I do not know how to describe this with the Through The Looking Glass absurdity it deserves.

The ability of financial media and national economists to suspend accepting current reality, while making claims about the possibilities for next year, is ridiculous. Ask me why this era of great economic pretending is underway, and I have no answer. The intellectual dishonesty is beyond my comprehension.

The first and second quarters of the U.S. economy showed negative Gross Domestic Product valuations (GDP). We just finished the third quarter (July, Aug, Sept) and the likelihood of another negative GDP is high. Production is down, demand is down, consumer spending is down, inventories are climbing, and the economy is contracting. We are in a literal, technical and structural recession. Considering the Q1 and Q2 outcomes, we have been in a recession all year.

The Wall Street Journal publishes an article citing several notable economists who are putting the likelihood of a 2023 recession at 63%.

(WSJ) – […] On average, economists put the probability of a recession in the next 12 months at 63%, up from 49% in July’s survey. It is the first time the survey pegged the probability above 50% since July 2020, in the wake of the last short but sharp recession.

Their forecasts for 2023 are increasingly gloomy. Economists now expect gross domestic product to contract in the first two quarters of the year, a downgrade from the last quarterly survey, whereby they penciled in mild growth.

[…] Forecasters have ratcheted up their expectations for a recession because they increasingly doubt the Fed can keep raising rates to cool inflation without inducing higher unemployment and an economic downturn. Some 58.9% of economists said they think the Fed will raise interest rates too much and cause unnecessary economic weakness, up from 45.6% in July. (read more)

They are analyzing a pending recession in 2023 without even admitting we are in a recession right now. AT THIS VERY MOMENT.  We have two consecutive negative quarters of economic growth behind us (another Q3 result pending), and these economists are discussing a recession “next year“?

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South African President Cyril Ramaphosa held a two-day summit with Saudi Arabia on mostly economic matters.

At the conclusion of the summit, he confirmed the intent of Saudi Arabia to join the BRICS economic coalition, which should not come as a surprise given the previous statements by Saudi leader and Crown Prince Mohamed Bin Salman (MbS).

(MSM) Ramaphosa confirms Saudi Arabia wants to join Brics family.  This was revealed by President Cyril Ramaphosa during his two-day state visit to the kingdom on Sunday.

“The Crown Prince (prime minister Mohammad bin Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud) did express Saudi Arabia’s desire to be part of Brics and they are not the only country,” said Ramaphosa. He confirmed this on Sunday during an engagement with the media.

Brics held its first summit in 2009, with SA joining the following year. The bloc has generally been seen as an alternative to the dominance of the western economies.

“We did say that Brics having a summit next year under the chairship of South Africa in SA and the matter is going to be under consideration.

“A number of countries are making approaches to Brics members, and we have given them the same answer that it will be discussed by the Brics partners and thereafter a decision will be made.” (read more)

Since the outset of the Western Alliance sanctions against Russia, we have been predicting an increased geopolitical influence from the BRICS team.  A global financial and economic cleaving is underway created by the western nations chasing ideological climate change energy policy, while the rest of the world remains pragmatic toward oil, coal and natural gas as energy resources.

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Closing arguments wrapped up on the trial of Igor Danchenko, the primary source who delivered fraudulent information to Christopher Steele for transmission to the FBI.  The jury now has the case and it’s likely they will not convict.

When you accept the FBI knew the Steele Dossier was a fabricated assembly of political dirt against Trump, the trial of Danchenko becomes more about the FBI corruption than lies by the defendant.   How can the same DOJ who willingly and willfully benefitted from the lies, now turn around and prosecute the liar.   Hillary Clinton lawyers providing the defense for Danchenko used this angle to criticize the prosecution in closing arguments.

(Via CNN) […] Danchenko lawyer Stuart Sears said prosecutors brazenly cast aside information that “doesn’t support their narrative that he’s a liar.” Sears pointed out how Durham turned on his own witnesses after they provided evidence that helped the defense.

