the working class economy has bifurcated and cleaved.   The trendline is negative.

Ask yourself, where are these current claimants going to gain future jobs when the inflationary pressure is contracting consumer demand?

WASHINGTON (AP) — The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits rose to the highest level in three months as the fast-spreading omicron variant disrupted the job market.

Jobless claims rose for the third straight week — by 55,000 to 286,000, highest since mid-October, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The four-week average of claims, which smooths out weekly volatility, rose by 20,000 to 231,000, highest since late November.

(more…)

Proctor and Gamble makes a variety of familiar products under various brand names.  As we noted last October, we were awaiting details on a predictable next wave of retail price increases for products in the chemical and household cleaner segment.

Today, P&G announced an average price increase to retailers of 8% on their laundry products (Tide, Gain, etc.) effective with the next fulfillment of supplier purchase orders.  On the liquid detergents, that’s an average increase well over $1 per bottle…. YIKES.

(VIA CNN Business) – It’s going to cost you more to wash your clothes. Procter & Gamble (PG) said Wednesday that it was raising prices by an average of about 8% on retail customers next month for its Tide and Gain laundry detergents, Downy fabric softener and Bounce dryer sheets.

[…] “Transportation and labor markets remain tight. Availability of materials remain stretched,” P&G CEO Jon Moeller said on an analyst call Wednesday. “In some categories and in some markets, inflationary pressures are broad-based with little sign of near-term relief.” P&G makes many of the most recognizable brands in US homes, such as Gillette, Charmin, Bounty, Pampers and Crest.

(more…)