MAGAnomics – June Retail Sales Show Strong, Confident, Consumer Spending Increases…

The Commerce Department has released the first advanced estimate of retail sales and consumer spending for June. Core retail sales increased 0.7 percent last month (very strong), and 3.8 percent year-over-year; very strong retail sales.

Retail sales is an important component to the U.S. economy as more than two-thirds of our GDP is based from retail sales. In essence, one of the unique attributes to the U.S. economy is that we buy lots of stuff. Actually, the U.S. consumer buys almost three-quarters of everything produced. We are -for the most part- self-sustaining; we do not necessarily need to depend on exports. When the U.S. consumer is buying stuff the internal economy is strong.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in June, pointing to strong consumer spending, which could help to blunt some of the drag on the economy from weak business investment.

[…] Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales edging up 0.1% in June. Compared to June last year, retail sales advanced 3.4%.

Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales jumped 0.7% last month after an upwardly revised 0.6% increase in May. These so-called core retail sales, which correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product, were previously reported to have increased 0.4% in May.

June’s strong gain in core retail sales followed solid increases in April and May, suggesting consumer spending accelerated in the second quarter after rising at its slowest pace in a year in the January-March period. (read more)

[Source Data – Table 2; Commerce Dept.]

The data is a reflection of Main Street strength.  The job market is hot; wages are rising much faster than inflation; the middle class has more disposable income.  Hence, retail sales are strong.

President Trump is continuing to emphasize and incentivize corporate manufacturers to return to producing products inside the U.S.  The American market is the gold-standard for consumer goods.  Companies that make stuff need access to their best customer, that’s the U.S. market.

For 30+ years, U.S. policy was driven by Wall Street influence who wanted to exploit the purchasing power of the U.S. economy by manufacturing for lower production costs overseas, thereby increasing overall profit.  However, that process meant the U.S. lost the manufacturing jobs as the stuff we buy was no longer made domestically.

President Trump has put incentives in place to make moving production back into the U.S. the best bet (carrot), and is simultaneously putting pressure on the backside of the import equation through tariffs (the stick).  This is the essential fight between Wall Street (multinational corps) and Main Street (Trump).

The Wall Street multinationals want unfettered access to the U.S. market, but they don’t want their products made in the U.S. because -according to them- it will cost more and lower their profits. To try and avoid Trump’s dynamic, China is actually dropping the price of their products even further through subsides, incentives and currency devaluing.

As all the multinationals fight to try and keep their manufacturing overseas, the prices of their imported products continue to drop (.09 percent in June) massively.  In essence, in a very weird dynamic, we are importing deflation.

We are importing lower prices, U.S. consumers are seeing lower prices, because the corporations are trying to keep making stuff overseas.   Ironically, this means despite Trump smacking tariffs on China the U.S. consumer is getting a better price on imported finished goods.  Ergo, retail sales strong etc.

However, in the longer term, the Total Cost of Production (TCP) is constantly being re-evaluated.  Low energy prices in the U.S, access to raw materials, shipping costs and rising wages overseas means the TCP gap has massively narrowed.

Trump’s Main Street USA policies have lowered the cost of manufacturing in the United States; there are no longer huge production saving overseas; it just doesn’t make as big a difference as it used to.   This TCP narrowing now means when President Trump applies tariffs the impact carries more weight…. That’s why Trump enjoys being “Tariff Man”.

As more companies return and make their stuff here, the GDP of the U.S.A. expands massively [imports are deductions from GDP].   This is why President Trump see’s no upper limit to the amount of potential GDP growth.

If the multinationals return production to the U.S. and the American consumer is purchasing the product, all of the economic value -the entire dynamic- stays inside the U.S.A.

Trump policies mean we are not dividing a limited pie, we are creating more pies.

Ultimately, this dynamic is why the USMCA trade agreement is so important.  On the geopolitical side we STOP giving money to our economic enemy, China; and while some companies will look to Mexico first -before the U.S.- we at least make North America the best bet for manufacturing investment and get that money out of China.

