When President Trump announced the 90-day pause in combination with the increase in tariffs against China, there was a background element missed by many.
At the moment President Trump triggered the public announcement, U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer was testifying to congress.
President Trump is not a jerk. Donald Trump would not put a top executive Greer in that optically vulnerable position if USTR Greer was the tip of the spear, it’s just bad business form.
The timing and background indicate something more substantial. For what we are calling ‘the BIG UGLY’ Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is the point, Greer is a functionary. It’s a shift from the Term-1 approach, because the global trade reset is magnitudes bigger and more substantive.
This approach would also explain why Robert Lighthizer was not reenlisted in Term-2. If Lighthizer was in Greer’s chair in front of congress at the moment of the public announcement, he would have been furious and rightly so. Lighthizer and Wilbur Ross were the tip of the spear in term-1, Lighthizer facing the region of Asia and Ross facing Europe; but the same strategy is not present in term-2.
In the Term-2 trade reset, the entire globe is being targeted simultaneously. Enter, the U.S. Treasury Secretary in a bigger, more substantive, and much more prominent role due to the scale of the trade reset.
This trade approach is much bigger, obviously. As the nuclear-level trade detonation takes place, Secretary Bessent is in control of both the financial market response and the core finances of the USA as it relates to the reverberations.
♦ In essence, President Trump detonates, Bessent controls the immediate aftermath. Commerce (Lutnick) and USTR (Greer) come in after, with the granular details and legal structures for reciprocity compliance. President Trump then reenters deciding the sequencing of inbound contacts, status in the queue, bilateral talks with the executive principals and then a later review of free trade agreement (FTA) contracts, details, with I’s dotted and T’s crossed before signatures.
This bigger sequencing, the priority of the strategy, explains all of Scott Bessent’s comments in the aftermath of the April 2nd “liberation day” trigger. Bessent warning the impacted nations not to react with retaliation. Some did, some did not. Those who retaliated go to the back of the queue (¹geopolitical needs of Trump not withstanding).
President Trump basically wiped decades of global free trade agreements off the books; many of those FTA’s were not bilateral which is the favored approach for President Trump on a nation-by-nation basis.
As a consequence, I would not look for too much emphasis on the EU as a collective trade partner because the assembly just represents too many interests. I would anticipate President Trump framing FTA’s for each nation within the union and then letting the predictable and internal bitch-fest in Brussels stew; let them work it out.
Yes, throughout this global detonation China is the big target. Without doubt, Beijing is trying to strategize how they can best position, with their previous influence within each “independent” nation now in a new framework. The tentacles of the ‘Belt and Road’ initiative have been simultaneously hit.
As Bessent has noted, the Beijing economic model is established to produce, produce, produce, regardless of purchases for their production. If Beijing does not get purchase orders, China just discount’s the product created and dumps it into any market that will purchase it (insert my trip to Russia witnessing this firsthand). European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, acting as spokesperson for France and Germany, is extremely worried about this happening in the EU.
The China dumping becomes problematic within the global reset because nations can take the cheap discounted Chinese goods and transship them to U.S. customers at substantially steep discounts that wipe out any protective tariff approach.
President Trump will factor this issue in any agreement with individual nations (hence, bilateral FTAs). If [XXX Nation] tries to transship discounted Chinese goods or components into the U.S. market, Trump will tariff, block or embargo that nation. The result means USA retaliation will cover all national manufactured or produced goods from that nation, not just the transshipped Chinese crap.
These pressure points upon China, from the EU (their own protective self-interest) and various nations who want to have preferred entry status to the U.S. consumer market, are critical. China is a production economy, cut out the purchases and they are in big trouble. This outcome is what can seriously impact President Xi Jinping.
This approach is why Beijing is quiet, trying to game out how to work around this global trade detonation.
¹ The only thing that can change a nation’s position in the trade negotiation queue, is a very specific geopolitical need from President Trump. Example, the EU position toward Ukraine and Russian sanctions.
As noted by President Trump in the XO signing session yesterday, he believes geopolitical events can be folded into the trade discussions if there is great value within them. Even though President Trump is approaching each country individually, the NATO group in Europe may get a better trade outcome if all the NATO members agree to President Trump’s peace outline in Ukraine.
This approach doesn’t replace or remove the issue of confronting inequal trade restrictions and relationships, it merely becomes one facet that can smooth the ink distribution from the reluctant EU hand holding the pen used in the trade agreement.
[ps. I’ll eat a plain rice cake if AMLO did not advise Mexican President Sheinbaum to keep her mouth shut. If only the Snow Mexicans had an AMLO to advise the insufferable Poilievre. 🙄]
“In the Term-2 trade reset, the entire globe is being targeted simultaneously. Enter, the U.S. Treasury Secretary in a bigger, more substantive, and much more prominent role due to the scale of the trade reset.
This trade approach is much bigger, obviously. As the nuclear-level detonation takes place, Secretary Bessent is in control of both the financial market response and the core finances of the USA as it relates to the reverberations.”
My cousin stopped by the house yesterday on his way to work. In the course of us discussing fishing plans during his upcoming two week vacation, he mentioned his 401K.
I had to tell him to chill out. PDJT knows what he is doing. I told him that he is just upsetting the Apple cart for some of the people taking advantage of us for their benefit.
I refer people to come here for the comprehensive explanation.
Hush Little Baby Don’t You Cry
https://g.co/kgs/UzzpHcY
Back around 2015-16 when “safe spaces” etc. were all the rage, I put a baby pacifier hanging off a large safety clip (for horse blankets – from Lehman’s in OH) off the pocket of my denim jacket.
I recall the time and specifically the Congress critters sitting on the floor crying like babies.
The manipulation, and how quickly they followed is scary. Climate Change, Safe Spaces, Trump, Russia Collusion, COVID, BLM, Hamas, Tesla, Tariffs etc All of them willingly being led by the nose.
I’m actually frightened that we have so many stupid people!
I am too. It’s puzzling how so many are absent even half of a working brain capable of independent thought and it is scary.
It is directly connected to the indoctrination, rather, education system that decries critical thinking.
Return to the Socratic method of asking questions to elicit a response after some consideration.
I use it with a couple of family members to understand their reasoning for being a against President Trump’s policies.
Often there isn’t one or it’s the same talking points you hear on CNN or any MSM source. No application of common sense.
We sorely miss critical thinking and common sense.
Great list; everything there to keep the sheep distracted.
Because they watch the damn TV.
.
And maybe partake in too many pharmaceuticals.
Perhaps those on anti-depressants believe that their comport could never be depressing since they are taking their ‘happy pills’ . . .
Many times, stupidity in large numbers is actually far more dangerous than the malice of a few.
They have been conditioned to believe, and repeat, all of the CNN/MSNBC talking points…sadly, there is also a large contingent on the right that simply spits out whatever FAUX news says as well!
Yikes!!!!
Pathetic. Not a single gene for leadership or courage in that lot.
.
Donald Trump just laid tariffs on the entire world and the stock market soared.
.
A lot of media idjits purposefully missing this incredibly important point!
What happened to tariffs are bad?
Right? All I’ve heard repeatedly is how tariffs are really a tax on consumers. So incredibly nice for these countries to line up to pay my taxes!
Yes, all pay 10% and are grateful!
I actually wasn’t phased in the least remembering how well instituting tariffs went in Trump’s first term, and just assumed anyone freaking out was showing the world how invested they remained in the liberal narrative.
Maybe this will be the thing that bursts your relative’s bubble. Thank goodness for this platform as a place to send him and others.
He will not read here. He does not like even using a telephone.
I just have to wait to give him the “I told you so”.
As far as others, you are correct. I understand this very well with reading it here. I can explain it to others in simple terms, but as far as for ultimate comprehension, nothing comes close to
reading Sundance’s posts! 😀
His writing does not require an Economics degree to understand the concepts.
It’s nice that he knows how to fish. Great skill, just in case. .
I have a great creek running through my mother’s yard to fish in as well.
Plus a smoker to preserve fish that are suitable for that process
The WEF was proceeding full steam ahead with their agenda, honed over decades…the antihuman globalist reset.
They didn’t check their rear view mirrors where objects are much closer than they appear.
Coming up behind them is President Trump (and his very able team) with his own, upsetting all their carefully laid out plans. I am convinced this is a big part of his misson. To wit…
US exits the WHO almost immediately after his inauguration…
US withdraws fundng for the WEF (in case anyone missed it, Schwab withdraws as president of that satanic organization)…
US withdraws from the lunatic “Climate” Treaty…
And now President Trump hits them with the MOAB tariff demands.
In short, being the extraordinarily successful builder that he is, he is constructing a different New World Order to the life threatening one envisioned and being executed by power mad self described Davos type elitists.
And while they were mocking him, snickering at him, dismissing him, he is passing them at speed.
Chaos? Of course.
But one has to destroy a rat invested edifice in order to build a better one.
Can’t wait to hear the words “Eat my dust”.
Surely they’re coming.
“Coming up behind them is President Trump (and his very able team) with his own, upsetting all their carefully laid out plans. I am convinced this is a big part of his misson.”
You are absolutely correct. This is necessary for MAGA to succeed.
WNY developer Carl Paladino asked DJT in Trump Tower why he wanted to subject himself to the brutality of politics. Mr. Paladino knows first hand how bad it is, having run for NY Governor in 2012.
