Polls are generally worthless; media polls even more so.  However, when the ultra far-left NPR produces a manipulated poll that can only get Joe Biden a 43% approval rating, you know things are bad… horrible for the White House occupant. [Polling Data Here]

The latest NPR/Marist poll shows Joe Biden with a 43% approval overall, and that’s with a proclaimed 85% of Democrats still sticking with him {insert eyeroll here}.   64% of Independents disapprove of Biden’s job performance and 95% of Republicans disapprove.

The polling was D+7 [pdf here] to achieve an overall 43% approval rating.

In related news perhaps Joe Biden will be campaigning for Liz Cheney.

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics report on August jobs is anticipated Friday. However, the numbers from the private sector ADP payroll review [Data Here] were released today, and the results are far below what was predicted.

According to the ADP payroll review, businesses hired a total of 374,000 workers, compared to the expectation of 600,000+ from the financial media.  The vast majority of jobs gained was in the ‘Service and Hospitality’ sector that added 201,000 jobs.

The total services sector added 329,000 jobs, while the goods-producing sector only gained 45,000 jobs. This result is reflective of an overall drop in consumer spending which has continually been identified in sales data from the past several months.

Consumers are being hit with massive inflation on food, fuel, energy and housing costs. As a result, they have pulled back from spending on durable goods, luxury products and other items now considered ‘non-essential.’

The service and hospitality sector shows job growth from new hires and returning workers as people start to travel, dine in restaurants and engage in other vacation activity.  Simultaneously, those same consumers are spending less on retail purchases. This pattern has been very consistent throughout the summer.

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The latest measure of consumer confidence [Data Here] reflects a continued trend, and the index drops well below expectations.  The Consumer Confidence Survey is a monthly report detailing “consumer attitude, buying intentions, vacation plans and consumer expectation for inflation, stock prices and interest rates.”

The index now stands at 113, a drop from last month when it was 125.  The decline in confidence is an outcome of workers and consumers feeling the impact of massive inflation from Joe Biden economic and monetary policies.   With gas and food prices climbing rapidly, it should not be a shock to see consumer confidence begin dropping; however, the financial analysts were caught off guard by the unexpected size of the drop.

According to Marketwatch, “Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a reading of 123.1”, a drop to 113 is a much more severe change in consumer confidence than expected.   The economists who get this stuff wrong repeatedly are inside the echo-chamber of Wall Street and the financial class.  There is a disconnect between those analysts and the real economy on Main Street; that’s why they are always surprised.

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Yesterday we shared that U.S. consumer spending unexpectedly dropped 1.1% in July [Source], and today the commerce department is reporting that U.S. housing starts unexpectedly dropped 7% in July [Source].   Stop me when you notice a trend…

The financial pundits continue to attribute these drops to supply chain issues, COVID impacts, material constraints and various ancillary factors that have nothing to do with the underlying and overarching issues – inflation and wages.

As long as skyrocketing food and fuel prices continue to impact the middle-class, forward looking purchasing decisions will be constrained.

We are in an economic era where working class family income priorities are focused on current day survival. “Food, fuel and energy price increases are changing consumer spending habits.  Non-essential purchases have stopped….. they haven’t slowed, they have stopped. ←Emphasize this because it is not yet showing up in the data lag.”  ~SD

Building permits have been issued, but we are in that period where speculative builders have noticed the consumer plateau and they have proactively stopped the home building process before they get caught upside-down with finished goods and no buyers.

WASHINGTON, Aug 18 (Reuters) – U.S. homebuilding fell more than expected in July, the latest sign that surging construction costs and home prices continued to constrain the housing market early in the third quarter.

The number of houses authorized for construction but not yet started last month was the third highest on record, indicating builders remained hesitant to undertake new projects.

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The U.S. Census Department releases retail sales data today showing a strong contraction in consumer spending for July [MSM LINK].  The out-of-touch financial pundits were looking for a 0.3% decline; however, the drop was four times greater with a contraction of 1.1% in spending.

