While all attention is on the outcome of the national election, a storm notice for Florida is essential.

The National Hurricane Center is advising Florida east coast residents to prepare for hurricane conditions during the Wednesday overnight hours. [NHC Website]  Tropical Storm Nicole is moving quickly toward the Bahamas and will approach the Florida east coast late Wednesday.   Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency to release resources and trigger support mechanisms.

All Florida east coast residents should pay attention to local officials and state emergency management for guidance in advance of Nicole’s arrival.  All storm preparation should be rushed to completion within the next several hours.  Nicole is anticipated to deliver storm impacts far beyond the immediate hurricane zone.

(Nation Hurricane Center) At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 76.7 West. Nicole is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Thursday, and north or north-northeast on Friday.

On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will move near or over the Abacos and Grand Bahama in the northwestern Bahamas today and move onshore the east coast of Florida within the hurricane warning area tonight. Nicole’s center is then expected to move across central and northern Florida into southern Georgia Thursday and Thursday night, and then across the Carolinas Friday and Friday night.

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The National Hurricane Center is advising Florida east coast residents to prepare for hurricane conditions during the Wednesday overnight hours. [NHC Website]  Tropical Storm Nicole is moving quickly toward the Bahamas and will approach the Florida east coast late Wednesday.   Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency to release resources and trigger support mechanisms.

[NOTE: Florida West Coast – Nicole is a large system with tropical storm force winds extending for 380 miles from center.  For SWFL residents in the debris and recovery zone from Ian, the winds from Nicole will be coming from the North, starting soon. Keep this in mind when securing already destabilized structures, roof tarps, fences, debris etc. Anticipate tropical storm force winds arriving from the North tomorrow.]

(NHC) At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 72.7 West. Nicole is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A west to west-southwest motion should continue through Wednesday. A west-northwest motion is forecast to begin on Wednesday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north-northwest on Thursday and Thursday night.

On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will approach the northwestern Bahamas today and tonight, move near or over those islands on Wednesday, and approach the east coast of Florida within the hurricane warning area Wednesday night. Nicole’s center is then expected to move across central and northern Florida into southern Georgia Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next 36 to 48 hours, and Nicole is forecast to be near or at hurricane strength by Wednesday and Wednesday night while it is moving near the northwestern Bahamas and approaching the east coast of Florida. (more)

The majority of my advice below is for the Florida EAST COAST:

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There are only two words that come to mind as I write this notice from the Ian impact zone, “mercy” and “uncle.”  Prayers.

STS Nicole is anticipated to become a Cat-1 Hurricane as it approaches the southeast coast of Florida late Wednesday night. A Hurricane warning is in effect for the Northeast Bahamas, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the East Coast of Florida from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to Hallandale Beach. Residents along the Florida east coast should watch for updates [Hurricane Center Link].

If you are on the east coast of Florida, you should begin preparations today and tomorrow for the potential of high winds, power outages, coastal storm surge and inland flooding.  Georgia and South Carolina should also keep an eye on this.

Additionally, on the other side of the state, while Nicole is not anticipated to be a strong hurricane and will hopefully lose strength quickly as it moves over land, any tropical storm winds and rain along the southwest Florida areas (SWFL) previously impacted by Ian could be very troublesome.  Everything is tenuously held together in SWFL and there is massive debris and structural instability present as recovery efforts continue.  This is not good.

(NHC) – At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Nicole was located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 70.6 West. The storm is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected tonight. A turn toward the west or west-southwest is forecast to begin by Tuesday night and that motion should continue through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will approach the northwestern Bahamas on Tuesday and Tuesday night, move near or over those islands on Wednesday, and approach the east coast of Florida Wednesday night. (more)

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Many CTH readers know I have been involved in hurricane prep and recovery as a longtime member of a civilian emergency response team.  I have physically been through four direct hurricane impacts and responded to recovery efforts in more than fifteen locations, often staying for days or weeks after the initial event.

Through the years I have advised readers on best practices for events before, during and after the storm. In this outline my goal is to take the experience from Hurricane Ian and overlay what worked and what doesn’t work from a perspective of the worst-case scenario.

Hurricane Ian was a worst-case scenario.

Let me be clear from the outset, I am not advising anyone to put greater weight on my opinion or ignore local emergency officials or professionals in/around the disaster areas. What I am going to provide below is my own experience after decades of this stuff, against the backdrop of Ian, and just provide information that you may wish to consider if you are ever faced with a similar situation.

