It appears our friend Neil Oliver has the week off. So, we will visit another, albeit saltier, U.K. voice who is also grounded in pragmatic common sense.  Russell Brand recently discussed how “President Trump is Right” about the issues around the Ukraine war and the conflict with Russia.

Mr. Brand notes a few bold nuances that are mostly lost in the media conversation and uses his sarcastic humor to point out the current reality. WATCH:

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You often hear me talk about how financial pundits and economic analysts are disconnected from Main Street.  Today we get a prime example of that from the Wall Street Journal.

The topline of the WSJ article is essentially that people are not spending money on anything except essential goods (housing, energy, fuel, food, etc), which is somewhat of a ‘duh tell us something we don’t know‘ type article.   However, the analytical part of the article is where you find the insufferable disconnect.   Here’s one example:

[Data Point 1] “Gasoline prices dropped in September for the third month in a row, falling 4.9% from August.”  [Data Point 2] Sales at gasoline stations, a proxy for spending by car owners, declined 1.4% last month.” 

If gasoline dropped 4.9% in price, but sales only declined 1.4% that would indicate more physical gasoline was purchased at a lower price than the month before.   It’s not a hard concept to understand.

This is a retail sales reality even identified in the article itself, “Unlike many government reports, retail sales aren’t adjusted for inflation, so some swings reflect price changes rather than shifts in the amounts purchased.”

However, now look at this:  “Spending at restaurants and bars grew 0.5% in September from the prior month. But prices at restaurants grew 0.9% in the same month, according to a separate Labor Department report released Thursday, meaning that consumers are getting less for their spending.”

No, that’s not what this means.

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Folks, I’m not trying to bust on Ron DeSantis, I’m just highlighting the dynamic in the background to include the political players and deep connected GOP club operatives.  If the truth makes me a critic, then so be it; but I’m not going to play the pretending game.  Quite frankly, I’m tired of it.

Ron DeSantis is backed by the same assembly of political insiders, donors, corporations and financial backers that supported Jeb Bush.  The professionally republican class know what they have in DeSantis, and he is brand organized, packaged & managed to deliver on their intents.

Former Speaker of the House Paul Ryan is as dialed in to the GOP club system as it gets.  Ryan’s brass nameplate is rivetted to one of the select mahogany chairs at the club table.

Speaking Wednesday at the Robin Hood conference before billionaires Steve Cohen and Paul Tudor Jones went on stage, Paul Ryan noted the GOP 2024 nominee will be “someone other than Donald Trump.”

According to a recording of his talk, Ryan named Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, and South Carolina Senator Tim Scott as his three favorites. {source} DeSantis fighting Disney was “really good for him, from a political perspective,” Ryan said.

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In this brief segment on fall harvest inflation, NBC notes consumer prices for food stuffs continue increasing regardless of the economic action by the Biden administration. The reason is very simple and is outlined within the segment by Jacob Goebbert, the Goebbert’s farm general manager.  WATCH:

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The current inflation is embedded in the cost of products, because it’s a supply side issue.

Financial “experts” can shout all day long about the fiscal policy (spending) being the origin of inflation (ie. demand side), they’re wrong.  Our current inflation cycle, most notably evident within massive increases in food prices, is a supply side issue created by the increased energy costs.  Full stop.  It’s a Biden policy outcome.

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Joe Biden’s economic and energy policies have resulted in another record matching former President Jimmy Carter.  The Social Security Administration (SSA) has announced an inflation driven increase in SAA benefits of 8.7% beginning in January 2023.  This is the largest cost of living adjustment in 40 years.

(Social Security Administration) – Approximately 70 million Americans will see a 8.7% increase in their Social Security benefits and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments in 2023. On average, Social Security benefits will increase by more than $140 per month starting in January.

Federal benefit rates increase when the cost-of-living rises, as measured by the Department of Labor’s Consumer Price Index (CPI-W). The CPI-W rises when inflation increases, leading to a higher cost-of-living. This change means prices for goods and services, on average, are higher. The cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) helps to offset these costs.

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The Bureau of Labor and Statistics released the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) today [DATA HERE].  The financial and business media call the continued rise of consumer inflation “unexpected,” however, the results are not a surprise to those who are not pretending.

This CNBC headline highlights the economic pretense still entrenched: “Inflation increased 0.4% in September, more than expected despite rate hikes.”  Those who are not pretending fully understand the economic dynamic, but you will not find reality expressed by the mainstream media.

FED rate hikes can only impact the demand side of the inflation issue. U.S (and global) inflation is NOT the result of excess demand. It has not been driven by demand for over a year.  The root cause of inflation is on the supply side. That root is grounded in the energy policy making everything entering the marketplace more expensive.

The historic rise in energy prices; the result of Joe Biden’s specific energy policy to limit oil, gas and coal as energy resources; are what have driven inflation throughout the economy.  The monetary policy (Fed policy) continues to pretend this dynamic does not exist.  The FED is trying to support the political policy, but the bloom is off the ruse.

Overall inflation increased 0.4% in September, leading to a result of 8.2% year over year.  Food and energy prices continue driving inflation, additionally core inflation (everything except food and energy) continues to be driven by the originating issue of extreme energy costs.

