Everything including oil, natural gas, wheat, and fertilizer is skyrocketing in price right now.  Ten- and twenty-year records are being eclipsed, as energy prices are soaring on the back of oil flirting with $114 a barrel.  Unfortunately, here comes more inflationary pain, and everything is being blamed on the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Toward the end of last year, we warned that fertilizer costs were going to harvest costs in 2022 (field to fork, go deep), long before Ukraine came into the picture.  Unfortunately, future wheat prices reached $10.59 a bushel today, the highest since March 2008.  Additionally, corn prices have passed their highest rate since December 2012.

It may seem like those crops are not that important.  However, keep in mind that corn, wheat and soybeans represent the baseline for not only grain production in the U.S, but they are also the primary feed products for proteins: chicken, pork and beef.  We are going to feel this second wave surge at the grocery store.  Hopefully everyone has prepped.

Additionally, oil prices have jumped to near eight-year highs. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose as high as $113.94 a barrel, the highest since June 2014, and has been trading around $111 for most of the day.  If you were paying $4/gal for gas, these oil rates add around another .50¢ today alone.  Yes, you read that correctly, inbound tankers of gasoline will offload at your convenience store at a rate ten percent higher than yesterday.

Making matters worse, the Joe Biden energy policy -focused almost exclusively on green energy- is making any investment in domestic oil production tenuous at best.   The major oil companies are wary of spending money for U.S. energy development in a climate where the U.S. government is specifically against that effort.

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Tonight at 9:00pm ET the installed occupant in the White House will whisper, shout and mutter out loud as he reads words written by others.  The executive is required to deliver an annual ‘state of the union’ notification to the legislative branch.

The script reading begins at 9:00pm ET and will be broadcast on all major television networks.  Consider this an open discussion thread for your thoughts and comments if you are listening to the reading.

CSPAN Livestream Link – PBS Livestream Link

The Republican Response will be delivered by Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds after the president concludes his address.

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There comes a time in every performance of the United Nations production when the arch villain bombs the milk factories.  Today, Russian President Vladimir Putin takes his turn.

As we return to our seats from the lobby during commercial interlude, we discover the model U.N. interns have left the blue and yellow ribbons on our seats. We know exactly what segment of the melodrama comes next; the children are suffering.

The well attired gentlemen in the mezzanine know this is the moment when they must position their freshly pressed pocket kerchief for quick access.  Heart strings will be pulled, and silk gowns do not fare well as the tears begin to flow. Well educated chivalry, passed down from father to son, has prepared them for this moment.  It’s not quite time for the checkbooks yet; first they must feel the sound of the violins.

Surprisingly, Bono and Geldorf have not yet made their appearance.  However, with the speed of modern social media, and knowing the technology of our time means we cannot wait, the EU assembly must lay the groundwork for the great American oration that is center stage from the Capitol later tonight.

New York – Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky urged the EU to “prove you are with us” in a defiant speech on Tuesday.

Mr Zelenesky, who has become a symbol of defiance for his country, issued an impassioned speech via video link, where he called on the EU to stand with Ukraine as Russia continues its deadly advance on the country.

During his speech, Mr Zelensky described the missile strikes on Kharkiv, as an act of terror against the city, and indeed Ukraine.

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Remember that fourth quarter GDP result that seemed manipulated?  Well, I suspect the record setting trade deficit now being reported for January is an outcome of those pesky fourth quarter trade results being intentionally skewed by the withholding of December 2021 import data.

Additionally, methinks we are likely to get some increased economic clarity about why the White House needed Ukraine to become the big shiny thing with such urgency.

Just like everything else, geopolitical dynamics –especially those surrounding entrenched ideology– are always about the economics.  Someone, eventually, always has to pay.  Follow the money; there are trillions at stake.

First, keep in mind that missing Port of Los Angeles result from December as you review the import/export details:

(REUTERS) […]  The goods trade deficit jumped 7.1% to an all-time high of $107.6 billion last month. Imports of goods increased 1.7%, led by food and motor vehicles. There were also large increases in imports of industrial supplies, capital and consumer goods. Imports of other goods, however, tumbled 15.3%.

Exports dropped 1.8%, weighed down by consumer goods, motor vehicles, food and other goods. But exports of capital goods and industrial supplies increased. Trade has been a drag on gross domestic product for six straight quarters. (read more)

That missing Port of LA December import data, now being introduced into the month of January, might just be the cause of the “all time high” noted above.  I will bet one sustainable rice cake on it.

Next up, inflation.

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A fantastic piece by Peter Beinart on substack {SEE HERE} puts excellent clarity on the people around Joe Biden baiting Russian President Vladimir Putin to enter Ukraine.

Current CIA Director William “Bill” Burns was the former ambassador to Russia and Jordan.  Bill Burns had a 33-year career at the State Department under both Republican and Democratic presidents and speaks fluent Russian. If the people in the background of Joe Biden wanted an intelligence operative to trigger a specific result from Russia, there’s no one more strategically perfect for the job than CIA Director Bill Burns.

The article by Beinart is mainly focused on pointing out the irreconcilable nature of Joe Biden implying Ukraine could join NATO, while his own CIA Director has a history of giving serious warnings emphasizing the “brightest of all red lines” about that specific point.

[…]  “Two years ago, Burns wrote a memoir entitled, The Back Channel. It directly contradicts the argument being proffered by the administration he now serves. In his book, Burns says over and over that Russians of all ideological stripes—not just Putin—loathed and feared NATO expansion. He quotes a memo he wrote while serving as counselor for political affairs at the US embassy in Moscow in 1995. ‘Hostility to early NATO expansion,” it declares, “is almost universally felt across the domestic political spectrum here.”