“The special counsel attacked them mercilessly,” Sears said. “They attacked the credibility of the very witnesses they called in here, because they didn’t say what they wanted them to say.”  Sears added: “The government’s own evidence in this case proves that the defendant is not guilty.”

Durham’s team urged jurors to convict Danchenko on Monday, telling them to “look at his own words” in emails from 2016 that they believe prove that he later misled the FBI about his ties to a possible dossier source.  “You didn’t check your common sense at the courthouse door,” prosecutor Michael Keilty said. “You need to use it.”

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This might be the most important outline to understand this whole sordid mess…

During the Friday testimony of witnesses put on the stand by Special Counsel John Durham, there were two key witnesses, FBI Analyst Brittany Hertzog and FBI Special Agent Amy Anderson.  Both witnesses testified they were part of the Mueller investigative team with a primary mission to investigate the claims in/around the Christopher Steele dossier.  [See Technofog Substack for transcript excerpts HERE]

The testimony of FBI agent Anderson and FBI analyst Hertzog (about their role in the Mueller probe) leads to one inescapable conclusion, Robert Mueller lied to congress when he testified the special counsel did not investigate Chris Steele, the Steele Dossier, Fusion GPS and/or Glenn Simpson.   Mueller claimed it was “outside my purview.”

While Anderson and Hertzog are tied to the case against Igor Danchenko, it appears the primary purpose of their being called as witnesses in the trial is not about Danchenko.  It appears John Durham presented them for testimony to ‘gently‘ and ‘diplomatically‘ expose the corrupt intent of the two-year Robert Mueller investigation.  However, before getting all excited about Durham exposing Mueller be aware: There’s an outrage trap in here!

To fully comprehend the dynamic, we first need a background context, then a review of the witness statements, then an understanding of the outrage trap.

(1) Background Context:

AFTER originally interviewing Danchenko in January and February 2017, in March the DOJ/FBI then reinterviewed him before refiling the second FISA renewal in April.   With Danchenko on their payroll they FBI did not need to worry about him undermining the Trump-Russia narrative or speaking the truth about the dossier.  This approach protected the fraudulently obtained title-1 surveillance warrant.  The surveillance warrant was renewed in April.

AFTER Robert Mueller is appointed special counsel in May 2017, with Danchenko on the FBI payroll and under control.  When Danchenko is interviewed on June 15, 2017, he is being interviewed as part of the Mueller operation. Special Counsel Robert Mueller and Andrew Weissmann now submit the FISA application for another renewal on June 29, 2017.  The fraudulently obtained title-1 surveillance warrant was again renewed.

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It appears our friend Neil Oliver has the week off. So, we will visit another, albeit saltier, U.K. voice who is also grounded in pragmatic common sense.  Russell Brand recently discussed how “President Trump is Right” about the issues around the Ukraine war and the conflict with Russia.

Mr. Brand notes a few bold nuances that are mostly lost in the media conversation and uses his sarcastic humor to point out the current reality. WATCH:

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You often hear me talk about how financial pundits and economic analysts are disconnected from Main Street.  Today we get a prime example of that from the Wall Street Journal.

The topline of the WSJ article is essentially that people are not spending money on anything except essential goods (housing, energy, fuel, food, etc), which is somewhat of a ‘duh tell us something we don’t know‘ type article.   However, the analytical part of the article is where you find the insufferable disconnect.   Here’s one example:

[Data Point 1] “Gasoline prices dropped in September for the third month in a row, falling 4.9% from August.”  [Data Point 2] Sales at gasoline stations, a proxy for spending by car owners, declined 1.4% last month.” 

If gasoline dropped 4.9% in price, but sales only declined 1.4% that would indicate more physical gasoline was purchased at a lower price than the month before.   It’s not a hard concept to understand.

This is a retail sales reality even identified in the article itself, “Unlike many government reports, retail sales aren’t adjusted for inflation, so some swings reflect price changes rather than shifts in the amounts purchased.”

