After federal authorities raided seven chicken processing facilities in Mississippi last week evidence is now surfacing (within probable cause affidavits – full pdf below) of willful and intentional illegal hiring practices.  But don’t look for all the employers to be prosecuted.
The Washington Post has an excellent outline of the seven facilities citing dozens of instances where evidence shows each company knew they were hiring people who were not legally eligible for work.
In a surprising number of cases the illegal employees were arrested by Border Patrol in California, Texas, New Mexico and Arizona and released on electronic-monitoring programs, including ankle bracelets, to await court dates.
According to the affidavits federal authorities tracked the GPS locators on some of the employees and found they were illegally working in all of the facilities.  During interviews with the workers they stated how friends and family members in Mexico and Guatemala told them where to go for work in Mississippi.
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If you needed any empirical evidence to prove the doomsday proclamations by the financial pundits are false claims, just look at the July consumer spending results. July spending more than doubled expectations.
July results were +0.7 percent, against the economic forecast of +.03 percent.   Consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. GDP and overall economy. Doesn’t exactly sound like Main Street is on the precipice of a recession. Oh my.

Average wage growth remains +3.5% year-over-year.  The growth of overall income for American workers exceeds +5.4 percent year-over-year.  Unemployment is a low 3.6% and U.S. consumer inflation remains low at 1.4 percent.  Meaning: the middle-class has more disposable income to save or SPEND; and that’s what is happening….

• Reminder #1: Consumer spending is two-thirds of the U.S. economy.
• Reminder #2: We consume more than 80 percent of our own production (products created in USA).  We do not rely on exports.
• Reminder #3: Because of #1 and #2, the “Main Street” U.S. economy is self sustaining -much stronger- and more protected from the negative impacts on the global economy.
• Reminder #4: Who/What is at risk from global contraction? The Wall Street economy (compromised primarily of multinationals).  What is not at risk, the Main St economy.
• Reminder #5:  Because of #3 and #4, Wall Street can drop while Main Street thrives.

This is the fundamental disconnect. These Main Street results, this dynamic, is the space between two economic engines that CTH has been describing for three years.  The investment class on Wall Street can go through pain, while the middle-class on Main Street thrive.  We are in the space between.
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Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appears (in studio) on CNBC to discuss the current state of the U.S. economy, the ongoing issues with communist China, the ‘next step’ trade tariffs and the situation in Hong Kong.

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White House trade and manufacturing policy advisor Peter Navarro appears on Fox News to discuss the status of the U.S-China trade negotiations and the reason for a USTR delay on some product tariffs.
Peter Navarro confirms what we noted from the office of USTR Robert Lighthizer yesterday.  On December 15th “the tariffs will go on.”   While the statement flies over the head of Stuart Varney, Navarro confirms the “next step” process that Lighthizer implied.

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More below
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Early on Tuesday United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer announced the modification of “next step” tariffs on Chinese products.  [See Here] “Products in this group include, for example, cell phones, laptop computers, video game consoles, certain toys, computer monitors, and certain items of footwear and clothing.”

President Trump responded to the delay/modification when questioned in New Jersey.  President Trump noted a “very productive” phone call between Lighthizer and Vice-Premier Liu He of China:

[Transcript Segment] – […] Q Why did you make the decision on the tariffs, to delay the implementation of the tariffs?
THE PRESIDENT: Only to help, I think, a lot of different groups of people. And we had a very good talk yesterday with China — a very, very productive call. I think they want to do something. I think they’d like to do something dramatic. I was not sure whether or not they wanted to wait until a Democrat has a chance to get in. Hopefully that’s not going to happen because the economy would go to hell in a handbasket very fast.

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Those who could not see this coming are those who just don’t pay attention to how President Trump operates the geopolitical influence of economics.  This is Trumpian.
U.S. President Donald Trump and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson are walking their respective trade teams through a process to deliver a U.S-U.K trade deal on the day after a no-deal Brexit is scheduled to happen October 31st.  An interim trade agreement that goes into effect November 1st 2019 is pure Donald Trump win/win deal-making.

President Trump supports the nationalistic position, purposes and intents of Brexit. PM Johnson has promised to deliver Brexit by the mandatory date of October 31st.  One of the benefits, and also concerns amid the political left in the U.K, surrounds the economic impacts.  President Trump and PM Johnson would counter all those concerns with the announcement of an agreement for an interim bilateral trade deal ahead of Brexit.
This strategic approach, a deal that delivers both the Brexit result and the economic stability to offset any Brexit downside concerns, was the original idea that President Trump proposed to Theresa May two years ago.

LONDON (Reuters) – Britain and the United States are discussing a partial trade accord that could take effect on Nov. 1, the day after Britain is due to leave the European Union, a senior Trump administration official said on Tuesday.

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The situation in Hong Kong is a geopolitical dynamic that will likely become much more volatile in the next few weeks, months and/or years.  One constant in an ever-changing universe is how the UniParty in DC will attempt to drag the U.S. into the issues.

First, Hong Kong is China.  Whether a generation of people look back with regret to the time when Great Britain ceded the territory to Beijing is irrelevant.  China has, and will have, full control over Hong Kong; and that’s the way it is.  This will not be reversed.
Any effort for the people within Hong Kong to reverse the situation and escape the clutches of oppressive communism while retaining their liberty will only lead to massive bloodshed.
Unfortunately for Hong Kong, as President Trump decouples the U.S. economy from the duplicitous communist Chinese enterprise, Beijing will grasp more control over the heavily Western-influenced economic strata in/around Hong Kong.
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President Trump travels to Pittsburgh, PA, today to tour the Shell cracker plant and deliver remarks on “America’s Energy Dominance and Manufacturing Revival.” The anticipated start time is 2:10pm EST. [Update – Video Added]

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First rule in geopolitics, it’s always about the economics.  Second rule in geopolitics: refer to rule #1.    Understanding this basic truism is the key to understand how President Trump is able to be so effective.  There are trillions at stake, and infinite interests.

“Economic security is national security.” ~President Trump

All politics circles back to the underlying economics; whether it is an individual financial self-interest for a specific politician, or whether it is a larger financial interest for a group or even a nation.  Everything is always about the money, and that essential truth is why Donald Trump is so uniquely qualified, influential and stunningly effective. Today:

(VIA CBC) The United States would “enthusiastically” support a no-deal Brexit if that is what the British government decided to do, U.S. national security adviser John Bolton told reporters on Monday.
[…]  As the United Kingdom prepares to leave the European Union on Oct. 31, its biggest geopolitical shift since the Second World War, many diplomats expect London to become increasingly reliant on the United States.
“If that’s the decision of the British government we will support it enthusiastically, and that’s what I’m trying to convey. We’re with you, we’re with you,” said Bolton, in London for two days of talks with British officials. The U.S. administration is seeking an improved U.S.-British relationship with Prime Minister Boris Johnson after sometimes tense ties between Donald Trump and Johnson’s predecessor, Theresa May.

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The White House has announced the Trump administration will enforce long-standing immigration laws that require entrants to be economically self-sufficient and limits public welfare benefits.   An entry alien who is -or becomes- dependent on public welfare assistance, is known as a “public charge”.   Aliens will be barred from entering the United States if they are deemed likely to become public charges, or welfare dependent.
These immigration rules have been in place for over 100 years, and generally were strictly enforced until the last 25 years.  The Trump administration is re-enforcing the rules.

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The enforcement action will have a direct bearing on the current immigration process as most border arrivals are economic migrants manipulating asylum claims.  Immigration based on self-sufficiency has been U.S. law for generations.
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