“The slide in retail sales comes after Friday’s preliminary consumer sentiment report from the University of Michigan showed one of the largest drops on record, leading some strategists and economists to warn of downside risk to the sales data.” (link)

This should not be unexpected for those who read here.  Massive price inflation on essential goods is eating up wages.  Food, fuel and energy price increases are changing consumer spending habits.  Non-essential purchases have stopped….. they haven’t slowed, they have stopped. ←Emphasize this because it is not showing up yet in the data lag.

The data reflects that auto sales were the primary contributor to the decline in spending (-4.3%).  This should make sense to people because auto purchases are the largest general consumer purchase outside of home purchasing.

When purchase decisions are made by families; and food and fuel prices are skyrocketing; replacing a vehicle is not essential.  Auto sales are a key indicator of consumer confidence and income.

Overall inflation is the primary driver.  Real wages are declining (wages – inflation), and disposable income is dropping quickly.  Americans need to start talking very deliberately about what is about to happen.  CTH predicted this and has been walking through the visible outcomes as each set of new data surfaces {SEARCH BOX}.  Nothing happening right now is unforeseen or not easily understandable.

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During our previous discussion on historic, predictable and purposeful food inflation, on August 13th CTH noted “BigAg has likely already made deals for increases in government welfare payments (EBT and Foodstamps, WIC etc.). BigAg lobbies congress for higher reimbursement rates so they can raise the prices of food and export domestic product to other nations. Food assistance payments increase, and BigAg benefits. In essence, BigAg takes the fed food subsidies and fattens their profit margin. Then, they payback the politicians. It’s a circle of money.“….

If you know how the game is rigged, it’s actually easy to predict the background.  Today, exactly on cue, several media outlets are now reporting that Joe Biden is going to increase the amount of food stamp assistance by 25% per recipient, and expand the program.

New York Times – WASHINGTON — The Biden administration has revised the nutrition standards of the food stamp program and prompted the largest permanent increase to benefits in the program’s history, a move that will give poor people more power to fill their grocery carts but add billions of dollars to the cost of a program that feeds one in eight Americans.

Under rules to be announced on Monday and put in place in October, average benefits will rise more than 25 percent from prepandemic levels. All 42 million people in the program will receive additional aid. The move does not require congressional approval, and unlike the large pandemic-era expansions, which are starting to expire, the changes are intended to last. (read more)

This announcement is actually revealing in more ways than just the predictability of it.

♦ First, the 25% permanent increase is an admission by the Biden administration that food price inflation is here to stay.  The massive scale of the increase also highlights the actual reality of how much food prices are rising.   This massive and permanent increase directly undercuts the previous White House and Biden claims that inflation was “temporary”, “transitional” and likely to end soon.

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There’s hypocrisy, there’s double speak, there’s stupid decisions based on politics…. and then there’s this level of Biden hypocrisy and stupidity that cannot be adequately encapsulated.   President Trump’s energy production policy made the U.S.A. energy independent.  We were actually exporting oil and gas to other nations.

However, in the previous six months Joe Biden has:  (1) Shut down oil and energy development in ANWAR {LINK} which would increase use of the Alaska pipeline. (2) Blocked the Keystone Pipeline from completion {LINK} (3) Banned energy development on federal lands {LINK}. (4) Shut down the sale of energy leases in the Gulf of Mexico {LINK}. and (5) Blocked energy development in Texas, Louisiana, New Mexico and Alabama {LINK}  … As a direct and immediate consequence, gas and fuel prices have skyrocketed.  The price of Unleaded Regular Gasoline is now up over 60% from 2020.  Now THIS:

The price of gasoline is directly attributable to Joe Biden policy in his war against oil.  However, now that Americans are being crushed with massive prices for gasoline; and Biden is getting massive heat for his ridiculous position; this insufferable administration has the absolute nerve to ask Russia and mid-east oil producers, OPEC, to increase their production. {LINK}  You cannot make this up…

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Repost from June by Request – Several people have written to CTH for an economic review of our current status. Below this post are two primary precursor articles [Primary One and Primary Two] which outline the economic dynamic in play, and how we can look forward with accuracy to what is likely to happen. Despite the deflective talking points by the professional financial pundits, this massive spike in inflation is entirely predictable due to Biden economic policy and Biden monetary policy.