Mexico isn’t stupid, they can see the North American economic opportunity in the big picture.  That’s why Mexican trade negotiator Jesus Seade was so engaged with U.S. Trade Rep. Robert Lighthizer.  When President Trump warned Mexican President AMLO of tariffs on Mexican goods if he didn’t stop the migration issue, that threat carried much more weight than it would have a few years prior.

If the USMCA is ratified, it will crush the position of China and we can expect to see Trump completely disengage from trade negotiations with Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping.

However, China knows this massive problem exists… there are multi-trillions at stake… China is now aligned with Nancy Pelosi to remove President Trump (watch Dem bank accounts)…. that’s why Speaker Pelosi is dragging her feet on the USMCA.

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This entry was posted in China, Donald Trump, Economy, Election 2020, energy, President Trump, Trade Deal, Uncategorized, US dept of agriculture, US Treasury, USA, USMCA. Bookmark the permalink.

65 Responses to MAGAnomics – June Retail Sales Show Strong, Confident, Consumer Spending Increases…

  1. Sentient says:

    This booming economy is racist.

    Liked by 15 people

  2. Curious says:

    MAGAnomics! More winning.

    I hope this doesn’t cancel our fed funds rate cut!

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Marygrace Powers says:

    USA JUGGERNAUT JUST GETTING STARTED – TRUMP/PENCE 2020.

    Liked by 6 people

  4. dobbsfan says:

    MAGAnomics are my favorite articles to read here by Sundance!

    Liked by 7 people

  5. simplewins says:

    MAGA
    I know I am personally having a good year.

    Liked by 2 people

    • wwwrobotC says:

      God bless our stable genius President

      Liked by 7 people

    • Dennis Leonard says:

      Sundance,
      I think Wilber should have separated retail from food in first tweet

      Sec. Wilbur Ross
      ‏Verified account @SecretaryRoss
      5h5 hours ago

      June retail and food sales rose a strong 0.4% showing that consumer spending, the cornerstone of the U.S. economy, is still powering the @RealDonaldTrump economy. https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf …”


      CEA
      ‏Verified account @WhiteHouseCEA
      5h5 hours ago

      Strong (0.7%) growth in the retail sales group together w/ upward revisions to the 2 prior months suggest quarter growth in real consumer spending of 3.7% at an annual rate. This pace is stronger than expected last month and stronger than the 2.7% growth during the past 4 Qs.”
      Same place says this,

      CEA
      ‏Verified account @WhiteHouseCEA

      Total #retail sales increased 0.4% in June, beating market expectations. @uscensusbureau”

      Like

  6. L4grasshopper says:

    “Retail sales is an important component to the U.S. economy as more than two-thirds of our GDP is based from retail sales.”
    ====
    So….does this mean we should expect a GDP number closer to 3% than to 2% for the last quarter?

    Liked by 1 person

  7. sundance says:

    POTUS: “But I’m not going to complain because, frankly, we would have done even better had we had a Federal Reserve that didn’t raise interest rates so quickly. And had we had a Federal Reserve – and there are many people on the Federal Reserve, you know…”

    “They did quantitative tightening, $50 billion a month, that’s a lot of money. Now they’re doing $25 billion a month. Whereas in Europe, they’re pumping money into Europe and they’re lowering rates. In China, they’re pumping money into their system and they’re lowering rates very substantially.”

    “In Europe, the rates are almost zero. And in China, they rates are whatever President Xi wants – he’s his own Fed. He’s the Federal Reserve. One man. He’s the Federal Reserve. He’s the president. He’s everything else. But unfortunately what they did was not appropriate. They are supposed to be buying farm products. Let’s see whether or not they do.”

    https://publicpool.kinja.com/subject-in-town-pool-report-12-potus-on-china-fed-e-1836417471

    Liked by 17 people

  8. fangdog says:

    As more Americans benefit from better quality USA goods, people of other Nations will increase their demand for higher quality USA manufactured goods. China will be less the “go to World store”. Made in USA rather than Made in China will have a “feel good” feeling to it.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Dutchman says:

      China, under CCP rule, can Not compete, on an equal footing with U.S.

      They produce lots of cheap crap. Its INHERENT in their system. They HAD to pull almost all manufacturing out of U.S., so that consumers had no choice, but to buy their cheap crap, because effectively thats all that was available.