Everything costs more because energy costs more.  That is the reality of this inflation issue.

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The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released the September wage report [DATA HERE] delivering worse economic news for workers.

Real wages are dropping at a historic rate as inflation continues to rise and as a result wages buy less.

[BLS] “Real average hourly earnings decreased 3.0 percent, seasonally adjusted, from September 2021 to September 2022. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.9 percent in the average workweek resulted in a 3.8-percent decrease in real average weekly earnings over this period.” (link)

REAL WAGE CHART:

As the Biden economic/energy policy and Federal Reserve monetary policy merge together, the economy shrinks.  As the economy shrinks, fewer goods and services are purchased.  As less consumer goods are purchased, employment hours drop.  As employment hours drop, wages decline.

Declining wages combined with increased inflation forms the perfect storm against middle-class and working-class families.  This dynamic means lowered income and higher prices for essential goods and services like food, fuel, energy and housing.  It’s not difficult to see why this is happening.

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The “Producer Price Index” (PPI) is essentially the tracking of wholesale prices at three stages: Origination (commodity), Intermediate (processing), and then Final (to wholesale). Today, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released September price data [Available Here] showing another 8.5% increase year-over-year in Final Demand products at the wholesale level.  However, that’s not the bad news in this data.

While the overall September PPI was higher than expected at 0.4%, the Final Demand Producer Price for food products in September was a whopping 1.2% (14.4% annualized).

The BLS notes the driver by saying, “a major factor in the September increase in prices for final demand goods was a 15.7-percent advance in the index for fresh and dry vegetables. Prices for diesel fuel, residential natural gas, chicken eggs, home heating oil, and pork also moved higher.”

That’s a 15.7% increase in price, in one month, for fresh and dry vegetables.  Annualized that’s a rate of price increase of 188.4% for vegetables.   Remember the warning about farm costs (energy, fertilizer, fuel) driving field to fork inflation at harvest?  This is the leading edge of that third wave of food price increases.

I have modified BLS Table-2 to focus specifically on food costs.  The data is on left.

You will note that ‘row crops’ are the big drivers along with grain and seed products.  This is exactly as we predicted it would be because those specific farming costs are the ones with greatest increase from energy, fuel, fertilizer, weed and insect control, and diesel costs.

All of those higher costs have been growing in the fields and will now surface at harvest.   The higher farm costs transfer from the field to the fork via the food supply chain.  This is only the leading edge of the price increase.

In October 2021 we first warned of the food price increases coming in distinct waves.  The first was Jan, Feb and March 2022.   The second wave was May through July 2022.  This third wave will be bigger than the first two and starts arriving this month, October 2022.

People laughed at me when I said in late 2022 eggs were going to reach .50¢ EACH ($6/doz).

Well, in September the price of fresh eggs jumped 16.7% in a single month.  That’s an annualized rate of price increase for eggs over 200%.

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On February 24, 2022, Deputy National Security Advisor and Deputy Director of the National Economic Council, Daleep Singh, told the world what to expect about the U.S. and allied response to the war in Ukraine.  We called the white house strategy “World War Reddit.”  Here’s what Deputy NSA Singh said:

…”Strategic success in the 21st century is not about a physical land grab of territory; that’s what Putin has done.  In this century, strategic power is increasingly measured and exercised by economic strength, by technological sophistication and your story – who you are, what your values are; can you attract ideas and talent and goodwill? And on each of those measures, this will be a failure for Russia.”  ~ Deputy National Security Advisor Daleep Singh

Deputy National Security Advisor Daleep Singh boiled down geopolitical power to a cultural issue of social likeability.  Realize that what he said is the White House strategy leading our foreign policy.  That strategy is why the White House enlisted TikTok influencers for their Ukraine effort [link].  Remember, the State Dept is also leading this effort.  That is the context for this video. WATCH:

That’s why we called it World War Reddit eight months ago.  Where the State Dept was going with this “war” was obvious.

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The global economic cleaving continues.  Western allied nations are intentionally shrinking their economies to meet intentionally lowered energy production, ie ‘the green new deal’.  However, as the phrase is used, “managing the transition to the green energy economy” still requires the use of oil and gas no longer being generated within the same western allied nations.

As a result of this self-serving and ideological dynamic, any foreign oil provider who restricts the western nations from having access to cheap imported energy is viewed as an enemy.  The U.S. and western alliance forbid domestic development of oil, coal and gas, but the U.S. and western alliance still need oil, coal and gas.  This is the backdrop for Biden creating a dependency on foreign oil and being angry at Saudi Arabia for lowering production. {Direct Rumble Link}  WATCH:

The era of great pretending continues.

In this example Jake Tapper pretends not to know that Biden’s policy to block U.S. oil development has made the U.S. vulnerable to foreign oil decisions.  Saudi Arabia is the bad guy for limiting oil production, but Joe Biden is not confronted for limiting U.S. oil production.  It’s a media game of pretending not to know things.

In a semi related note, do not forget the connections.  NYT/Politico are used for FBI/DOJ narratives.  The Washington Post is used for CIA/IC narratives, and CNN is used for State Dept narratives.   The US State Department is conducting the war operations in Ukraine which is the core issue in the CNN interview above.

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