Yesterday President Trump called Xi Jinping; CTH noted the pattern. The reason – today President Trump would be messaging toward Beijing. [There is a difference between talking to Xi Jinping, and talking to Beijing.] Well, did anyone notice President Trump referencing the post WWII “Marshall Plan” today during his U.N. Speech?
Beijing’s diplomatic spokesman Lu Kang said Tuesday that China places value on the Sept. 19 joint statement of the six-party talks, South Korean news agency Yonhap reported. (link)
August 21st: […] “Don’t be surprised to hear of those “six party talks” within days or weeks. And don’t be surprised to hear of the potential for direct talks and direct engagement with North Korea either by South Korea or Japan, or by…. wait for it, yup Godzilla Trump via T-Rex.” ~ Sundance
It is our position that while the DPRK is technically an independent nation; in reality, and in quintessential economic terms, North-Korea is more accurately defined as a province of China, and not an independent nation. What China authorizes Kim Jong-un (North Korea) to do, Kim Jong-un does. “Dear Leader” Kim Jong-un is better described as a provincial governor, who serves a specific function as a tool against the West.
History will observe the key date for President Trump’s strategic victory over North Korea was achieved on August 5th, 2017. That’s the original date when Russia and China agreed to the U.N. Security Council’s economic sanctions against North Korea. That first, historic, Russia and China U.N. Security Council vote against North Korea came as a result of eight months of assembled economic leverage created by President Donald Trump.
As a result of President Trump’s strategy, every time North Korea’s Kim Jong-un takes an action, President Trump hits China’s Xi Jinping with an additional economic action. As Beijing feels the squeeze, they tell Kim Jong-un to act. Every time Kim Jong-un acts, President Trump squeezes Beijing with more economic pressure. Wash-Rinse-Repeat.
Communist Beijing has boxed themselves into this inescapable cycle. The reason they keep authorizing Kim Jong-un to take action is simply because China has no alternative leverage to use against President Trump. China has nothing in their economic arsenal they can use to hit back against President Trump, so Beijing keeps using North Korea in an attempt to create leverage.
However, President Trump doesn’t play along with the bluff, he knows every card China is holding. Trump knows China has no substantive economic leverage against the U.S., and Trump also knows China has boxed themselves into this cycle.
It’s a ridiculous three step process:
¹China tells DPRK to do stupid thing. ²DPRK does stupid thing. ³Trump hits China with economic punishment for stupid thing.
This cycle has been ongoing for months now, yet the media apparently doesn’t notice it. Each time Kim Jong-un, aka “Rocket Man”, does a stupid, Donald Trump slaps Xi Jinping.
For those wondering about war or military conflict with North Korea, relax. Again, as we have repeatedly shown, it’s just not part of the Trump Doctrine to use the military that way. If POTUS Trump was tipping the scales toward a military option, he wouldn’t be dismissively using the term “Rocket Man”. [Rocket Man = Gnat]
Trump’s tour-de-force, as keenly evident in the Trump Doctrine, is to use his own personal deal-making skills to advance U.S. objectives from the economic front lines and keep the military option visible but well in the rear.
If you have followed the foreign policy pattern of President Trump you immediately recognize he does not restrain himself to DC political customs or DC political norms. Indeed as Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi optimistically noted, President Trump can accomplish many things because he brings a unique perspective to the world of policy and diplomatic engagement. Later repeating: “He Can Do The Impossible“.
Additionally since we originally outlined the likely scenario for a restart of the ‘six party talks‘ (China, South Korea, Russia, Japan, North Korea and the U.S.), on August 13th, there has been some visible activity providing further evidence toward that end.
