As anticipated, based on the previous comments by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, following the significant increase in NATO war likelihood, President Trump met with military leaders today.
Looks like messaging for all parties involved.
A few datapoints to keep on a post-it note as things progress; starting with a rather significant new release that I think you will find interesting.
Approximately 12.3 million Mexicans live abroad, both legally and illegally, with 97% of them living and working in the United States, according to BBVA Research. Last year Mexicans living abroad sent $64.75 billion back home in remittances, largely from Texas and California to states in central and western Mexico.
According to data just released, in April of this year remittances back to Mexico dropped 12.1%. The Mexico central bank said April saw 8.1% fewer transactions than a year earlier, that’s down to 12.4 million transactions. For Mexico this could be a devastating trend. [Sidenote: Remember, Trump is likely planning a complete overhaul of the USMCA later this year.]
MEXICO CITY (Reuters) -Remittances sent to Mexico slumped 12.1% in April compared to a year earlier, according to central bank data published on Monday, marking the steepest drop in over a decade as U.S. lawmakers mull a tax on such payments sent abroad.
The world’s second-largest recipient of remittances, Mexico receives these payments chiefly from migrants working in the neighboring United States. In April, Mexicans abroad sent fewer transactions and smaller payments, totaling $4.76 billion.
Analysts said the slump likely resulted from a broad crackdown on migration in the U.S. since President Donald Trump came to power in January, as authorities revoke some Biden-era protections and increase raids across the country.
The latest data marks the steepest year-on-year drop since September 2012, according to central bank data.
President Trump has not made any statement after Ukraine launched an attack yesterday deep into Russia targeting long-range nuclear capable bombers. Russian President Vladimir Putin has also remained quiet throughout the day today. However, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaking from Vilnius, Lithuania, publicly bragged about the operation today.
According to Turkish officials (note silence from Russia & Ukraine), the previously scheduled meeting between Russian and Ukranian negotiators ended today after less than an hour. There are no details about what took place inside the Ciragan Palace in Istanbul, just that once the meeting attendees were seated and gave initial remarks, the event dissolved. Both the Russian and Ukrainian teams left the building.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt appeared full of nervous energy as she spoke to journalists outside the White House, noting that President Trump was in meetings and discussions all day while taking phone calls.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov have also remained silent.
Inside Russia the general sense is one of preparation. As I noted in my debrief from last year, the government of Russia has been preparing the Russian people for an expanded escalation of the conflict for quite some time. The Russian media are deliberately pointing to Ukraine -and only Ukraine- in their domestic reporting of the attacks. There is no mention within Russian media of EU, NATO or USA support for the events that took place Sunday; however, there were a few mentions of Great Britain as a likely assistant to the attacks.
Ukraine President Zelenskyy is playing with fire by targeting them, which also explains why Zelenskyy never told President Trump in advance.
The U.S and NATO have provided the means. However, #1) did Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy just exploit a vulnerability by targeting Russian long-range nuclear capable bombers? and #2) was the CIA and NATO intelligence community a willfully blind participant knowing they would benefit?
Both the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT) and the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), call for U.S. and Russian long range nuclear capable bombers to remain “visible and observable by national technical means of verification.” That open visibility creates a mutual vulnerability as well as a method of surveillance and verification for both the USA and Russian Federation.
[Article III, Paragraph 7, START Treaty Overview]
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and by extension his NATO enablers, just exploited that SALT/START vulnerability and used drones to attack Russian bombers covered by USA-Russia treaties. There are reports (and videos) now surfacing from inside Russia showing the Russian Federation moving strategic long-range mobile missile launchers into position for a counterattack against Ukraine.
This situation is obviously very fluid and let us all hope that President Trump and President Putin are in communication about this escalation as created by Zelenskyy and his enablers, even if -and probably especially if- our own intelligence agencies are part of the enabling.
Think about the ramifications of NATO enabled Ukraine targeting major Russian military assets which are vulnerable only because they are part of a previously agreed U.S-Russia negotiation to remain vulnerable. In essence, an argument can be made by Russia that NATO -and by extension us- have targeted nuclear capable missile systems, and those systems were protected by the SALT/START treaties. How would we respond if an adversary launched a strike against our strategic long-range nuclear capable bombers in the USA?
The basic outline of what took place are now a bit clearer. In what was called “Operation Spider Web” Ukraine counterintelligence operatives staged a series of semi-trucks near five strategic air bases deep inside Russia. The trucks were loaded with explosive drones, and the drones came out and attacked the bases. Most of the truck drivers and drone operators were captured by Russian military. It was a suicide mission.
