The National Hurricane Center is narrowing the forecast path of Hurricane Isaias, while strongly emphasizing the importance of preparation for a dangerous storm impact in the western Florida panhandle region and Mississippi delta.  Everyone in the area should pay close attention, inland flooding will be a concern.

Isaias is anticipated to intensify just prior to landfall over warm water overnight tonight and start moving forward very quickly.  This can push the wind driven water very severely into the northern Florida panhandle region and coastal area.  The storm surge can be very dangerous.  Coastal evacuations are beginning and all preparation should be rushed to completion.

[National Hurricane Center] – At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 87.3 West. Isaias is moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). This motion is expected to continue through this evening, followed by a northward motion on Saturday. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast this afternoon and make landfall within the warning area this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Isaias is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible through this afternoon, but Isaias is expected to be at or near major hurricane strength when it makes landfall this evening. Weakening is expected beginning tonight after Isaias makes landfall, and the storm is likely to become post-tropical by late Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). (more)

Communication is important.  Update your friends and family contact list. Stay in touch with family and friends, let them know your plans. Select a single point of contact for communication from you that all others can then contact for updates if needed.

CTH Recommendations for solid Prep ARE HERE

The buzzsaw for Isaias is approximately 70 miles at current conditions (35 miles from center).  This is the area of greatest wind damage.  Hurricanes spin counterclockwise. The coastal flooding will be most extreme on the right side of Isaias as the wind pushes the water toward the coastline.

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Hurricane Isaias continues nearly on the predicted track while the intensity forecast remains a challenge. No substantive changes to the overall thinking. Outdoor preparations and home-hardening in advance of the hurricane should be completed by early tomorrow. Inland residents should prepare for power outages due to excessively high wind gusts.

[National Hurricane Center] – At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Isaias was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 89.3 West. Isaias is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected on Friday. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula through this evening and make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast within the warning area late Friday or early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through early Friday, and Isaias should remain a dangerous hurricane as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast Friday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). (more)

A hurricane watch is in effect from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, to Indian Pass, Florida. A storm surge watch is in effect from the mouth of the Mississippi River in Louisiana to Yankeetown, Florida. {Nat Hurricane Center} Those in the forecast areas are strongly advised to pay close attention to local officials and heed all evacuation orders.

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Tropical Storm Isaias is forecast to track northeastward and quickly ramp up to a hurricane while over the central Gulf in the next several hours. Landfall along the central Gulf Coast is expected Friday night or Saturday morning as a strong Category 2 storm.  Residents in the FL panhandle, MS, LA and AL should pay attention to local forecasts.

A hurricane watch is in effect from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, to Indian Pass, Florida. A storm surge watch is in effect from the mouth of the Mississippi River in Louisiana to Yankeetown, Florida. {Nat Hurricane Center} Those in the forecast areas are strongly advised to pay close attention to local officials and heed all evacuation orders.

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Check your hurricane supplies of shelf-stable food, water, medicine and don’t forget pets.  Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.  Everything is replaceable, except you and your family.  We have a lot of Treepers in the path of this storm. If you need assistance, use the comments section of any ‘Isaias Update thread’ to reach out, or use the email address in the upper right of the site.

Right now, you are in control.  Have a solid plan, work that plan – stay busy, and don’t get caught up in the hysteria.  Try to avoid national media hype. Stay updated via your local news stations. Friday morning looks like the key day impact zones will be identified.  Reach out to your neighbors; touch-base and check to see if they are okay or need anything.  Community restoration begins before the storm arrives. Look out for each-other.

Remember the inland lessons in Tennessee and Western North Carolina from Hurricane Helene. Regarding any evacuation plan, please pay attention to your local officials who will be coordinating with state Dept. of Transportation.  As the path and impact zone of the storm becomes more predictable your local officials will alert to best route(s) for evacuation.

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According to most forecasters and the National Weather Service, a significant weather event begins tonight and will likely bring extreme snow and ice to much of the U.S. mainland.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE -…Major winter storm to begin impacting the Central and Southern Plains today, before moving into the Mid-South, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast this weekend… ♦Catastrophic ice accumulations are expected from the Southern Plains to the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic… ♦Dangerously cold temperatures set to expand across much of the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. through early next week.

[Interactive Map – NWS]

A significant winter storm is forecast to begin in the Southern Rockies and Central/Southern Plains today, progressing eastward through the Mid-South and into the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast through Monday. This is expected to produce large swaths of heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain, bringing hazardous driving conditions, power outages, and tree damage. The heaviest snowfall is expected across a large area, including parts of the Southern Rockies, Plains, and through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Snowfall totals are expected to exceed one foot in parts of these areas, and widespread travel disruptions are likely.

