Strategy – Will President Trump Break Norms and Arrange Meeting With Kim Jong-un? Indications Point Toward Yes…

An interesting article in the Washington Times poses a possibility of President Trump holding a deconfliction summit with North Korea –SEE HERE– And that begs a question of whether or not it’s actually plausible. I would state unequivocally yes, and here’s why.

If you have followed the foreign policy pattern of President Trump you immediately recognize he does not restrain himself to DC political customs or DC political norms. Indeed as Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi optimistically noted, President Trump can accomplish many things because he brings a unique perspective to the world of policy and diplomatic engagement. Later repeating: “He Can Do The Impossible“.

Additionally since we originally outlined the likely scenario for a restart of the ‘six party talks‘ (China, South Korea, Russia, Japan and the U.S.), on August 13th, there has been some visible activity providing further evidence toward that end.

•Japan (Shinzo Abe) has stated they have “great confidence” in President Trump’s Asian national security approach. •South Korea (President Moon Jae-in) has stated they are “confident there will not be war again on the Korean peninsular“; •and they are willing to send a special envoy to North Korea to begin talks. •In addition, China has quietly removed the 71-year-old veteran diplomat, Wu Dawei, from the position of negotiator toward the DPRK, and replaced him with 58-year-old Kong Xuanyou. Kong is a long time Chinese diplomat in charge of Asian affairs and he speaks Korean.

All of this generally under-reported diplomatic activity has taken place within the past week while the American media was busy pushing Charlottesville narratives.  But more importantly this activity took place while President Trump directed USTR Lighthizer to begin a section 301 trade investigation into China.  POTUS Trump is ramping up the pressure on Chinese President Xi Jinping, but more specifically this action targets Beijing’s communist old guard who control both their economy and the DPRK behavior.

Additionally, into this uniquely Asian geopolitical dynamic we have India, and Prime Minister Modi, apparently finding some new energy to push back against their neighboring nemesis China.  Literal “pushing back“, heck they got into a fist fight.

Now, between Trump’s China trade action, and Modi’s regional geographic action, there appears to be a traditional squeeze play working out.  It would be intellectually dishonest not to recognize the appearance of some coordination, especially given the plans for Ivanka Trump to travel to India next month.  [*nudge, nudge* *wink, wink* say-no-more]

Here’s where it gets interesting.

When you understand that Beijing is really the support structure for Kim Jong-Un, in that China uses the DPRK to keep the Western (mostly U.S.) economic threats out of Asia, you realize it’s against Beijing’s interest for President Trump and Kim Jong-un to deconflict.

If diplomacy prevails in the Korean Peninsular, the historic economic arrow is gone from China’s quiver.  Indeed, many would argue there’s no greater threat to China’s overall ‘One-Road/One-Belt’ economic program.  With peace comes viable economic relationships.  The ability of China to use the DPRK as a sweatshop for their economy would potentially and realistically collapse.

So Beijing would want to impede diplomatic efforts.  It’s in their sneaky-self best interests; it’s also just how they roll.  However, even though China controls much of the Washington DC swamp via purchased lobby activity, they can’t control Trump; and they certainly can’t control Trump’s diplomatic approach toward engaging a foreign government.

Therefore China’s default position would be for China to ‘control‘ any meeting between the U.S., South Korea, and/or Japan, with Kim Jong-un.  When you recognize this, you recognize what that provides – MORE TRUMP LEVERAGE.

See how that works?

POTUS Trump knows it would be against Beijing’s interests for Kim Jong-un to meet a reasonable and non-political deal maker like President Trump.  That knowledge only fuels the probability of such a meeting taking place.

In an effort to control such a possibility, China will have to move fast to cut off any back channel discussion between Godzilla Trump, T-Rex and Dennis Rodman’s BFF Kim Jong-un.  Hence, we discover the motive for Beijing working to quickly get Kong Xuanyou, the new emissary, into place.  China is simply trying a better play for control by putting ‘six party talks’ back on the table.

Don’t be surprised to hear of those “six party talks” within days or weeks.  And don’t be surprised to hear of the potential for direct talks and direct engagement with North Korea either by South Korea or Japan, or by…. wait for it, yup Godzilla Trump via T-Rex.

President Trump isn’t constrained to DC political customs and diplomatic outlooks of non-engagement with North Korea.  Don’t be surprised if he doesn’t make a move within the next 30 days toward those ends.

After all, almost every bit of recent activity in Asia dovetails nicely with the position as it appeared only a little more than a week ago: August 13th:

As we have outlined extensively, President Trump holds all of the cards in this economic and trade standoff. The U.S. is China’s customer and there’s a $350 billion trade deficit.

However, President Trump cannot be completely open with the strategy because part of the long-term plan is to allow China to save face by giving up North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.

