In the latest round of statistics from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) the March inflation data has been released [DATA HERE]. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 0.1% in March after advancing 0.4% in February. This puts the 12-month CPI outlook at 5% inflation. [See Modified Table A on Left]
A 4.6% decline in March gasoline prices was offset by higher rental and housing costs. That was the primary driver of the lowered inflationary data as gasoline is weighted heavier in the impact.
However, that said, gasoline prices are already rising again after Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ oil producers early this month announced further oil output cuts. This puts the April CPI data (starting to be assembled this week) on track to increase over March.
Overall, in the big picture the data shows the plateau of sorts as we described for this spring. This plateau will be followed by another bump as a result of current input costs and prior energy costs traveling through the supply chain.
Energy services, electricity and natural gas, are stable but higher than last year. The crop cycles carry those increased costs from field to fork. Consumers cannot avoid those food prices increasing. The more processing involved in the food sector, the higher the price increase.
Housing increases are another unavoidable cost and generally cycle with a lag within them. As leases expire, the new lease rates increase accordingly. The same is true for insurance rates. Both unavoidable sectors have a rolling lag that hits the consumer upon renewal.





