CTH has covered the origin of food inflation since we first raised the alarms in the spring of 2020.  A confluence of events starting with the fracturing of the food supply chain (shutting down restaurants, hospitality venues, schools, cafeterias, etc), created the initial major problem.  Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) sold at retail stores could not keep up with demand after 50% of the food supply system was shut down.

Within the U.S. retail food supply chain (350+ million people), manufacturing CPG products relies on a system of staying one to two harvest cycles ahead of demand.  However, when restaurants and fresh food venues were closed, very quickly frozen, bulk stored and siloed U.S. food storage systems, the storage needed for CPG products, were emptied.

Long after the time when all food distribution was reopened, the shortages of CPG products continued. You saw the result with empty shelves at the supermarket.  It takes a long time (years) for those inventories to refill.

We warned of this in 2020 and then followed the predictable outcome in 2021 and 2022.

When Joe Biden then shut down the U.S. energy production system in early 2021, the massive increases in energy costs -and the shortages of natural gas- became fuel on the inflationary fire of CPG goods.  Again, in October 2021 CTH noted that retail prices were going to rise quickly, and they did.

Throughout 2022 food prices have risen dramatically as the food distribution and processing system was now under pressure from all sides.  The shortage of inputs (to refill food storage and warehousing needs) combined with the much higher costs to generate those inputs -the direct result of the exploding energy costs- created massive inflation pressure.  The pricing result we are seeing now (third wave of food inflation) is exactly what we have stated, discussed and predicted for more than two years.

While all food costs are skyrocketing, the prices for manufactured or processed food are much higher than the price increases for fresh food.

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The extreme vitriol against the recent OPEC+ decision to cut oil output, specifically the extreme Biden anger toward Saudi Arabia, now takes on additional context as the New York Times writes about a secretly negotiated deal between the Kingdom and White House officials that was never executed.

As the Times reveals, over the summer the White House thought their team had negotiated a deal with Saudi Arabia for increased oil production that would have lowered oil and gasoline costs in the U.S, strategically timed before the midterm election.

With that agreement in mind, Joe Biden went to Saudi Arabia a few months ago. However, as the western alliance began putting more pressure on Russia and increased the activity within Ukraine, the Saudi’s aligned with OPEC+ to support Russia via lowered oil outputs.  The White House felt double-crossed, hence the fury.

(New York Times) –  WASHINGTON — As President Biden was planning a politically risky trip to Saudi Arabia this summer, his top aides thought they had struck a secret deal to boost oil production through the end of the year — an arrangement that could have helped justify breaking a campaign pledge to shun the kingdom and its crown prince.  It didn’t work out that way.

Mr. Biden went through with the trip. But earlier this month, Saudi Arabia and Russia steered a group of oil-producing countries in voting to slash oil production by two million barrels per day, the opposite of the outcome the administration thought it had secured as the Democratic Party struggles to deal with inflation and high gas prices heading into the November elections.

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As inflation bites the working-class hard, U.S. household savings rates continue dropping fast.  When combined with drops in home values the loss in home equity compounds the issue.  American families are getting poorer much more quickly under Joe Biden’s economic policies.

According to the Wall Street Journal home values dropped in August at their highest monthly rate of decrease since 2011 {link}.  In part this is driven by higher mortgage rates which are pricing home buyers out of the market.  However, the regional impact is worse on the west coast than east or southeast.

[…] The housing market has slowed abruptly this year due to a rapid increase in mortgage rates, which has raised borrowing costs for home buyers and pushed many prospective buyers out of the market. Existing-home sales fell for eight straight months through September. (link)

As noted in The Daily Mail review of a similar analysis: “It’s Northern California that leads the way, with San Jose experiencing a drop of 10.8 percent since September, followed by San Francisco at 8.5 percent, then it’s Seattle at 8.2 percent, Denver at 5.8 percent, San Diego 5.2 percent, Portland 5.1 percent, Las Vegas 4.8 percent and Phoenix at 4.4 percent.” (link)

What we are seeing is a confluence of events, generally brought about by the outcomes of larger Biden administration policy.  Massive increases in energy costs are the result of energy policy; those increases are fueling inflation from the supply side on food, fuel, electricity, home heating etc.  Simultaneously, Fed monetary policy is driving consumer demand down.  The recession debate continues amid the economic think-tanks while Main Street outcomes show we have been in a recessionary period all year.