Mr. Trump’s reply to him was (paraphrasing here) that he:
1) Did not like where this country was headed.
2) He wanted a decent country for his children and grandchildren to live in.
3) He believed that he could make a difference.
He did not want to spend the rest of his life in comfort and do nothing while everything crumbled around us.
Mr. Paladino shared that at the Erie County (NY) Republican straw poll that was held in Feb 2016.
DJT easily won the straw poll over Jeb!, much to the establishment (R) here in NY.
Citizen Donald J Trump spent decades in the trenches with men who wear hard hats, work boots, and get their clothes dirty. He was already smarter than most of the pinky pointed, suit wearing snobs in his social, political, and business world.
I bet he enjoyed learning from the Hard Hat men about How Work Gets Done. He did not see them as less than him. They were experts in their fields. I know that he received a great education and sees them as real human beings instead of men with callouses.
As opposed to BO’s dismissive taunt to working men and women.
They DID build this!
As PDJT is first to acknowledge.
“DJT easily won the straw poll over Jeb!, much to the establishment (R) here in NY.”
DJT easily won the straw poll over Jeb!, much to the consternation of the establishment (R) here in NY.
President Trump is not a politician. And they hate him for that.
Where those who feast on the entrails of an America they’ve bled dry having contributed nothing but hot air and misery by actions they take to make it harder for the rest of us to provide for ourselves and our families, President Trump has lived amongst us and had to deal with what we do every single day.
The clueless former speak AT us.
President Trump speaks TO us and FOR us.
How could we not love him.
They hate him because they cannot control him.
He is independently wealthy, so cannot be manipulated like most other people seeking political office.
He does not have any “skeletons in his closet” either that could be used to blackmail or coerce him.
Look at his children. As far as I know, none of them have received as much as a parking ticket, or got into trouble that daddy bailed them out of.
“Look at his children.”
Contrast and compare.
His tree has born good fruit.
Mr Paladino owns a piece of prime real estate in our community. It’s been sitting vacant for over 20 years…we call it “the Pitt”..Rumor has it that the D’s are blocking the development of the land.
I do not doubt it.
You would see how fast things would move if a (D) owned it and wanted to do something with it.
I never thought Id live to see the day a President actually begin to dismantle the mess that was the sorry assed excuse for our Government. My Civics teacher would be ecstatic.
This keeps running through my head, dear friend…
The good Lord will provide a way through where there seems to be none.
We’ve watched and endured as countless truly evil men and women have conspired to subjugate, then eliminate populations everywhere by all foul methods imaginable. It is only in hindsight we can see for how long with no visible means or method to disrupt and derail them in their quest for One World Communism, without God, executed by power mad people with severe psychopathies.
Thank God Almighty for Donald Trump, His appointed weapon of mass destruction.
The way through.
Agree. “Drain the swamp” was/seemed like a wishful pipe dream. Watching now in real time is most satisfying. What our VSGPDJT & Team have done in <100 days is beyond comprehension. Oh, and THANK YOU to the DOGE Boys!
Excellent!
In his first term President Trump was affectionately called Roadrunner while the plotting, scheming Democrats and never Trumpers played the role of Wile E Coyote to perfection. Always looking up just as the anvil was about to fall on their head.
Meep meep! Roadrunner coming through.
Hollywood Execs oh please send Robert De Niro to White House to make deal with PDJT to save your Hollywood asses from your communist CCP masters…
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14592397/china-europe-trump-tariffs-news-live-updates.html
We should too
The Wall Street types are trying to panic him to dumping his stocks so they can buy them at a steep discount.
I realize he doesn’t do the trading himself, his pension managers do, but please remind him that he doesn’t lose anything if he doesn’t sell.
The average major “crash” is 6 months to 2 years, with an average 15 years of upswing following that.
This is a pattern that has held back to 1907, when the 1906 San Francisco earthquake caused a bank run on gold deposits due to insurance payouts.
(That was the bank panic JP Morgan used to get the ball rolling to create the evil Federal Reserve in 1913.)
And specifically regarding tariffs, much of our media hysteria is built on the myth of the Smoot-Hawley tariff causing the Great Depression.
Smoot-Hawley tariffs had nothing to do with it, nor did the other tariffs in the 10 years that had preceded it. Tariffs were used all the time.
What caused the Great Depression was a default by the sovereign central banks of Europe.
The Rothschilds crashed the banks of Austria just like Soros crashed the British pound (and later, the Thai baht.)
Suddenly, nobody could pay anybody, that is, the banks couldn’t settle between each other, because a key link in the European settlement chain had been broken. Inter-bank credit froze, and spread through the commodity (wheat) markets to the over-leveraged banks of the US and Wall Street.
Exactly like the Mortgage Meltdown in 2008, inter-bank credit froze. In other words, the world financial bloodstream couldn’t flow.
(The MM was deliberately triggered, too, somebody knew where the switch was. I suspect not just Soros, but the cabal backing him. Specifically, somebody had the heft to short the ABS derivatives index for $1.7 trillion, which tripped all the major computer program trading/pricing circuits.
One day, all the banks in the world knew what everybody’s collateral was worth; the next day, nobody knew what anybody’s bets were worth and the inter-bank bloodstream froze. Like the Great Depression, all the assets were still there, it was a banking credit crash.
This was a financial nuke dropped using the Bush S&L crisis mortgage tranches to make sure Obama could get into position and begin his ‘fundamental transformation.’ In other words, they nuked America.
They blamed credit-poor negroes for buying houses and ignored the millions of illegals buying them on crap loans forced at gunpoint by the corrupt FHA, as well. Those over-priced mortgages to illegals thoughout the Southwest were the ground zero of the MBS derivatives cascade.)
I apologize for all the nitty-gritty, those details are useless trying to explain anything to anyone, really.
What you are seeing is global scale financial war; despite what many say about the banksters and the wars they cause, I think it’s preferable to actual kinetic war, the bang-boom bodies in rubble type.*
The shills and shrills are shrieking because they are weak women unused to seeing hard men negotiate as hard men do. Putin and Xi are both hard, smart men with dangerous pasts; Trump is speaking to them as equals in a language they understand and respect. The threat of war is only a negotiation to set the price.
Trump has to go in hard, he has to do it fast, before the connivers and corrupt get their footing back under them. The markets will still be there, the 401k’s and Social Security will still be there, and the lights will stay on. Tell your cousin to be glad, be grateful, because we are getting to watch real history happen, and none can take that from us.
Trump is turning the Great Reset into the MAGA Reset.
Trump is planting trees in whose shade he will never sit; he is leveraging both the cabal backing him and the globalists opposing him into refortifying white men with the firm grounding and resupply they will need to take back the world peace that was Pax Britannica, and then her colony’s Pax Americana. We are seeing the hand of the Increate at work here.
______________
*(Physical war is what the banksters are actually trying to avoid, since we European peoples and our ancient ancestors are the masters of it. That’s what the Great Replacement is all about, culture war, war without weapons, since none could or can match our weapons and military prowess. Our people invented metal itself, the wheel, and horse-riding; our ancestors, driven by the increasing cold, swept from the Pontic steppes on chariots with bronze axes, and none could oppose them. The Great Replacement is a war some 5000 years old, actually, as the banksters dream of taking our place; it is the actual world war being fought even today.)
“Smoot-Hawley tariffs had nothing to do with it, nor did the other tariffs in the 10 years that had preceded it. Tariffs were used all the time.
What caused the Great Depression was a default by the sovereign central banks of Europe.”
Thank you for the accurate history lesson.
Martin Armstrong just did an article on that.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/trade-war/why-is-trump-using-tariffs-the-truth-that-has-misled-the-world-on-tariffs/
It is a long detailed article
Who is AMLO? I really liked Jamieson Greer. He held up well to some ridiculous Dem grilling.
He was in office before Mexican President Sheinbaum, during VSGPDJT’s 1st term.
A possibly evocative AMLO tidbit…..
Long time DJT friend and fellow NYC guy, Guilliani, was AMLOs campaign advisor when AMLO successfully ran to become the populist .Mayor of Mexico City; the position which lead to him becoming Mexico’s President and one of President Trumps most fearless allies, even after the globalists coup in 2020 removed PDJT and installed pResident Joe; tempirarily.
It was a very pyrrhic victory for the NWO camo wearing Old World Order Globalusts
Thanks. I did not know that.
Interesting tidbit.
So can we assume that this lawfare that they’ve got Rudy sucked into was a retaliation for having done that with AMLO?
Andrés Manuel López Obrador
Former President of Mexico
Andrés Manuel López Obrador
I liked his remark “what’s a blink, sir?”.
AMLO is one of the better presidents that Mexico has had in the last 40-50 years.
Andres Manuel Lopez-Obrador
Former Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.
“The China dumping becomes problematic within the global reset because nations can take the cheap discounted Chinese goods and transship them to U.S. customers at substantially steep discounts that wipe out any protective tariff approach.
President Trump will factor this issue in any agreement with individual nations (hence, bilateral FTAs). If [XXX Nation] tries to transship discounted Chinese goods or components into the U.S. market, Trump will tariff, block or embargo that nation. The result means USA retaliation will cover all national manufactured or produced goods from that nation, not just the transshipped Chinese crap.”