According to Ukraine government officials the mission was a big success; however, the claim of 40 strategic long-range Russian bombers being destroyed seems more like a PR narrative than likely actual outcome.
Factually, it was a counterintelligence success to pull off such a well-coordinated significant operation deep inside the Russian Federation. However, on the other hand this operation outlines how Russia is more like the USA than people think as it relates to the locations of their military bases and the vulnerable proximity around them.
Most Americans think of Russia as some form of locked-down totalitarian state where every square inch is under strict surveillance. My recent travels throughout Russia highlight exactly the opposite. Russia is far more open and unmonitored; yes, even around military bases, than our own country. There is not a big matrix of surveillance around the Russian Federation at all.
Some of the five known attacks took place 2,000km deep into Russia. According to Axios, “Ukrainian intelligence agents launched 117 attack drones from trucks that have been covertly placed near Russian air bases — some of them in Siberia — thousands of kilometers from Ukraine. Around 40 Russian military planes — most of them strategic bombers — were reportedly hit in the attack. Zelensky said 34% of Russias strategic bombers were hit.”
I doubt the accuracy of that “40” hit target number with 117 drones; yet even if true, not all the targeted aircraft would be completely disabled.
According to CBS, “The drones hit airfields including the Belaya air base in Russia’s Irkutsk region, more than 2,500 miles from Ukraine. It is the first time that a Ukrainian drone has been seen in the region, local Gov. Igor Kobzev told AP, stressing that it did not present a threat to civilians. While White House spokespeople declined to comment on the attack, administration sources told CBS News on Sunday that the White House was not aware it was coming.”
If we cut through all the polite pretending, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick appears on Fox News to tell the bobble head the nation specific tariffs are going to hit regardless of what approaches need to be taken. President Trump is going to remain focused on structural changes to the global economic system of trade, manufacturing and USA commerce despite all of the grandiose efforts of the multinationals and their Lawfare foot soldiers.
As Lutnick again repeats, there are a variety of legal mechanisms that can be used to enforce the tariff program triggered by President Trump. Adhering to them is not optional for trade partners who wish to have access to the USA market. If the exporting nation wants to play games, try and delay or delay tactics, the end result will be even more against their interests. There is no alternative other than to acquiesce. WATCH:
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is going to find this out on Thursday when he shows up in full Blackrock mode and only creates a worse scenario for himself and the EU Commission he represents. If Merz wants ‘ugly’, no problem – President Trump has an endless supply of big ugly tools.
FA-FO!
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appears on CBS News to counter the false information being spread by Margaret Brennan on behalf of Wall Street corporations. The topics of interest surround China and tariffs.
Let me clarify for the audience that does not follow closely. Tariffs are paid by the importer based on the wholesale price of the product as delivered by the exporting country depending on the exporters’ tariff rate. Tariffs are NOT LEVIED/PAID based on the retail price of the product as sold to the consumer.
Example: A pair of Denim Jeans made in China for Guess Brand. The Chinese manufacturer sells the jeans to Guess Brand for $10 a pair manufactured. Guess sells the jeans at retail in the USA for $100 (a $90 gross profit).
A 50% tariff on China means the jeans cost Guess Brand $15 instead of $10 (an $85 gross profit). A 50% tariff on Guess brand jeans, that retail for $100, changes the cost to the retail brand by $5.
Multinational corporations who have off shored their production and manufacturing to China are the ones screaming about tariffs. Ultimately in the final analysis, President Trump is exposing corporatism, multinational corporate vultures; he is not necessarily just exposing China.
In the example above the company makes $85 gross profit as opposed to $90 gross profit on the pair of jeans if they do not raise the retail price. They don’t raise the price because their profit margins are already ridiculous, and that’s why consumer prices do not go up. A 50% direct tariff on Chinese goods only marginally hits the multinational corporation. American consumers need to understand this dynamic better. WATCH:
[TRANSCRIPT] – MARGARET BRENNAN: Good morning and welcome to ‘Face the Nation.’ We begin today with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Good morning and thank you for being here.
SECRETARY SCOTT BESSENT: Morning, Margaret.