•Japan (Shinzo Abe) has stated they have “great confidence” in President Trump’s Asian national security approach. •South Korea (President Moon Jae-in) has stated they are “confident there will not be war again on the Korean peninsular“; •and they are willing to send a special envoy to North Korea to begin talks. •In addition, China has quietly removed the 71-year-old veteran diplomat, Wu Dawei, from the position of negotiator toward the DPRK, and replaced him with 58-year-old Kong Xuanyou. Kong is a long time Chinese diplomat in charge of Asian affairs and he speaks Korean.
All of this generally under-reported diplomatic activity has taken place [mid-August] while the American media was busy pushing Charlottesville narratives. But more importantly this activity took place while President Trump directed USTR Lighthizer to begin a section 301 trade investigation into China. POTUS Trump is ramping up the pressure on Chinese President Xi Jinping, but more specifically this action targets Beijing’s communist old guard who control both their economy and the DPRK behavior.
Additionally, into this uniquely Asian geopolitical dynamic we have India, and Prime Minister Modi, apparently finding some new energy to push back against their neighboring nemesis China. Literal “pushing back“, heck they got into a fist fight.
Now, between Trump’s China trade action, and Modi’s regional geographic action, there appears to be a traditional squeeze play working out. It would be intellectually dishonest not to recognize the appearance of some coordination, especially given the plans for Ivanka Trump to travel to India next month. [*nudge, nudge* *wink, wink* say-no-more]
Here’s where it gets interesting.
When you understand that Beijing is really the support structure for Kim Jong-Un, in that China uses the DPRK to keep the Western (mostly U.S.) economic threats out of Asia, you realize it’s against Beijing’s interest for President Trump and Kim Jong-un to deconflict.
If diplomacy prevails in the Korean Peninsular, the historic economic arrow is gone from China’s quiver. Indeed, many would argue there’s no greater threat to China’s overall ‘One-Road/One-Belt’ economic program. With peace comes viable economic relationships. The ability of China to use the DPRK as a sweatshop for their economy would potentially and realistically collapse.
So Beijing would want to impede diplomatic efforts. It’s in their sneaky-self best interests; it’s also just how they roll. However, even though China controls much of the Washington DC swamp via purchased lobby activity, they can’t control Trump; and they certainly can’t control Trump’s diplomatic approach toward engaging a foreign government.
Therefore China’s default position would be for China to ‘control‘ any meeting between the U.S., South Korea, and/or Japan, with Kim Jong-un. When you recognize this, you recognize what that provides – MORE TRUMP LEVERAGE.
See how that works?
POTUS Trump knows it would be against Beijing’s interests for Kim Jong-un to meet a reasonable and non-political deal maker like President Trump. That knowledge only fuels the probability of such a meeting taking place.
In an effort to control such a possibility, China will have to move fast to cut off any back channel discussion between Godzilla Trump, T-Rex and Dennis Rodman’s BFF Kim Jong-un. Hence, we discover the motive for Beijing working to quickly get Kong Xuanyou, the new emissary, into place. China is simply trying a better play for control by putting ‘six party talks’ back on the table.
Don’t be surprised to hear of those “six party talks” within days or weeks. And don’t be surprised to hear of the potential for direct talks and direct engagement with North Korea either by South Korea or Japan, or by…. wait for it, yup Godzilla Trump via T-Rex.
President Trump isn’t constrained to DC political customs and diplomatic outlooks of non-engagement with North Korea. Don’t be surprised if he doesn’t make a move within the next 30 days toward those ends.
After all, almost every bit of recent activity in Asia dovetails nicely with the position as it appeared only a little more than a week ago: August 13th:
However, President Trump cannot be completely open with the strategy because part of the long-term plan is to allow China to save face by giving up North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.
It would be against Trump’s interests if the entire global and geopolitical community understood what was happening.
So the question becomes, how will we know when President Trump has won in the economic and national security challenge? Well, first let’s look at the geopolitical landscape and the known and identified calendar to view the goal timeline:
♦We know President Trump is planning to attend an ASEAN meeting in November.
♦We also know that President Trump is planning to visit China later this year. Most likely that trip will be part of the ASEAN engagement.
