Fed Governor Christopher Waller appeared on CNBC to announce we have reached peak inflation, and things will moderate from here.  All of these fed moves are political moves, not monetary policy-based moves. Here’s the thing they will never admit to the non-institutional investor.

The fed has been painfully slow to raise interest rates on purpose.  They did not make a mistake.  The reason for their delay is they needed to wait for the beginning of the first 2021 inflation wave to cycle through before they raised interest rates.  It’s a game of mirrors that almost no one sees.  WATCH:

The rate of inflation will drop once the statistical year-over-year comparisons reach the same moment in the prior year.  The fed will raise interest rates in May and then use the June inflation rate decline as a false talking point to highlight how their policy is working.  They wait for May, because they need to wait for the calendar, nothing else.  Inflation is measured as the percentage of change from the prior year.  By waiting until the inflation is measured against the first wave of rising prices, it will give the illusion of a decline in inflation.

So that’s why they waited.  But here’s the worse part….

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The “Producer Price Index” (PPI) is essentially the tracking of wholesale prices at three stages: Origination (commodity), Intermediate (processing), and then Final (to wholesale). Today, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released March price data [Available Here] showing a dramatic 11.2% increase year-over-year in Final Demand products at the wholesale level.  This is the fifth consecutive month with the highest rate of inflation the PPI ever recorded.

The single month increase in wholesale prices of 2.3% was driven by inflation built into the supply chain at every level that shows up in the final wholesale price.  Those price increases then get passed along to consumers along with the additional costs for warehousing, transportation and delivery.  I modified Table-A (FINAL DEMAND) to take out some of the noise.

Wholesale prices of goods jumped 2.3 percent in March, and the wholesale price of food products jumped 2.4 percent.  The total demand inflation compared to last year is 11.2 percent, the highest rate ever recorded since the PPI tracking was first started.

The total final demand monthly calculation (1.4%) is lower than the final demand goods (2.3%), because final demand services are offsetting.  You may remember the discussion/analysis about prices beginning to stabilize after this month due to a contraction in demand for goods and services.  I see support for that thesis within this data.

The three phases of wholesale product creation: (1) origination, (2) intermediate, and (3) final, cycle through the economic analysis in reverse chronological order.  Roughly speaking, the flow of goods quantified is done in 30-day sequences.  Final demand this month is comparing to final demand in March 2021.  The intermediate demand goods this month will become final demand goods next month (April).

The rate of inflation behind this set of final demand goods is beginning to soften.  See Table B, Intermediate goods.  Again, modified to take out the noise:

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Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen delivered a remarkable speech today outlining “the future of the international order,” in the aftermath of the global pandemic and the current conflict in Ukraine.  Within the speech, Yellen outlines the priorities of the United States according to the current administration and the international financial mechanisms that she controls.

The speech is quite jaw-dropping when you consider the nature of her position, and the fact that she is an unelected bureaucrat within government.

As you read the speech {Transcript Here}, keep in mind she is not the President of the United States, or the commissioner of the New World Order, yet she presents herself as authorized to control the geopolitical constructs of the Biden administration.  The hubris is astounding.

Secretary Yellen: outlines the goals and objectives of the international order, predicts a concerning global famine, warns against the cleaving of financial mechanisms for international trade as an outcome of the Ukraine conflict, threatens any nation who does not support the western political alliance and outlines the need for decarbonization of the global economy.

Yellen expresses all of these powers from the position of a U.S. Treasury Secretary – the equivalent of a government financial minister.  Speech highlights with emphasis mine:

(Transcript) – […] “Russia’s horrific conduct has violated international law, including core tenets of the UN Charter—challenging countries to demonstrate where they stand with respect to the international order that has been built since World War II.  Therefore, when I speak about a changed global outlook, I’m not just talking about growth forecasts.  I’m also referring to our conception of international cooperation going forward.  

I will focus my remarks today on the significance of international cooperation in this current environment and for our future.