Hurricane preparation can be overlaid against other types of disaster preparation, there are some commonalities.  However, for the sake of those who live on/around the U.S. coastal areas where hurricanes have traditionally made impact, the specifics of preparation for this type of storm are more pertinent.  I’m going to skip over the basic hurricane preparation and get into more obscure and granular details, actual stuff that matters, that many may not be familiar with.

Let me start by sharing a graphic that you may overlay with the information you may have already seen from national media coverage.  The graphic below shows Hurricane Ian in relation to Southwest Florida and points to locations that you may have seen on the news.  The context of understanding Ian is going to be critical when contemplating preparation, so it must be emphasized.

This satellite image was likely taken around 4 to 7 pm on the evening of September 28, 2022, approximately three hours after Hurricane Ian officially made landfall at Bokeelia, a small community on the Northern end of Pine Island. All of my discussion below is from the ‘major impact zone’.

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Did you know that during hurricanes asphalt roofing shingles act like flying blades?  More on that momentarily….

Today Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was in the Punta Rassa area of South Fort Myers to celebrate a remarkable accomplishment.  The Sanibel bridges and causeway are open to civilian traffic. {Direct Rumble Link}

The massive, albeit temporary, repairs to the three spans and spoil islands have been completed three weeks after Hurricane Ian wiped them out.  A genuinely remarkable feat of engineering and git’ r done roughneck effort.  Truly an incredible accomplishment.  To check out the scale of it see PICTURES HERE.

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Today, Governor Ron DeSantis announced that emergency repairs to the Sanibel Causeway have been completed in 15 days, more than a week ahead of schedule. As of this morning, access to Sanibel Island has been restored for residents, reconnecting Sanibel Island to the mainland. WATCH:

“The work that has been done to restore vehicle access to Sanibel Island has been historic,” said Governor Ron DeSantis. “Cutting through bureaucratic red tape and delivering on our promise to get Sanibel Island up and running has been a top priority. By restoring access over the causeway, repair crews, first responders, emergency vehicles, business owners and residents will be better able to expedite recovery from this storm.”

“I am grateful for our dedicated team members who quite literally built a road in the Gulf in 15 days,” said FDOT Secretary Jared W. Perdue, P.E. “While the bridges were largely undamaged by the storm, portions of the causeway which connect bridge structures together were washed away by Hurricane Ian, leaving the bridges unconnected to the mainland or the island.

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[National Hurricane Center Link]  Tropical Storm Ian has remained moving mostly westward throughout the previous 12 hours pushing the projected U.S. impact cone slightly further North into the big bend area of Florida.  However, everyone on Florida’s west and gulf coast should pay close attention, and residents in Louisiana, Mississippi and the Alabama coast should not dismiss this storm.

With more favorable conditions for storm development, TS Ian is now projected to intensify and be a major hurricane prior to arrival on the west coast of Cuba. That is a significant shift in the intensity forecast.  However, with the westward shift, the timeline is now delayed (see map below).  All U.S. gulf coast residents should be taking precautions and preparing for potential storm impacts with a path still uncertain.

(NHC) At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 79.8 West. Ian is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the northwest at a similar forward speed is expected later today, followed by a north-northwestward motion on Monday and a northward motion on Tuesday with a slightly slower forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is forecast to pass well southwest of Jamaica today, and pass near or west of the Cayman Islands early Monday. Ian will then move near or over western Cuba Monday night and early Tuesday and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. (more)

There is no cause for alarm, but with many new Florida residents’ officials are more firmly emphasizing preparation.  Several FL Civilian Emergency Response Teams (CERT) are now preparing, as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency – releasing additional responding resources. Take this storm seriously, but do not be alarmed; instead, take proactive steps to safeguard yourself and your family.

The westward storm movement has added one or two days to the projected U.S. landfall.

Proactively, do all your laundry.  Bleach sanitize and air dry all your water storage containers including the bathtub, today.  Do not panic if you cannot find bottled water. You can clean, sanitize and put a fresh garbage bag inside any trash can(s), then fill it/them with water from the shower.  This is an old school FL cracker way to prepare for water shortages that I still do every time.  Works like a charm.  You can also manually flush toilets with buckets of water.

