The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) provides the May jobs report.  Top line job gains were moderate at 75,000 and the unemployment rate holds steady at 3.6%.  However wage growth of 3.1%, and a monthly shift of 299,000 jobs from part-time to full-time reflects tight labor market in specific Main Street (blue and white collar) jobs.
The overall gain of 75,000 for May is low considering the economic growth. However, a review of the underlying data tells a story of a tightened labor pool; specifically inside the Main Street, middle-class, blue and white collar labor market.  [Table B-1]

Overall wage growth of 3.1% is very strong, and driven primarily by increased wages in “non-supervisory” payroll; ie. the actual workers (non mgmt). May was the 10th straight month with annual wage gains of at least 3 percent. Wages for non-supervisory workers continue to rise at a faster rate of 3.4 percent.
With inflation remaining low (1.4%); and assuming inflation is unchanged in May; the 3.4% non-supervisory wage growth, at current wage rates, is equivalent to nearly $900 per year in real wage growth for a blue-collar worker at 40 hours per week. [Table B-8]
We see the second large indicator of a tight Main Street labor market in the shift from part-time to full-time employment:
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During brief press remarks following a USMCA speech in Pennsylvania, Vice President Mike Pence outlined the current status of “talks” between the U.S. and Mexican officials.
The vice-president affirms several times that President Trump is “firm in his position” to see Mexico step-up and do more to stop the mass migration of illegal aliens from Central America.  If you think about it, against the context of the USMCA, the Trump position to confront Mexico is absolutely the right approach.
Mexico wants the USMCA trade agreement, and they want to be united with the U.S. and Canada on trade and collaborative economic benefits.  However, simultaneously Mexico has repeatedly said it will not join the “Safe Third Country” agreement held by the United States and Canada, where asylum seekers must apply for refuge in whichever country they first arrive in, as each is considered safe.

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[It’s worth noting that Pence is likely under a lot of pressure from Tom Donohue and his friends within the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Pence deserves credit for standing up to his traditional tribe.]
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When President Trump began confronting China on trade practices, there was always a likely totalitarian Chinese response. The inevitable response when confronting the duplicitous dragon is always an attack; it’s the only way Beijing knows how to respond.

Last week Beijing threatened to take action against any corporation who would be perceived as working against the interests of the state.  This week communist Beijing begins doing exactly that:

(SCMP) China’s antitrust regulator slapped a US$23.6 million fine on Ford Motor Company’s Chinese venture for restricting sales prices in its hometown, taking the second such action against US carmakers in three years as trade tensions deteriorated between the world’s two largest economies.

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According to recent reporting, officials representing the U.S. and Mexico have failed to reach an agreement on measures to stop the flood of migrants traveling through Mexico.  As a result of the scale of the crisis, and without an agreement from Mexico to stop the worsening problem, President Trump has announced tariffs on imported goods from Mexico will start June 10th.
A hastily called press conference by Mexican officials is pending.  Livestream Link

Predictably Mexican President Lopez-Obrador is unwilling to stop the migration from Central America.  There are strong indications the Mexican government does not control the border region as Mexican drug cartels are in charge.
Last month U.S. Customs and Border Patrol report 144,278 people were apprehended attempting to cross the U.S. southern border in May alone.  The region is in crisis.
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…“It must be remembered that there is nothing more difficult to plan, more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to manage than a new system. For the initiator has the enmity of all who would profit by the preservation of the old institution and merely lukewarm defenders in those who gain by the new ones.” 

~ Niccolò Machiavelli

CTH has been fully immersed in the battle against the Chamber of Commerce Decepticons for so long we have to be careful of our language.  This battle is the heart of Wall Street’s war against MAGA Main Street.
Republican senators from Mitch McConnell’s ‘decepticon caucus’ are now warning President Trump they will fully engage in an open effort to stop him from confronting the corrupt corporate systems that finance their life of indulgence.  Tariff’s on Mexico are a bridge too far for Tom Donohue and the multinational Wall Street lobbying system.  The republicans who benefit from K-Street lobbyist payments are now on full display.