I guess we all have to revert back to using “VSGPDJT” again while posting here, instead of just “PDJT”.
For those that do not remember from the first term:
“Very Stable Genius President Donald John Trump”
When will we run out of all the Chinese crap products that are everywhere in our nation? I remember when Sam Walton was proud to state everything he sold in his stores (Walmart) was made in the USA.
I remember when we used to mock products made in Japan.
I guess the Chinese took their place. However, the Japanese know how to innovate. All the Chinese do is know how to copy.
Now Japan makes some of the best optics and Bible paper for modern digital printing. The India paper (that had a rag content like our currency) is not suitable for modern digital printing methods. It was used in the old hot stamp method using physical plates.
China takes other products and just copies them. Then floods the market with cheap knock offs until the original producers go out of business.
The did that with Buffalo China here in WNY. Former Rep. Chris Collins (R-NY) was one of the investors that tried to keep that plant open and running.
That same scenario played out thousands of times across this country the past three decades or so.
Tariffs would have prevented most of it from happening.
Earlier this year had to find some incandescent light bulbs and learned they are still available but have to say they are for catering uses, to keep food warm.
I mentioned the executive order by President Trump to bring back the incandescent bulbs for everyday use to the seller, one of those huge lightbulb company vendors said it won’t make a difference because no one in the United States manufactures those anymore and by the time this term ends the next President will simply undo the current executive order.
There needs to be some US based manufacturer that could put those products into their system to build up the inventory please!
Then we need Congress to set those executive orders in stone!
I just bought a few 100 watt lamps at a garage sale last weekend!
We stocked up on the 100 watt lamps for certain uses.
PDJT got rid of the stupid JRB water standards for showerheads:
https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/serendipity-thursday-april-10-2025
During a recent on-line auction of vintage Mattel toys, a discussion about Chyna knock-off’s ensued. I was struck by the # of attendees who make snide comments and exhibited utter distain for that stuff. Thank you VSGPDJT for pouring sand into the”Belt and Road” gears.
How far we have fallen. Everyone jumped onto the China bandwagon.
“Trump-47” works too.
Yes.
Plus we will not have to explain VSGPDJT to some!
I cannot remember the circumstance(s) that arose to earn him that moniker.
AMLO ???
and
Pierre Poilievre is way better choice for Canada than WEF,GLOBALIST,SCUM BAG,
CARBON TAX MARK CARNEY .
(period)
PS
In the END GAME Canada caves into what ever the BOSS wants .
Absolutely . PP is the best hope for Canada and he is getting huge crowds for his rallies. *Huge for Canada anyway.
His apple crunching interview was one of the greatest things I’ve ever seen
PP is the Canadian Mittens.
I recommend you skip that stage and go straight to a Canadian Trump, if there is one.
100% … Canadas best hope is Bernier / PPC but they are way behind … looks like more pain for Canada.
Check out Grant Abraham… Is a MAGA movement coming for Canada?
Abraham, the founder of the United Party of Canada, Abraham believes the current Conservative Party of Canada betrayed social conservatives, a large contingent of the Conservative base.
“The United Party of Canada is essentially a grassroots, fiscally conservative party that seeks to properly integrate the social conservative values that the Conservative party used to hold on to, and that were brought into the party from the Reform era people,” Abraham said.
In Abraham’s book, he discusses the “pathology of dysfunction” within the modern CPC.
“They move from a Preston Manning Reform era social conservative agenda to essentially having Pierre Poilievre refer to them as ‘those embarrassing and bombastic people’ that came to typify the Reform era.’”
https://tnc.news/2024/02/27/united-party-of-canada-makes-its-debut2/
If the worst happens and Globalists take Canada once again, perhaps President Trump will throw a life line to pull Canadians out of the quicksand and convince them to join us.
thank you for explaining this to a dummy like me Sundance it’s greatly appreciated! this is one of the most under recognized new sites on the Internet
What is your definition of new? You mean you are new to this well-established group of intellects? 😉
Maybe he meant “news” sites. This site is not new
Typo
Every site is new until you’ve read it.
This site has been around for quite awhile.
CTH was often named best blog on WordPress until this happened:
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2020/11/16/update-from-wordpress-automattic-on-treehouse-deplatforming/
How ever you found us, welcome!
Diplomacy is described as the act of isolating your enemy so you can kill him. China is now feeling a change underneath its feet for the first time in a long time.
Well said!
I prefer Winston Churchill’ definition…’telling someone to go to hell is such a manner that they look forward to the trip’
Yes because President Trump and his team are not compromised by and beholden to China like the last 12 years of D rule.
“Diplomacy is described as the act of isolating your enemy so you can kill him”.
By some, perhaps this is their form of “diplomacy”.
Fortunately, its not the only type of diplomacy.
Better yet, its NOT President Trumps diplomacy.
And everyone who’s a global decider knows it based on their own interactions with him plus researching his actions over the past 50+ years.
And best of all, he has been amassing a coalition of allies both here and around the world.
Perhaps a more evocative framing of global happenings == Sun Tzu Light Hearted warriors versus Dark Hearted Machiavellians?
Or Tolkien’s fictional Anti Mordor Alliance manifested as a very real Anti Globalist Old World Order/ NWO Alliance?
Perhaps neither America or China (or any other country) is in the cross hairs but instead its the Deep State NWO elements, either foreign or domestic?
Perhaps some global leaders who appear to be enemies, arent?
And perhaps, some who loudly proclaim to be allies and friends, arent?
It’s always interesting to see how power is handled. They chose to be evil.
Diplomacy is the art of saying “nice doggie” until you find a big enough rock.
Seems chyna is facing a really big rock.
It almost seems POTUS VSGDJT is fomenting regime changes around the world. 😉
Did Reagan take down the USSR? Will Trump take down China?
Will Trump take down The City?
Better question.
He is aware of its magnitude on the world stage pulling the strings behind the WEF.
Really? Ok then. If that’s your take then go have fun watching what happens. Hope you have a lot of popcorn.
If nothing was accomplished, why is it that some 75 nations are now communicating with the administration for bilateral trade deals?
I think there is another complementary angle to the targeting of China. Breaking China financially isolates Russia. If China’s fragile economy has the legs kicked out from under it, they are not in a position to support Russia in a wider scale conflict. Without the threat of a wider scale conflict, it puts Russia into a more receptive stance for negotiating the end of hostilities with the clown-state of UKR.
I don’t think Russia wants a wider scale conflict, but they need that chess piece on the board in order to negotiate from a position of strength. Without it, what is their leverage? Don’t make us hurt Zelensky harder! Outside of a few Trannies for Kamala and Raytheon investors, no one cares.
“What is their leverage?”
They offer what we BOTH want and need, the opportunity for peace, prosperity, creativity and shared future adventures.
Win/win.
I want China kicked off of our farmland and removed from areas around military installations.
Governor Huckabee attempted to accomplish this and was blocked by the courts.
And removed from our shipping ports, automated or not.
And get the “student” spies out of our universities.
Unfortunately, this “blockage” by the courts is just one more example revealing that a very substantial amount of our judiciary (as well as the other two branches of our Consitutional Republic) have been infiltrated, and compromised, by the Chinese Communist Party (i.e., “the long march thru our insitutions” is VERY REAL and must be eradicated).
Perhaps, DJT’s China current tariffs will help precipitate this need as well?
Something really has to be done about our so-called “courts.”
Lots to choose from, but my fav is ‘clown-state of UKR.’
Along with President Trump’s plan for energy dominance, which he may fold into trade negotiations. Russia needs to sell energy if countries won’t deal with them for other stuff.
Sent back to being nothing more than a lonely highway gas station for sure.
Why it is important that PDJT and Putin remain on stable, friendly terms. Russia could become 1 of our largest trading partners, and they both know it, just get get rid of the war monger hangers on in DC.
Now THAT would global re-ordering.
While the military angle is one to keep aware of, I’m not so convinced President Trump has that as his goal.
If we are to normalize relations with Russia, Trump has to limit Putin’s options for negotiating. At the moment, Russia can play the US off China, and vice versa. Add to the this the fact that much of recent US foreign policy has chased Russia straight into China’s embrace. President Trump knows this, and must break that embracing to bring Putin to the table.
Reducing China’s economic presence globally means Russia must decide whether to renegotiate with Trump, or allow his country to become the de facto dumping ground for all those cheap Chinese goods.
Does Putin wish to destroy his own economy with cheap Chinese imports, just to save his “erstwhile” ally? That will be the choice Putin must eventually face, as President Trump continues to play out his hand.
I knew AMLO would be behind the scenes. He just couldn’t deal with Trump again face to face. 🙂
The Chess Master
“Literally nothing was accomplished ” Really? Please explain because I see the entire world desperate to make deals with the US that will alter trade in OUR favor. But yeah, Wall Street gonna shed globalist tears for a while and new factories will take some time to build but VSGPDJT has changed the game. That’s why we ride with him.
“But yeah, Wall Street gonna shed globalist tears for a while” until they get bet to trying to strip Russia, again.
I didn’t know George Conway was a treeper. Why not use your real name Georgie?
I suspect that after Trump targeted the entire world, China went looking for partners, using loans as leverage, to all gang up on us. Trump just isolated China to dissolve these partnerships.
