…Rule two, there is no bigger rule than the first rule.

“It must be remembered that there is nothing more difficult to plan, more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to manage than a new system. For the initiator has the enmity of all who would profit by the preservation of the old institution and merely lukewarm defenders in those who gain by the new ones.”

~ Niccolo Machiavelli

Never has that Machiavelli quote been more apropos than when considering the MAGA movement and the rise of Donald Trump.

Thankfully, we are now in an era when the largest coalition of American voters have awakened to the reality that, to quote the former president: “Economic Security is National Security.”

As we live through the economic mess of a Biden administration hell bent on eroding the middle class of the United States, there are numerous pundits contemplating 2024 Republican presidential candidates other than Donald Trump; consider this group the lukewarm defenders Machiavelli noted.

At the same time the leftist coalition, writ large, are apoplectic about the base of the Republican Party now belonging to Donald Trump.  This group consists of those affluent Wall Street agents and politicians set on retaining the profits derived from decades of institutional objectives.

Institutional Democrats hate Trump, and institutional Republicans are lukewarm, at best, in defending Trump.  Both wings of the DC UniParty fear Trump.  Extreme efforts at control are a reaction to fear.  In this outline, I rise to explain why Donald Trump is the only option for the America First MAGA coalition; and I make my case not on supposition, but on empirical reference points that most should understand.

Everything, is about the economics of it.

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Energy development companies had identified 744,000 acres of federal land which could yield significant returns for oil and gas extraction.  Today the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) authorized leases for 173 parcels on 144,000 acres; approximately 80% less than was identified by energy companies.  [BLM Press Release Here]

Dept of Interior Secretary Deb Haaland (pictured left) shared, “today, we begin to reset how and what we consider to be the highest and best use of Americans’ resources for the benefit of all current and future generations.”

The Biden administration, together with tribal leadership are concerned about environmental justice and sustainable energy equity for a host of multigenerational shareholder elements within the limited areas under consideration.

As the press release notes, “this pragmatic approach focuses leasing on parcels near existing development and infrastructure, such as gathering lines that can help reduce venting and flaring, and will help conserve the resilience of intact public lands and functioning ecosystems.

The new leases are mostly for areas where already existing oil and gas exploration is taking place, and the Biden administration has raised the federal royalty charges from 12.5% to a new 18.75%.   In order to keep upward pressure on gasoline prices, Green New Deal national target price $7/gal, the new leases will not be available until later this year.

[Media Article Here]

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Jumpin’ ju-ju bones, this is rather remarkable.  Two video segments from CNN today highlight just how horrible things are for Democrats this mid-term election year.  No amount of J6 leverage is going to offset the way Americans feel about Joe Biden.

Delivering a summary of the last four most recent and consecutive polls, even CNN had to report that President Joe Biden’s approval is the lowest ever for any president at this point in any presidency.  According to the CNN presentation, Joe Biden is “in a lot of trouble,” as outlined during a segment on CNN’s “New Day” with Brianna Keilar and John Berman.  WATCH:

The second segment is even worse news than the first.  In the second segment they take a look at all modern presidential polling and discover that Joe Biden has a lower approval rating than even Jimmy Carter in 1978.

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The social media and communication platform Twitter, responded to the bid by billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk by announcing Friday the Twitter board of directors has unanimously adopted a “poison pill” defense in response to Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s proposal to buy the company and take it private. [LINK to Press Release]

Twitter said the move, formally called a “limited duration shareholder rights plan,” aims to enable its investors to “realize the full value of their investment” by reducing the likelihood that any one person can gain control of the company without either paying shareholders a premium or giving the board more time. Poison pills are often used to defend against hostile takeovers.

According to Twitter’s plan, if Musk or any other person or group acquires at least 15 percent of Twitter’s stock, the poison pill will trigger.

At that point, every other shareholder, aside from Musk, would be allowed to purchase new shares of Twitter at half the going market price, which stood at $45.08 at the closing bell on Thursday.