It would be against Trump’s interests if the entire global and geopolitical community understood what was happening.

So the question becomes, how will we know when President Trump has won in the economic and national security challenge?   Well, first let’s look at the geopolitical landscape and the known and identified calendar to view the goal timeline:

♦We know President Trump is planning to attend an ASEAN meeting in November.

♦We also know that President Trump is planning to visit China later this year.  Most likely that trip will be part of the ASEAN engagement.

So it makes sense that President Trump would like to conclude the outline of the economic diplomacy by the time of the ASEAN and China visit – such that: A.) President Trump can outline the agreement and stroke the panda’s ego on his turf; and B.) President Xi Jinping can announce his magnanimous victory on behalf of great Panda’s incredible achievement in providing great security to the world.

::::smiling:::::

Yup.

Meanwhile, just prior to the ASEAN/China meetup, President Trump’s secret weapon, Ivanka, who happens to be the most beloved American in China, is deployed to India to capture the world’s attention with Narendra Modi hugs.

President Modi is the “Trump Card” in the geopolitical economic gamesmanship.  China is currently at odds with India’s rise to economic power; Ballywood is very hot in the U.S. right now; and a warm Modi – Trump economic relationship is a foil against China’s heavy-handed extortion of their economic partners.

Whoopsie sounds like the makings of a fork in China’s One Road/One Belt plan.

Strategery.

::::still smiling::::

Again, President Trump holds all the economic cards.  Just look at what he did to neuter Russia’s economy when everyone was paying attention to the bouncing laser dot on the wall.  The American and Western media missed it, but President Trump moved the entire geopolitical world via a strategic energy platform.

Sip this next paragraph slowly to enjoy the strategery:

From OPEC (Saudi Summit) to the EU and Baltic States (Poland Pre-G20); to North African energy development via President Macron (Libya and Mali); to walking away from the Paris Climate agreement; to discussions with Theresa May on a bilateral trade deal; to massive shipments of coal to U.K. and France; to closing a deal to deliver Ireland massive amounts of Texas LNG; to our own internal U.S. energy production policy with pipelines, Oil, Coal and Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) etc.

President Trump used all of those “allied” relationships to lower global energy prices.

The bigger part of the ‘big-missed-picture‘ was how that energy strategy impacted adversaries like Russia, Iran etc. and simultaneously supported the larger America-First economic and geopolitical space.

President Trump thinks seriously long-term, and really BIG picture.

President Trump thinks so far out in front of his detractors they genuinely cannot fathom the sequential logic behind the day-to-day granular activity.

Yes, in large part this is what makes President Trump so enjoyable to watch politically. Just like the American media, our international adversaries and competitors have no reference point for a U.S. President that is entirely independent from influence.

::::Yup, smiling::::

So we can safely predict that sometime in late fall, most likely before the ASEAN visit timeline in November, President Trump and Rex Tillerson will be engaged in a new round of Six Party Talks, initiated by request of the increasingly desperate China.

China will structure the DPRK talking points to set up the meetings.  This is a part of how China is allowed to save face and sets up the magnanimous Panda narrative.

The six party talks will be essentially a Marshal Plan of sorts for North Korea.  Japan, South Korea, The United States, China, Russia and North Korea will enter into a set of negotiations publicly sold as engaging in diplomacy and reducing tension.

President Trump (or T-Rex) will sit on the patio complimenting Xi Jinping (or deputy), and Russian, Japanese and South Korean emissaries.

Meanwhile, in the conference room, Secretary Wilbur Ross, USTR Robert Lighthizer and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will play the role of Willy Wonka handing out the golden economic tickets to the representatives who all line up with their requests.

President Trump’s golf partner Shinzo Abe will already have his ticket, but he’ll play along.  The only real negotiations will be between the U.S. Russia and China.  Russia will be negotiating for higher regional energy prices to get their GDP growing again, and China negotiating to retain as much of the $500 billion trade surplus as possible.

The end result will be Kim Jong-un giving up his nuclear ambitions for good; the U.N. enters under carefully negotiated terms, and Big Panda promises to the world to be the magnanimous insurance policy therein.  Everything between now and that outcome is optically chaff and countermeasures.

That’s essentially the way the bright economic and national security future looks today.

Then again, it might get brighter – gilded even.

After all, this is President Donald Trump we’re talking about.

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This entry was posted in ASEAN, China, Decepticons, Deep State, Donald Trump, Economy, Ivanka Trump, media bias, N Korea, President Trump, Russia, Secretary of State, Secretary Tillerson, Trade Deal, Uncategorized, US Treasury, USA. Bookmark the permalink.