MARGARET BRENNAN: There’s so much to get to. I want to start with China, because the Defense Secretary just said there’s an imminent military threat from China to Taiwan. Days earlier, Secretary Rubio said he’d aggressively revoked Chinese student visas. On top of that, you have curbing exports to China. Trade talks you said with Beijing are stalled, and President Trump just accused China of violating an agreement, and now says no more, ‘Mr. Nice Guy.’ Are you intentionally escalating this standoff with Beijing?
Next week on Thursday, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is scheduled to travel to Washington DC and meet with President Donald Trump in the White House. Considering the importance of Germany to the EU economy and subsequent trade relationship with the U.S, this meeting with Merz will likely be the most important discussion toward a possible U.S-E.U. trade agreement.
Germany is the largest economy within the EU and the core industrial base of the European Union. The number one issue for the German people is their economic status: everything else circles around this priority.
Having spent time in Hamburg, Bremen, Dresden and Frankfurt, it is very clear to me the German people are very focused on work and their vocations. Germans overall, take their economic standing very personally and seriously.
Inasmuch as Merz may have to represent the interests of the larger EU in his approach, he will undoubtedly be focused on what is in Germany’s best interest, with all else second.
For President Trump this specific German interest creates a unique facet of leverage within the larger EU trade discussion. Because the German economy is so vital, whatever terms Germany decides are the core terms the EU will manifest in their trade and tariff negotiations.
I predict we will hear a talking point from Merz, in generally German snark, something akin to a proposal for a zero-tariff base on the import and export of heavy industrial goods (machinery) for both Germany and the USA. I say in general German snark because passive-aggressive Chancellor Merz knows the U.S. is currently not in a position to sell Germany heavy industrial goods, and that’s entirely what President Trump is trying to recreate with the trade/tariff policy.
WASHINGTON DC – German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will travel to Washington next week to meet United States President Donald Trump for the first time since taking office earlier this month.
The leaders will meet in the White House on Thursday and are expected to discuss the war in Ukraine, the Middle East and trade policy, German government spokesperson Stefan Kornelius said in an emailed statement.
As previously noted, Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley released some of the FBI investigative files related to a congressional referral of Nellie Ohr for false testimony to congress. Within the Grassley release the declassified FBI investigative notes show that Trump-Russia files were compartmentalized, allowing control over access to them by the FBI Director and FBI Deputy Director.
The 7th floor level classification within the FBI’s Sentinel record-keeping system was previously unknown, and now people are starting to ask questions about what other information may be filed yet invisible due to the classification designation of “Prohibited Access.”
The Sentinel record-keeping system allows FBI officials and investigators to review and research the status of investigations both past and current. The Sentinel system is also the information system that is searched for responsive documents to legal cases and FOIA inquires. The Sentinel system contains all the information used by the FBI.
Within the Sentinel system there are “Restricted Access” files that are used to control who can view the file information. The FBI official can see the file but cannot access the information within it without a higher clearance level. However, now people are discovering there is a “Prohibited Access” designation that makes the file invisible to searches or queries and is controlled by the FBI Director and FBI Deputy Director.
Margot Cleveland is asking some good questions about how the use of the “Prohibited Access” designation may circumvent the FBI’s legal requirements (brady material) and FOIA searches. [SEE HERE] However, I would also note this approach hides information not only from congress and from the public, but also from the Executive branch itself. The DNI wouldn’t even know what information exists.
The New York Times (think DHS embeds) are not concerned about the building of a surveillance state using cross-reference artificial intelligence systems into various government agencies; no, the New York Times (think DHS embeds) are concerned it is President Trump triggering the building of the process, and the parameters therein.
I have outlined this seemingly inevitable construct with great granular detail, that is creating the surveillance state for almost a year. Culminating in a December 2024 recap [SEE HERE] along with my position in January of this year [SEE HERE]. I do not like it, but I understand the arguments behind it.
[New York Times] – In March, President Trump signed an executive order calling for the federal government to share data across agencies, raising questions over whether he might compile a master list of personal information on Americans that could give him untold surveillance power.
Mr. Trump has not publicly talked about the effort since. But behind the scenes, officials have quietly put technological building blocks into place to enable his plan. In particular, they have turned to one company: Palantir, the data analysis and technology firm.
The Trump administration has expanded Palantir’s work across the federal government in recent months. The company has received more than $113 million in federal government spending since Mr. Trump took office, according to public records, including additional funds from existing contracts as well as new contracts with the Department of Homeland Security and the Pentagon. (This does not include a $795 million contract that the Department of Defense awarded the company last week, which has not been spent.)