The efforts of the Wall Street pundits and financial class to talk the American consumer into creating a recession is failing. The Consumer Confidence Index remains at historic highs as U.S. workers/consumers are confident in their economic position. Yes, Main Street USA is optimistic about current and future expectations.

The Consumer Assessment Index, a measure of the percentage of consumers claiming business conditions are “good”, increased from 39.9 percent to 42.0; and the Present Situation Index is now at its highest level in nearly 19 years (Nov. 2000, 179.7).
These are all key indicators because the U.S. consumer is the engine of our economy.  The U.S. consumer generates over two-thirds of our GDP activity through purchases.  One of the strengths of the U.S. economy is our internal self-sufficiency; approximately 80 percent of all consumer goods created in the U.S. are purchased in the U.S. by U.S. consumers [we are not reliant on exports to sustain growth].
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National Economic Council Chairman Larry Kudlow appeared on Fox Business today to discuss the current state of the economy.  Mr. Kudlow was questioned about several media reports surrounding discussions of new tax cuts, tax rate modifications and tax policy.
Additionally, Kudkow updates the latest position on the U.S-China trade discussion.

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Last Friday President Trump had dinner with Tim Cook, aka “Tim Apple.”

The dinner came on the heels of USTR Lighthizer announcing a postponement of “next step” 10 percent tariffs against Chinese manufactured products…  Interestingly, the one of the product groups within the delay is personal computers…. Interestingly, Tim Apple was going to launch production assembly of the Macintosh personal computer in China.
Now, consider this:

CHINA – When ground was broken in March 2017 for a new US$9 billion factory owned by a subsidiary of Foxconn Group, the event was witnessed by then Guangdong party secretary Hu Chunhua and Terry Gou Tai-ming, the Taiwanese billionaire who created Foxconn, the world’s largest assembler of Apple’s iPhones and tablets.

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The White House has announced the Trump administration will enforce long-standing immigration laws that require entrants to be economically self-sufficient and limits public welfare benefits.   An entry alien who is -or becomes- dependent on public welfare assistance, is known as a “public charge”.   Aliens will be barred from entering the United States if they are deemed likely to become public charges, or welfare dependent.
These immigration rules have been in place for over 100 years, and generally were strictly enforced until the last 25 years.  The Trump administration is re-enforcing the rules.

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The enforcement action will have a direct bearing on the current immigration process as most border arrivals are economic migrants manipulating asylum claims.  Immigration based on self-sufficiency has been U.S. law for generations.
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The Bureau of Labor Statistics has presented the data for second quarter (Q2) year-over-year wage growth.  Average weekly wage growth is 3.7% year-over-year.

[Source, BLS release Q2 – Table 2]

With inflation (CPI) averaging 1.8% over the same period this means wages are strongly outpacing inflation and increasing the disposable income of U.S. workers.  This data-set, combined with positive consumer sentiment on job and economic security, bolsters the recent report showing “unanticipated” strength in retail sales.
The data is a reflection of Main Street strength. The job market is hot; wages are rising (3.7%) much faster than inflation (1.8%); the middle class has more disposable income. Hence, retail sales growth is strong at 3.8 percent.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell appears on Fox Business News with Maria Bartiromo to discuss President Trump, the Democratic Party’s shift to the left, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s comments, the budget battle, China trade tensions and issues with Iran.

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Apparently the rumors of our economic demise were greatly exaggerated.  Yes, amid the gnashing teeth of the Wall Street pundits hoping for another lucrative Fed rate decrease, the Main Street economy continues to defy expectations:

“Today’s jobs report shows the U.S. economy continues to create jobs at a strong pace even as we enter the longest period of economic expansion on record.” ~Tony Bedikian, Citizens Bank.

According to the BLS Report – June saw 224,000 jobs added; and importantly the private sector wage growth knocks a very solid +3.2% year-over-year. [Table B-8]  You might remember in the May 2019 jobs report 299,000 people moved from Part-Time to Full-Time employment.  In today’s report total payrolls added another 224,000 workers.

These are stunningly numbers.  The 224k new jobs this month is higher than same month last year (2018).  The Main Street economy is continuing to expand.  Private sector growth in wages continues to run above 3% for the 11th straight month.   Wage Growth is a critical driver because over inflation is around 1.3%. Wage growth is more than double inflation.
Key Point: Economic numbers, statistics, are subject to narrative engineering.  Those pushing a negative economic narrative are Wall Street pundits.  Wall St. has a self-interest to push negative economic news to get lower interest rates.  Lower interest rates means cheap money and a higher stock market.
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The latest set of statistics from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) shows all of the professional pundit claims of higher prices on imported goods due to Trump tariffs are simply disconnected from reality.  In actuality the year-over-year prices of import products are actually dropping:

U.S. Import prices fell 0.3 percent in May, the first monthly decline since a 1.4-percent drop in December. Import prices advanced 1.8 percent from December to April before the downturn in May. The price index for overall imports decreased 1.5 percent over the past 12 months, matching the drop in January. These were the largest over-the-year declines since the index fell 2.2 percent in August 2016. (See table 1.)

The U.S steel and aluminum tariffs have been in effect globally since 2017. Tariffs on softwood lumber (Canada) & durable appliances (S. Korea), same duration.  Additionally the first set of tariffs on China is now well over a year old; and the second set of expanded tariffs on China began a month ago; again, no material impact to the delivered price.
Despite two years of claims by the professional media that tariffs would lead to higher prices for U.S. consumers, as you can see above the reality is quite different.
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UPDATE: U.S-Mexico Joint Statement Added at bottom:
President Trump tweets that a signed deal has been reached between the U.S. and Mexico to stop the unlawful Central American migration that has created a crisis at the border:

According to the president details will come from Secretary of State Mike Pompeo who, along with VP Mike Pence and Secretary Wilbur Ross, was central to the U.S. negotiating team.
The Mexican government of Lopez-Obrador was desperate to reach an agreement as U.S. companies had already begun rapid supply chain preparation to avoid the tariffs scheduled to begin on Monday. Think about the scale of international investment into Mexico, done with the sole purpose of gaining access to the U.S. market.
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AMLO knows there is no way for Mexico to begin retaliating against the U.S. after President Trump demanded they step-up migration travel enforcement or face U.S. tariffs on Mexican imports.  There’s no way for Mexico to take on Trump economically; and they would be foolish to try…  All business interests in Mexico will take a financial hit as soon as the stock market opens tomorrow: [Tweet Link]
No doubt Mexican Foreign Minister Jesus Seade will reach out to Jared Kushner for relief/assistance; but don’t look for President Trump to change on this issue until he sees substantive actions taking place.  Trump knows AMLO has a tendency to play political games with immigration; he’s made hollow promises before; and now Jesus Seade is in a very tenuous position.

(Reuters) […] The announcement rattled investors who feared that worsening trade frictions could hurt the global economy. The Mexican peso, U.S. stock index futures and Asian stock markets tumbled on the news, including the shares of Japanese automakers who ship cars from Mexico to the United States.

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