So it makes sense that President Trump would like to conclude the outline of the economic diplomacy by the time of the ASEAN and China visit – such that: A.) President Trump can outline the agreement and stroke the panda’s ego on his turf; and B.) President Xi Jinping can announce his magnanimous victory on behalf of great Panda’s incredible achievement in providing great security to the world.
Meanwhile, just prior to the ASEAN/China meetup, President Trump’s secret weapon, Ivanka, who happens to be the most beloved American in China, is deployed to India to capture the world’s attention with Narendra Modi hugs.
President Modi is the “Trump Card” in the geopolitical economic gamesmanship. China is currently at odds with India’s rise to economic power; Ballywood is very hot in the U.S. right now; and a warm Modi – Trump economic relationship is a foil against China’s heavy-handed extortion of their economic partners.
Whoopsie sounds like the makings of a fork in China’s One Road/One Belt plan.
Again, President Trump holds all the economic cards. Just look at what he did to neuter Russia’s economy when everyone was paying attention to the bouncing laser dot on the wall. The American and Western media missed it, but President Trump moved the entire geopolitical world via a strategic energy platform.
Sip this next paragraph slowly to enjoy the strategery:
From OPEC (Saudi Summit) to the EU and Baltic States (Poland Pre-G20); to North African energy development via President Macron (Libya and Mali); to walking away from the Paris Climate agreement; to discussions with Theresa May on a bilateral trade deal; to massive shipments of coal to U.K. and France; to closing a deal to deliver Ireland massive amounts of Texas LNG; to our own internal U.S. energy production policy with pipelines, Oil, Coal and Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) etc.
President Trump used all of those “allied” relationships to lower global energy prices.
The bigger part of the ‘big-missed-picture‘ was how that energy strategy impacted adversaries like Russia, Iran etc. and simultaneously supported the larger America-First economic and geopolitical space.
President Trump thinks seriously long-term, and really BIG picture.
President Trump thinks so far out in front of his detractors they genuinely cannot fathom the sequential logic behind the day-to-day granular activity.
Yes, in large part this is what makes President Trump so enjoyable to watch politically. Just like the American media, our international adversaries and competitors have no reference point for a U.S. President that is entirely independent from influence.
So we can safely predict that sometime in late fall, most likely before the ASEAN visit timeline in November, President Trump and Rex Tillerson will be engaged in a new round of Six Party Talks, initiated by request of the increasingly desperate China.
China will structure the DPRK talking points to set up the meetings. This is a part of how China is allowed to save face and sets up the magnanimous Panda narrative.
The six party talks will be essentially a Marshall Plan of sorts for North Korea. Japan, South Korea, The United States, China, Russia and North Korea will enter into a set of negotiations publicly sold as engaging in diplomacy and reducing tension.
President Trump (or T-Rex) will sit on the patio complimenting Xi Jinping (or deputy), and Russian, Japanese and South Korean emissaries.
Meanwhile, in the conference room, Secretary Wilbur Ross, USTR Robert Lighthizer and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will play the role of Willy Wonka handing out the golden economic tickets to the representatives who all line up with their requests.
President Trump’s golf partner Shinzo Abe will already have his ticket, but he’ll play along. The only real negotiations will be between the U.S. Russia and China. Russia will be negotiating for higher regional energy prices to get their GDP growing again, and China negotiating to retain as much of the $500 billion trade surplus as possible.
The end result will be Kim Jong-un giving up his nuclear ambitions for good; the U.N. enters under carefully negotiated terms, and Big Panda promises to the world to be the magnanimous insurance policy therein. Everything between now and that outcome is optically chaff and countermeasures.
That’s essentially the way the bright economic and national security future looks today.
Then again, it might get brighter – gilded even.
After all, this is President Donald Trump we’re talking about.
♦President Trump Leverage Explained HERE
♦Six Party Talks Outlined HERE