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National Hurricane Center Data Here – After two years of relatively uneventful hurricane activity, and with two years of massive migration into the state since the COVID pandemic, there are millions of people potentially going to experience their first hurricane.  Thus, Florida emergency officials are being proactive in their alerts.

There is no cause for alarm, but the unspoken motive for officials to more firmly emphasize preparation is related to this ‘new resident’ dynamic. In the background several FL Civilian Emergency Response Teams (CERT) are now preparing.  Due to the confluence of events, all are is taking this storm seriously.

TD #9 is now Tropical Storm Ian, soon to be Hurricane Ian. – “At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 75.2 West. Ian is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest is forecast on Sunday, followed by a north-northwestward turn on Monday and a northward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is forecast to move across the central Caribbean Sea today, pass southwest of Jamaica on Sunday, and pass near or over the Cayman Islands Sunday night and early Monday. Ian will then approach western Cuba late Monday and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.” (link)

The general forecast path has not changed much in the past 12 hours, but the timeline has slowed as the storm slowly gathers strength.  We are now likely looking at a Wednesday night landfall (projected).  There is a very wide cone of uncertainty and also more time to prepare.

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Tropical Depression #9 has Florida officials paying attention as the storm is forecast to become a major hurricane early next week (Monday/Tuesday) in the Gulf of Mexico near Florida’s west coast.   [National Hurricane Center Advisory] In the background several Civilian Emergency Response Teams (CERT) have been activated.  Due to the confluence of events, everyone is taking this storm very seriously.

After two years of relatively uneventful hurricane activity, and with two years of massive migration into the state since the COVID pandemic, there are millions of people potentially going to experience their first hurricane.  Thus, Florida emergency officials are being proactive in their alerts.

(NHC) – At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 71.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward motion is expected to begin tonight and continue through Saturday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north-northwest on Sunday and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is forecast to move across the central Caribbean Sea through Saturday, pass south of Jamaica on Saturday night and Sunday, and approach the Cayman Islands on Sunday night and early Monday. (more)

With this much advanced notice residents along the west coast of Florida should begin reviewing their prior supplies and updating their hurricane preparations.  Much could change over the next 72-hours, but a review of supplies and locating stored material is a prudent approach.

Check your hurricane supplies of shelf-stable food, water, medicine and don’t forget pets.  Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.  Everything is replaceable, except you and your family.  We have a lot of Treepers in the path of this storm. If you need assistance, use the comments section of any ‘Update thread’ to reach out, or use the email address in the upper right of the site.

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Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear gave a terrible update about the devastation in the aftermath of the horrific tornadoes that hit overnight Friday into Saturday morning.  According to the Governor, more than 70 are dead in a candle factory alone in Mayfield, and the death toll is expected to continue climbing as the list of missing people throughout the state is too long to fathom.

An official death count has not been released, but Beshear, appearing on CNN’s State of the Union, said at least 80 Kentuckians were feared dead with that number expected to rise. “I know we’ve lost more than 80 Kentuckians. That number is going to exceed more than 100,” he said. “This is the deadliest tornado event we’ve ever had.” WATCH:

Additional deaths have been reported outside of Kentucky including six at an Amazon warehouse in Illinois, four in Tennessee, two in Arkansas and two in Missouri.  More drone footage of the devastation was released earlier today. [See Below]

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The town of Mayfield, Kentucky has been absolutely devastated by at least one of several tornadoes that tore through six states overnight.  The video footage of the area shows widespread devastation, and the Kentucky governor is now reporting at least 70 people have been killed.

All Treepers in the region please check in and let us know how y’all are doing.  Our prayers are with everyone who was in the path of this massive storm system.  There are resources coming from all over the Southeast and Midwest into the region.  The images are jaw-dropping.

(Reuters) – A devastating swarm of tornadoes ripped through six U.S. states, killing more than 70 people in Kentucky and leaving a trail of destroyed homes and businesses along a path that stretched more than 200 miles, officials said on Saturday.

Dozens were feared dead at a candle factory in western Kentucky where about 110 people were working when a powerful tornado ripped through the facility late on Friday, causing the roof to cave in.  VIDEO:

Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear said 40 of the 110 workers had been rescued from the factory so far. “The level of devastation is unlike anything that I have ever seen,” Beshear said of the damage caused by the collection of twisters, with the primary tornado traveling more than 227 miles (365 km) across his state.

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