None of the timing is coincidental. China nibbled, nibbled, nibbled, and Trump jerked the twine on the box trap.
Isn’t Vietnam key to watch?
The EU coordinating w China(?). Together they’re about 60% of our imports.
A few days ago, Ursula was worried about China dumping their products into the EU.
I suspect Vietnam will be one to watch for locking down the back door loopholes that China is using for access to the US market.
Watch Singapore
Agreed – Vietnam and Singapore are the biggest back door loopholes to watch.
Malaysia, Canada, and Mexico are also dark horses to consider here.
Taiwan also? *So. Much. Crap. from Taiwan* that is indistinguishable from crap from china.
IDK so I’m asking.
What happens to the tooling located in China? Are American companies able to move it to the US? Or does it stay in China, and new tooling needs to be made here?
It can be moved out, but you have to be very quiet about your plans to leave China. As in, you keep the news to the last minute and quietly ramp down operations. It’s definitely a challenging situation.
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but there will be no huge manufacturing influx to the US. The more likely scenario is that it will be moved to Vietnam or Mexico. It pains me more than anyone to say that. I work in manufacturing, and there is nothing I want to see more than rampant reshoring. Unfortunately, most of these companies are sleazy and addicted to cheap labor. Mexico has become increasingly enticing due to its proximity and the free trade agreement. The cost of labor is dirt cheap compared to the US, and all they care about is the bottom line. Like I said, I hate it! I do consider an exodus from China to be at least a partial win.
Interesting observation.
I’m no financial expert, so just my thoughts:
Labor is a big part of the pie.
Fixed expenses.
Cost of materials.
Energy.
Regulatory environment.
Political/Legal environment.
Transportation.
And import duties (tariffs).
I suppose each company with overseas factories will have to weigh carefully all their options.
Some will choose wisely.
Some will not.
The world economy is going to undergo some
‘Fundamental
Transformation’
In the next few years.
Most of those overseas factories are owned by China. An American company cannot own a business there 100% there must be a partnership with CCP. So Americans contract to the Chinese factory and do become vulnerable to the factory over producing and selling the excess product very cheap with a label that looks like your original to your own market. Very bad.
Thank you Marcia. That is what I had been told from a manufacturer whose product we sell. Now, they said it is very difficult to take their tooling out. Difficult implies not impossible, which contradicts previous statements that they could not remove it from the country.
This is good information – it’s good to be clear, and even better to be clear going forward
{ Don’t Be Fooled! Sneaky Tactics in Fake Made in USA Advertising }
Where these companies leaving China go depends on the intelligence of their leadership.
They can move to Mexico and produce cheap products with cheap labor and pay a tariff which makes it the same price as good Made in America products produced with well-paid quality labor, or they can make good American products with no tariff. Corporations will no longer be allowed to enrich themselves off of slave labor in other countries.
When we get to the Buy American campaign, they will wish they were in the US.
I hear you, but even with the tariffs, Mexico and Vietnam are a lot cheaper. It’s not even close. It’s pretty hard to compete when you’re not paying medical benefits, retirement contributions, etc. I hate it, but most of the companies are short sighted. They want to maximize profit. For better or worse, having US labor is a hassle. It’s expensive, they can unionize, there are a lot of regulations, OSHA, and the list goes on. I still long for the day when manufacturing returns! Hopefully it will as automation gets better.
Well. If they over produce by not being able to sell products, they will be forced to shut down. That’s the que to leave.
I’m following this all pretty closely, although with my common sense brain, I’m no financial Whizzz.
I’m thinking about how China produces, produces, produces as Sundance explains.
I’m reminded of OPEC and how they turn up the volume or down the volume of oil barrels which then of course has a ripple effect over the entire economy.
It seems as though we need a mechanism to do this same thing with China and their model, that cannot simply be ‘Produce’ non-stop forever even though we’ve now got so much junk that people pay to store it all.
There has to be a way to turn down the volume..
To my mind, this is what the new tariffs are going to do, to be, an accurate control knob for the volume.
Not buy product will force China stop producing unless they’re able to sell in other markets.
I don’t believe that they can stop or slow down their producing, this is why the EU is now worried about them dumping product..
Xi will not stay in power there if there are job losses and a whole lot of hungry, angry single men.
What Donald Trump is hoping to do as a solution to this is flip things upsidedown.
We need to stop consuming so much and the Chinese, who are very frugal savers, need to now begin consuming a whole lot of their own crap they make.
This is forcing a change to the customer base, it’s not going to be us so much, they need to become bigger consumers now.
Again, Americans are done towing the wagon all alone, this includes a consumerist/heavy debt lifestyle to keep economies going.
Perhaps consider whether a different verb tense would be more apropos and evocative…..
at least in terms of OPEC and PDJT since 2017?
Remember when PDJT would make public tweet requests (after private contacts?) asking MbS/OPEC to “turn up the volume or down” of the oil they released?
Also who hosted the first Russia/US meeting since PDJT left office in 2021 and is expected to host the first meeting between Presidents Putin and Trump?
The Saudi Crown Prince and OPEC guy, MbS.
Exactly.
I do believe that Trumps overall goal here is to create these levers to be able to control production/imports/exports the whole thing– to a much greater and finer extent.
He wants an economy lever in the same way that OPEC can turn the oil up or down– which then controls a whole lot.
Remember: who ever controls these levers controls a whole lot.
Whoever creates these levers controls even more.
Another wrinkle is that China doesn’t buy many US or EU products, it just makes stuff to sell. I haven’t figured out the ramifications of that, though, but I know it makes a difference. They aren’t incurring a “balance” in balance-of-trade, that is, I’ll give you something you want for something I want.
I know we sell them Treasuries, but that’s just lubricant so banks can settle inter-national trade.
We facilitate their trade with other nations, which we tried to cut Russia out of with the sanctions.
Russia has more trade with Denmark than they do with us, we can’t sanction China because we’re so dependent on them.
Thanks, “bottom-line” traitors! You saved us so many pennies all our small businesses went bust!
“… which we tried to cut Russia out of with the sanctions….”
That was the illigetimate-usurper-globullist-warmonger-regime’s hubristic stupidity – which only harmed US, not the Russians…
WE the People did not do/vote for that… that was absolutely *not* “we” – that was the usurpers.
Breaking US addiction to china is fully underway now… dependence was malevolently & artificially created by the globullist agenda over decades… bad medicine in every respect…
and is being benevolently disintegrated by the America First agenda in short order.
It’s the way to both purge parasites &/or break an addiction – end it at once, and (as Nature abhors a vacuum) put much better in its place; integrate & acclimate with higher frequencies.
Some pain in life is inevitable; suffering is optional.
china is the communist-globullist storefront… buying china’s goods in the US has funded and now supports/continues funding the globullist agenda outright, straight from your/Americans’ personal income, over & above what the (past-usurper-regimes) gov’t. does/has been funneling of your taxes to fund that.
Dependence is SO not necessary; We The People will be *so much better off* without it – out from under it, actually.
We ARE *ready to ‘leave our abuser’* = communist-globullist-storefront-moneyPIT that has nearly bled US dry.
Literally everything we *need* is already here –
{ Made in the USA Matters }
In point of fact, people don’t need all the drugs that have been sold to them; the US *does not need* to be the most heavily medicated citizenry on the planet. It’s been done to us/US for the agenda of numbing us to our overthrow & disabling our resistance to all usurpation(s).
{ Trump Drops the Hammer on Big Pharma — MASSIVE Tariffs Incoming! (VIDEO) }
Between now & then… we can break this addiction too; we don’t have to continue to be “the big market”. When he talked to Mexico’s President she stated that Mexico is “not a consuming nation” for their illegal/cartel drug trade.
The US can become “not a consuming nation” for the ConMedpHARMafia’s “legal” drugs likewise.
WE CAN starve that beast down to size – if we just will.
They are vicious cold-blooded killer-profiteers, after all.
MAHA.
It’s not to be missed that Bessent worked in the Soros money machine and made a lot of money that way. But most significantly he now’s how that hive works. It’s likely that he knew exactly what levers were being moved to push the market. I’m just happy that the h]shirts had to use some of their own money to cover. Hey are back to shorting, but they will have to cover again.
ps. should read the insufferable Poilievre and Carney with the edge to Carney.
Poi LIE are
Canada’s version of insufferable Massie or Rand Paul?
Personally, since Canadians haven’t come close to “hitting rock bottom” yet so they still believe they just need to change political parties to get the “Hope and Change” they need in order to survive….
I’m rooting for a Carney win.
And based on recent PDJT comments, he may also prefer having a Carney as Canada’s PM rather than Poilievre.
Sundance wants Poilievre to win, just not to be so French.
Carney is a foreign puppet, an invader from Britain (which he and Gordon Brown bankrupted as well.)
Wow. Great analysis.
Transactional Leverage in Plain View
President Trump Term-1 was like trying to catch water with your hands—leaky, reactive, and impossible to control.
*Trump applied pressure, but China found ways around it: multilateral deals, WTO cover, corporate backchannels.
President Trump Term-2 is the bucket.
*Bilateral-only deals, sequencing, and hard lines. Trump resets the system. Bessent contains the fallout. No more chasing the water—the U.S. now controls the flow.
