A few days ago many critics were concerned over an announced pledge of U.S. State Department funding ($4.8 billion) for security and economic development in Mexico. However, CTH noted the approach was likely not what it seemed.
Those who followed the USMCA construct closely noted that U.S. President Trump (through Jared Kushner) and Mexican President Lopez-Obrador (through Jesus Seade) were doing something much bigger than a trade agreement; they were structuring an entirely new U.S-Mexico economic alliance.
With increased investment in central America by the Chinese government; and with Venezuela in a state of vulnerability to becoming a proxy therein; and with Brazil taking a more nationalistic approach; a completely new partnership which focused heavily on domestic security and economics was taking shape between the U.S. and Mexico. Throughout 2017 and 2018 the U.S. media was oblivious to it.
Then, two days ago, the U.S. State Department made public the principles of an economic alliance between the United States and Mexico. [See Here] The outline should be familiar: Economic Security is National Security.
Today Department of Homeland Security chief Kirstjen Nielsen told lawmakers that migrants heading to the southwest border to seek asylum in the United States will have to wait in Mexico until their claims are processed, under an agreement between the two countries:
Secretary Nielsen is confirming exactly what we suspected.
Rather than fight internally for short-term solutions to long-term immigration problems, President Trump has gone directly to the heart of the issue. Invisible in the background, to all but those who follow closely, President Trump has been structuring a comprehensive optimal solution to the border crisis; and he has been doing it for over a year.
Outline – […] Promoting Prosperity, Good Governance, and Security in Central America: The United States and Mexico will continue government cooperation and coordination to enhance security, governance, and economic prosperity in Central America, complementing the Northern Triangle countries’ Plan of the Alliance for Prosperity. The United States is committing a total of $5.8 billion in support of institutional reforms, development, and economic growth in the Northern Triangle from public and private sources. The United States and Mexico will also work with the U.S. and Mexican private sector and multilateral development banks to promote investment and economic development in the Northern Triangle. We will leverage the resources of U.S. and Mexican international development finance capabilities to better target investments in the region.
Cabinet-level Meeting and High Level Taskforce: The Governments of the United States and Mexico will convoke a cabinet-level meeting in late January 2019 to agree on a strategic framework for our cooperation in Central America to address root causes of migration. The United States and Mexico will establish a high-level taskforce to facilitate design and implementation of cooperation and monitor progress on advancing our common objectives.
Investment in Southern Mexico: The United States and Mexico will strengthen coordination with the private sector and development institutions to expand infrastructure and generate employment opportunities in southern Mexico. The government of Mexico has announced the largest development commitment in decades in southern Mexico to include $25 billion over 5 years. The United States, for its part, through the Overseas Private Investment Corporation, is focused on private and public investment in Mexico totaling 4.8 billion, to include committing $2 billion for suitable projects in southern Mexico. The United States will seek to leverage public and private investment in Mexico and is exploring options of further investment in dialogue with the government of Mexico.
Bilateral Business Summit: The United States and Mexico will convoke a business summit in the first quarter of 2019 with participation by a broad range of U.S., Mexican, and international private sector representatives to increase investment and business opportunities in Mexico with a special focus on southern Mexico and the Northern Triangle. (more)
As we have been sharing for quite some time, it was obvious there was an agreement of this sort long before the USMCA was finalized and made public.
As part of an agreement with President Lopez-Obrador, [insert Jared Kushner here] funds will be used to secure Mexico’s border effectively cutting-off the Central American migration flow before it can reach the Southern U.S.
This approach is entirely a Win/Win. With China seeking to influence North America, a stronger economic alliance between the U.S. and Mexico can be a jaw-dropping game changer globally. This joint approach is entirely in line with nationalist AMLO’s objectives for a larger and more stable economy within Mexico specifically by partnering with nationalist U.S. President Trump toward that common goal [See USMCA details].
If President Trump cannot get congress to secure the U.S. border, a problem that has become generational in scale, he can damn sure leverage and entice President Lopez-Obrador to do comprehensibly. This approach is actually far more than just simply securing the border; this approach is a geopolitical alliance with ramifications as significant as President Trump’s Indo-pacific strategy (India, Japan, ASEAN).
This approach is as pragmatic as it is strategic. POTUS Trump is working on optimal solutions while encountering domestic political roadblocks. This is exactly what President Trump does…. find solutions.
President Trump can sit around righteously fighting with the swamp over the security issues (historic political approach); or he can fight the swamp while simultaneously deploying a solution that mitigates the issue at its root cause (thinking outside the box).
What would a businessman president do?
President Andres Manuel Lopez-Obrador’s first visit to the White House will be epic.