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I want to be very careful here, because multiple people have sent me a version of this outline asking for opinion. Basically, is David Friedberg correct?

The discussion in this video surrounds farming as a construct of global caloric creation.  Meaning, with all that is taking place in the farming system on a global scale, will there be dramatic food shortages?  It is a complex issue.  In the larger picture what Friedberg, a former scientist within the Monsanto organization, explains is accurate; however, I would inject some nuanced dissension as it relates to U.S. farm production specifically.

The first four and a half minutes of the video are an accurate representation of the global state of farming, albeit with a little too much weight on the Ukraine-Russia aspect.  There was a preexisting issue long before Russia entered the picture. The price of fertilizer was already skyrocketing, Russia-Ukraine has made that already looming issue, worse.  WATCH First 04:30 minutes:

https://youtu.be/1xtGTVWrw-M

The problem described, about farmers deciding not to plant, is weighted more heavily in less developed countries where access to the financing for a future crop is not stable {AP Article Here}.  For most of the developed world farming will continue; it is the end product where prices will reflect the additional costs of bringing a harvest to market.  Bottom line, as the futures market is showing, crops will be more expensive.

There is going to be a problem in the same areas of the world where food stability and dependency is already an issue.  Yes, the convergence of current farm challenges will make those areas more vulnerable.  We do not know, to what extent.

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Joe Biden was in Iowa today attempting to justify the massive Bidenflation his economic policies have created.  As a result of Biden energy, fiscal and monetary policy, rising oil and gasoline prices are contributing to pre-existing inflation and crushing the U.S. economy.

As part of the White House plan to blame anyone and everyone except the Joe Biden policy agenda, Biden took to the microphones to blame Russian President Vladimir Putin.  However, reflecting the synergy of human and avian opinion, a bird flew overhead and pooped on him.  WATCH:

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This is not going to be news to CTH readers and intellectually honest analysts.  The Bureau of Labor and Statistics has released the March consumer pricing data [DATA HERE] showing the recent surge in energy, gasoline and food costs that we have all felt.

The monthly increase of 1.3% brings the annual rate of inflation to 8.5 percent year-over-year.  However, the details tell the exact story we have been outlining for well over six months.   This is the second wave of inflation being recorded.  Grocery store prices (food at home), energy prices, and gasoline prices are all driving the inflation rate. [BLS Table 1]

Again, I modified Table-1 to take out the noise.  The data shows what we have felt for the past two months.  Working class families are feeling the pinch as their wages cannot keep pace with the increase in prices on products that are a priority.  Food, housing, gasoline, energy.

If we were using the old CPI method for analysis, current inflation would be well above 20%.

That said, there are issues also inherent and visible in the data for the non-food and energy segments, what I would call the durable goods side.  First, we are seeing the beginning of the durable good contraction getting quantified as we have previously discussed.   The prices for used vehicles, electronics, appliances and other non-critical durable goods are now flatlining, or even dropping in price.

Every indication within the economy indicates this is being caused by a demand contraction.  People are not purchasing durable goods because their disposable income is gone.  This lack of demand also shows up in wage rate suppression.  Despite high employment, wages are not rising – in part because there is excess productivity in the durable good economy.

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She did it again. Just like in February, when Psaki (seemingly out of the blue) gave a weird proactive statement about bad economic data that was going to be released the following day {LINK}. Earlier this afternoon White House spokesperson Jen Psaki gives another proactive justification for even worse inflation data that is about to be released from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics tomorrow.

In this brief soundbite, Psaki says the March inflation data that is going to be released tomorrow is going to show “Putin’s price hikes” on U.S. consumers.  However, even within the framework of her false justification, she attempts to blame Putin for gas price increases in January, when the Russian military operations did not start until February 24th.  The inflation news is going to be really bad tomorrow. How bad?  WATCH:

https://youtu.be/tNBvUq8e2Ko

None of this will come as a surprise to CTH readers.  We noted in the February inflation data (released in March), that things were going to be much worse in the April release.  The reason was simple, the massive gas price increases were not yet matriculated in the February data, and the massive food inflation was not yet captured by the USDA component. All of that preceded Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  None of it has anything to do with Vladimir Putin.