Then comes the counter-move.
*China quietly signals its partners to back off U.S. Treasury auctions—a soft hit meant to raise yields and test resolve.
*We saw this effort this week with 30-year sag. Message received by US
The U.S. counterpunches immediately—using the trade queue.
*You want a bilateral deal? Access to the U.S. market? Great. Show up at auction.
*Trump just issued a 90-day hold—not as a concession, but as a signal: you have a window to prove alignment.
*That’s not desperation—it’s design.
*Buy in or move back.
Because here’s the truth:
*China’s leverage is Belt and Road debt and access to goods.
*America’s leverage is the ability to actually sell the goods—to the biggest, most valuable consumer base on Earth.
This isn’t weakness.
It’s reciprocity—backed by market access and enforced in real time.
Tell ’em Joe!
Oh man, this is excellent, ain’t it?
Isn’t 90 days part of the ‘quarterly’ business cycle? So again, not a business person but, is it significant?
I wonder if this is so some will be visited with a ‘quarterly’ results report? Quarterly tax payments? Profit Projections? Company Prospectus reports/changes and the results alone, implement a change of their opinions and business actions?
Nice question AggieGirl… your hypothesis has merit.
i believe the 90 days was a period of negotiations.currently there are 75 countries wanting to make a deal.and vsgpdjt wants his hands on every letter of every deal before he signs.so that’s 1 country a day and off on sundays.
one thing i have noted is since the tariff talk started the main stream media has been silent on the ukraine and lil’z.
I’m certainly not a genius, but the analysis you laid out here, JoeS, makes perfect sense to me.
I suffered through five minutes of Bloomberg tv this morning and the TDS is suffocating. Trump blinked, afraid of the market, did not plan for anything… Turned it off, insufferable.
Yeah. I listen to the Bloomberg because I absolutely cannot spend a second on an NBC program.
Titanic shift!
Shift course before it hits the iceberg, you bet!
More like Tectonic shift – absolutely moving the Earth under everyone’s feet.
Tump is a force of Nature… because he understands energy & how to wield/move it; has studied it all his life.
Everything to do with that Tesla paperwork his uncle came into possession of, imo.
Bessent has the Wall St cred. And while I know their needs are subordinate to Main St, the financial markets can’t be ignored. Also, Treasury is the right fulcrum to execute this because of potential impact of foreign reprisals on interest and exchange rates. China has been dumping Treasury bonds for instance and yet yesterday’s 10 yr treasury auction was well bid.
China has been selling Treasuries for quite a few years now.
They have reduced their holdings by half.
For one thing, they saw what happened to Russia with the Ukraine sanctions.
They have been hoarding gold as well, to limit that asset seizure risk.
“…yesterday’s 10 yr treasury auction was well bid.”
Now that is good news, under Biden it got to where nobody was buying.
What 10 year treasuries are, basically, is the engine oil that keeps the global trade engine running, they are the lubricant.
That is the main product the US sells, that’s what they mean by the “reserve currency.”
Under Biden, first the global engine was seized up under Covid, and it was starting to seize up again waiting for Kamala.
They wanted us desperate enough to start a world riot, a global communist Revolution.
__________________
(Aha! I just realized why they seized it up for Obama with the Mortgage Meltdown.
His Revolution didn’t take, and Hillary couldn’t finish it because she lost, so they tried again with Biden setting up Kamala.
She wasn’t an accident, she was actually the main point; she and her parents had been groomed by the same San Francisco cell leader that set up Obama and Eric Holder, in fact. Biden was just her placeholder. Obama had started as Hillary’s technician, but usurped his boss.
She was to be the face of the Revolution led from behind by Obama.
Obama is just the fake-and-gay American version of Klaus Schwab, who is also a cartoon Bond villian puppet.)
An interesting article that is an example of a “work around” down at the ‘individual’ levels, that was going on at the American side of the northern border, to avoid duties, taxes, etc, by ‘border crossers’?:
https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/us-shop-relied-canadians-announces-closure-citing-tariffs-trumps-choice
The use of global trade as a tool for reasserting U.S. interests and defense is brilliant! And while the MSM chases after PDJT for destroying our economy, the fact that individual nations seek the U.S. market escapes their vision.
“….the fact that individual nations seek the U.S. market escapes their vision.”
So good! Seeing as how that Bush/Cheney vision of “bomb them until they love democracy” thingie didn’t work out so well.
Basically, after we resurrected jihad in Afghanistan, overthrew the Shah, and set loose the Islamic dogs, we used them to threaten the world into paying us protection money.
(It was Bush’s CIA and MI6 who installed Khomeini, who was a British-Indian agent and not even Persian, by the way. Their rabid pitbull went rogue. The necon nitwits who installed Saddam, set up Bin Laden as a bag man and created al-Qaeda and ISIS, remember?)
china has a large enough population that they could develop an internal market but china wont. It would take freeing the citizen from central government control and removing the roadblocks that prohibit a vibrant middle class. It wont happen though because the ruling class will fight tooth and nail to hang onto their place in the hierarchy (sounds familiar) and most importantly, the chinese citizen doesn’t have their version of President Trump. So china is just SOL and completely dependent on the USA for their economy to thrive.
Bingo!
China’s biggest problem is its upside down pyramid demographics.
Observationally, urbanization has made a significant portion of China’s population something like lower middle class. But, you can’t get humans who have access to birth control (of one form or another) to have lots of babies while living in rabbit warrens (high rises with small apartments).
In that situation, Chinese women will balance remaining middle class with available space, and they will smother mother one son, or a daughter and a son at most, to have the next generation aim for middle class or upper middle class. It is a very “prosperity” driven culture. Getting a woman in that situation to have 3 kids is near impossible. Producing the next generation is solidly constrained in real terms by two to three generations of gender imbalance – there is an absolute limit on a reduced number of women of child bearing age.
The urbanization that produced the current Chinese economy will kill that same economy off, in the end.
Also, almost everything sold in Chinese stores is Chinese made.
The call by economists for them to focus on internal domestic self sustainment has been out there for well over ten years.
The main issue for China appears to be natural resource limitations – oil and gas, and limited arable land.
That need to secure those resources (energy and food) explains a lot of the Belt & Road move, as well as the decision to partner with Russia economically.
The Russian Navy goes on shore leave in Qing Dao, and no one blinks an eye.
Astute observation.
China cannot allow a thriving middle class, because that middle class will contain the newly upwardly mobile – those who will not be happy to remain middle class, but will demand access to the upper classes.
China’s current upper class sees that as a direct threat. Even if Xi wanted to do this, the political ranks just below him would take him down, just to protect their own place, before he could implement it.
For China to grow out of this, Xi would have to become like Trump – and there’s no human way that’s going to happen.
“there’s no human way that will happen”.
Fortunately,there are many human beings, including Xi’s friend, PDJT,who realize that the best things that happen, especially history transforming things, are things that were ” there’s no HUMAN way that will happen” IMPOSSIBLE.
As DJT famously advised,”treat the word impossible as nothing more than motivation”.
“No human way possible” means that by the usual human outlooks of fear and greed, human nature prevents it from happening.
It does not, however, preclude Divine Providence from stepping in. However, that means the “human way” is overshadowed by “God’s Way”.
Matthew 19:26/Mark 10:27 always apply.
“So China is just SOL”
or perchance, at long last, motivated by finally “hitting rock bottom” to make the necessary drastic changes in order to avoid certain death?
‘China is the big target.’ Trump announced the large 25% tariffs (50% on China) and the markets responded negatively. Trump announces Europe/Asia’s tariffs reduced to 10% for four months to negotiate whilst concurrently slapping China with 125%. Markets respond and they seem to have shrugged off and accepted the China tariffs.😉 Sad panda.
But what about the central banks?
Have they surrendered, or did they just pull the pin on extend and pretend in commercial real estate?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/one-largest-malls-us-just-defaulted-its-300-million-mortgage
Yes Sundance, to all. People forgot about Trump saying he’d have the fighting in Ukraine all wrapped up in no time when it didn’t happen.
He also said the US had the largest consumer base in the world and it wasn’t being leveraged. That is how he knew he could stop the fighting, BRI, anything he wanted.
The timing is interesting. I don’t mind its taking longer than he seemed to think, although that might have been part of not letting your enemy know your strategy and by enemy one can choose the Left, their captured media, the EU, Mexico, Canada, China, Qatar, Hamas, … The list goes on, it doesn’t matter, they are all taken out as enemies in one swoop, with their choice to come back as friends. I find the predicted booty kissing fascinating.
I’ll admit Trump had me thinking he forgot that with the no boundaries, evil, uglies, he will always need a bigger hammer, and the ability to easily switch to a scalpel, and it will take longer to decimate their influence, but this is going so brilliantly, he seems to remember and anticipate it all just fine.
Don’t miss this relevant article published today:
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2025/04/there_s_nothing_free_about_free_trade.html
Here’s the background. Idiots on full display.
Hosted by your friendly comrades at AP
That guy is completely insufferable. I can’t even watch that. What an idiot.
Horsford, Congressman out of the Henderson, Nevada area – a suburb of Las Vegas, where the California democrats all moved to in order to get away from California’s high taxation and regulation – and brought their voting habits with them. ‘Red’ States – don’t let the Californians turn your State ‘purple’.