South of the snow axis, widespread freezing rain and sleet are expected, affecting the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, and much of the Mid-Atlantic. Catastrophic impacts are expected where freezing rain totals exceed half an inch, with over an inch expected in parts of Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, and the Southern Appalachians.

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With approximately 120 killed in the devastating floods, President Trump and First Lady Melania travel to Texas today to visit with those impacted.  The President and First Lady departed Joint Base Andrews earlier and RSBN will be covering the day’s events.

Together the first couple will survey damage, meet with the families of victims, and President Trump is expected to join local and state officials for a roundtable about current recovery efforts.

Video of the departure is below and RSBN ongoing livestream coverage is below the fold.

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A painful update from Kerr County officials in Texas.  The death toll has risen to 27, with 18 adults and 9 children killed. UPDATE: 32 killed. 18 adults and 14 children.

The region was beset by death and disaster on Friday after months’ worth of heavy rain fell in a matter of hours, leaving search teams to conduct boat and helicopter rescues in the fast-moving water that overtook riverfront communities and children’s summer camps.

The US National Weather Service declared a flash flood emergency for parts of Kerr county, located in south-central Texas Hill Country, following the heavy downpours.  Officials in Kerrville, Texas deliver an update press conference.

UPDATE 3:00pm CT – Officials in Texas called the severe flooding a “mass casualty event” and said between 23 and 25 people were still missing from a summer camp. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and other authorities provided an update.

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There are several summer camps currently with active search and rescue teams working through multiple areas in/around Kerr County, Texas.   The area around the Guadalupe River is directly impacted.

Devastating flooding from torrential rain has hit the area hard.  Officials from around the region are sending in assistance and resources to assist the local rescue teams.  The rescue work is ongoing using multiple assets.

(Via ABC) – Thirteen people have died after heavy rain pounded Kerr County, Texas, early Friday, leading to “catastrophic” flooding, the sheriff said.

Children are among the dead, said Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who has taken on the duties of acting governor.

There are several major camps in the area, and at one of them, Camp Mystic, about 23 of its 750 campers are unaccounted for, according to Patrick.

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The death toll continues to climb in Kentucky and Missouri as recovery efforts continue from a devasting night of tornados in the region.

LONDON, Ky. (AP) — Death toll from severe storms and tornadoes rises to at least 27, including 18 in Kentucky.

KENTUCKY/MISSOURI – […] Some of the hardest hit towns by large tornadoes Friday night in Kentucky were the Somerset area and London, where local officials reported nine people died amid significant damage.

The Laurel County Sheriff’s Office says the tornado touched down in London just before midnight and tore through two neighborhoods and the London Corbin Airport area, “causing mass casualties in its path.” Aside from the nine dead, officials reported “numerous severe injuries occurred to others.”

Video from London shows extensive damage with multiple homes destroyed and vehicles barely recognizable as debris littered the neighborhood and lightning still flashed in the background.

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Hollywood actor James Woods is one of a small group of honorable, decent, God-filled men of film and art.  Woods is also well known on social media for his snarky push back against the evil elements in the world of politics.

James Woods was at the epicenter of the Pacific Palisades fire when it began.  He evacuated with his wife, but it appears they have lost their home and all their belongings.  Friend of the Treehouse Peter Duke has posted some incredible images of the aftermath [SEE HERE]

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(Reuters) – […] Five separate fires burned in Los Angeles County, all of them 0% contained according to state officials, including a pair of conflagrations that held the city in a pincer move.

On the west side, the Palisades Fire consumed 15,832 acres (6,406 hectares) and 1,000 structures in the hills between Santa Monica and Malibu, racing down Topanga Canyon until reaching the natural fire break of the Pacific Ocean on Tuesday. It was already one of the most destructive fires in Los Angeles history.

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A massive California wildfire is consuming some of the most valuable property around Los Angeles.  The Pacific Palisades fire is expanding rapidly due to high winds and dry conditions.  Making matters worse, firefighters are having a problem with water shortages to fight the fire due to California environmental standards.

An ariel shot shows the extent of the fire last night, and the situation is rapidly worsening.  Firefighters are now focused on rescue efforts.

CALIFORNIA – A state of emergency has been declared in Los Angeles after a huge wildfire swept through hillsides dotted with celebrity homes.

The fire forced the evacuation of 30,000 people, some of whom abandoned their cars and fled on foot to safety.

Nearly 3,000 acres of the Pacific Palisades area between the coastal towns of Santa Monica and Malibu had burned by the Palisades Fire, officials said.  Fire officials said that several people were injured, some with burns to faces and hands.

A second blaze dubbed the Eaton Fire broke out some 30 miles inland near Pasadena and doubled in size to 400 acres in a few hours, the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection said.

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