The inflation data that will be released tomorrow is the first visible data assembly of the second inflation wave now upon us.  Remember, inflation data lags behind the reality of the price increases. What the BLS will show tomorrow is the price results from the last half of Feb through the half of the month of March.  It will likely show the largest single month inflation increase in modern history.

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The Financial Times is reporting {link here, paywall} that Finland and Sweden are likely to join the NATO alliance.  According to the reporting {also in Reuters} the application from Finland is expected in June and Sweden shortly thereafter.

Adding Sweden and Finland would be a major escalation in both the western conflict and provocations against Russia, obviously, justified by western leaders as a consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  However, in the big analysis, the global financial system appears to be the larger issue.

From the outset of the Russian military operation into Ukraine, it was obvious the western alliance was intent on an almost ‘all or nothing‘ confrontation with Russia. The only limits to what the alliance was willing to do was trigger a nuclear showdown through direct military action against Russia to protect the non-NATO country of Ukraine.

The NATO and western government response was a fast system of financial sanctions intended to cripple the Russian economy.  However, Russia responded to those actions with countermoves on the trade front, beginning to establish the first ever non-Euro and non-dollar-based trade system.  In essence, a financial trading system created by the BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa).

Therefore, if we think about the current status of geopolitics and international finance, the NATO response now involves a priority of controlling and protecting the previously established financial structures of global trade.  A NATO effort to avoid the cleaving is now underway as an outcome of the sanctions against Russia.

As one person put it, “This is a fight for the dollar as reserve currency. Imagine trying to maintain our debt when nobody wants treasury notes. If BRICS succeed, US collapses as an economic power. On the other hand, if we win, Klaus Schwab’s nutty world wins.”  I tend to agree with this outlook because it parallels something we see domestically in the U.S.

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CBS has released their latest YouGov Poll [DATA HERE], again showing the top priorities of the American people are not even on the radar of the American government.  The DC beltway disconnect is stark.

Interestingly, the recent survey of Pennsylvania voters done by Reuters, turned up this almost identical priority list, only Rusia/Ukraine did not even appear in the top five.  The economy, inflation, gas prices, crime and immigration are the top five issues across the board, in almost every poll.

Russia/Ukraine is a non-existent issue. Yet, that is the actionable priority -with questionable importance for U.S. security interests- for a totally out of touch government and media to focus on.  Sending $14 billion to help Ukraine’s border fight, while our borders are crushed with illegal aliens, is a sharp stick in the eye for every American.

Unfortunately, our opinion doesn’t matter, and frustratingly, the people using Biden as a tool to achieve their goals do not have any concern whatsoever about political fallout.  Biden is a disposable tool for a program of rapid single-term advancement of the democrat-communist agenda.

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As expected, in the France election no candidate achieved 50% of the vote.  That sets up a runoff election fifteen days from now to determine who will be the next president.  Reuters Article Here – Guardian/MSM Article Here

In the primary race the final results are not yet announced; however, current President Emmanuel Macron has approximately 28% of the vote, and challenger Marine Le Pen has around 24% of the vote.  No other candidate was close enough to change the top two outcome.

In the head-to-head matchup, the race is essentially tied, well within the margin of polling error (as above).  Interestingly, Le Pen has flipped the 18-to-34-year age bracket and now holds majority support in the younger voting bloc.  Perhaps, due to young French citizens feeling the outcomes of the professional political left thirsting for unilateral power during COVID.

There was around a 65% voter turnout according to most early analysts.  The general election is essentially a coin toss based on the current polling.  The final vote to determine the winner will take place April 24th.  It will be a very closely watched event by leaders around the world.  A Le Pen victory would be seismic in the world of politics, akin to Trump’s victory in 2016, and that outcome is a strong possibility.

The professional political left are apoplectic.

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