165 Responses to Strategy – Will President Trump Break Norms and Arrange Meeting With Kim Jong-un? Indications Point Toward Yes…

  1. Long term means that from now on China “is” NK’s puppet master. Any barking by NK and China is responsible. Got it.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Bert Darrell says:

    If SD’s predictions RE a meeting of PDJT with the NorKo fat kid and other ASEAN personalities, it’ll prove that PDJT learned the “don’t let a crisis go to waste” approach when or before it became popular in the infamous Obama years to slip through nefarious actions.

    While the MSM was incessantly beating the Charlottesville fake news drums, he was negotiating key future meetings with friends and foes. I wonder if he has a waiting list so he can advance MAGA goals as the fake media unwittingly helps out.

    Liked by 3 people

  3. i'm just sayin'.. says:

    Liked by 4 people

    • carrierh says:

      Not hearing anything more from all the naysayers, are we? Embarrassed? Probably not but angry as can be that they did not forecast anything of value except their dislike/hate of a great leader. Sorry, you all, but you lost big time and didn’t have a clue or information why he WOULD WIN. We did and we voted for him.

      Liked by 4 people

    • Founding Fathers Fan says:

      Aren’t these the same people who believe in ‘global warming’? I have some tropical islands to sell you in the Arctic Circle.

      Liked by 2 people

      • tsforex says:

        Wow. Those islands didnt sink yet? Becareful make sure you balance the amount of people on each side. Dont want them to flip over. Makes for ugly landscaping!

        Liked by 1 person

    • kaste668 says:

      Some one should post the one of all these people the night he won. The only way they could all be that sure, was they knew the Dems had rigged the system. What they did not count on was the American People and GOD. Trump was never a joke. They tried to make him one, and they believed their own press and their own polls.

      Liked by 4 people

  4. alligatriot says:

    Thank you for another session in my “continuing education” studies of “How The World Works”!
    Your articles and insight, Sundance, spur me to do further research and as an added bonus, the folks who comment here have additional knowledge, perspective and experience to contribute!

    Mondays certainly look good when you survey the future with just a bit of positive information.

    “Breakfast in the Treehouse is the most important meal of the day!”

    Liked by 9 people

    • auntiefran413 says:

      I wish I could like this 100 times! It’s co very, very true. My gratitude to Sundance! I’m a political slow learner, but you’re bringing me up to speed.

      Like

  5. yy4u says:

    Interesting analysis.

    The definition of insanity is to keep doing what you’ve been doing but expecting different results.

    Paying off NK under the table while rattling sabres has achieved nothing. Why not try something different. Maybe it’s as simple as Kim Jong-un just wants “respect”. We see this all the time. Nations and people pretending to respect ridiculous people and countries just to keep them from doing something stupid. Why not try?

    Liked by 3 people

  6. winky says:

    With all these untapped resources that will make our country powerful and rich, I am sure that the the Clintons and Obama were lusting to control all of it while they sold our country out to enrich themselves…..lock the up.

    Liked by 1 person

  7. If President Trump does have a “face to face” with Kim Jong Un, “unprecedented” physical security measures should be in place. The NORK leader is just goofy enough to try and use the occasion to assassinate Trump. I wouldn’t put anything past the goofy little bastard.

    Like

  8. amwick says:

    Ok, I get it 🙂 … it took a while, but

    Like

  9. Lunatic Fringe, Phd. [undocumented] says:

    Glad to read that there may be a peaceful solution on this. I’ve mentioned before that if NoKo has such a badass military we should use them to our advantage to clear the sand people. Treaties and subcontractors, not wars!

    Liked by 1 person

  10. palafox says:

    Shouldn’t the understood agreement — for each of those countries listed — be to meet in Helsinki or Cape Town or somewhere far, far away from Pyongyang, and arrest J-U Kim as soon as he steps off the plane?

    Like

  11. psadie says:

    Okay sounds good but PTrump should send Sec. Mattis ahead of his meeting so he can smooth the way…

    “I come in peace. I didn’t bring artillery. But I’m pleading with you, with tears in my eyes: If you f**k with me, I’ll kill you all.” General James Mattis

    Hey North Korea are we perfectly clear on that???

    Liked by 1 person

  12. MfM says:

    I’m so grateful to Pres. Obama and Pres. Clinton and the ones in between. Why?

    If they has established these international relationships Trump wouldn’t be able to use them for bargaining chips!

    Like

  13. M33 says:

    There’s an old Vulcan proverb:

    “Only Trump could go to North Korea.”

    Like

  14. David R. Graham says:

    USA faces West, so China/Korea/Japan are West Asia to us. MacArthur was first to bring that reality to my attention. Sundance’s reasoning here springs from taking China/etc. in that perspective and I think it is accurate. It is certainly American. And if this is what POTUS Trump is doing, then he also sees China/etc. as West Asia, much to everyone’s benefit. USA is a Pacific nation, not an Atlantic one, or, only secondarily an Atlantic nation.