On the question of extending NATO membership to Ukraine, Burns’ warnings about the breadth of Russian opposition are even more emphatic. “Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all redlines for the Russian elite (not just Putin),” he wrote in a 2008 memo to then-Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. “In more than two and a half years of conversations with key Russian players, from knuckle-draggers in the dark recesses of the Kremlin to Putin’s sharpest liberal critics, I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests.” (read more)

Against this backdrop of Bill Burns, the details about the lead up to the Russia-Ukraine crisis gain quite a bit of clarity.

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Attending a black history month celebration at the White House today, Kamala Harris gleefully remarked “you get what you vote for”.

WATCH 04:11 Prompted:

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As the beatification of Saint Zelenskyy continues in the west, the Ukrainian president signs a request for EU membership.  The propaganda is thick obviously as these things take years; however, when the social media optics of World War Reddit need an angle, well, the selfie star is mandated to comply.

The western propaganda campaign continues in stunning form as the U.S. State Department coordinates the collaboration of global elites in their campaign against Russia.  However, there are a few conservative voices in the U.S, and the people outside the beltway who have started figuring this all out, beginning to wonder if the assembly of global leftists is really the Ukrainian cocktail party they want to attend.

Everything surrounding the propaganda push continues unabated, as the public image of Volodymyr Zelenskyy is maintained by the very best efforts of Madison Avenue, Hollywood and Silicon Valley.  All the best people, you know, the ‘elites’, are flowing in one direction.

At this point in the dynamic, the Big Tech social media groups have fulfilled the demands of the White House, State Dept, intelligence agencies, United Nations, EU, NATO, World Economic Forum, George Soros and U.S. Foreign Relations Committee, and rallied the collective west to defeat Russia using the cultural weapon of social likeability.

It is verboten to speak about warrior Zelenskyy with anything other than heroism.  References of David and Goliath are recommended.

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Macgregor Makes Sense!

My spidey senses tell me that Col Douglas Macgregor will not be welcomed back on Fox News after he gave a rather different take on what is happening amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict that does not toe the common media line.  [SEGMENT HERE] Jennifer Griffin was furious.

The first presentation was during a segment with Fox Host Dan Bongino (below).   The second presentation of essentially the same analysis was with Trey Gowdy [SEGMENT HERE].  In both discussions Macgregor’s perspective reconciles the disparity between what the U.S. government, State Dept, and corporate media are saying -vs- what is visible.

Essentially, Macgregor is saying that Russia does not want to engage a civilian population and is making every effort to avoid civilian conflict in those population centers.  In part this is because Putin knows the Western approach is a propaganda war that would be fueled by what it would look like if population carnage took place. However, if Ukraine President Zelenskyy does not acquiesce to terms, Putin could easily crush those centers with artillery and rockets.  WATCH:

What Macgregor outlines would explain why these skirmishes always seem ‘off in the distance’.

The western government and media perspective is to make it seem like Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the rebellious civilian misfits are beating the Russian army because that frames a better story.  However, what Macgregor outlines is Putin not wanting to fuel the United Nations, NATO and State Dept narrative engineering, thus the absence of visible fighting.

The second segment with Trey Gowdy is HERE… and below:

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In case you missed it, March 1st has been declared as the unofficial end date for COVID-19 as a political weapon.

Domestically, the political leftists, who weaponized science for their totalitarian control, have decided it is time to head for the exits.  We are now supposed to ignore the last two years of brutal impact they inflicted on society.  You can always spot the shift by looking at how Hollywood and pop culture are triggered by the messaging from the political crew.

Once given the nod, there’s a silent move toward the exits while everyone is distracted.  Of course, the exit strategy is always frustrating for those who have watched this play out.  The SNL segment is presented as humor, but when you recognize the inherent message, there’s nothing funny about it.

The left weaponized COVID for their political needs.  However, within this COVID fiasco there were real victims.  Many people lost incomes, small businesses were closed, families were torn apart as people were caught up in the frenzy.  All of that now positioned as a joke, as the professionally political left try to find a way to tell their tribe it’s over.

We are supposed to forget the pain they inflicted as loved ones were choking in anguish, unable to visit family in hospital, the funerals that were not permitted, the catastrophic damage to our children’s lives, and the massive ridicule deployed (with maximum snark) in their condescending attacks against anyone who did not kneel at the altar of COVID virtue signaling.  All of it…. ALL OF IT… now boiled down to a few jokes as they walk backwards trying to avoid the political fallout.

They are declaring victory, and moving on.

These are sick people.

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The propaganda pouring out of Ukraine from the U.S. State Department and the taxpayer funded Non-Governmental Organizations (NGO’s) is, in a modern scale, historic.

In their collective effort to make #Ukraine the modern image of The Alamo (where the last stand to defend all mankind is taking place), the corporate media, state dept and NGO’s are utilizing their Hollywood directed #BringBackOurGirls and #KonySurrender techniques in the extreme.

Pay no attention to the absence of any war fighting actually taking place, meaning the lack of actual fighting shooting and stuff in a modern era where everyone has cell phone cameras, and instead focus your attention to the ‘story telling.’

After all, the White House was very clear that the winner of this contest to defend all humanity from the Russian villain Vladimir Putin, would depend on who could tell a “better story.”

Thus, you do not need to see shooting or actual war type stuff.  Instead, the contest to save the planet is boiled down to who can take a better selfie.

As Deputy National Security Advisor Daleep Singh stated last week, the U.S. government has rallied the collective west to defeat Russia using the cultural weapon of social likeability.   Vladimir Putin is getting pummeled.

It’s all a grand pantomime folks.  All of it.  Volodymyr Zelenskyy is the newest Michael Avenatti.

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