The flood of half-price shares would effectively dilute Musk’s ownership stake, making it massively more expensive for him to build up a controlling position.  Twitter said its board had voted unanimously in favor of the plan, which will remain in effect until April 14, 2023.

Obviously, the people in control of Twitter really do not want to lose control over the platform.  Elon Musk’s offer to purchase Twitter at $54.20 per share, represents a value of 38% more than his first shares purchased.  The public shareholders would make a sizeable return on their investment. However, the fiduciary responsibility of a board of directors to its shareholders is really not what this is about.

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The U.S. Census Bureau {LINK} reports the March retail sales data {pdf LINK} showing a contraction in sales overall (excluding gasoline) and a massive contraction in on-line sales.  As we expected, we are seeing the continued demand side contraction for non-essential purchases.

First, when you review the data, keep in mind all of the statistics are based on dollars.  Currently the BLS calculates the rate of inflation at 8.5 percent year over year. So, when we look at retail sales figures, we must remember the items being sold cost more.  Any reported sales figures in a sector that do not exceed the inflation in that sector, indicates decline in units sold.

The top-line for March retail sales is 0.5% growth; however, the rate of inflation is 8.5%, so the amount of goods sold is substantially less than the 0.5% dollar increase would indicate.  Subtract the sales of gasoline (w/ massive price increases), and retail sales are negative (-0.3%) in March.  SEE TABLE-2

A good category to note the contraction in non-essential purchases is electronics and appliances.  Again, CORE inflation in that segment is around 6%, and yet total sales were only 3.3% higher, meaning less actual units sold.  Compared to 2021, electronics and appliance sales dropped 9.7%.

Showing how much people are pinched, gasoline prices are around 60% higher than this time last year, yet gas station sales only increased by 8.9%.  This means people are buying a lot less fuel at much higher prices.  People have shifted their transportation habits because gas costs so much.

Two more very interesting notes:

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CNBC commissioned a poll by Hart research and associates, a friendly outfit for the left.  Unfortunately, that means CNBC then needed to tell everyone what the results were [Full Poll pdf Here].  That task fell to CNBC’s Steve Liesman; an appropriate name given the task at hand.

The irony doubles when you remember this was the same CNBC pundit who refused to accept the horrible economic data that began surfacing last fall.  There was even a public broadcast where Liesman said the BLS statistics had to be wrong, because the results were so horrible.  A few months later, and here he is explaining how the country now feels about Joe Biden.   WATCH:

(CNBC) – […] The pessimism is clearly dragging on Americans’ opinions of President Joe Biden. In fact, nothing looks to be working in the Biden presidency from the public’s viewpoint.

The president’s approval rating sank to a new low of just 38%, with 53% disapproving. Biden’s -15% net approval rating is measurably worse than his -9% approval in the CNBC December survey. What’s more, his approval rating on the economy dropped for a fourth straight survey to just 35%, with 60% disapproving, putting the president a deep 25 points underwater. (article link)

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Yesterday in Iowa, Joe Biden called the Russian military operation in Ukraine a “genocide,” which has a very specific set of legal definitions to it.

When asked if he had seen enough evidence to support that statement Biden responded:

“Yes, I called it genocide.  It has become clearer and clearer that Putin is just trying to wipe out the idea of even being — being able to be Ukrainian.  And the amount — the evidence is mounting.  It’s different than it was last week.  The — more evidence is coming out of the — literally, the horrible things that the Russians have done in Ukraine.  And we’re going to only learn more and more about the devastation. And we’ll let the lawyers decide internationally whether or not it qualifies, but it sure seems that way to me.”  (link)

Several ground reports from European journalists indicate the U.S. military is running all of the combat operations inside Ukraine. A French reporter said on Euro News, “I thought I was with the international brigades, and instead I was facing the Pentagon.”  Now today, Joe Biden announces he is arbitrarily sending U.S. combat helicopters into the conflict.

[Tweet Link]

(WHITE HOUSE) – I just spoke with President Zelenskyy and shared with him that my Administration is authorizing an additional $800 million in weapons, ammunition, and other security assistance to Ukraine.