However, now look at this:  “Spending at restaurants and bars grew 0.5% in September from the prior month. But prices at restaurants grew 0.9% in the same month, according to a separate Labor Department report released Thursday, meaning that consumers are getting less for their spending.”

No, that’s not what this means.

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Folks, I’m not trying to bust on Ron DeSantis, I’m just highlighting the dynamic in the background to include the political players and deep connected GOP club operatives.  If the truth makes me a critic, then so be it; but I’m not going to play the pretending game.  Quite frankly, I’m tired of it.

Ron DeSantis is backed by the same assembly of political insiders, donors, corporations and financial backers that supported Jeb Bush.  The professionally republican class know what they have in DeSantis, and he is brand organized, packaged & managed to deliver on their intents.

Former Speaker of the House Paul Ryan is as dialed in to the GOP club system as it gets.  Ryan’s brass nameplate is rivetted to one of the select mahogany chairs at the club table.

Speaking Wednesday at the Robin Hood conference before billionaires Steve Cohen and Paul Tudor Jones went on stage, Paul Ryan noted the GOP 2024 nominee will be “someone other than Donald Trump.”

According to a recording of his talk, Ryan named Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, and South Carolina Senator Tim Scott as his three favorites. {source} DeSantis fighting Disney was “really good for him, from a political perspective,” Ryan said.

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In this brief segment on fall harvest inflation, NBC notes consumer prices for food stuffs continue increasing regardless of the economic action by the Biden administration. The reason is very simple and is outlined within the segment by Jacob Goebbert, the Goebbert’s farm general manager.  WATCH:

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The current inflation is embedded in the cost of products, because it’s a supply side issue.

Financial “experts” can shout all day long about the fiscal policy (spending) being the origin of inflation (ie. demand side), they’re wrong.  Our current inflation cycle, most notably evident within massive increases in food prices, is a supply side issue created by the increased energy costs.  Full stop.  It’s a Biden policy outcome.

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Joe Biden’s economic and energy policies have resulted in another record matching former President Jimmy Carter.  The Social Security Administration (SSA) has announced an inflation driven increase in SAA benefits of 8.7% beginning in January 2023.  This is the largest cost of living adjustment in 40 years.

(Social Security Administration) – Approximately 70 million Americans will see a 8.7% increase in their Social Security benefits and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments in 2023. On average, Social Security benefits will increase by more than $140 per month starting in January.

Federal benefit rates increase when the cost-of-living rises, as measured by the Department of Labor’s Consumer Price Index (CPI-W). The CPI-W rises when inflation increases, leading to a higher cost-of-living. This change means prices for goods and services, on average, are higher. The cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) helps to offset these costs.

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The Bureau of Labor and Statistics released the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) today [DATA HERE].  The financial and business media call the continued rise of consumer inflation “unexpected,” however, the results are not a surprise to those who are not pretending.

This CNBC headline highlights the economic pretense still entrenched: “Inflation increased 0.4% in September, more than expected despite rate hikes.”  Those who are not pretending fully understand the economic dynamic, but you will not find reality expressed by the mainstream media.

FED rate hikes can only impact the demand side of the inflation issue. U.S (and global) inflation is NOT the result of excess demand. It has not been driven by demand for over a year.  The root cause of inflation is on the supply side. That root is grounded in the energy policy making everything entering the marketplace more expensive.

The historic rise in energy prices; the result of Joe Biden’s specific energy policy to limit oil, gas and coal as energy resources; are what have driven inflation throughout the economy.  The monetary policy (Fed policy) continues to pretend this dynamic does not exist.  The FED is trying to support the political policy, but the bloom is off the ruse.

Overall inflation increased 0.4% in September, leading to a result of 8.2% year over year.  Food and energy prices continue driving inflation, additionally core inflation (everything except food and energy) continues to be driven by the originating issue of extreme energy costs.

Everything costs more because energy costs more.  That is the reality of this inflation issue.

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