Judging by the shift of power in Nevada over the past 10 years, I can say that the rapid shift from red toward blue is signicantly more complicated and problematic than just what has taken place down south. So it cannot be blamed solely on LosVegasites, or the Californicationite migrants.
However, I agree with you that the above is a LARGE PART of the problem, but there is more, which has a lot to do with Northern Nevada, its population distribution, Mail in Voting, and the usual corruption that plagues voting systems in general nationwide.
For instance, Washoe County is also home to quite a lot of left leaning folks, (many from California) and is also a power that strongly influences statewide elections.
Most other Northern Nevada counties are predominantly Red, but we also have a considerable number of left leaning voters here, too.
Regarding the voting systems here, it is a BIG problem as it is all done with machine counting.
The county I live in usually makes quick work of it, and offers the option to vote in person, but the machines are used for voting and tabulation. As we learned in the aftermath of 2020, this is also a HUGE NATIONWIDE PROBLEM, driven by Secretaries of States, State Legislators, and quite a few other factors.
In other words, the levers of power are many and do not rely solely on red or blue population factors as long as voting systems are corrupt.
In a nutshell, we must fix the nationwide voting systems to help insure clean elections across the country.
I wish I knew how that could be accomplished.
I apologize for going off topic from the headline article. Still, vote integrity is a big part of all of our lives, and has its effects on all political outcomes.
I’m on social media this morning watching Communist Democrats advocate for Communist China. It’s a spectacular thing to watch and mention. The very few that take the bait and reply are immediately stuff in their Communist hole. I’m having way too much fun with this.
I noticed the same thing. Commies love commies. It’s to be expected, sadly.
Yes! Try turning off the volume and you’ll really notice they are nothing more than paid orangutans with flapping arms, flashing eyes, bared teeth, anything to be perceived as especially angry, and the job seems to be getting harder given the pace and the stances expected in their daily morning emails.
Trump must have been laughing anytime Chuck Schumer raised his fist in the air, but even Chuck seems defeated with the latest morning memo, ‘Be a Commie Sympathizer!’
Sundance, thank you for your good insights into the upcoming negotiations.
There is more than one way to move trade toward balance (my son and I discussed the ways in our American Thinker commentary this morning entitled “Forbears of Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs“). Yesterday, at least temporarily, Trump shifted from the way my father, son and I had recommended (applying a tariff proportional to the trade deficit) to two ways that have been recommended by others:
1. Trump is implementing the method recommended by Democrat leaders in 1985 and 1987. They wanted to enact a big stick which would force trade-surplus countries to negotiate reductions in their trade surpluses with the U.S. (Negotiating from strength has always been Trump’s forte.)
2. Trump is now doing what two prominent economists (Peter Morici and Peter Navarro) have been suggesting for decades. He is isolating China and forcing China to completely change its economic strategy. Many countries have been copying China for at least a decade. They may stop copying China now.
In the meantime, Trump’s base tariff of 10% will continue the movement of factories to the U.S.
You didn’t think the world trade arrangement ripping us off for so many decades would let us off the hook and allow us to fix that THIS easily, did you?
“The U.S. bond market is significantly larger than the U.S. equity (stock) market, with the bond market valued at approximately $46 trillion compared to the equity market’s valuation of around $41 trillion. This makes the bond market a crucial component of the overall financial landscape, often exceeding the size of the equity market.”
Trump didn’t care that the stock market was crashing. Bond yields were the ‘pain point’ that finally got him to pause tariffs
April 9, 2025
https://fortune.com/2025/04/09/trump-didnt-care-that-the-stock-market-was-crashing-bond-yields-were-the-pain-point-that-finally-got-him-to-pause-tariffs/
President Trump didn’t seem especially bothered by the epic fall in stock prices following his unveiling of extremely high and far, far loftier than anticipated tariffs in early April. [he shouldn’t be – the markets are WAY overvalued – see below – W] Instead, his main focus is and has long been a different measure: He is obsessed with rates on 10-year Treasury bonds. To him, this is the measure that matters because so many things are tied to that benchmark: It’s a big factor in setting car loans, mortgage rates, credit card rates, and also determines the “base rate” that companies pay on their crucial long-term borrowings. Rob Arnott, founder and chairman of Research Affiliates, a firm that oversees investment strategies for $150 billion in investment funds, puts it bluntly: “Trump cares more about the 10-year Treasury than about the stock market,” he says.
Virtually since his inauguration, Trump’s been pushing to bend the Fed to his will and help bring down rates. On March 19, the POTUS issued a post on Truth Social exhorting: “The Fed would be MUCH better off CUTTING rates as U.S. tariffs start to transition their way into the economy.”
In fact, in the first few days of the market meltdown, Trump seemed to be getting his way. By April 4, the 10-year Treasury yield had dropped 3.86%, its first sub-3% reading since October, and a giant drop from the 4.4% level toward the end of March. Trump seemed to be reckoning that though the payoff from tariffs would take time, Americans while waiting would gain big benefits from borrowing costs that looked like a relative bargain.
That scenario was short-lived; 10-year Treasury yields went on a seldom-witnessed tear starting on April 5, surging over 600 basis points to 4.5% by the morning of April 9. The news for companies mirrored the downer for consumers: Credit spreads on investment-grade corporate bonds jumped by just under 1% to 1.2% in early April, and the premium on high-yield offerings expanded by 25%, from 347 to 461 basis points.
Why did yields spike so much? Because the tariff jolt freaked investors across the board. Overnight, foreign participants in particular reckoned that America had suddenly careened from a welcoming (and historically highly-enriching) venue for parking their funds, to hostile territory. As John Cochrane, an economist at the Stanford Graduate School of Business, put it to me: “Do U.S. government bonds look like a better or worse place to invest your money than a month ago?”
Foreign institutions, individuals, and sovereign funds own a staggering $10 trillion, or roughly 33% of all U.S. Treasuries. The U.S. is highly dependent on their conviction that America is the world’s best place for their savings. Arnott of Research Affiliates is particularly concerned about China’s potential power in our financial markets, courtesy of its huge holdings of U.S. Treasuries. If they are big sellers, bond prices will tank, and yields (which move inversely to prices) will spike, a sure way to get under Trump’s skin. “I think the Chinese government has read The Art of War, which has been Trump’s bible for life,” Arnott says. “Gosh, you don’t think someone would want to play that card, do you?”
It’s Official, the Everything Bubble is Beginning to Blow Up [note that this source has always been a chicken little – W]
Apr 09, 2025
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2025-04-09/its-official-everything-bubble-beginning-blow
It’s official, the Everything Bubble is beginning to blow up.
The single most important market in the entire world is the bond market. As I laid out in my best-selling book The Everything Bubble, politicians promise, but bonds deliver. What I meant by this is that low bond yields are the ONLY thing that has allowed the U.S. to engage in [deficit/bond funded – W] rampant stimulus/social spending over the last 50 years.
If bonds were to ever revolt in the U.S., like they did in Greece in 2011, it’s GAME OVER.
I bring all of this up, because this process is starting to happen.
High yield corporate debt is the “canary in the coalmine” for the bond markets. It is the riskiest type of debt out there. So, when things start to go bad, it’s the first to roll over.
The canary is dead [nah, wounded – W] as of last week. This market is coming under extreme duress. [it will probably recover for now – W]
Actually, the only thing that accomplish a proper reset at this point is a gut wrenching worldwide depression with massive bankruptcies which will “extinguish” the vast amounts of accumulated debt. But you can be sure that in that “Great Reset” [aka “Great Taking”] that the manipulators have prepared for all along, we peons won’t be the winners.
The stock market deserves to crash, but what has pumped it up WAY beyond its true value was the fedgov deficit spending enabled by BONDS which are bought by investors funding that debt via what are effectively interest bearing LOANS.
“In 2024, the U.S. government is projected to spend a record $1.2 trillion on interest payments for its national debt, which has significantly increased due to higher borrowing costs and ongoing budget deficits. This amount surpasses military spending for the first time in history, reflecting the growing financial burden of the national debt.”
Tariff Freak Out: Why So Many People Cling To The Cancer Of Globalism
April 9, 2025
https://alt-market.us/tariff-freak-out-why-so-many-people-cling-to-the-cancer-of-globalism/
In every instance since the crash of 2008 when the markets have shifted into correction territory, the central bank has stepped in to prevent a natural reversal. They print tens of trillions of dollars in fiat from thin air and then pump it into banks and international corporations in order to kick the can down the road for a little while longer.
The Dow Jones gained over 15,000 points in less than four years after the initial covid crash in 2020 (this is unheard of in a normal economy). ALL of these gains are connected directly to stimulus programs and subsequent inflation initiated by the Federal Reserve (cycled through the Yen carry trade and stock buybacks, among other pathways). They have been manipulating stocks into a condition of perpetual inflationary gains – But a reckoning has arrived in the shape of stagflation and it’s killing America slowly.
If stocks cannot survive without a constant flow of recycled fiat to prop them up, then the markets are not real. I suggest that the Dow Jones needs to undergo at least another 10,000 points in decline before valuations are grounded in some kind of reality, and that’s being generous. Some deflation is necessary to bring back affordability.