      And yes, consumers the world over followed. So yes, as more manufacturing returns to U.S., amd consumers here and abroad begin to have a,real choice; cheap crap or more $ for quality, they will make billions of individual decisions; the market reacting.

      We can hopefully get back to a time when “made in U.S.A.” meant QUALITY, and China will wither until its people topple the CCP.

      Liked by 3 people

  9. TonyinLA says:

    But PDJT tweeted something about someone. That’s what we need to focus on.

    Liked by 2 people

  10. repsort says:

    And lemme guess, consumer debt up 5%?
    bet I’m close…

    Like

  11. Dutchman says:

    I am surprised that the economist ‘experts’all continue to tow the party line.
    They keep underestimating, predicting gloom, etc.
    You would think SOME of them would recognise by now that what they learned in school is WRONG, school themselves in MAGAnomics, and enjoy being RIGHT for a change.
    These articles cite “economists polled”, and the economists they are polling are WRONG.
    Gee, eventually you would think SOMEONE would figure it out!

    Liked by 3 people

    • Fangdog says:

      Imagine being a college student economics major . You spend all that money and years to get your degree in economics. Now you finally have your degree plus debt, but you rudely come to realize everything you been taught about economics is wrong……You have been scammed!!!

      Liked by 1 person

      • Dutchman says:

        Yeah, you THOUGHT you were interested in ‘economics’, but didn’t bother to evaluate the value, and usefulness of what you were buying, BEFORE signing on the dotted line.
        Maybe THAT was their ‘edumacation’ in economics.
        “First rule, evaluate the value BEFORE you buy! now, run along we have more sheep to shear, er,..edumacate”.
        I’m visualising some out of work graduate, all their gramed degrees on the wall, working part time for HR Block. Reviewing a clients info they say “Doh! I could have been a PLUMBER!”

        Liked by 1 person

        • SwampRatTerrier says:

          Did you know that many economics degrees (especially those in the Ivy League) DO NOT REQUIRE ANY FINANCIAL ACCOUNTING!?

          Financial Accounting is often called the “Language of Business!”

          No wonder Economics degrees are almost totally worthless. Duh!

          Liked by 1 person

          • Dutchman says:

            Probably have to take numerous “studies” coarses, tho,….
            Black studies
            Hispanic studies
            Womens studies
            Lesbian studies
            White priveledge studies

            Didn’t AOC have a degree in economics? Obviously worthless piece of paper,..a diploma.
            Unless you run out of Charmin.

            Liked by 2 people

        • There’s the beauty of President Trump’s actions to begin reporting … to student/parent buyers … the job-market opportunities and measured value of each area of study in higher education. 😂

          RE: National Council for the American Worker and the American Workforce Policy Advisory Board will

          • Propose a course of action for increasing transparency related to education and job-training to ensure all Americans can make informed decisions about their education choices and careers.

          https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/trump-administration-equipping-american-students-workers-skills-need-succeed/

          Like

    • bkrg2 says:

      Totally agree Dutch.
      I basically ignore all fake main stream news, including business articles.
      However, when I check my investments or get emails from Vanguard, etc. all I ever read is that the economy is going to collapse. Every month like clockwork its the same story about how businesses are slowing down, wages are stagnant, tariffs are crushing US consumers and businesses.
      I just laugh it off because I look at the reality in these monthly reports (yes the same reports that all the MSM idiots have access to). The sheer stupidity of the common sheeple to continue falling for their nonsense is just exhausting to watch/listen.

      Like

      • Dutchman says:

        And WHY would Vanguard, one of the biggies in operating 401k’s/IRA’s been downplaying the phenominal Trump economy?
        Is it cause they’re IDIOTS, and don’t undrrstand what he’s doing?
        Or, is it cause they understand EXACTLY what he is doing, and don’t LIKE it?
        I choose B

        Like

  12. Devil in the Blue Drapes says:

    So CSPAN cuts short POTUS cabinet meeting just as Kushner was delving into the admin merit based immigration plan and border protection.

    Gee CSPAN, I thought immigration was of the utmost importance. They probably had to cut to the Quad Broads Squad militant Resolution denouncing the racist in the WH.

