When Joe Biden took to the microphones in October to announce, “a series of public and private commitments to move more goods faster, and strengthen the resiliency of our supply chains, by moving towards 24/7 operations at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach,” the supply chain objective was to increase the productivity of the ports.  However, data released for November [SEE HERE] and now December, show exactly the opposite.

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg visited both ports recently.  Both ports, along with Oakland, also made the arriving ships remain further offshore than when the October announcement was made.  They are hiding the ships.

For some unknown reason the Port of Los Angeles (POLA) has delayed reporting of December; but the Port of Long Beach (POLB) just released their data {LINK}.  What the statistics show is that less cargo is being handled now, than it was when the 24/7 port operations announcement was made:

The purpose of telling the ships to await their port time in a queue farther offshore is transparent.  The Biden administration wants to give the illusion they eliminated the bottleneck of container ships.   Out of sight is out of mind.

Operation ‘Hide the Ships’ allows the administration to make claims about port efficiencies and increased productivity that are abjectly false.  The data from the two months after the announcement shows less container offloading and onloading happened in November and December than happened in the prior month of October when the new initiatives were announced.

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Perhaps the mainstream media is starting to wake up.  NBC is now reporting that cross-border auto parts and food shipments may start being disrupted as the trucker vaccine mandate begins.  Approximately 60 to 75% of all U.S. truckers are not vaccinated.  The cross-border vaccine mandate for American truckers begins January 22nd as part of the Dept of Homeland Security protocol.

In October DHS announced:

…”beginning in early January 2022, DHS will require that all inbound foreign national travelers crossing U.S. land or ferry POEs – whether for essential or non-essential reasons – be fully vaccinated for COVID-19 and provide related proof of vaccination. This approach will provide ample time for essential travelers such as truckers, students, and healthcare workers to get vaccinated.” (link)

The Canadian trucker vaccine mandate began January 15th, the U.S. mandate begins this weekend, January 22nd.  Given the scale of out of season fresh fruit and vegetable shipments from South and Central America, as well as Mexico, we can anticipate serious issues in the food supply chain.  The NBC article highlights trade with Canada, but that’s miniscule when compared to the trade we get from Mexico.

(Via NBC) – […] The U.S. mandate, announced in October, requires all essential foreign travelers, including truck drivers, who cross U.S. land borders to be fully vaccinated. Essential nonresident travelers had been able to enter the U.S. during the pandemic regardless of their vaccination status, in part so as not to disrupt trade and to give them more time to get vaccinated.

The forthcoming mandate follows one that went into effect in Canada last week that prohibits unvaccinated truckers from crossing into Canada from the U.S.

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We have talked about this quite a bit. {Go Deep} I’m not sure how this attempted needle threading is going to work out in the longer term. The announcement has come as a surprise to the Canadian trucking industry.

Apparently fearing the economic consequences, the Canadian government has dropped the vaccination requirement for Canadian truck drivers, and instructed border officials to permit unvaccinated Canadian truckers to cross the border.

The vaccine mandate for cross border truckers was scheduled to begin in a few days, January 15th.  However, the Canadian vaccination rule for U.S. truckers will remain in place.

MONTREAL — The federal government is backing down from its vaccine mandate for Canadian truckers three days before it was set to take effect.  Ottawa announced in mid-November that truck drivers crossing into Canada would need to be fully vaccinated by this Saturday.

But on Wednesday evening Canada Border Services Agency spokeswoman Rebecca Purdy told The Canadian Press that Canadian big-riggers will not have to quarantine if they are unvaccinated or have received only one dose.

[…] The new rule will still take effect for American truckers, who will be turned away at the border unless they’ve been inoculated starting this weekend. (read more)

How the hell can Canada justify dropping the vaxx mandate for Canadian truck drivers, but not for U.S. inbound shipments?  Are they preparing for a massive amount of rig switching at the border?   Good grief, what a mess.