April 10, 2025
Is the American Stock Market Overvalued?
https://www.estimite.com/post/is-the-us-stock-market-overvalued/
The American stock market currently appears to be overvalued by 52%. In other words, it would take a 34% drop to bring the market back to its long-run equilibrium level. In comparison, at the peak of the Dot-com bubble, on March 24, 2000, the market was 88.5% overvalued. When the market bottomed out 2.5 years later, it had dropped 50.2% from its previous all-time high and was undervalued by 21.3%.
Here’s a GREAT freeview documentary. His fix is not described other than passing this along to educate more people and preparing (he doesn’t say how) for the eventual collapse of this system.
The Biggest Scam in the History of Mankind (our financial system)
2013 · 30 min
TV-14
Documentary
Mike Maloney presents a fascinating look at the Federal Reserve [and associated components -W], involving secrets that impact your finances as well as the world economy.
https://tubitv.com/movies/586976/the-biggest-scam-in-the-history-of-mankind
Watch this and you’ll end up knowing more than probably 99% of the people on the planet about the subject of MONEY:
Money as Debt I – Revised Edition 2009 (Full Movie) (46:20)
From “Money as Debt” which PROVES the following to be true in GREAT DETAIL.
What a FREAKING scam!
“Isn’t it astounding that despite the incredible wealth of resources, innovation and productivity that surrounds us, almost all of us from governments to companies to individuals are heavily in debt to bankers. If only people would stop and think, “How can that be? How can it be that the people who actually produce all the real wealth in the world are in debt to those who merely lend out the money that represents the wealth?” Even more amazing is that once we realize that money really is [created from the issuance of loans – W] debt, we realize that if there was no debt there’d be no money. If this is news to you, you are not alone. Most people imagine that if all debts were paid off the state of the economy would improve. It’s certainly true on an individual level. Just as we have more money to spend when our loan payments are finished, we think that if everyone were out of debt there would be more money to spend in general. But the truth is the exact opposite. There would be no money at all. There it is. We are totally dependent on continually renewed bank credit for there to be any money in existence. No loans, no money.”
“Banks create [via the issuance of loans/debt -W] only the amount of the principal. They don’t create the money to pay the interest. Where is that supposed to come from? The only place borrowers can go to obtain the money to pay interest is the general economy’s overall money supply, but almost almost all that overall money supply has been created exactly the same way, as bank credit that has to be paid back with more than was created. So everywhere there are other borrowers in the same situation frantically trying to obtain the money they need to pay back both principle and interest from a total money pool which contains only the principal. The big problem here is that for long-term loans such as mortgages and government debt, the total interest far exceeds the principle, so unless a lot of extra money is created to pay the interest, it means a very high proportion of foreclosures and a non-functioning economy. To maintain a functional Society, the rate of foreclosure needs to be low and so to accomplish this more and more new debt money has to be created to satisfy today’s demands for money to service the previous debt. But of course this just makes the total debt bigger and that means more interest must ultimately be paid resulting in an ever escalating and inescapable spiral of mounting indebtedness. It is only the time lag between money’s creation as new loans and its repayment that keeps the over over all shortage of money from catching up and bankrupting the entire system. However as the bank’s insatiable credit monster gets bigger and bigger, the need to create more and more debt money to feed it becomes increasingly urgent.”
About that last paragraph, what that results in BY NECESSITY is an EXPONENTIAL increase in debt.
The downward blip starting at 2007 and resulting in a curve slope reduction was the Global Financial Crisis where debt was eliminated (“extinguished”) via bankruptcies.
Eventually, the slope of the curve which indicates the need for additional debt will be so high that new debt can’t be created fast enough.
Who benefits most from massive deficit spending?
National debt by year
Total debt vs GDP [the comment is sarcasm]
Even GDP figures are inflated.
The GDP formula can be expressed as GDP = C + I + G + (X – M), where C is consumption, I is investment, G is government spending, and (X – M) represents net exports (exports minus imports).
How actually productive is G?
Counting government debt expansion as income (GDP) is like an individual counting a new loan as income. All a loan does is pull future income forward; it doesn’t create income.
The creation of a vicious cycle that inevitably MUST collapse under its own weight.
In essence, it is a Ponzi scheme, and only those at the top escape intact.
Bessent’s background in, and intimate knowledge of, the bond market is exactly why VSGPDJT picked him.
So far, so good.
We will weather the economic storm with very experienced hands at the helm.
China was a WEF/NWO creation and puppet. Some believe the puppet cut the strings. Remember Soros announcing Xi as enemy No 1, and those tank movements near Beijing a couple of years ago plus Hu Jin Tao’s very public humiliation in being forcibly hauled out of the Party Congress, never to be seen in public again.
The puppetmasters are still hunched over their piles of ill gotten gains in Basel, Geneva, Amsterdam, Paris, and the City of London.
First round to Trump.
Next round . . .
There are still a lot of economic time bombs that can be exploded.
😍
A personally evocative biographical Bessant tidbit or two (from his All-In Podcast chat)
He approached PDJT in 2023 and volunteered to help him with his revolutionary Save America MAGA Project.
He said he hadn’t really known PDJT well before then BUT he had been a “Trump Family friend for 70 years”.
The CTH explanation of DJT’s trade policy is so crystal-clear, even a caveman like me gets it!
Wow – this is what you get, when you have a fearless man, tempered by decades of wisdom and experience,
Who has been tested by challenges few of us could even dream of having in our worst nightmares.
It all makes sense.
I can see that the President will be extremely busy on trade, May-June-July…
If you figure 1 nation per day, that’s nearly 90 days right there.
And trade will impact UKR negotiations, and vice-versa.
This is incredibly important… now I see why DJT isn’t too concerned with the Blonde AG & Ca$h-n-Carry… that may be basically a holding action – lots of ‘lights, camera, 🎥 action!’
Until he can focus on that more intently.
Plus, he gives them pretty much authority and responsibility over the next 2-3 months… to give them a chance to show what they can do.
Or don’t do.
The producer of The Apprentice has no compunctions about saying ‘you’re fired’.
As DJT says, “we’ll see what happens.”
The number of intense and prolonged discussions of trade between all the principals must have been fascinating.
I hope someone writes a book about it someday.
The “insufferable” Poilievre has to win an election, whereas Sheinbaum was just elected and has a cushion to soften the blow. She can act with silence and dignity. Poilievre has to speak up to counteract a bland internationalist globalist banker who lies through his teeth and wraps himself in a red maple leaf flag. Trump wants a weak Canada and so has given support to the foolish Liberal Carney.
Sheinbaum is between Scylla and Charybdis right now. Cartels to the left of her, US Marines to the right.
She doesn’t dare raise her head for fear of being the mole that gets whacked.
Sundance – Consider using the LastRefuge to REFRAME the discussion:
• From FTAs – “FREE Trade Agreements” that weren’t FAIR
• To TRAs – “Trade RESET Agreements” that REINDUSTRIALIZE through RECIPROCITY, REPARATIONS and REWARDS
I guess all of these negotiations are a foreign concept to the Throbbing Members of Congress. They only operate as their Paymasters/Blackmailers tell them to. If they do as they are told they still get to keep their side hustles and do not fear being ejected from “The Big Show” to again scratch out an existence as a peasant.
As I logged in the Brave newsfeed was loaded with popups selling “articles” from half assed rags about President Trump “manipulating the market to benefit His friends”.. Naturally this is the first notion at which their minds arrive..
Let’s not forget that the trade issue can be used to win friends for Trump’s position on the Ukraine-Russia conflict…its not just about the dollars and cents, its about the bigger picture.
Next request from PDJT to Mexican President Sheinbaum, “You need to contribute $$ to finishing the Wall on our border, Madam President!”
More like, hand over El Mencho.
Nuclear bombs on US soil? Oh, that’ll calm normal people down.
Most of the generational wealth in the country is held by people over 55 and they keep that wealth in 3 places: home values, stocks, and bonds.
I’m glad everyone is so cavalier about wrecking their lives with a) almost no time to recover (or none) and b) very limited job prospects for over 55 workers.
But nuclear bombs.
The country was forced into a service economy 30 years ago. A huge Intel plant in Colorado Sorings closed before it even started production and the Bush family shipped it to Taiwan. The response in the local economy was a move into service jobs, including government and govt adjacent. Particularly for ex military – beats being homeless.
If you crush the service economy, it’s no different than widespread shuttering of factories. To cover a lot of these cuts, figure you’ll need to build a new factory every day for 2 years just to try and keep pace.
I’m a big proponent of doing what needs to be done, but we have no model to try and predict what comes next.
Go watch Bessent’s interview on Tucker. He has NO IDEA what comes next. Only “well we have no choice”.
The strategy seems to be to deflate the balloon and not refill it. A recession, a big one.
Fun as it is to nuke a town – the power trip! – when a factory closes, all the small businesses around it close, too.
Believe it or not, the administration has been trying to get ahead of this factory capacity ball for some time.
They need a better crew of business executives to work with though.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/17/white-house-advisor-navarro-rips-kodak-executives-as-dumbest-ever.html
Agreed
First, all three of these assets are overvalued by historic measures. Overvalued from the exported dollars coming back to bid up US assets because we don’t produce enough real stuff.