Senate Leader Mitch McConnell has one major career alliance that has been unbroken and unchanged for well over two decades.  That alliance is with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and specifically with CoC President Tom Donohue.  [SEE HERE and SEE HERE].
However, decepticon senator John Kennedy (U-LA) has personally spoken to Trump and outlines the president will not back down in the face of their threats:

“He’s as serious as four heart attacks and a stroke,” Kennedy told reporters at the Capitol. “A 5% tariff isn’t going to break the bank. A 25% tariff is a different story, but we are a long way from there.” (link)

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The hypocrisy and ideology of the Mexican position would indicate the tariffs are certain to take place.  Factually, after Mexico has made their “red line” position clear, one could argue there’s no reason to go through the graduated timeline; the U.S. might as well just start applying the full 25% tariff amount on June 10th.

WASHINGTON/MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Mexico said on Monday it would reject a U.S. idea to take in all Central American asylum seekers if it is raised at talks this week with the Trump administration, which has threatened to impose tariffs if Mexico does not crack down on illegal immigration.
[…] Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard said the country was committed to continuing to work to keep migrants from Central America from reaching the U.S. border.

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As Wall Street’s Big Club politicians go bananas over the pending tariffs on Mexico, House Judiciary Committee ranking member Doug Collins appears on Fox morning to discuss his own visit to the border, the growing crisis and the political intransigence in DC.

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Vice-President Mike Pence traveled to Canada today as an emissary of the Trump administration to support Canadian passage of the USMCA trade agreement.
According to Reuters media reports the vice-president was focused on the importance of a strong North American economic alliance, and how a united tri-lateral agreement can form a geopolitical hedge against influence from communist China and socialist ideologies in Cuba and Venezuela. Justin from Canada expressed his perspectives over diminished women’s rights, U.S. abortion laws, the important contributions of a transgender workforce, climate change and the NBA championship playoffs…. Yes, really:

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Meanwhile in Mexico: “The Senate, controlled by Lopez Obrador’s National Regeneration Movement (MORENA) and its allies, should approve the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) once it has passed through congressional committee, the president said.” (link)
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Today is a very good day.  Despite the professional punditry and their doomsayer predictions of Trump tariffs driving up costs for consumers, exactly the opposite is happening.
Despite large growth in the Main Street USA economy; and despite large wage gains by U.S. blue-collar workers; inflation remains low and mysteriously detached from the Fed monetary policy.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. inflation was much weaker than initially thought in the first quarter amid a sharp slowdown in domestic demand, which could cast doubts on the Federal Reserve’s view that the benign price pressures were largely because of temporary factors.
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding the volatile food and energy components increased at a 1.0% rate last quarter, the government said. The so-called core PCE price index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, was previously reported to have risen at a 1.3% pace.
The increase last quarter was the smallest in four years and pushed inflation further below the Fed’s 2% target. (read more)

They just don’t get it.  For over three years CTH has been explaining how President Trump’s maganomic policy will reverse three decades of stagnant Main Street economic growth.  Today the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) once again confirms our earlier predictions, and releases the data showing inflation is essentially nonexistent.
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Despite the professional doomsayer predictions from the professional financial class of Wall Street investment punditry, Main Street is upbeat and consumer confidence is strong.

Tariff-Man Winning

“Consumer Confidence posted another gain in May and is now back to levels seen last Fall when the Index was hovering near 18-year highs,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The increase in the Present Situation Index was driven primarily by employment gains.
Consumers expect the economy to continue growing at a solid pace in the short-term, and despite weak retail sales in April, these high levels of confidence suggest no significant pullback in consumer spending in the months ahead.” (more)

Never is the disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street more visible than in the predictions -vs- reality for the growing/strengthening American middle-class.
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