    The India connection I am particularly strong about. USA, India, Russia, three brothers regulating the next several centuries: http://theological-geography.net/?p=27675

    Like

  15. scott467 says:

    “As we have outlined extensively, President Trump holds all of the cards in this economic and trade standoff. The U.S. is China’s customer and there’s a $350 billion trade deficit.”

    ______________

    And the customer is always right!

    Or at least that’s what it says in the history books, and in old movies from before my time. Never actually seen that perspective myself… but I can dream!

    Like

  16. shannynae says:

    I just have to say this…..first of all, yes, this is coming from an emotional point of view rather than intellectual and yes, I am sick of war and sick of the loss of life of our beloved soldiers. That said, a part of me was hoping that Kim Jung Un would be wiped from the planet along with his military. I want the NK people to wakeup one morning and not be fearful, I want them to have food for them and their children, I want the 200,000 plus people that are held in gulags released from their hell. I fear that solving this real crisis through sanctions and talks and using China does not free the country nor help these people in any way. Am I wrong? One last thought, yes, I know that many innocents would have to die to free this country and yes that bothers me.

    Liked by 2 people

  17. scott467 says:

    “However, President Trump cannot be completely open with the strategy because part of the long-term plan is to allow China to save face by giving up North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. It would be against Trump’s interests if the entire global and geopolitical community understood what was happening.”

    _________________

    But they — the entire global and geopolitical community — they DO know, don’t they?

    I mean, everyone who is interested enough to care?

    The Chinese certainly must have figured out what DJT is doing. The Indians and Japanese and South Koreans have probably been informed by DJT personally what he is doing, and if not, they can certainly see what Sundance sees. They have lots of people in government who are paid to watch these things closely and figure them out. And if they can’t, then they can read it here, lol!

    And if people like Sarah Palin and Lou Dobbs read CTH, then the whole news media and everyone in the U.S. political-class with a stake in the outcome must ‘know’ what DJT is doing, because… people talk. They certainly have access to CTH, and CTH readers post links back to CTH articles all over the Interwebs. It may be a small footprint in the greater scheme of things, but everybody here found it… that’s why we’re here.

    So there must be a lot of people who ‘know’. And if that is the case, then what we’re really talking about, with regard to giving China an opportunity to ‘save face’, is that everyone who ‘knows’ what DJT is doing just aren’t talking about it publicly in political speeches or to the world at large via corporate propaganda megaphones, i.e., on the official multinational globalist consortium ‘news’ outlets.

    Which means the whole thing is a charade, to ‘hide’ reality from the general public who, for the most part, wouldn’t (and don’t) even care.

    The Chinese have to know what DJT is doing. So does everyone else in ‘diplomatic world’, and lots of people in ‘news’ media, and lots of regular people (e.g., us). Which essentially means that everybody who is interested enough to care already knows that China’s ‘face saving’ is not only gracious of DJT, but also part of the plan.

    But then there’s this: it’s one thing to discreetly help someone to ‘save face’, but if everybody (who has any interest) already knows that’s what is going on, then what’s the point?

    What ‘face’ is actually being ‘saved’?

    The general public is busy living their lives or watching Kardashians, they don’t care. And everybody who DOES care already knows. So what’s the point of the whole elaborate peacock dance?

    And besides all that… why does China care what anyone thinks?

    They don’t care what anyone thinks when they build islands to expand their military presence.

    They don’t care about ‘saving face’ when they arrest political prisoners or engage in all kinds of human rights abuses. So why do they care about ‘saving face’ over the Nork’s nukes?

    It’s sorta like a Mafia leader being concerned about proper etiquette at a dinner party. Everybody in the room knows who he is and what he does, and he knows they all know — if they didn’t, then he wouldn’t have the power of fear over them, and that’s half the fun of being a Mafia boss.

    So why does Mr. Mafia care if anybody sees him eat his steak with a salad fork?

    Like

    • svenwg says:

      The Chinese concept of “Face” is completely different to the Western outlook of being let off the hook gently. It means everything to them to maintain Face, they would rather kill themselves to avoid ‘losing face’ amongst their people firstly and the world secondary!!!

      Like

  18. Farmon says:

    Havent been on here in a long time. I’m SO grateful for these insights. SD obviously has a very keen sense of PDJT, and the MAGAnomics. Wow, need an intern? (and to think I’ve already had one career). One thing that this kind of winning gets me thinking more about though is entrepreneurship. Love getting our economic engine running again!!

    THANK YOU GOD!

    Like

  19. Sandra-VA says:

    Liked by 1 person

  20. MrE says:

    Sundance, I sincerely hope Jinping & Co don’t read here. 🙂

    Like

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