    Note: Scott (under Ben Carson) gave a powerful talk on Opportunity Zones, where private/govt funding is allocated to bring business to inner cities, *sigh* if only DJT didn’t despise minorities.

    https://www.c-span.org/video/?462702-1/president-trump-continues-criticism-minority-democratic-lawmakers

    Like

  13. ALEX says:

    I occasionally check in on the main ports in California that handle almost all of the China imports. Rather interesting the numbers are down after some explosive numbers last year.

    https://gcaptain.com/june-imports-down-at-top-us-hub-for-china-trade/

    LOS ANGELES, July 11 (Reuters) – The Los Angeles and Long Beach port complex, the nation’s busiest and the No. 1 for ocean trade with China, – handled 5.1%fewer inbound containers of cargo in June.

    Imports to the smaller Port of Long Beach dropped 13.7% from June 2018, more than offsetting the 3.5% gain at the Port of Los Angeles, which processed 396,306.5 20-foot equivalent units, a standardized maritime measurement for counting cargo containers.

    June was the second month of import declines at the sprawling facility, which is in the midst of what is typically the peak season for inbound shipments of goods earmarked for winter holiday sales.

    Liked by 2 people

    • GB Bari says:

      Family member who drives truck pulling containers and other cargo for the Port of Baltimore says incoming traffic is noticeably DOWN over the past three months. His unlimited overtime that had been offered for the past three years has recently tapered off.

      He’s actually glad the excessive OT has subsided; he’s three years away from retirement and the past three years of 70 hour weeks has worn him out.

      Liked by 1 person

  14. We have a cat boarding business for 20+ years and normally Thanksgiving and Christmas are the super busy months. This year has been like that all year, overflowing capacity of 45 cats. This reflects people traveling, selling homes, buying homes, visiting relatives around the world. I haven’t even been able to take time to ride my bike.

    I’m tired of winning…../s

    Liked by 1 person

  15. FL_GUY says:

    President Trump has done more to help the everyday American citizen than any President in the last 31 years if not ever. And, he is doing it while being attacked 24/7 from every two bit politician, media-rat and special interest group who are aligning themselves with elitists and foreign governments to continue to try to sell out and enslave the American people.

    President Trump is a National Treasure. I wish there was more, We the People could do directly to help him fight these battles; he is alone and he is fighting for us. He took a job that he didn’t need, left a lifestyle that I can’t even envision the luxury, doesn’t get paid and loses money every day he is President. He is maligned by friends and foes alike. I’m really sick of it. Imagine how great things would be if the truth was reported about how great things really are in America thanks to President Trump and if the people against President Trump, the critics and liars would STFU. No matter how good the news, like psychotics they continue with the same negative delusions. I’m weary JMHO

    Liked by 8 people

    • Perot Conservative says:

      1. Capitalism
      2. The Free Market
      3. Massive regulation cut
      4. Tax cuts
      5. Energy
      6. Manufacturing
      7. FREE, FAIR TRADE (Ross Perot)
      8. Cheerleading

      Liked by 2 people

      • Bob says:

        Let’s add to that great list….the Fair Tax….then you will see our Country grow like it had rockets on all businesses….remember FAIR TAX…not the dumb flat tax or the even worse VAT tax that has been choking Europe for many years.

        Like

        • I cannot disagree more. Giving the Federal govt the extra-Constitutional right of levying a sales tax is equally as bad as any of Keynes theories.
          It would open the door to VAT and every other middle class-destroying tax scheme known… and new ones we have never heard of.

          Liked by 1 person

    • rustybritches says:

      We can help him by saying a prayer every day for him and the people who truly support him Keep your head up and chin down and Your post is truly a treasure Thanks for posting We can help him by being supportive of what he is trying to do and that’s about it
      just keep in mind when people make you believe all their nonsense that some where in all that he is doing He has a plan and that plan has a lot to do with what he wants for the American people thanks again

      Like

  16. kp says:

    FL_GUY,

    …and he’s just getting started. KAG2020

    Like

  17. StanH says:

    But…but Orangeman bad?!

    In the long run this is what matters. The other stuff — click bait.

    Like

  18. Perot Conservative says:

    Great news. Atlanta Fed Now estimating 1.6% GDP growth for Q2; Larry Kudlow estimating over 3%. I’m praying for the later.

