As you know CTH takes a different approach at significant world events. We try to share the untold stories as they shake out, in real time, in granular details not noted by the MSM.  We discuss the stuff on the way to the destination.  That way when we arrive at a ‘way point’ we have a historic reference, a back-story, to comprehend consequential headlines when they happen.
With that in mind, here’s another non-discussed granular detail, spotted recently, building toward a much more significant geopolitical outcome, vis-a-vis Russia.
You might remember on August 4th President Trump and French President Emmanuel had a phone call.  The outline of the phone conversation is HERE, but there was no real reason for them to be chatting…. or was there?
Western media has paid virtually no attention to how Trump’s big picture economic policy enmeshes and bolsters his national security policy.
Quite literally, and I really want to emphasize this, Secretary Mnuchin (Treasury) and Secretary Ross (Commerce) are just as important as Secretary Mattis (Defense) and Secretary Tillerson (State).
Stop and think about that for a minute.
When President Trump went to Saudi Arabia for the Arab Security Summit the two most visibly active cabinet members were Mnuchin and Ross.  When has a Treasury Secretary and Commerce Secretary ever had as much importance during world security events?
Think about it.
Who was Obama’s Commerce Secretary during Iran negotiations?
(more…)

– “Walking in a Winner Wonderland” –

Two years ago CTH began discussing the ramifications to a new emphasis on the economy outlined as a possibility of candidate Donald Trump’s economic policy outlook. Within the overall discussion we walked through the anticipated changes possible if A.) Trump won the election, and B.) Trump began instituting Main Street economic policy ahead of Wall Street policy (the past 20+ years).
We discussed the new dimension that would occur between two economic engines (Main Street -vs- Wall Street) as three decades of federal policy shifted. CTH outlined anticipated economic activity in the space between the two dynamics.

Part of those discussions focused on energy costs (we see them lowering), product costs (we explained how inflation would be weird), and importantly, wage rates. It takes several months of policy emphasis, actual outcomes, before the labor market wage rates would grow. We anticipated seeing that impact in Q1 of Fiscal Year 2018, which is October 1st 2017.
Today the Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey, “JOLTS report”, begins to show the initial stages of that wage rate increasing trend. The job market has tightened,… considerably. *Note* We are ending fiscal year Q4 (July, Aug, Sept.) and the trend within MAGAnomics is responding according to predictions. For those of us who argued these policy theories for the past two decades, these results are really cool.
(more…)

Nuance is important as tensions are very high.

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is attending the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) conference in Manila, Philippines. The primary topic on everyone’s mind is North Korea and the economic sanctions agreed upon yesterday as conveyed in the unanimous U.N. Security Council resolution.

Specifically, all conference participants are familiar with the (generally non-discussed) historic activity of China where they agree to sanctions then become willfully blind to violations of those sanctions; and essentially enable the DPRK to increase hostility.
During this visit U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is delivering a very severe message that U.S. President Donald Trump is well aware of all historic behavior, and President Trump is not going to allow willful blindness.  It is a new era in economic consequence.
The ASEAN audiences at the conference appear accepting of the first-hand message and welcoming a new understanding that President Trump is not going to allow status quo. Here’s the play-by-play as captured by AP during the early part of the conference.
(more…)

President Trump’s strategic approach using economic leverage to gain U.S. national security has established a very rare victory in the U.N. with unanimous support for Security Council sanctions against North Korea.  Yes, China and Russia supported.
Remember, from Day #1 of his administration President Trump was faced with a threat from N-Korea.  On his departure President Obama told the incoming new President Trump that North Korea would be his #1 Geopolitical national security challenge.
The MSM will likely never give President Trump credit for the remarkable long-term economic strategy he deployed to gain China and Russia’s support today.

UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) – The United Nations Security Council imposed new sanctions on North Korea on Saturday that could slash by a third the Asian state’s $3 billion annual export revenue over Pyongyang’s two intercontinental ballistic missile tests in July.

The U.S.-drafted resolution bans North Korean exports of coal, iron, iron ore, lead, lead ore and seafood. It also prohibits countries from increasing the current numbers of North Korean laborers working abroad, bans new joint ventures with North Korea and any new investment in current joint ventures.