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The empty shelf problems in/around DC last weekend were mostly due to regional weather and employment issues.  However, the snapshot represents an example of how people react to their first encounter.  The conditions in the video represent a worst case scenario for those who have been watching the supply chain issue coming over the horizon. {Go Deep}

I doubt our average 2022 result will be this bad overall, however, there are areas where this might be the status.  For most people outside urban areas, this severity of a food store shortage is unlikely, unless the federal government gets involved.  If the federal government intervenes, this will be more common.

We know from prior examples, if these types of conditions were to last for just 72 hours across every store in a metropolitan region, you would see a level of panic begin.  Civic stability remains relatively stable for 72 hours (3 days).  However, if these conditions are persistent for more than 3 days, the general mindset of the population changes quickly.  Things rapidly deteriorate.  After three days, all reference points for civic norms are gone.

Those who remember Miami-Dade, specifically the Homestead region, in the aftermath of hurricane Andrew have a solid reference for what happens.  New Orleans after hurricane Katrina was a lesser, albeit more public version.   Hunger, fear and desperation are not a good combination.

{Background on Larger Issues HERE}

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The snowball effect of cumulative inflation is going to be on display tomorrow when the BLS inflation data from December is released.  We have previously discussed the unavoidable price increases as noted within the November data Here, and within the producer price data Here.

While the data being released tomorrow is backward looking, we are in the eye of the inflation storm right now.  The consumer prices at end of January and through February are all reflecting new purchase order prices and contract prices to wholesalers, buyers and retailers.   As a result, the December reports will be the precursor to what will be much more damaging data in Feb and March.

White House spokesperson Jen Psaki began trying to get ahead of the consumer price release with a short briefing to the traveling press pool earlier today.  A short audio-only soundbite reflects the political problem the White House knows they will soon be dealing with. LISTEN:

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BUMPED by request. Unfortunately, there is a lot of wrong information being discussed and shared.  Even reputable regional media are giving inaccurate information, making wrong interpretations {LINK}, and generally getting the explanations wrong.  Additionally, there’s general misinterpretations of ordinary outages based on the day of the week (Sunday) and bad weather in the Northeast {ex Twitter Thread}.

All of these #BidensEmptyShelves assumptions, which are being heightened by increased attention and social media, are leading to confusion.

An empty retail shelf or case for a 24, 36 to 48-hour period is not, I repeat, NOT, part of a systemic supply chain disruption.  Those are mostly location and regional specific out of stock situations caused by localized events, weather and employee shortages.

What CTH has been describing for the past several months is NOT what is noted above.  What we have been describing is a long term supply chain crisis that will slowly unfold over a period of about a week or two, and then remain a problem over time, for a period of 6+ months. {GO DEEP}

The thirteen bullet points below are the issues we will first notice as the general food supply chain begins to show signs of that type of vulnerability.  This outline explains why it is happening and how long it can be expected.

In the previous October, November and December warnings, we emphasized preparation and counted down the 90-day window.  Now, as we enter the final two weeks before mid/late January, the date of our original prediction, it appears that some media are starting to catch up, and the larger public is starting to notice.

Feel free to note in the comments section what is happening in your area.  Hopefully, most of us are much better positioned than the average person who has not been following this as closely over the past several months.

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Once you see the strings on the marionettes, you can never return to that time in the performance when you did not see them.  I have often repeated this phrase specifically as it pertains to political motives and the intents of the professionally republican, the DeceptiCons.

Late December, the New York Times reported {LINK} that South Dakota Senator John Thune, the heir apparent to Senate Leader Mitch McConnell, was considering retiring because the Trump influence, the MAGA base, was not in alignment with his corporate and Wall Street donor class worldview.

Those who have watched closely know Senator Mitch McConnell has positioned Senator Thune to take over in the Senate (zipper problems not withstanding).  The Machiavellian purpose of the positioning is to put Thune in place as a line of defense to protect the interest of the political establishment and the aligned Fourth Branch of Government.

Now, follow this sequence closely….

Yesterday, the New York Times announced that Thune was indeed going to run for reelection {LINK}. “Senator John Thune of South Dakota, the second-ranking Senate Republican, announced on Saturday that he would seek re-election, after an aggressive lobbying campaign by colleagues prompted him to put aside concerns about the future of his party and pursue a fourth term.”