    Given the lynchpin importance of USMCA – Kudlow says it may add 1/2% to GDP and create 200,000 jobs – why is POTUS now treating it like a stepchild? (OK, one recent rally.)

    Rarely a tweet, embroiled with the Jihad Sisters. TR RL engaged; Congressmen engaged; ag groups engaged.

    Curious.

    Especially when USMCA passes, India, Vietnam, China and maybe even the EU get s wake up call. Bigly. Phase II.

    Like

    • Arrest Soros says:

      Retail growth Q2 2019 over Q2 2018 was 3.5%
      If it’s true that retail sales are 70% of GDP, then 3.5 x 0.7 = 2.45%
      For the Atlanta Fed to be right, import/export contribution to GDP would have to be -0.85%
      i.e. 2.45 – 0.85 = 1.6
      For Kudlow to be right, import/export contribution to GDP would need to be +0.55%
      i.e. 2.45 + 0.55 = 3.0.

      My money is on Kudlow. Flow of money is INTO the US. Imports from China slowing.

      Like

  19. great president Trump we ever had,
    we want you 4’more years president,

    Like

  20. TreeClimber says:

    The company my husband is currently working for, as a material handler, cares nothing about their employees, pays $11.25 an hour, is lazy, messes up their accounting/pay disbursement at least once every couple months, and is hemorrhaging people – and instead of hiring more or giving raises to the ones they have left, they just pile more work and stressed irritable managers on them.

    In the past week, my husband has gotten three offers – offers, mind you, not “we received your application”s – for varying forms of IT work, his specialty – all paying $18+ an hour. Of them, if I remember correctly, two are straight to permanent – no “contract-to-permanent” BS (although one is.) He’s planning on changing jobs as soon as he can, probably to whichever one gets through processing first. I’m more hopeful than when this used to happen, because the job market is even stronger than a year ago – for the past several years, even “offers” weren’t dependable, but now… companies seem much more eager to get good workers. We’re hoping and praying.

    At the moment, we’re still pinching and scraping and barely getting the bills paid (if I weren’t working as well we wouldn’t be able to make it.) If he gets to transfer to one of these jobs we very well may be contributing to that 0.7% this time next year… or else we’ll be contributing to the mortgage/housing market…

    Like

  21. uptothere says:

    The mantra now is that manufacturing has fallen off and because of that, recession is soon to follow. It’s like Wall Street and the Fed. Just the thought of an interest rate adjustment throws the market into wild swings. Ridiculous!

    Like

  22. uptothere says:

    The mantra now is that manufacturing has fallen off and because of that, recession is soon to follow. It’s like Wall Street and the Fed. Just the thought of an interest rate adjustment throws the market into wild swings. Ridiculous!

    Like

  23. uptothere says:

    The mantra now is that manufacturing has fallen off and because of that, recession is soon to follow. It’s like Wall Street and the Fed. Just the thought of an interest rate adjustment throws the market into wild swings. Ridiculous!

    Like

  24. BIG BONUS: Companies shifting from China to Mexico will create a YUGE MAGNET …
    • For “Asylum Seekers” to STOP in Mexico
    • For “Economic Migrants” to STAY in Mexico
    • For “Illegal Aliens” to RETURN to Mexico
    • For “Deported Illegals” to WORK in Mexico

    RE: “we STOP giving money to our economic enemy, China; and while some companies will look to Mexico first -before the U.S.- we at least make North America the best bet for manufacturing investment and get that money out of China.”

    Like

  25. Arrest Soros says:

    So if consumer spending is up 3.8% from June 18 to June 19, and consumer spending is 70% of GDP, then GDP is up 2.66% June 18 to June 19.
    The contribution of Imports/exports to GDP only has to be 0.34% for the same period to make a total of 3% GDP.
    Easily done. GDP will be higher than the previous 3.2%
    Winning.

    Like

  26. jeans2nd says:

    Recently heard postulated that our “sharing economy” is not measured, and would add at least .5% to GDP.
    “Sharing economy” is Uber, Lyft, AirBnB, Door Dash, rent-a-worker, etc.
    Interesting thought; makes sense.

    Like

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