Keep in mind, the FED already said in April they would “support inflation”, that’s because – while they will not say it openly, they know there’s no way to stop it. The massive inflation is a direct result of the multinational agenda of the Biden administration; it’s a feature not a flaw, and it has nothing whatsoever to do with COVID. Also keep in mind the first group to admit what is to come are banks, specifically Bank of America, because the monetary policy is the cause.

There’s no way around this. Despite the pundit and financial class selling a counter-narrative, home prices will crash and unemployment will go up. I know this is directly against the current talking points, but the statistical reality is clear. CTH was the first place that said months ago that new home sales will plummet, that is starting to happen right now. There’s no way for it not to happen, the big picture tells us why.

You might remember, when President Trump initiated tariffs against China (steel, aluminum and more), Southeast Asia (product specific), Europe (steel, aluminum and direct products), Canada (steel, aluminum, lumber and dairy specifics), the financial pundits screamed at the top of their lungs that consumer prices were going to skyrocket. They didn’t. CTH knew they wouldn’t because essentially those trading partners responded in the exact same way the U.S. did decades ago when the import/export dynamic was reversed.

Trump’s massive, and in some instances targeted, import tariffs against China, SE Asia, Canada and the EU not only did not increase prices, the prices of the goods in the U.S. actually dropped. Trump’s policies led the largest deflation in consumer prices in decades. At the same time, Trump’s domestic economic policies drove employment and wages higher than any time in the past forty years. With Trump’s policies we were in an era where job growth was strong, wages were rising and consumer prices were falling.  The net result was more disposable income for the middle class, more demand for stuff, and ultimately that’s why the U.S. economy was so strong.

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Florida Governor Ron DeSantis delivered a statement about the future of Florida today while visiting Cape Coral on the Southwest coast.  During his remarks, the governor highlighted his support for parent’s rights, taking the position that parents should be the ones making decisions for their children on masks, schools and vaccines, not government.

Governor DeSantis promised Florida residents there will be no lockdowns, no mandates, no restrictions and no school closures.  Additionally, the governor urged all local communities to follow common sense science and said he will soon issue an order allowing parents or guardians to choose whether their child wears a mask in schools.

“As of today, very few [school districts] are requiring it. Nevertheless, we have a lot of push from the CDC and others to make every single person, kids and staff have to wear masks all day,” DeSantis said during the event. “That would be a huge mistake.”  WATCH:

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The Florida Education Association (FEA), the largest teacher union in the state, said they will fight the Florida governor on all measures.  The teachers union is considering not going back to work with in-person teaching, and has vowed not to give up control of the (k-12) children to the parents. “Governor DeSantis continues to think that Tallahassee knows best what all Floridians need,” FEA President Andrew Spar said in a statement.  “We reject that kind of thinking” Spar continued.

“Instead, we ask Governor DeSantis to allow all Florida’s citizens to have a voice by empowering the elected leaders of cities, counties and school districts to make health and safety decisions locally based on their unique needs and circumstances,” Spar said.  Emphasizing how the union feels they have more power in the blue and leftist urban area, and they have vowed to fight any conservative effort in the state to undermine the teachers financial interests and control over Florida students.

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One of the most significant aspects to President Trump’s administration was the trade and economic team he assembled to drive the “America-First” Main Street resurgence we saw on display throughout the four years in office.  Readers will note, there was no turnover of personnel in the trade and economic team, because they were the priority, the fulcrum of the Trump Doctrine. One of the key people driving the America-First agenda was Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross.

President Trump’s trade and economic team were laser focused on bringing back domestic Main Street economics as the foundation of our economy.  That approach put Wall Street multinationals at a policy disadvantage.   No-one without an interest in U.S. economic security was allowed a seat at the Trump table.

Policies and practices that supported made in the USA domestic manufacturing and industry were the prism through which all actions taken by the Trump administration were viewed.  The massive growth in U.S. jobs and wages was a result.  We also had an unprecedented period of deflationary pricing.  Things were, well, economically astoundingly good for American workers.

As a direct consequence China, Europe and ASEAN partners who had their foothold in the U.S. economy were weakened.  This made the U.S. (Wall Street) multinational corporations -who rely on outsourcing, offshoring and raw material export- very angry.  The exfiltration of American wealth was halted by Trump.  There were trillions at stake, and many enemies were made because of the America-First agenda.

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