Second, the policy goal is to significantly reduce our trade deficit. Doing so will ‘increase’ the value of US dollar internationally and bring back real wealth-producing jobs to the US. So, there are more real jobs and higher international purchasing power for the US dollar.
This ‘also’ requires the government to balance the budget or at least match what remains of our trade deficit or the new currency will not be exported and thus cause domestic inflation unless met with more real wealth production. Basically, the three legs of the stool.
That path we were on just 80 days ago was not sustainable based on simple math. Massive government deficits, massive trade deficits and limited real wealth creation.
The damage done is going to take at least a decade to make a serious dent in as well.
OK, you kinda answered the mail here in terms of my primary concern. If, by your assessment, those assets are over inflated, what is the OPPOSITE of INFLATED?
DEFLATED.
And what is the economic term for an economy that is DEFLATED?
Recession. The only fix to this is a heavy dose of DEFLATION – a government precipitated recession or depression (depending on the magnitude of the inflation you describe).
How many people work in the housing market and what is the impact on them if home values plummet 30%? What do we call a mortgage that is worth more than the value of the home? (Hint: “underwater”). What happens to people in the service economy who lose their jobs and have an underwater mortgage that they cannot escape? (mortgage default). What happens to people who default on their mortgage? THEY LOSE THEIR HOME.
What savings do they fall back on if they’ve been saving as Americans have been encouraged to save for the past 40 years, and those assets are now also worth a lot less?
See my point? In our glee to “win”, we sound callous. Sure, we dropped a nuclear bomb on America, but it only affects the bad people right? No good people will be affected by 500,000 newly unemployed service workers. Do I have that right? Or are we just chalking all those people up as acceptable losses?
I think you have a responsibility to tell people the truth. You don’t know how this is going to turn out, and it might turn out very badly. Even if in the hypothetical long run things get better, we’re talking maybe a 1-3 year recession. Will that be like ‘81? Have you told anybody this?
And to my original point, how many people aged 55 and up do you anticipate being able to shift into manufacturing jobs AND WHEN AND WHERE? Oh, right, you don’t know…do you think maybe you might want to tell people that?
You sound angry?
😁
Unrelated response:
Hat tip, Sundance, for your focus on the power of “The Reset Queue”!
No, I think the comm strategy needs to change. I would genuinely like to know the plan for 55+ workers whose savings could be in serious jeapardy, job prospects depleting, and home values depressed.
It’s all a little too trusty planner to me. I’m like, “What? Do we not have enough homeless vets?”
Sound like u just realized u have wasted all ur money paying 25% interest on ur debit instead of holding off instant gratification.
Uh no. Other than my home mortgage at 2.5%, I have zero consumer debt. No revolving credit card balance. No car loans. Our newest car is 8 years old and we practice good maintenance to make them live a long time. We put aside money when the kids were born. Those small college funds, combined with great parenting, led to scholarships and no student loan debt. Well, tr nicely, they have a student loan, but the college fund off sets the payments. Net of $0.00.
It is entirely possible for a human being to be genuinely concerned about other Americans.
I’ll be fine. A lot of people I know in the service economy? Not so much.
We need more Dave Ramsey and fewer nuclear bombs.
.
The shuttering of factories does not necessarily equate to the demolition of factories.
Facilities that are in existence — but currently in hibernation mode — can readily be converted to today’s needs.
Warp Speed the economy, Mr. President!
Ah, tell that to all the people hired in Colorado Springs to work for Intel in the early 2000’s before the Bush family shipped their jobs to Taiwan. It’s even better than not being demolished. There is today, 20+ years later, a massive empty building on the west side of the city where a nice big beautiful factory was to be. They’re not even talking about reoccupying it. The city is trying to set aside land on the SE side of town to maybe hopefully get in on the repatriation of the silicon chip industry. Figure…what…3 years to build a new plant, longer to hire and train the employees.
Drive around Bethlehem, PA and tour all the disintegrating steel mills. You don’t have to demolish a building to destroy a way of life.
I’m beginning to think Sundance is literally a genius, as in a genius-genius, except with the drive of a Patton and tenacity of a bulldog.
“cue”? Do you mean queue?
RE “As a consequence, I would not look for too much emphasis on the EU as a collective trade partner because the assembly just represents too many interests. I would anticipate President Trump framing FTA’s for each nation within the union and then letting the predictable and internal bitch-fest in Brussels stew; let them work it out.”
President Trump will be limiting entry into THE QUEUE to Nation States.
• EU Member-Nations can enter, but the EU cannot.
—> Those with National-Sovereignty Leaders will enter.
—> EU Poodle-States will remain on the sidelines … until they change Leadership
… Namely France, Germany and Romania
• BRICS Member-Nations who enter will be facing Deal Prerequisites that undermine Unity.
—> Zero-Tolerance for operating as China-Export Intermediaries to evade Tariffs
—> Support for USA Reindustrialization
—> Purchases of US Energy to Rebalance Trade
—> Investment in US Treasuries
… Brazil & Malaysia – “Trying to Negotiate”
… India, Indonesia & Thailand plus “Invited-Member” Vietnam – “Offered Concessions”
Perhaps President Trumps actual target is the NWO EU, those who serve it and those it serves rather than its victims….
including China?
“and those it serves.”
Yep.
Very interesting developments in color revolutions right now ; )
FYI- it’s queue, not que.
🙂
Interesting that Sundance referenced AMLO. Despite being, supposedly, a socialist, AMLO consistently made good decisions for Mexico. He also maintained good relations with President Trump, such as allowing Trump to force non-Mexican illegals to “remain in Mexico” as he invoked Title 42.
AMLO was also glaringly tardy to recognize Biden as pResident. He waited til the bitter end to do so.
waiter there’s a wire in my plain rice cake!
“In essence, President Trump detonates, Bessent controls the immediate aftermath.”
The key word is “controls”.
Ironically, the small investors who I heard from, the ones concerned about their money that they need for their son’s future, and didn’t know what to think about what was going on, asked me the question, if President Trump’s ideas are so great, why is it that the only ones saying so all work for him, and she sent me the statement from Bill Ackman, as an example of someone who is not anti-Trump, but still thought that the President might be going about it the wrong way.
So, does that make her “whiny” or does that make her right?
Calling the people who have concerns names, because they didn’t know what was going on, and neither did the people doing the name-calling. Sheesh.
“Whiny” or “right”?
Or perhaps neither?
Perhaps just a ” panican” who is choosing to reject President Trumps good advice for some unknown reason?
Stop pretending.
Stop thinking with your feelings.
Stop watching the MSM.
One of the greatest lies politicians from both sides have been telling this country for decades is, “We’re going to punish the evil, greedy, rich corporations with higher taxes! They need to pay their fair share! We’re doing this for the average citizen.” What a bunch of hog wash! The US Public have been sold this bill of goods, and many others, because the great dumb masses do not realize that ALL TAXES are paid by the end user of products made by the big evil corporations. In other words. WE The People, individually, pay ALL TAXES. A raise in tax on a corporation is a raise in taxes for everyone who buys their product! The big boys, “Have accountants who pay for it all.” ~ Joe Walsh, The Eagles
The 3 biggest institutions wreaking havoc over the human race are man’s Religious, Political, and Mercantile institutions.
None of the three are interested in the true betterment of the common man – it’s all about control of the will.
Speaking of Greer and tip of spear, he was asked point blank by Sen. Warner if he was the tip of the spear when it comes to tariffs, so Warner would know whose neck to wring his hands around when the tariffs destroyed America. Greer said he was the tip of the spear regarding tariffs. Warner asked again whose neck, who is the tip of the spear, and Greer answered he was again.
Interesting to see after reading your comment.
China is the 21st century plantation that provides cheap slave labor to the WTO oligarchs sitting on the porches of their globalist chateaus, sipping mint juleps.
Sundance it’s not Poilievre that is insufferable. It is Mark Carney. Pierre has to be careful what he says until he gets elected. He is the Conservative candidate that will end up as Prime Minister if the Conservatives have enough seats to form the majority.
Mark Carney is trying to tie Pierre to President Trump. It’s BS. Pierre never insults President Trump. Only Trudeau does. Pierre had to announce retaliatory tariffs because if he didn’t, he would never get elected.
He wound rather fix the border, stop the crime and that would have been the end of it. He would have worked with President Trump right from the beginning and none of this would have had to happen to Canada.
That is my take, as well. Mark Carney is an anti-human Global Marxist. In short, he is more than happy to rule over the ashes of Canada, in fact, this is the WEF stooges’ marching orders.
Given the frayed emotions, Poilievre needs to play towards the national pride of Canadians and thus puts up a negative tone towards PDJT, (ie 51st state, other insults etc.)
At the same time, Poilievre wants a free and prosperous Canada and that means working closely with the US and not the WEF-controlled EU.
Still, one Canadian described it as sleeping next to an elephant.
Robert Norman Thompson, a Canadian politician and leader of the Social Credit Party of Canada from 1961 to 1967, is credited with saying, “The Americans are our best friends, whether we like it or not.”
“Pierre had to”….” in order to get elected”
And because he decided he had to do it in order to get elected, he likely will NOT get elected.
Fwiw….
Romney chose to call himself “Pierre” when making Anti Trump social media posts.
What an evocative and apropos coincidence.