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As expected, the poster boy for the World Economic Forum’s climate change agenda, Rishi Sunak, has been selected and installed by the British Conservative Party to be the U.K Prime Minister.

Earlier today, U.K. Brexit leader Nigel Farage gave his opinion.  WATCH:

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The moves are so predictable… {See Here}… well, it would be funny if the consequences were not so severe.

With Prime Minister Liz Truss announcing her resignation there was considerable discussion of former PM Boris Johnson returning to run for the job.  However, as an outcome of his conversations with other “conservatives” in British politics, Johnson has withdrawn his name.  This sets up… wait for it…. the World Economic Forum’s groomed U.K. climate change “conservative” to take the job.  This stuff is so predictable, it’s beyond funny.

(Via CBS) – Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said in a statement Sunday that he would not seek the leadership of the Conservative Party, leaving former Treasury chief Rishi Sunak as the frontrunner to take over after Liz Truss hastily announced her exit last week, after just 45 days at the helm. (read more)

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak together with King Charles III….  What could possibly go wrong?  LOL

Sometimes people make fun of me for cementing my views in the reality of a big picture perspective.  I don’t care.  It’s not a conspiracy theory to see how the alignment of western leadership interests are shaped by the control of the people and institutions who manipulate the illusion of choice.

Liz Truss was dispatched because she dared, in the smallest way, to accept the reality of what created the ‘Build Back Better‘ U.K. economic crisis.  She was always going to be replaced by someone who was willing and able to retain their fullest devotion to the grand pretense.  That’s where Rishi Sunak steps in.  Please watch the video below, you’ll see:

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All around this western world of ours we find ourselves surrounded by economic pretenders and financial pundits, perhaps intentionally stuck, using old school economic theory to analyze a new era in government manipulation of the economy.  It’s maddening… but at least we do not need to pretend on these pages.

Milton Friedman was not wrong at the time he stated that inflation is driven by monetary policy.  Print money and the value of it diminishes; this is true.

However, we are in an era that Friedman never foresaw, nor could he fathom, where the structural policy of government is created to intentionally shrink economic activity.

Purposefully reducing energy resources and then purposefully reducing economic activity to match the diminished level of energy available, is the underlying purpose of what the western globalists call “Building Back Better.”   The claim of “climate change” is the justification for their action.  Too few people truly understand this, and as a result we see false arguments about the root of inflation being presented.

The ROOT CAUSE of modern western inflation is the intentional shortage of traditional energy resources (coal, oil, gas), which is driving up the price of the everything attached to the use of energy, everything.  It is a supply side causation with policymakers trying to forcibly shrink energy demand.   Quit making excuses in any other direction.

As energy products skyrocket, everything attached to the energy product rises in price – that is a supply side issue.  Yes, if you wish to be obtuse and support the justification from the policymakers, you can -if you chose to join the pretending- argue that demand for energy is the cause. However, demand for energy is far more consistent than the reductions in the supply that have been created.

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For his monologue this week (¹sorry, no transcript), U.K pundit Neil Oliver notes the vulnerabilities of the globalist elite when the people finally reach the point of having had quite enough.

Using the famous Mike Tyson quote, “everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face,” Oliver notes the scheme and grand designs of the globalists may seem omnipotent, but only so long as it takes for the angered masses to assemble in common resolve.  The elites are vulnerable despite their seemingly endless efforts to promote themselves as untouchable.  Their weakness is their limited number.

Oliver takes his position to a new level of indignation as he now describes the conniving western political class as soulless, rotten and seemingly willing to promote evil enterprise in their efforts to retain control.  Indeed, their current efforts to control the masses – through energy restrictions while they worship at the false altar of ‘climate change – they are fully exposed for their exploitative intent given the aftermath of their two years of COVID schemes, lies and visible madness.  WATCH:

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¹The transcript is normally available on GBNews. However, it is not available today.  Coincidentally, or not, the corporate Fox News YouTube site has not shared a single Tucker Carlson monologue for the last two weeks.

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Elevate far enough and you return to that same place where the international finance and banking system is making decisions on politics.  The western alliance is ‘all-in‘ on the goal of using climate change as the entry point to the carbon trading system.  No one is going to be allowed to challenge this agenda.