(more…)

U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley is structuring a U.N. Security Council resolution toward North Korea by targeting a ban on DPRK exports.  This approach is in line with the larger Trump strategy to leverage economic sanctions as pressure on North Korea to stop advancing military expansion and nuclear weapons.
However, how President Trump has set Nikki Haley up for success on this resolution is something for the history books to write about:

♦First: A review of the possible enhanced sanctions against N-Korea should be incorporated with the larger issue of policy toward the DPRK’s enabler, China.  President Trump, Secretary Mnuchin and Secretary Ross have positioned a severely consequential trade reset between the U.S. and China.  [Trump and Ross delayed an announcement on trade sanctions against China which was scheduled for today.]
♦Second: The enhanced U.S. energy export initiatives, in conjunction with lower oil prices, an outcome of U.S. energy policy and a mutually beneficial relationship between President Trump and Arab states in the GCC, have severely weakened the economic position of Russia.
Russia’s energy export economy is dependent on energy prices remaining high. President Trump has brilliantly worked the geopolitical economic relationships to leverage influence over a large portion of the Russian economy.
Combine these two points and you discover the leverage President Trump’s team has created.
(more…)

The U.S. economy added 209,000 jobs in July exceeding expectations and forecasts by over 25,000.  The measured unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%.  The number of employed Americans hit 153.5 million, the highest since February 2009.  Year-over-year measures of wage rates remained at 2.5%; however, additional private sector jobs analysis shows wage rate growth substantially higher than fed measures.

Media economists say: “It’s difficult to find anything really negative in the report.” But they sure are trying…

(Via CNBC)  The U.S. economy continued a strong summer, adding 209,000 jobs in July while the unemployment rate fell to 4.3 percent, the lowest since March 2001, according to a government report Friday.

(more…)

“The Trump administration believes in free and fair trade and will use every available tool to counter the protectionism of those who pledge allegiance to free trade while violating its core principles. The U.S. is working to restore a level playing field, and under President Trump’s leadership, we will do so. This is a true free-trade agenda.”

[Free-Trade is a Two-Way Street – By Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross – Wall Street Journal, August 1, 2017]
The Trump administration last week celebrated the workers and businesses that make this country great. The purpose of “Made in America Week” was to recognize that, when given a fair chance to compete, Americans can make and sell some of the best, most innovative products in the world.
Unfortunately, many governments across the globe have pursued policies that put American workers and businesses at a disadvantage. For these governments, President Trump and his administration have a clear message: It is time to rebalance your trade policies so that they are fair, free and reciprocal.
(more…)

Earlier today President Donald Trump joined Director of Small Business Administration Linda McMahon and Ivanka Trump for an event discussing administration policy toward supporting U.S. small businesses.

Don’t focus on the waves, look closely at the tide.

You wouldn’t know if you just paid attention to the MSM presentations on developments in China, however internally China has already made the shift from Panda to Red Dragon. Over the past twenty years China has climbed economically driven mostly by massive internal manufacturing bolstered by strong central authority controls over their growth.
The Communist Party of China (CPC) is rarely discussed within most media conversations about China’s economic strength. However, in the face of a U.S. President who is no longer going to enable an erosion of America’s economy, President Trump’s trade policies become a risk to the objectives of Xi Jinping.
Big Panda drops the mask and shows the Red Dragon beneath the surface.
The exhibition of China’s military during a parade last weekend, and the words from China’s President Xi Jinping in combination with their facilitation of N-Korea’s aggression, reflect an increasingly obvious outlook China is preparing for conflict; and the Communist Party of China is rallying the Chinese people with a call for economic patriotism.

CHINA – […] The CPC undertakes noble responsibilities to ensure China’s peace and development, and enable people to realize their dreams. The ambitious responsibilities will be better identified when viewed in a historical context.
The CPC, Chinese government and the military should take on their responsibilities. National cohesion is critical for the people’s wellbeing and country’s competitiveness, yet opposing voices often find favor in diverse public opinions. Hence, having a firm leader is crucial for a power’s comprehensive national strength.

(more…)

Many people don’t call President Trump the Tea Party President for nothing.  For the first time in our lifetime President Trump’s fiscal policies, targeting growth in the economy, actually have the cumulative effect of lowering the national debt as measured by the U.S. Treasury.   –SEE DATA HERE–
When President Trump took office January 20th the total national debt was $19,947,304,555,212, or nearly $20 trillion.  While there are fluctuating cycles of increase and decrease the debt reached a high of $19,959,593,604,841 on February 28, 2017, stalled, and since March 14th 2017 continually dropped:

Total U.S. National Debt has now decreased by over $100 billion.  *Note: That’s five times more than is needed to build the Southern Security and Border Wall.
And yes, this decrease is real and represents a long term reversal. During same 6 months in 2016 the U.S. National Debt grew by $450 billion (from $18,941,406,899,252.15 -to- $19,391,704,027,667.12).   [DATA HERE] The Trump trend is not connected to a temporary lowering of debt during tax collection season.  The ACTUAL ‘federal’ debt clock is now running backwards.
(more…)