The Commerce Department has released the first advanced estimate of retail sales and consumer spending for June. Core retail sales increased 0.7 percent last month (very strong), and 3.8 percent year-over-year; very strong retail sales.
Retail sales is an important component to the U.S. economy as more than two-thirds of our GDP is based from retail sales. In essence, one of the unique attributes to the U.S. economy is that we buy lots of stuff. Actually, the U.S. consumer buys almost three-quarters of everything produced. We are -for the most part- self-sustaining; we do not necessarily need to depend on exports. When the U.S. consumer is buying stuff the internal economy is strong.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in June, pointing to strong consumer spending, which could help to blunt some of the drag on the economy from weak business investment.
[…] Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales edging up 0.1% in June. Compared to June last year, retail sales advanced 3.4%.

(more…)

Peter Thiel has a rather alarming concern surrounding the possibility that Google Inc. is working with China, specifically to the intended detriment of the United States.
Given the political ideology of the ‘Big Club’; and their severe aversion to U.S. President Donald Trump…. well, it wouldn’t be surprising to discover a Google-China alignment.

(more…)

Earlier today China reported the Chinese economy grew at its lowest rate in 27 years. This report follows additional information of more companies exiting China while the U.S-China trade conflict continues.
National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow discusses the future of USMCA, and the vote decision of Speaker Nancy Pelosi; the ongoing renewed U.S. trade talks with China; President Trump’s Made in America Showcase and the overall state of the U.S. economy.

(more…)

We had to wait a few weeks to see how the Beijing communists and Xi Jinping hardliners were positioned for new trade talks; and now things make sense.
Initially it seemed at odds with Beijing’s prior position to restart U.S-China trade negotiations with Vice-Premier Liu He.  The prior three months of negotiation came to a collapse when Beijing resoundingly rejected the trade terms organized by Liu He.  If the Red Dragon was so opposed to conciliatory terms, why would team Xi restart with the same negotiator?  Now it makes sense, they didn’t.

China’s Commerce Minister Zhong Shan has been assigned the role to harden the position of the communist regime and override any panda presentations by Liu He.  Vice-Premier Liu retains the panda mask, but Zhong is the ultimate control agent.  The message within Zhong’s placement tells the true nature of the Chinese position: Trade War !
Beijing attempts to downplay the position of their hard-line commerce addition, but the reality of the re-started trade discussions tells a more fulsome story.  Chairman Xi took the strategically presented bait and is going to engage in full confrontational trade war with President Trump and the U.S. team.

SCMP – The participation of China’s Commerce Minister in the latest trade discussion with the United States was “normal”, China’s Ministry of Commerce said on Thursday, playing down the eye-catching change in Beijing’s negotiating team.

(more…)

White House National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow on the U.S.-China trade talks where recontact has been established and now officially restarted. As noted, President Trump is in no hurry; the status-quo is leverage in our favor.
Additionally Director Kudlow discusses the potential benefits of the USMCA trade deal and whether the Federal Reserve should lower interest rates.

.
Regarding “inflation” these pundits just don’t get it.  For over three years CTH has been explaining how President Trump’s maganomic policy would reverse three decades of stagnant Main Street economic growth.  The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) consistently confirms our earlier predictions releasing data where inflation is essentially nonexistent.
(more…)

Gordon Chang appears on Fox News with Charles Payne (filling in for Bartiromo) to discuss the downstream consequences from the G20 meeting between President Trump and Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping.
While he generally frames the picture accurately, lately Chang has been hit or miss.  He accurately outlines how a win/win trade deal is not possible from the perspective of Beijing and their zero-sum outlook; however, he misses on the issues around Huawei; misses the entire hostage dynamic with Kim Jong Un; and then hits again on Hong Kong.

.
♦ On China President Trump appears to be working on a complete and total decoupling from the U.S. However, there are steps required in the interim that are in flux (EU and USMCA). Once those matters are resolved we will likely see the decoupling.
♦ On North Korea, just because DPRK state media spouts something doesn’t mean Kim Jong-Un has any control over it.  Beijing has majority influence over DPRK officials.
♦ On Hong Kong, after the Kim hostage rescue; and while the China decoupling is underway; we can expect Hong Kong to be a larger part of Trump’s Indo-Pacific initiative.
(more…)

Before President Trump and Chairman Xi Jinping met in Osaka at the G20, Beijing requested the removal of current tariffs as a contingency for a Trump-Xi meeting.  The tariffs are causing two issues: (1) China is bleeding cash via subsidies to offset the tariffs and retain export position; (2) ancillary manufacturing companies are exiting China to avoid tariffs into the U.S. market.
Understanding how the static dynamic -he intentionally created- was favorable to the U.S., President Trump reasserted that current tariffs were not going to be removed.

After the Osaka meeting, President Trump and Chairman Xi agreed to re-open talks between the two teams with no new tariffs; however, as stated before the G20 summit the preexisting tariffs would remain.
Beijing is increasingly recognizing how the current status is disfavorable to their economy; and asserting that no further trade talks can take place until the U.S. promises to remove all tariffs as part of a completed agreement.

(SCMP) China has insisted that all tariffs on Chinese imports added by the United States during the trade war must be scrapped immediately as part of any deal to end the year-long conflict, which would require the Trump administration to give up its position that some levies remain in place even after an agreement is reached.

(more…)

Chopper pressers are the best pressers.  Earlier today President Trump stopped to deliver remarks and answer questions from the assembled media prior to boarding Marine-One.
There is a ton of updated current event information in this chopper presser. [July 4th, Economics, Fed, China, Biden, Wilbur Ross, Census, G20, Trade Deals, etc.]  The full transcript is below the video.

.
[Transcript]  THE PRESIDENT: That’s a great crowd of people. We had a phenomenal crowd last night, and it was a fantastic evening for our country. You’re going to have a lot of people being recruited, I think, based on that. We’re going to have a lot of — a lot of people joining our military. And we really needed that.
Our job numbers are so good that the military has a hard time getting people. And I think, really, that you’re going to see a big spike. I’ve already heard it — a lot of people calling in. No place like our military. I think we showed that last night.
(more…)

National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow appears on Fox News to discuss the June jobs report, current Federal Reserve policy, the Trump administration’s trade negotiations with China and former Reagan Economist Art Laffer receiving the Medal of Freedom.
On the China front there’s a weird, seemingly disconnected, dynamic appearing at the surface level within China.  The position of Chairman Xi Jinping and Vice-Premier Liu He seems unusually separated from Beijing messaging (more on that later). Here’s Kudlow:

(more…)

Excellent news from White House manufacturing policy advisor Peter Navarro as he discusses the re-engagement in U.S. and China trade discussions. Great INFO.
You won’t see this interview highlighted by MSM.  As we anticipated the prior 150 page agreement negotiated by USTR Robert Lighthizer and Vice-Premier Liu He, previously dismissed by Beijing after three months of intense discussions, is now the starting point for new talks.  This means the Chinese have acquiesced to the prior terms they rebuked.
The seven chapters, each assigned to a specific trade sector, are the baseline for Lighthizer and Liu He to re-engage.  Excellent news from the position of the U.S. team.

.
The CNBC knucklehead injecting about a Hauwei compromise was quickly corrected by Navarro. The Commerce Department restrictions and process for 90-day licenses to do business with Hauwei remains unchanged.
(more…)