British Prime Minister Liz Truss has resigned after only 44 days in office, driven mostly by the financial system reaction to her proposal that taxes should be lowered in order to stimulate the economy.  In the big picture, the years of slowly advancing progressive politics in the U.K. has culminated in a political system that is only manageable by a leader who retains a globalist financial outlook and a climate change policy framework.

Prime Minister Truss’s economic agenda, lower taxes – stimulate growth, in combination with an emergency effort to quickly develop oil, coal and natural gas exploitation (fracking etc.) in order to avoid the escalating European energy crisis, was just too much and too radical.  The financial markets responded negatively, the World Economic Forum (WEF)was unhappy, and western alliance leaders were critical, including Joe Biden:

Biden called Prime Minster Truss’s proposed tax cuts “a mistake” earlier this week. Biden said he “wasn’t the only one” who thought as much, indicating he had talked to other western alliance leaders who thought the same.

“I wasn’t the only one that thought it was a mistake. I think that the idea of cutting taxes on the super-wealthy at a time when … I disagree with the policy, but it’s up to Britain to make that judgment, not me,” Biden said.  With domestic opposition and international pressure, it became clear that Liz Truss was going to collapse.  She did.

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(Daily Mail) – British Prime Minister Liz Truss resigned today after just 44 days in office, sending the country’s parliament into chaos and making it the laughing stock of the world.

Truss only took over from former leader Boris Johnson on September 6 after winning an internal Conservative Party leadership contest. She quickly lost the faith of the party to such an extent that she was deemed unfit to lead last night in a wave of no confidence letters from colleagues.

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New England consists of six states in the US Northeast, Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont.  The states have been warned by regional ISO electricity providers for several years about their vulnerability if the winter weather is harsh and there is a significant increase in demand for home heating.  Those warnings are now multiplied by the massive price increases for natural gas.

Keep in mind as all these natural gas and LNG issues surface, the U.S. has been exporting natural gas to Europe as part of the Biden effort to subsidize the NATO effort against Russia.  Prices for natural gas have skyrocketed, and now shortages of the fuel source for energy production may create even bigger problems for New England.

[Via Zero Hedge] – […] The region’s power mix changes have left it increasingly reliant on international NatGas spot markets. State governors have asked US Energy Secretary Jennifer Graholm to waive the Jones Act and allow foreign-owned tankers to ship LNG from the US Gulf region. 

All of this has led to New England residents facing some of the highest electricity bills in years. Heating season is already underway. 

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I do not know how to describe this with the Through The Looking Glass absurdity it deserves.

The ability of financial media and national economists to suspend accepting current reality, while making claims about the possibilities for next year, is ridiculous. Ask me why this era of great economic pretending is underway, and I have no answer. The intellectual dishonesty is beyond my comprehension.

The first and second quarters of the U.S. economy showed negative Gross Domestic Product valuations (GDP). We just finished the third quarter (July, Aug, Sept) and the likelihood of another negative GDP is high. Production is down, demand is down, consumer spending is down, inventories are climbing, and the economy is contracting. We are in a literal, technical and structural recession. Considering the Q1 and Q2 outcomes, we have been in a recession all year.

The Wall Street Journal publishes an article citing several notable economists who are putting the likelihood of a 2023 recession at 63%.

(WSJ) – […] On average, economists put the probability of a recession in the next 12 months at 63%, up from 49% in July’s survey. It is the first time the survey pegged the probability above 50% since July 2020, in the wake of the last short but sharp recession.

Their forecasts for 2023 are increasingly gloomy. Economists now expect gross domestic product to contract in the first two quarters of the year, a downgrade from the last quarterly survey, whereby they penciled in mild growth.

[…] Forecasters have ratcheted up their expectations for a recession because they increasingly doubt the Fed can keep raising rates to cool inflation without inducing higher unemployment and an economic downturn. Some 58.9% of economists said they think the Fed will raise interest rates too much and cause unnecessary economic weakness, up from 45.6% in July. (read more)

They are analyzing a pending recession in 2023 without even admitting we are in a recession right now. AT THIS VERY MOMENT.  We have two consecutive negative quarters of economic growth behind us (another Q3 result pending), and these economists are discussing a recession “next year“?

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