The Ukrainian military has used the weapons we are providing to devastating effect. As Russia prepares to intensify its attack in the Donbas region, the United States will continue to provide Ukraine with the capabilities to defend itself.

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The “Producer Price Index” (PPI) is essentially the tracking of wholesale prices at three stages: Origination (commodity), Intermediate (processing), and then Final (to wholesale). Today, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released March price data [Available Here] showing a dramatic 11.2% increase year-over-year in Final Demand products at the wholesale level.  This is the fifth consecutive month with the highest rate of inflation the PPI ever recorded.

The single month increase in wholesale prices of 2.3% was driven by inflation built into the supply chain at every level that shows up in the final wholesale price.  Those price increases then get passed along to consumers along with the additional costs for warehousing, transportation and delivery.  I modified Table-A (FINAL DEMAND) to take out some of the noise.

Wholesale prices of goods jumped 2.3 percent in March, and the wholesale price of food products jumped 2.4 percent.  The total demand inflation compared to last year is 11.2 percent, the highest rate ever recorded since the PPI tracking was first started.

The total final demand monthly calculation (1.4%) is lower than the final demand goods (2.3%), because final demand services are offsetting.  You may remember the discussion/analysis about prices beginning to stabilize after this month due to a contraction in demand for goods and services.  I see support for that thesis within this data.

The three phases of wholesale product creation: (1) origination, (2) intermediate, and (3) final, cycle through the economic analysis in reverse chronological order.  Roughly speaking, the flow of goods quantified is done in 30-day sequences.  Final demand this month is comparing to final demand in March 2021.  The intermediate demand goods this month will become final demand goods next month (April).

The rate of inflation behind this set of final demand goods is beginning to soften.  See Table B, Intermediate goods.  Again, modified to take out the noise:

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The CDC announced today {SEE HERE} they are extending the federal emergency order requiring masks on planes, trains and public transportation for a period of 15 days, ending May 3rd.

The mask mandate was set to expire April 18. However, the Biden administration will keep the requirement in place for another 15 days under the justification of a rise in COVID-19 cases driven by the new BA.2 sublineage of the Omicron variant.

(Press Release) – […] The CDC Mask Order remains in effect while CDC assesses the potential impact of the rise of cases on severe disease, including hospitalizations and deaths, and healthcare system capacity. TSA will extend the security directive and emergency amendment for 15 days, through May 3, 2022. (link)

There are contradicting claims on the benefits and/or futility of wearing masks to avoid spreading the COVID-19 virus.  Several scientific studies have found no significant benefit; however, the theatrics of mask wearing is now a litmus test for global virtue.

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, has recently announced a new indoor mask mandate for their extended metropolitan area.  Fauci soundbite below.

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Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen delivered a remarkable speech today outlining “the future of the international order,” in the aftermath of the global pandemic and the current conflict in Ukraine.  Within the speech, Yellen outlines the priorities of the United States according to the current administration and the international financial mechanisms that she controls.

The speech is quite jaw-dropping when you consider the nature of her position, and the fact that she is an unelected bureaucrat within government.

As you read the speech {Transcript Here}, keep in mind she is not the President of the United States, or the commissioner of the New World Order, yet she presents herself as authorized to control the geopolitical constructs of the Biden administration.  The hubris is astounding.

Secretary Yellen: outlines the goals and objectives of the international order, predicts a concerning global famine, warns against the cleaving of financial mechanisms for international trade as an outcome of the Ukraine conflict, threatens any nation who does not support the western political alliance and outlines the need for decarbonization of the global economy.

Yellen expresses all of these powers from the position of a U.S. Treasury Secretary – the equivalent of a government financial minister.  Speech highlights with emphasis mine:

(Transcript) – […] “Russia’s horrific conduct has violated international law, including core tenets of the UN Charter—challenging countries to demonstrate where they stand with respect to the international order that has been built since World War II.  Therefore, when I speak about a changed global outlook, I’m not just talking about growth forecasts.  I’m also referring to our conception of international cooperation going forward.  

I will focus my remarks today on the significance of international cooperation in this current environment and for our future.

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