Today, the usually invisible other Senator from South Dakota, Senator Mike Rounds, appears on ABC This Week with George Stephanopoulos, to undermine Donald Trump and say the former president “could be prosecuted” for his involvement in the J6 terrorist attack “if the DOJ has evidence.”

I am prompting the remarks from Mike Rounds below.  WATCH:

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Things that seem disconnected but aren’t.  The thirteen bullet points below are the issues we will first notice as the general food supply chain begins show signs of vulnerability.  This outline explains why it is happening and how long it can be expected.

In the previous October, November and December warnings we emphasized preparation and counted down the 90-day window.  Now, as we enter the final two weeks before mid/late January, the date of our original prediction, it appears that some media are starting to catch up and the larger public is starting to notice.   [NOTE: We nailed the timeline almost to the week]

Feel free to note in the comments section what is happening in your area.  Hopefully, most of us are much better positioned than the average person who has not been following this as closely over the past several months.

Initial food instability signs in the supply chain.  Things to look for: 

(1) A shortage of processed potatoes (frozen specifically).

And/Or a shortage of the ancillary products that are derivates of, or normally include, potatoes.

(2) A larger than usual footprint of turkey in the supermarket (last line of protein).

(3) A noticeable increase in the price of citrus products.

(4) A sparse distribution of foodstuffs that rely on flavorings.

(5) The absence of non-seasonal products.

(6) Little to no price difference on the organic comparable (diff supply chain)

(7) Unusual country of origin for fresh product type.

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The U.S. government does not operate in a vacuum without knowledge of what is happening and a solid perspective on what is likely to happen.  Whether they listen to the commonsense advisors, or whether the control officers intentionally keep counter positions away from the principle, is another matter; however, the officials generally know what is most likely to happen.

The White House put Port Envoy John D. Porcari, who is also intricately involved in the supply chain taskforce, on the podium today to discuss supply chain issues.   The full video of his remarks is posted below, but my spidey sense is telling me they know what we know, and they are starting to prepare for what will ultimately become impossible to ignore.  WATCH:

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It’s not just a port issue, as we have discussed on these pages, the interventionist policies and regulations from the people creating the COVID response (writ large) have been fubar from the beginning. {Go Deep} When they shut down the restaurants and hospitality sector (2020 lockdowns), the advisors and bureaucrats triggered a cascading series of events inside the food supply chain.

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We said it was happening {Go Deep}, and it is.  Last month CTH put the preparation window at 60 days +/- depending on region.  That window is now around 30 days before the next spike in inflation shows up from cumulative costs snowballing throughout the supply chain. The “producer price index” is essentially the tracking of wholesale prices at three stages: Origination (commodity), Intermediate and Final.

The final product inflation rate in July (reported in August) was alarming at 7.8%. However, we warned it would get worse. The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) then released stunning price data for October [DATA Here], showing an even more dramatic 8.6% price increase in final demand. More intense warnings shared.

Today, we get the November BLS Result [DATA Here], and unfortunately the results are showing what was expected.  The cumulative costs of massive increases in energy prices are building into the supply at an astonishing rate.  The November data shows a rate of wholesale final goods inflation at 9.6%, the largest single month comparative rate increase in history.

The bureau even went back and revised/increased the August price index from 7.8 to 8.4 percent, and revised/increased the October figure from 8.6 to 8.8 percent.  The average monthly price increase is almost a full percent… every month.  It looks like the BLS backward revisions are an attempt to smooth down the rate of increase.

(BLS) – “The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.8 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.6 percent in each of the 3 prior months. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index rose 9.6 percent for the 12 months ended in November, the largest advance since 12-month data were first calculated in November 2010.” (more)

I modified Table A (final demand product pricing), taking out some of the noise to make it a little easier to see the big picture of what is happening.

When you see the wholesale level of prices almost double the increase in consumer level inflation rate, you can predict that consumer prices will likely go even higher.  Future finished goods, at a retail level, will carry the current wholesale price increase.

Stuff costs a lot now… and because the inbound stuff to make the finished goods is still climbing in price…. stuff is about to cost even more.   You can see this in the inflation rate of intermediate goods which I have highlighted below.

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